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House Price Crash forum > Investment > Investment in general
DrBubb
THIS IS DANGEROUS

But I play this game every year. It worked last year, and i fully expect it to work again this year. I have described it, and even named names on another thread here.

I am sticking my neck out, and going to make it a spectator sport.

I suggest WATCHING this year, and maybe playing next year

- -

Notes/ Added Later:
+ I originally said: "how to make 50% in 8 weeks".
+ I have done it in a few stocks, but not in the overall portfolio.
+ The Gold price normally moves up in January. This year it bottomed in early February, so I have given my strategy more time, to end of March.

WHAT was the List? Here's what I had on it:
(note: most are Junior Mining and exploration stocks, trading Canada)

Symbol Company..... Price. ShsFD MktCp* Yr.L...Yr.H Comments
v.ACA Ashton Mining c$0.91 76.4M $57.9M $0.87-$2.06 : 214675
v.ADA Acadian Gold. c$0.19 36.8M $5.94M $0.14-$0.48 1mn oz.Reso : 1395350
v.AMS Amera Res.... c$0.67 19.7M $11.2M $0.35-$1.12 : 1607585
t.APG Apollo Gold.. c$1.15 79.5M $77.7M $0.65-$3.42 : 1538629
v.ARU Aurelian Res. c$0.90 26.0M $20.0M $0.80-$2.54 $6.5mn cash : 1487586
v.AXM Axmin Inc.... c$0.62 108.M $55.8M $0.52-$1.35 : 965134
v.BGI Birim Gldflds c$0.53 40.0M $17.7M $0.42-$1.14 : 49942
v.BM- BacTech...... c$0.38 50.0M $16.1M $0.24-$1.30 : 1648388
v.BZA Amer.Bonanza. c$0.20 30.0M $6.00M $0.14-$0.40 : 313135
CAU-- Canyon Res... us
v.CCM Canarc Res... c$0.54 57.9M $26.1M $0.49-$1.10 : 1389017
t.CZN Canadian Zinc c$0.62 69.3M $36.5M $0.51-$2.04 : 148823
v.CGP CornerstoneCp c$0.25 20.9M $4.35M $0.19-$0.95 : 1370209
v.CNU Continuum Res c$0.27 39.5M $10.7M $0.24-$1.20 : 147979
v.CMA CreamMinerals c$0.31 40.0M $10.3M $0.26-$0.90 : 1565891
v.DSP Diamondex Res c$0.88 61.4M $45.0M $0.75-$1.31 : 149539
v.DVV Dunsmuir Ven. c$0.14 xx.xM $x.xxM $0.13-$0.49 : 405767
v.DYG Dynasty Gold. c$0.39 37.7M $12.5M $0.36-$1.11 : 1443079
v.ER- Eastmain Res. c$0.57 50.0M $23.8M $0.46-$1.25 : 46376
v.EXN Excellon Res. c$0.20 130.M $21.7M $0.13-$0.31 : 48224
v.FFR Fairstar Expl c$0.15 41.2M $5.25M $0.11-$0.38 : 47142
v.ITF Freegold Vent c$0.33 xx.xM $xx.xM $0.24-$0.64 : 1539962
v.FMM Full Metal Mn c$0.48 16.0M $6.40M $0.38-$0.70 : 1747313
v.GNG GoldenGoliath c$0.25 40.0M $8.33M $0.20-$0.70 : 313144
v.GPR Great Panther c$0.39 20.0M $6.60M $0.35-$0.77 : 1563128
v.IM- Island Mtn.Gd c$.065 xx.xM $x.xxM $0.05-$0.22
v.IAU Intrepid Minl c$0.60 52.2M $31.3M $0.54-$1.43 : 49483
v.INM Intl Northair c$0.28 14.0M $3.92M $0.26-$1.29 : 103416
v.ITS Int'l Taurus. c$0.14 102.M $12.1M $0.13-$0.62 : 103417
t.MAE Miramar Mng.. c$1.56 157.M $208.M $1.11-$3.74 : 103455
v.MTX Metalax Mng.. c$0.85 xx.xM $x.xxM $0.09-$0.39 : 48603 update
v.MVG Metallic Vent c$1.70 xx.xM $xx.xM $1.45-$8.30 : xx
v.MUM Mustang Minls c$0.40 45.0M $19.1M $0.32-$1.25 : 156340
v.NDE NDT Ventures. c$0.15 40.0m $6.00M $0.13-$0.28 : 1319864
v.NSM NorthStar Mng c$0.54 27.3M $12.5M $0.44-$1.14 : 1358905
t.NSU Nevsun Mining c$1.90 80.0M $172.M $1.89-$7.70 : 47738
v.QRL Queenstake Ex c$0.47 450.M $180.M $0.38-$0.95 : 1450066
t.PFN Pacific Nwest c$0.40 40.0M $13.6M $0.40-$1.20 : 1300046
v.SXG Samex Mining. c$0.79 xx.xM $xx.xM $0.65-$1.54 : 103527
v.SGC Sunridge Gold c$0.66 22.5M $12.6M $0.60-$4.60 : 1149245
t.THT Thistle Mng.. c$0.01 600.M $15.3M $0.01-$0.41 : 147076
v.TK- Tinka Res.... c$0.29 15.0M $3.70M $0.22-$0.60 : 1370612
v.VAN Vangold Expl. c$0.24 25.0M $5.31M $0.21-$0.88 : 1540114
v.VIT Victoria Res. c$1.00 xx.xm $x.xxM $0.76-$2.30 : 47089 : Bema Grp
USGL- US Gold...... .$0.45 20.4M $9.16M $0.38-$1.85 : 5134

