This is my first post. Hello ! Sorry it goes on for so long but I hope others can empathise with me.

What a fascinating site this is - finally I read an alternative view of what I've been seeing in the media for the past several years.

I've been living in an increasing amount of fear during this time, feeling that I will never be able to buy my first home.

After graduating in 1997, I moved to London to work. My plan was to spend about 3 to 4 years saving up a decent deposit to buy a decent flat there. What transpired was that purchase prices spiralled up faster than my ability to save a meaningful deposit. And I really tried. Despite all the temptations to spend money recklessly and fast in London I avoided it and tried to re-drect money where possible to my deposit, being the sensible sort of person I am. My salary went up considerably as I improved my job skills.

But it wasn't enough. After a period of unemployment, I abandoned London to move back to my native Warwickshire in May 2004. I'd spent a total of about £35K in rent. In retrospect it horrifies that I've lined my landlords' pockets to the tune of this amount.

I feel ashamed to say this, but I'm now 30, back living with my parents and it feels like my whole life has been "put on hold".

Recently I've gained employment again in my local area at a reasonably good salary which I'd say is above average for my area. Add 4x my income to the £20K deposit I saved and - while yes - it is enough to stretch to about £125K which would get a house in my area now - but only something modest.

This next bit might sound snobbish - but in all probability if I mortgaged to the max I'd be living around a lot of people in the same fairly average area who've never been earning the wages I have and who never bought their property by saving anywhere near what I have.

House prices have tripled overall here since 1997. Doubled since 2001.

If I'd had the same money and deposit I have now in my area 3 or 4 years ago, I would be able to buy the property I wanted without such a huge mortgage. Size doesn't matter to me - I don't want a huge house. I just want a two-bedroomed maybe terraced or preferably a semi. That's all. I'm not even bothered about having a garage, as long as I can park my car safely outside in an area where yobs won't scratch keys down the side of my car or lop off your wing mirrors. You can buy £150K + houses in these areas quite easily.

Thing is I feel so denied for so long that I'm at the stage where I want the property I buy to actually reflect the hard work and suffering I put in to save the deposit for and the salary I've earnt. I worked hard in London and built things up - I feel I deserve better than what the market is currently offering at current prices.

But the thing is, prices here still seem to be going up in my historically reasonably cheap part of Warwickshire (Rugby) - and in some cases sharply. See the following graph and look at the spike between Sep and Oct :- See Graph.

So I don't really know what or who to believe. I really want to believe that a 30% cull is coming. Sure - in London, but what about in ordinary streets with modest housing up and down the country. And what about in my particular area ?

It is an ongoing trauma which I think about every day. Every time I see a home improvement or relocation programme I switch it off. I'm still hearing radio adverts about getting into investment properties. I switch them off. Every time I hear someone telling me how lucky they were to buy in the mid '90s I want to punch them.

When is "my day" going to come ??

don't be despondent.

i'm in a very similar situation.was with what I thought would be my future wife in 99,but didn't turn out as planned.stayed with my parent for a couple of years after and whatever i had saved as a deposit was more than being eaten in price increases.it's taken me this long to save what would equate to about 10% deposit now(plus cost of re-furb),but now I intend to sit tight and watch all the BTL's squeal.it's these guys who denied me the chance of my own home 5 years ago so I'll capitalise on their downfall as best I can.they are fair game as far as I'm concerned.


join my crusade!register on landlordzone.co.uk and tell them the truth about this bubble....(see should i sell?,in rental property questions).Once they see the light we can have something to call our own.they don't realise it yet but it's the bank's that own their souls!

Bide your time. The crash is already in progress. Its just the general public hasn't cottoned on yet, and the figures haven't quiet had time to filter through.

Sit it out the next 6 months at least. Within that time you will see the crash gather pace (we might see a bounce but this is looking increasingly unlikely as FTB's like yourself want a bargain now)

All the indicators and data are all now pointing in our direction. Prices are starting to be cut. Low offers are being accepted.

No faith is required anymore on our part. Just patience waiting for that bottom.

When to buy..well wait till at least 30% is wiped off the peak. And preferably 40% or more.

