QUOTE(IP Newcomer @ Feb 7 2005, 02:36 PM)
I've just got his book "Hot Commodoties" and am half way through it. It's quite good so far, and an easy read.
Basically the book argues that commodoties will rise because:
- Shares (and bonds and Real Estate) are overvalued and won't grow
- Commodoties have been cheap so no capital has been invested
- China's industrialising and so will be a voracious consumer
- Load's of money has been created, which means inflation is due for a comeback
- Investors don't understand the market yet and so some bargains are coming
Not only that but the bull market is likely to last for a few years yet - it started in 1998 and commodity bull markets last for an average of 17 years.
There are a number of ways to invest - buying commodoties, commodity companies, funds (like Roger's own) and futures.
He then goes on to survey a number of commodity classes:
- Gold - near to fully valued (unless economy collapses) as mines opening and a community of "Gold Bug" investors
- Oil - probably near its production peak with increased demand from places like China
- Coffee and Sugar - Very undervalued at present and both have a tendency to grow quickly
- Lead - Production has dropped but demand - especially for car batteries is still growing.
There's plenty in there that I've left out.
Now - has anyone got good ideas for how a retail investor should put his money in commodoties?