Want to Know MORE about Junior Companies?
This Broadcast will help: Listen to the last 20 mins./ David Morgan
Bear Goggles
Go on then, Tell us!
zzg113
Is it the Canadian tax-selling?
RRP
QUOTE(DrBubb @ Dec 31 2004, 04:52 PM)
THIS IS DANGEROUS

But I play this game every year.  It worked last year, and i fully expect it to work again this year.  I hae described it, and even named names on another thread here.

I am sticking my neck out, and going to make it a spectator sport.

I suggest WATCHING this year, and maybe playing next year

- -

WANT to know more?
*


Does it involve Weapons of Mass Destruction ?
Dicky
An even more dangerous game to play is go into a bank with a stocking over your head and a banana in your pocket and tell the cashier to fill you bag with 100K in 50 pound none consequitive notes.
trev
Get 100K from credit cards and stick it in the bookies for Man utd to beat southampton?
crystal ball
make money by printing money
oh sorry only the bank of england can do that
sorry
Another day worked and my fiat money wage has been devalued by increasing the money supply.
when will they run out of ink.
DrBubb
ZZG got it in one.

For those of you not familiar with it, perhaps I should explain:

In the US and Canada, the fiscal yearend finishes on Dec.31st. From this arises a profitable opportunity. Many investors decide to sell their losers at a loss, to lock in a tax loss (which can then be used to offset gains taken on other stocks.) This impact is that stocks that were weak, often get weaker the last 3-4 weeks of the year, as temporary selling pressure hits them.

When the year ends, this type of selling stops suddenly, and some of those who sold will buy back in, to establish a free position at a new price. These swings in buying and selling pressure can cause a big jump in the prices of small cap stocks. Let me give you an example of a stock price move from a previous year:



CMGI, an internet-related holding company, provided a nice gain of about 85% ($1.75 to $3.25) in only 3 weeks. In the case of CMGI, much of the gain was given back in February. This illustrates that is is often a good idea to take a big gain, if it materialises, within the first month or two of the new year. And of course, all the "bombed out" stocks do not rise. But a nice percentage do, and often for large amounts.

Others: ARTG :

Each year, I look for a sector which is bombed out, and has experienced a selloff from its peak. I then look for stocks in that sector whose charts I like on a longer term basis. And within that group I will study fundamentals, and choose some stocks whose charts I like, and where there is potential for a good-sized bounce.

MORE to follow
Bubble Pricker
Given that today is the 1 January 2005, isn't it now too late to buy?
DrBubb
Perhaps not.

From here, we should see the buying action.

I intend to post a summary of my trades, so the sceptics can see how it works.
FreekBear
QUOTE(DrBubb @ Dec 31 2004, 05:52 PM)
THIS IS DANGEROUS


I'd say it a lot safer than spreadbetting.
Lurker at the pleasuredome
QUOTE(DrBubb @ Jan 1 2005, 09:20 AM)
Each year, I look for a sector which is bombed out, and has experienced a selloff from its peak.  I then look for stocks in that sector whose charts I like on a longer term basis.  And within that group I will study fundamentals, and choose some stocks whose charts I like, and where there is potential for a good-sized bounce.

South African gold stocks? ohmy.gif
Van
Don't "invest" in anything you don't understand...

If you want to gamble, there are plenty of shares that will let you do it. Try Jarvis, for starters - Last month you could have bought in at 7p. Today they are back up to 30p.. That's already 400%+ - 4 bagger inside weeks! Stick that in your BTL pipe and smoke it.


disclaimer position: long on JRVS.
DrBubb
TRANSFERRED! (after 650 viewings)

I suppose it was inevitable that this thread would get transferred back to the general investment section, but it is a bit of a pity.

My purpose in starting it was to demonstrate that there can be better investments than property, especially in a falling market.

