http://www.haart.co.uk/properties/pricereduced.asp

26/01 - 913 from 9823 - 9.29%
28/01 - 1017 from 9865 - 10.30%
31/01 - 1062 from 9872 - 10.76%
03/02 - 1232 from 9930 - 12.41%
10/02 - 1321 from 10107 - 13.07%

These figures are not the total number of reductions, but the number of reductions in the last 7 days. So don't worry if the number decreases a bit, as long as there are still a healthy number of regular price cuts then the price direction is firmly down!

The reductions shown on the site to date are peanuts. Only takes off the last 6 months gains. Good start but we won’t be biting for a very long time will we boys. Golden number is 3.5 X Income or 10 X Rental income for professional landlords

More interested in the actual number of reductions, Justice. I believe it was back in the 600's back at the start of January. The big drops will come in time, but it takes the end of denial from all vendors to start this process.

Think Consa has been monitoring these figs, interesting indeed, If I remember correctly they were in the 400's at the beginning of Jan!

Van,

These drops are more impressive than you give credit for:

The quoted number is for House Price Reductions within the last seven days only!!
It is a rolling average. Therefor, the total number of reductions is a lot larger (600 for the first week + 700 2nd week + 900 3rd week etc)

I have been monitoring these reductions myself, and note that the reductions are not very large - typically less than 5%, so still a bit of denial lurking there. I expect that much larger reductions will be seen in the not too distant future, when the sellers realise that these meagre reductions are not enough to entice buyers back into the market.

I agree that this thread should be pinned.

CF

CF, I think I read this before, but are you *sure* this is only reductions within the last 7 days?!! Where does it tell you that??

http://www.haart.co.uk/properties/finding.asp


Paragraph at the bottom

Why not take a look at the very latest properties that have come onto the market or those that will be coming soon. If you are looking for the best value take a look at our properties that have been reduced in the last 7 days .Alternatively, see the properties that are attracting the most attention on this site. After all, if every one else is looking at them, shouldn't you?

Holy cowdung, you're right! That is impressive!

Go to the 'Finding a Property' page (See link)

http://www.haart.co.uk/properties/finding.asp

You will see there, it says:



The "Reduced" link takes you to the page you had hyperlinked in your origonal message.

Oops, can't type fast enough, jpjh beat me to it!!

CF

So.. that is roughly 1 in 10 properties that have had their prices visibly reduced in the last WEEK, not to mention any sneeky reductions from relisted properties.

End of Jan = end of denial!

Unfortunately most people's reactions to a falling price scenario will be to take their house off the market - lots of EAs are going to go broke in the next 6 months.

We need complete stagnation. No FTBs in the market.

Van,

Where/how did you get the figure for the total number of houses for sale?

937 reductions now!!

CF

CF, just enter a search and leave all the fields blank!

http://www.haart.co.uk/properties/search.asp

Now its 9824 !

I would be intersted to know what their criteria is for the "attracting the most attention" option for their searches.

This brings up results for 6922 properties out of a total of 9824??

It appears that "just one click" is all it takes!!

CF

Might as well extend this to Haarts' various brands to see how different markets are faring.

Haart: General, most of the south & midlands
Felicity J Lords: Plush London properties
Spicer McColl: London, Essex, Kent, Hartfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Norfolk, Sufolk
Bailys: East Sussex
Darlows: South Wales

Results:

Haart: 969/9837 (9.85%)
FJL: 64/780 (8.2%)
Spicer McColl: 403/3653 (11.03%)
Bailys: 9/56 (16.07%)
Darlows: 148/1940 (7.63%)

To be updated from time to time!

969 now.

988

Will we hit 4 figures??

995

I have just telephoned an estate agent in the North West on request of my sister to see if her colleague's property has sold for £135 and it has ! although I know she had to drop her price by a few thousand! I think she is very lucky to have sold it as the market is flooded around here.

I ended up chatting to the EA who wouldnt let me off the phone - every time I tried to end the call she asked me another question. Basically she frightened the hell out of me. All I wanted to know was if the property was still on the market. She kept me on the phone for 5 minutes asking how much deposit I had and who is mortgage offer with, and she could get me a better one, blah, blah, blah.

According to her property is flying off the shelves !!! and that the downturn in the market is only in London. Cant believe it myself. I have been checking rightmove co uk and there is over 250 properties for sale just in my local area with more added each day. Another EA has dozens of reduced sales and no chains. Also I have lost count of the new property thats being thrown up. There are new developments everywhere!

At lunchtime I strolled around the estate agents in Manchester town centre - every one was empty. A letting agency (who I have rented from in the past) has decided to dedicate a window to sales instead of the to lets?

Speaking to that EA actually made my skin crawl - yuk - doesnt fill me with hope when it comes to my turn!

If property is flying off the shelves, why does she have 5 minutes to spend on the phone begging you to buy?

1004 now.

I know !!!