It will affect the whole nation. Note everywhere generally always lags behind London a little bit. This is good for you as you can see where things are going.

if london is anything to go by thats 10-15% drop in 6 months...more to follow

If you are on a very good salary and you can put up with living with your parents then it seems sensible to bank as much as you can over say 2-3 years and then consider a purchase.

Instead of the usual bear rant that I would indulge in - I take your point. So, here is my twopenny's worth.

London always leads rises and falls. Prices in London and the South East are falling now and have been for some time.

The media have cottoned on to the house price correction. Soon the media will be full of stories of landlords selling up, re-possessions etc. and will be as happy to report the carnage as they are happy to report any disaster. Bad news is always more widely reported than good news and, for some weird reason, most people think falling house prices would be a bad thing.

The correction in 1989 took a good while to gain momentum. The housing market really is like an oil tanker. Even after the momentum provided by FTBs stretching themselves and BTL goes, the thing takes a mile or two (indeed a year or two) to slow. And getting it going the other way takes a while too - we have already reached the zenith in London and the South East and the momentum down is now beginning to build.

House prices - both up and down - are very regional.

I think you need to have a good hard look at your local property market and decide whether property is reasonably affordable for young families on average salaries. If it isn't, it will, in my opinion, come down.

Markets always overshoot. When the correction gets into full swing, it will take a long time for prices to turn again. In the last two decent crashes it took about 12 years for prices to recover.

Whilst having a lot of sympathy with your position, I would bide my time. It will take another 6 months before things become crystal clear to the whole country.

Just think, if you had bought in London a year ago and now needed desperately to move home (I know you already have) - you would probably have kissed your hard saved for deposit goodbye. Whereas, if you had bought in London 3 or 4 years ago you would still be quids in. Its all about timing. Now is not the time to buy for the first time.

Mr Lad, this is my first posting too - but felt duty bound to respond to your heartfelt concerns.
My situation is quite comical really, I bought a house in '96 for £60K in surrey (hooray) sold it in 98 for £85K (hooray) - having split with then girlfriend -moved in with my parents a short distance away as "surely prices must come down now?" The house would now fetch £230K (boo)!.

I can't really regret this mistake I can't very well turn back the clock, it's not anybody's fault except my own. So what did I do, I stayed with my parents for 2 years saved a few bob but the shame of it (I was late twenties then!). Moved out met my girlfriend shortly after (no coincidence). We still don't own a house but everythings great - I've had no financial worries for 6 years and I've had the added bonus of no punches in the face!

Have the courage of your convictions And go and rent for a bit longer- it's not all about money and boasting rights...

who was punching you in the face?

don't blame mistakes...it's circumstance!


if all had gone well I'd be sitting in a nice house worth about 400k now!(and probably a kid or two to boot!),but it wasn't meant to be...and anyway,what good is that house if the person you are going to share it with is permanently arguing with you!!!

shit happens!

I just want revenge on the people that f***ed up my plan B!

Warks Lad said ..."Every time I hear someone telling me how lucky they were to buy in the mid '90s I want to punch them"

no punches in the face for me despite buying a house in the mid '90's as I had forfeited my 'property magnate' bragging rights (see earlier post)!

There is more to life than getting the biggest mortgage you can and buying a house. I got married and bought in the 90's, wife found another bloke and we got divorced. Lost the lot at 37 years old. I am 42 now, I have a small yacht in Malaysia and about 90 grand in the bank..........how? I didn't buy or rent property in the UK, I worked overseas, stayed with my parents inbetween jobs and saved money. I now only work 8 months of the year and holiday for 4 months on my boat in Malaysia and Thailand. I have a very comfortable and happy life. I live in company paid hotels when I work in the UK and stay at my parents at the weekend. It suits me. Even if house prices crash 50% I still don't think I would buy, I just don't need a house.

A very, VERY good point. Heed the wisdom of the oracle.




Now THAT is what I call a cushty set-up. Nice one w127.

considering jet-setting myself!!!!!


my new future wife works in hooters-san francisco!

How did you lose the lot?

Surely you were entitled to 50% of the equity?