But anyway, if anyone is still interested, here's some more info:

My orginal target list of prospective tax selling TARGETS was listed here:
Link to: Gold Thread, posting no.31

What have I actually bought?
Here's a list of my BUYS: (I will update later)

ADA at $0.20, now $0.25
APG at $0.90, now $1.05
ARU at $0.88
BGI at $0.54
BZA at $0.17
CNU at $0.25
EXN at $0.18
FMM at $0.44
GNG at $0.22
GPR at $0.38
MAE at $1.37
MUM at $0.33
NDE at $0.14
NSM at $0.51, now $0.65
PFN at $0.41, now $0.48
THT at $.005
HEC at $0.52
... beating mostly, prices in the original posting

ANYONE else playing this game?
RRP
QUOTE(DrBubb @ Jan 2 2005, 09:41 PM)
TRANSFERRED!  (after 650 viewings)



What have I actually bought?
Here's a list of my BUYS:  (I will update later)

ADA at $0.20, now $0.25
APG at $0.90, now $1.05
ARU at $0.88
BGI at $0.54
BZA at $0.17
CNU at $0.25
EXN at $0.18
FMM at $0.44
GNG at $0.22
GPR at $0.38
MAE at $1.37
MUM at $0.33
NDE at $0.14
NSM at $0.51, now $0.65
PFN at $0.41, now $0.48
THT at $.005
HEC at $0.52
... beating mostly, prices in the original posting

ANYONE else playing this game?
*



I have probably missed the boat now. Never bought shares before, out of interest, can anybody recommend a broker for the the first time punters.
DrBubb
RRP,
Your:
" can anybody recommend a broker for the the first time punters?"

I dont think this game is for first time punters, with little experience in share investing. I would recommend "paper trading". This means selecting a handful of stocks from my list, and following them. The best way to do this, is to actually record Buy and Sell prices, and also workout the whole transaction that you "would" have done, including the commissions.

I always buy a "package" of several when i play this game, because I reckon that some will of these small companies will get into trouble, and if I only pick one, I may pick the wrong one.

Paper experience is better than no experience. If you do it seriously, you will be ready for the next time.
RRP
QUOTE(DrBubb @ Jan 6 2005, 08:42 AM)
Paper experience is better than no experience.  If you do it seriously, you will be ready for the next time.
*



OK, will take that on board.
DrBubb
"I have probably missed the boat now. "

NO. the boat hasnt been missed.
The drop in gold (so far), has restrained these small cap shares from picking up.
I still believe a move will come. And they have moved sideways, despite lower
large cap gold shares
George
QUOTE(Van @ Jan 2 2005, 01:02 PM)
Don't "invest" in anything you don't understand...

If you want to gamble, there are plenty of shares that will let you do it. Try Jarvis, for starters - Last month you could have bought in at 7p. Today they are back up to 30p.. That's already 400%+ - 4 bagger inside weeks! Stick that in your BTL pipe and smoke it.
disclaimer position: long on JRVS.
*



Yea JRVS went nuts.
Yonmon
Dr B
I understand you wanting to deter newbies from losing their shirts, but personally I think paper trading doesn't teach you much. At the end of the day I believe you learn from risking money and making losses in a way you never can from paper trading.
Of course, you should still do your research before risking your money, and don't speculate on what you don't understand. I don't understand Canadian Mining stocks yet, so they aren't for me at this time.
DrBubb
sure.
But I dont think that this is an appropriate first investment for anyone.

Id hate to think my expected "good idea" would lose money for someone
just because they lack experince in buying and selling
DrBubb
EIGHT WEEKS into this year... and what?

Most positions are nicely in profit.
Several are up more than 50%

Hasnt quite lived up to my expectations BECAUSE the Gold rally was slow in coming. Gold didnt bottom until early Feb., and most of these stocks move with thegold price.

Thus, Im going to request another month, into end of March,before I measure the overall result.

Here are a few that are motoring:

CZN, bot at $.53, sold at $.82 ................ +54.7%
MUM, bot at $.33, closed today near $.50 +51.5%

also, sold some days ago
VAN, bot at $.25, sold at $.44 average..... +76.0%

I am already recirculating: investing profits from above in laggards
DrBubb
Meantime, Interpid (v.IAU) reports Bonanza grades:

Latest Drilling and Exploration Work at Casposo
Reveals High Grade Silver and
New Gold-Bearing Veins

February 9, 2005: Intrepid Commits to Advance Casposo High Grade Gold Project...

January 20, 2005: High Grade Gold and Silver Results Confirm Consistency of Kamila Deposit...

January 14, 2005: Intrepid Announces Positive Gold Recovery Results from Casposo...
Toronto, Ontario, March 4th, 2005 - Intrepid Minerals Corporation (TSX:IAU) released today results of the final eight holes designed to complement the block modeling of the Kamila deposit at Casposo. Several of these holes were designed to test possible extensions of the mineral resource within the Kamila pit (Table 1). Also, several deep holes tested the silver-rich feeder zones of the Aztec and Inca veins. This program concludes 1660 metres of drilling at Kamila for the first quarter of 2005.

The silver-rich feeders are contained within 2 to 6 metre wide quartz veins and stockworks 150 metres (Inca Vein) to 250 metres (Aztec Vein) below surface. The veins assay up to 1100g/t (32 oz/ton) silver over 3 metres in the Inca vein and 1530g/t (45 oz/t) silver over 1 metre in the Aztec vein.

Intrepid geologists have also discovered additional gold-bearing veins at surface on the fringe area of the proposed Kamila pit. These veins assay up to 9g/t gold over 0.75 metres and may represent a new target to be developed within the Kamila pit and below the footwall of the Inca vein
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