Index Value: 6,083.10
Trade Time: 8:10AM
Change: Up 82.40 (1.37%)

WHAT!!!, no black Thursday, what a supprise

Sam - concerned that your last post was deleted - what is big brother up to?

HAL

[Moderator; Not deleted, merely moved to the correct forum]

Nikkei and Hang Seng also >1%; What is going on??

Ditto, Sam. I was about to respond to that post saying I've never seen any signs of censorship! Then it just disappeared...

[Moderator; Not deleted, merely moved to the correct forum]

Thanks Mod...

Just because posters on here tell you there's gonna be stock market falls doesn't mean it's gonna happen!!

Too much time is wasted analysing SM movement on this site

HPC.co.uk not SM.co.uk

Also, for those who say the two are linked, look at the past: OK, there are issues with liquidity and sentiment, but both could happen independently of each other and have done in the past

edit or rather SMC.co.uk

Certainly, watching the market unfold minute by minute is rather pointless when it comes to predicting the future in any meaningful way. Turn on your TV, then unplug the arial. What you will see is just as random and just as useful.

Well, excuuuuse me. I rather read some interesting comments on the current volatile stock market than repetitive rhetoric on the HPC.
If you have some NEWS on the HPC, by all means post it and we'll discuss. Until then, I am happy to discuss the reasons why we have a "whiter than white" Thursday. <_<

sorry - i wasn't getting at you

It's just after the black monday and wednesday threads I cant take anymore Blackness, BLACK, BLACK, BLACK!

totally agree, although some of the posts yesterday did provide me with great amusement, particularly the ones about market manipulation

a further thought, the FTSE 100 is still 12 % of its all time high, despite having had a further 6 years worth of money piled into it - that doesn't sound like market manipulation to me

people bought stocks because they were cheap in comparison to recent weeks maybe? or most of the stocks in the FTSE have nothing to do with sub-prime lending? or the effect of the carry trade is grossly over-stated? how much of your pension payments have you borrowed from a japanese bank?

Ah, you mean to PPT? It's a conspiracy alright - a handy excuse P1ss Poor Traders

Wasn't taking any offence, mate. Have to agree that my reply came across much more agressive than intended.
To be honest, the reactive microanalysis of the stock market is not useful input to the house market analysis. It merely provides entertaining distraction, but like you say: Let's focus on the bigger picture, guys.
Have a lovely, benign Thursday

Yes, granted - It is entertaining.

I particularly like it when posters stick their neck out and make grand predictions of where the DOW or FTSE will be at the close of trading; only to be nowhere near

Well rather people sticking their neck out and getting it wrong than the rest of the 'after-event geniuses' we have around here.

"Ftse down 2% today and the dollar is up, glad I sold my stocks and put it all in dollars yesterday"

Yeah, yeah. Whatever

Seeing as the recent SM volatility has been caused by the US housing market, I think it's pretty relevant.

Maybe an an 'after event genius' is just someone who refuses to predict movement in a volatile stockmarket because they believe that it cannot be predicted.

Having said that well done on your acumen

The broader picture yes - micro-analysis no

but let's not forget it is the Housing market pulling the NYSE SM down via sub-prime banks at the moment and not the other way round

edit - and whatever your reading of the Major SMs at the moment. a recent SM 'crash' has not occurred as yet

No. An after event genius is someone who's always a genius after the event. Like me coming on here the day after the FA cup final and telling you I had £1000 quid on the winning scorecast.

Firstly, I was one of those market manipulation people yesterday, and you are right to ridicule, it was just the market is behaving strangely and I wanted to learn from other people their views on things.

Clearly it is dangerous to come up with conspiracy theories for everything you don't understand and are unlikely to ever understand, it is just I could not find the positive news that united the traders into a 1.5% swing in the DOW. I am still not aware of any significant positive news. I am not convinced about the PPT but the DOW seems very resilient to the big falls seen in the past. If the DOW survives this period of volatility I think you could easily see the FTSE and DOW break all historically record as the flow of money seems so strong.

Also as pointed out the SM and the HM are not intrinsically link, I jut believe the interest this SM volatility has caught everyone's interest this time round it is being caused by the beleaguering housing market in the US. How the stock market responds to this I am sure people are hoping to use as a gauge of the severity of things in the US and how they may pan out for us in the UK.

The last thing we want is a SM crash.In the depths of the last crash March 2003, when the FT was floundering below 3500,house prices went ballistic,between 2002 and 2004 prices doubled in my area.I reckon Merv couldn't believe his luck when the correction began before the last MPC meeting.Thank God for that I wont be embarassed holding rates,I can print another 100K on my property portfolio,far more important than the the salary I get for being Governor.

