http://www.hussman.net/rsi/fedfundscut.htm
The chart below shows the average 6-month, 12-month and 18-month returns (annualized) following a first-time cut by the Fed. The two sets of bars on the left show the returns during periods where price to peak earnings ratios were less than 15 and in periods where the yield curve was either upward sloping or inverted. The two sets of bars on the right show both yield curve environments, but during periods where the price to peak earnings ratio was greater than 17.
summary
The strongest stock market rallies after an initial interest rate cut have occurred during periods very different than today
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