QUOTE(Charlie The Tramp @ Jan 5 2005, 08:01 PM)
Yes some people have been lucky to win the million quickly, but remember bonds are a gamble and your chances are better in the long term. Look at the large prize winners the majority are the big bond holders.
Your chances are not better in the long term, they're exactly the same as during your first month, you've just played a few more games.
You chances DO go up by having more invested and thus by maxxing out at 30K.
Think of it this way:
£1 = 24,000 to 1 at winning something
£30K = 24,000 to 30,000 chance at winning something. So, very likely win something, you should win 1.25 times a month, or 15 times a year. Which is close to Masked tulip's 17x. UndeservingRich had 18 wins.... Both lucky this year.
So, for each win you have a 1 in 1019098 (in oct 2004) chance at winning the jackpot.
So, in month one, you have as many chances at winning as you do in month 230, because they are unrelated events/draws. The likelyhood is as slim, you've just played a few more rounds.
Per draw/month, your chances are = Attempts.P(Win).P(JackPot)
£1 = 1/ 24 458 352 000 (1/24 billion)
£30000 = 1/ 815 278 (less than 1 in a million), per draw.
Note: national lottery gives you 1/ 282 475 249 (1 in 282 million) at having 6 matches.
Three matches are 1 / 117649, about 7.5x better than winning the jackpot on premium bonds. I know where to put my money

Anyone who's ever played roulette will know 1/36 is quite a slim chance, worse odds are pretty unreal.