Great post. The whole housebuying thing I think ultimately boils down to a sense of security and stability. If you find that buying a house would actually compromise this, then truely you can be at peace with yourself. Don't need? Don't buy. Brilliantly simple!

warks-lad

One bit of advice would be to ignore that chart from nethouseprices if it's bothering you. The data available for October is only a subset of the likely total because not all completions have been entered yet by the land registry. If you look into the detail I bet you will see only a handful of properties listed for October and with such a small sample, the index - which is a raw arithemetic average - can be easily skewed. If most properties in that postcode are 2 beds and a big 4/5bed house happens to go through one month it makes a big difference.

If you really want to know what is going on on your area I would download all the details off nethouseprices while it is still free and put it in a spreadsheet. if you know the area really well, add in information like the number of beds, and put a ranking score on the location. Try and keep it up to date and it will be hugely valuable when/if you do decide to buy.

curiosity got the better of me...

6 registrations in CV21 3 in October

Values

149
135
160
85
450
249

so there you go. there are lies, damned lies, statistics and graphs...

Not necessarily. If there were kids, the (ex-)husband had good career prospects and the (ex-)wife not so good, she would probably be awarded the marital home in any financial settlement as well as custody of the children.

Correct! At the time I earned 45000 a year as a contractor, she was working part time so she got the lot... house and kids. Strange though how she suddenly got a full time job earning 25000 plus when the divorce settlement was through.

I have to say w127, you got right royally screwed there. This is why I would never marry, cos you run the risk of being taken to the cleaners and forced to start your life from scratch. Unfortunately though, I believe that even if you had not been married, in your situation (ie you earning, partner not very much, kids) the judge would still have awarded the house and kids to your partner (ex-wife) under current UK law. It seems there is no way whatsoever to live with someone in the UK and not run the risk of them reducing you to penury via the courts in the event of a break-up.

Correct!

Which is why the like of W127 & myself no longer live in the UK........'Go East Young Man'.

Am I right W127?

You are kind of right zzg (I have "suffered" myself from the effects of these laws).

But would it really be better the other way round ?

i.e. the maternal view: "There is no way whatsoever to live with someone and have children and not run the risk of you and the children being reduced to penury....."

By the way zz, how old are you ?

I have managed 4 1/2 years overseas now but it will come to an end for me in April this year. However as I said in my post my boss is happy that I only work for 8 months of the year in the UK ( 30 000 grand total, but working almost every weekend), after that its 40% tax and the ex-missus is entitled tto 25% of the remainder...i.e. I am working for only 45% of my gross pay, which is pointless. Might as well have 4 months holiday unpaid. I will never get on the UK property market but I will leave a debt free contented life. .......but if prices drop by 50 to 60%.....hmmmm where was that BTL article?

The Divorce laws are unfair, and a real impediment to marriage.
Too asymmetrical:
She decides to end the marriage, because her expectations are not being met in some way. What happens: She keeps the house, the kids, and maybe gets some kind of monthly alimony. He winds up in a bedsit.

Want to save time?:
Find a woman that you hate, and give her a house

LOL

Are pre-nuptual agreements legally binding in the UK ?

most are not worth the paper they're written on.

kids don't always matter either. friend of mine had to give the house to his wife because she was wasn't working for the 2 years they were married. they had no kids. strangely she started working once the divorce was finalised to cover the mortgage payments.......

What, you mean, if men were allowed to take their partners for all they were worth in the event of a break-up? No, it would simply be skewed in men's favour, rather than against them.




What?



No. If you have one drawn up, a court will ignore it COMPLETELY in the event of a divorce.



I had no idea it had gotten that bad.

well he was/is on 80k p.a. i don't know if that influenced the courts - probably did.
he got to keep the car - great!

by her own admission she just sat at home painting her toenails and having her hair done for the time that they were married - therefore had no future earning potential!
As I said no kids involved - so things seem worse than ever.

What, what ?

I only substituted male for female from your own posting earlier zzg

Classic quote about Agnets.

WM, where did I mention children?

Knowing someone who has gone through Divorce recently, he agreed to continue paying the Mortgage (interest) until his children left home as part of the settlement. The mortgage was not very much but the equity was about 200K. He would then get half the equity on the sale of the house or either party could buy the other out at any mutually agreeable time.

Analysing his situation, I think he pays arround 250 a month interest, but at least he will have a share of the long term capital growth of the marital home. (10-12 years).

I think you can get a fair (ish) deal if you are prepared to fight you case. I think there are no set rules.