She kept chewing my ear off - then asked for my phone number. I told her I didnt have a phone. The only way I could end the call was to give her my address so she could send info out !!!!

I'll let you know how many properties are on her books - bet she has hardly any - i mean if they are flying off the shelves !!!!

I would have given her a false address.

1004! Hooray!

1016 and rising....

This thread is excellent best evidence yet of a crash, atleast in the area covered: south.

These stats are right up to date. Shows that the recent reports of "stability" in the market by the VIs are bonkers.

Now 1017...

Now 1057

Cool thread. Worth updating every day maybe.

How about having the counter on the main HPC page for all to see before they click on a particular thread. Countdown to Armageddon! Trouble is, Haart will soon get wind of it and massage the figures. Watching supply rise is a very acurate indicator of where demand is moving--down.

1061

I know the site says these reductions are for the last 7 days but the numbers do seem to be behaving like a cumulative figure.

Of course the market could be in freefall...

No, the numbers appear to be correct. There was a dip in the number last week. Ergo not cumulative.

Slow day - 1063

Give it a few weeks and we'll have a nice little graph to plot

1070

Anyone good at mathematics to chart this or is it too soon? Seems like a spike graph to me.

Will a degree in physics do?

Looking pretty linear so far having done a quick plot, but we need a lot more data I think. Give it another week at least

Darn thought I had a monopoly on that degree.

We're almost as rare as reasonably priced properties.

1064

Does this mean 6 sold? Or have they twigged HPC.co.uk and are now manipulating the numbers cover up the alarming rise is listings for sale?

Anyone buying into this market really deserves to lose money.

"Does this mean 6 sold?"
No, remember it's only those properties who's asking price was reduced in the last 7 days. Obviously, 6 of the 1070 are more than 7 days old now. Sure it'll be back up soon.

Thanks Mr Tickle

Sorry i was in spain for a few days so probably missed quite a lot on here

Beginning of jan was 416 reductions up to 813 on the 26th jan

There was a thread discussing them somewhere and concluded that they would increase in number, but only to a level at which they will probably stabilise due to number of properties on their books, people reducing maybe 2 times in 1 week etc.
so its quite difficult to accurately monitor the true picture from this info.

all I can conclude from it is that there is a lot of reductions and that is a good indication of the HPC at early stages, which is good enough for me.

I was looking at the ratio of reductions to instructions

Hence currently there are 9865 properties on the books and 1064 reductions which gives a ratio of 9.3%

At the start of this thread the ratio was 10.76%, ie: there are proportionally less reductions on the books.

Presumably the number of reductions will go down proportionally as new instructions reflect more sensible pricing (ie: factoring in a 5-10% reduction in asking prices)

On the other hand, if these new instructions also don't sell, maybe in 6 months there will be additional reductions.

I'm not sure that its easy to make conclusions from these figures without access to more measurements than are available from the Haart website. Perhaps all that we can say is that it continues to provide succour and honey for the bears.

My friends who thought I was mad a year ago are now beginning to think I did the right thing by my STR.

Check the top post for updates.

Observationally, it seems to me that prices have still drifted downwards in January, but that properties have begun selling again. The traditional rush of new year buyers is probably more like a trickle this right now, but it is enough to throw the starving EAs a lifeline for another month or two. But prices are still being cut, there's no doubt about it. The EAs realise that they need to cut prices to get the market moving, and slowly but surely some vendors that have steadfastly held asking prices at last summer's levels are beginning to crumble. If it's overpriced, it just won't sell, but if it's a good property at an attractive price, there are still buyers out there. Something for both bulls and bears.

1089 out of 9866

Going up again after a quiet Sunday

Back of an envelope calculations:
--------------------------------------

10% of properties on Haarts' books are having price cuts advertised each week.

Taken from a random sample of 30 reduced properties, the average price reduction is approximately 3.9%.

So, at this constant rate of price cutting:

Every 10 weeks, asking prices across all properties will have fallen by 3.9%.

Extrapolate that over a year, and we will get an approximate fall of 20% in 2005.

----------------

Must stress: at current rate of price cutting.

Maybe my HPC Procrasinator estimate of -25% in 2005 won't be so far off the mark after all!

1099,

Funny how the "news" today was that there are more buyers around this week--I wonder if they mean't sellers and just made a mistake?

Now broken 1100.

Come on TTRTR KOTC and other bulls, how do you explain this thread?

Maybe its a bug in Haart's web site ?

1122

The attempted exodus moves inexorably toward the precipe!

Last week we were on 969 reductions from 9837 - 9.85%
this week we are on 1122 from 9868 - 11.37%

The rate of price-cutting is actually increasing - the best possible bear scenario.

1153

BIG JUMP today

Could somone plot this in a graph against date ;p

Now 1164!

Oh how the hell do I upload the xls graph I've got of this? It'd be nice if posters could edit it so we could get a trend line going