Exactly - who sits there feeling smug when there is turbulance in th SMs? Property investors, that's who. Go to any bull site and they gloat like mad when the SM is reeling. There is a lot of cash out there at the moment. We want it drwan away from property, not attrcated to property IMHO.

I have a question.

Which type of Investor is selling when the Markets go into the red, and the type of Investor who buys pushing the Markets back into the green ?

Hi there

I assure you I wasn't targetting you personally but the general flurry of comments about a meltdown, followed by disbelief when it didn't happen. There may be a PPT, I have no idea, but would be sceptical as to its ability to stop a plunge if everyone wanted to sell at once. The volume of money needed to prop up the market would be huge.

Of course the unusual moves of any market will attract attention, however, if you watch markets day in day out you soon get to know how they work. The amusement comes from the people who don't watch the markets making exasperated comments because it doesn' do what they want.


The last couple of weeks have provided good opportunities both up and down. When we started falling the first time I posted that the market should be bought at 6000 with a tight stop. The lowest the market went was 5991. That was just basic charting on my part but proved a good risk reward opportunity.

In terms of good news, maybe the news just wasn't as bad as at first thought?

I don't see a SM crash or a recession being good for hpc as was proved between 2000 and now. The opposite in fact. The US housing market is in trouble because the economy has been strong enough to raise IRs which has put pressure on those who have over-borrowed. Hopefully the same will happen here. If there is a credit crunch to help it then so much the better.

As to the site in general, I think the last couple of weeks have let it down a bit as a few people seem to have wanted global meltdown rather than lower house prices.

Whilst there are lots of interesting posts on here, my main reason for calling in is that I would like to buy an average house at a historically average price.

No offence taken, I personally come to this site because people post in a way I would want and expect them to.

Certainly a stock market crash in this country, depending on the state of the pound, could lead to rate cuts at a time when we need them to be increased. Our housing correction has not started and may not if this happen! So I am with you in not hoping for a crash, I have just been intrigued how the market (DOW) has behaved on many occasion recently.

As you state we are off all time highs for the FTSE and when the markets can shrug this sort of news off with what can only be described as a minor blip, I get the feeling there may only be one direction for them in the short term.

One of the main drivers of downward momentum in the SM at the moment is sub-prime, so SM is very relevant to HPC at the moment

ditto!

Yes but is the SM 'crashing' at the moment = no so how relevant is it?

Also if you are referring to the States when you say HPC, than that is happening irrespective of fluctuation in the DOW : The Dow maybe reacting but it's not the other way round is it - so ask yourself how relevant is the microanalysis of the DOW on a daily basis?

Answer - Not that relevant

the SM is pricing in risk as well, ie banks tightening, no more loose money flow, you are right that a crash has not happened yet but a top is building and most savvy traders will be reducing their holdings and selling strength, the volatility is great for this

FTSE closes up 2.03% 6122

VI nonsense. It's actually down 3.4% but they're not telling us.

SM seems to be very volatile lately, I suspect that means something is up. I am sure it will be war with Iran any time soon.

The dead cat landed on a trampoline.

Index Value: 6,133.20
Trade Time: 4:36PM
Change: Up 132.50 (2.21%)
Prev Close: 6,000.70
Open: 6,000.70
Day's Range: 6,000.70 - 6,133.20
52wk Range: 5,467.40 - 6,451.40

1929 anyone?

twas all in the open intertest chart, but sadly for the world, nobody is interested in open interest. They'd rather speculate, push pet theories and jerk their knees.

wasn't there a guy on here who was buying at 6007 for £100 a point with a SL at 5995?

if so he's laughing now

it was a fm called time in another thread (it was one of the over excited Black Wednesday / Thursday /Friday, 1929 here we come threads)



so a fair distance from laughing just yet but can maybe afford a hopeful smirk

Meanwhile, the Nikkei is down sharply *again* this morning. I am surprised that of all the SM's, the Nikkei seems to be taking the biggest beating at the moment which is inconvenient for me, since this is where I recently moved my entire pension fund...

^N225 Nikkei 225 (Japan) 16,643.76 0:49 -216.63 (-1.28%)

You would have thought that with the carry trade unwinding and repatriation of all that wealth, it'd be weathering the storm better than most...

Maybe people are pulling Yen out of Japan while the value is high, or having to sell shares to pay off Yen loans? The money going back there to pay off loans will just vanish into thin air, so presumably there are less Yen available to buy shares than there were a few weeks ago?

I've read the markets are up today in response to favourable merger activity. I've also heard that a glut of mergers is a good indicator of imminent trouble - anyone?

ending diagnol formed in the dow with throwover today - will decline sharp rest of day and couple of weeks