The courts claim that they do not wish to permanently deny a mans capital. Just give him a good kicking in the balls.

BUY TO LET PERSPECTIVE:


Most B2L are pretty canny and the current trend is to seek out bargains - typically 1 bed flats with a vendor willing to take a low offer (can mean about 20% less that last Spring price).

Most B2L will not get burned and have plenty of emergency money to cover voids. Many B2L never get a void.

Rents are on the up according to local agents. This news will further attract B2L. I expect rental sector to grow for years to come.

B2L look at the rent due on thier actual capital outlay (example £20000 on a £80000 flat, gets about £450 pcm rent, but mortgage is only £260). Also we know we will enjoy capital growth 'somewhere down the line'.

This constant 'mopping - up' of cheap property will cause the market not to drop much further and may well reverse recent drops as FTBs get nervous that the market will pull away again.

Lets suppose B2L did pull out big time, where are they gonna put thier dosh? Certainly not pensions. Most of us have cash in Bank anyway so not wanting to put more cash in Bank. So we will simply continue with property as well as business investments.

Other NEW market drivers are;

Parents buying for kids
Lots of recent buyers are up to eyes in debt. Many of these will sell and rent so further increasing rent demand.


Lad - Im just trying to give you a more balanced view. Most people on this forum look at past market trends but for me this is a fundamental mistake as I believe the property market dynamics and drivers are completely different now.


Comparisons to dot com boom are for muppetts.

Good luck.

If a couple can agree a financial settlement amongst themselves, a court will simply rubberstamp it. Your case above sounds like an amicable break-up, where the woman has not tried to screw the man for all he's got (legally speaking). However, if it is a woman's intention to financially ruin a man (ie the divorce is hostile/acrimonious) she is perfectly capable of doing so, aided and abetted by the courts.



Whatever happened to property rights? I didn't realise we lived in a communist state where the state can seize and redistribute the individual's assets at will.

IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You didn't of course. I did. You said



i.e. the male view.

I then reversed this to say


i.e. the other way round. I also added that I have fallen foul of these laws myself, and asked you how old you were.

Clear now zzg

Apologies to everyone else, this has gone a long way off-topic

So why twist and distort what I said?




Yes, because it would be to men's advantage, not disadvantage.



So?



Crystal.

That is the answer to the question I posed. I was just trying to work out where TF it is you are coming from.

I was not twisting your words, merely expressing a different opinion. I made it clear that I had reversed what you has said. Apologies for not agreeing with absolutely every one of your off-the-cuff utterances

BTW, how old are you ? Of course I respect your anonimity and privacy, but you have an opinion on everything. Are you a teenager or very old ?

I disagree.




You did this and you threw children into the mix. It was not a straight inversion.





Doesn't everyone?

I think ZZ is the real Dr Spok "It was not a straight inversion" "the only logical answer Captain".

Seeing as we're nit picking,that should read "Mr Spock" Dr.Benjamin Spock is an American Child Psychologist.

does anyone know why pre-nups aren't upheld? what's the point of having one at all then?!

i'd also like to defend womankind and say that...

not all divorces are instigated by women

not every woman is looking to take a man to the cleaners

plenty of dads don't pay a bit to support their kids

plenty of women support their partners/husbands

peace.

funniest joke i've heard in ages

Thanks Chandellina,
my point exactly (see thread below about Dr Bubbs Anti advertising rant and you will see that you are wasting your breath defending women on here!)

There are plenty of women that stand on their own two feet man or no man.
PS I was once left in debt by a man who was prepared to let me pay for it all or risk being blacklisted for god knows how long.

Pre-nups are actually an American phenomenon which has migrated to Britain via the public consciousness, the media, coverage of divorce cases in America in the UK media, etc, but actually have no force or existence in the British legal system. Simply put, this is like expecting Estonian law to apply in England; it doesn't.





Let's not let this descend into a Battle-of-the-sexes round of mud-slinging please.

I substituted wife and kids for husband. Where did I say I had inverted it. And how can I twist your words ? They are printed above for anyone to see.

An no, not everyone has an opinion on everything. Of course not.

I have had to deal with the CSA, despite never having been married. This is the context of my opinion on this matter. What is your context zzg ?