http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24crb
impending collapse or minor hiccup?
Full Version: Commodities Plunge 5% In 2 Days!
QUOTE(domo @ Jan 4 2007, 09:27 PM) [snapback]518689[/snapback]
well Last year I was telling everyone on the Deflationary K winter Thesis thread that we faced a big Bear Market in EVERYTHING including commodities and gold. once the free money aka Yen carry had been exhausted. The GBP/JPY chart has made a brutal reversal if it continues the the bear may have begun. see the
QUOTE(jonpo @ Feb 11 2006, 10:21 PM) [snapback]296294[/snapback]
The biggest bull market in history is the one we have just had. lets face it 2005 nearly EVERYTHING went up copper gold sugar coffee Orange juice, emerging markets, EuroEquities CAC DAX AEX FTSE100 FTSE 200 Russel 2000 silver platinum zinc, Oil, gas petrol houses. everything you name it its going up, OK maybe not the DOW but that has been a lame duck sell for so long its not even funny. see my posts on the "gold down by 20$ today" no sh1t sherlock. we are looking at the biggest most widespread bear market in history. 5year bonds look good value to me. other than that the time will come some time this year to sell everything.
If you want proof of this theory look at the 2 year chart of the Japanese Yen or "free money" and note carefully the HUGE inverse correlation nearly every market has with the "Free money"
crazy gold bear. sharpening claws.
The fundamentals for rising energy prices remain as strong as ever. The current sell-off in oil is "narrow minded", because it is focused on warm weather in the U.S., which is a temporary phenonemon, and in any event does not affect global demand for oil in any material way. The warm weather was probably also a bit of a catalyst to flush speculative positions by hedge funds out of the market. When this phase is over, I remain convinced oil will go higher again, and I have large long-term positions staked on this.
QUOTE(Bubble Pricker @ Jan 7 2007, 01:27 PM) [snapback]520366[/snapback]
The fundamentals for rising energy prices remain as strong as ever. The current sell-off in oil is "narrow minded", because it is focused on warm weather in the U.S., which is a temporary phenonemon, and in any event does not affect global demand for oil in any material way. The warm weather was probably also a bit of a catalyst to flush speculative positions by hedge funds out of the market. When this phase is over, I remain convinced oil will go higher again, and I have large long-term positions staked on this.
This was to be expected,as there was so much hedge-fund activity in the sector.
price moves either way are likely to be extreme.
...a substantial speculative "short" position is in evidence now....so being a contrarian I feel inclined to buy....the reversal could be just as dramatic.
the case for reversal back into +ve mode is simple.
the US will HYPERINFLATE it's way out of trouble,and if that means stirring up the hornets nest in iran to do it,they will.
...it's standard tactics when the economy hits a rough patch to go have a war.
1)it inflates the economy via extra defence spending/higher oil price
2)people concentrate on the conflict more than the price of their house(which falls)
3)the government can use it to bring out whatever skeletons they have in the closet and nobody will notice.
IT'S NO DIFFERENT THIS TIME!!!!
Man its a harsh world out there... thank god for the internet.
5% is nothing compared with the 250% gains it's made over 2 years.
Too much global instability with key producers - Iraq, Iran, Venezuala, and Nigeria - plus the oft cited over-estimation of the size of Saudi fields. You thought oil rose fast before? Just you wait and see.
Still floating around $60:
http://www.oilmarketer.co.uk/2007/02/21/wt...-60-per-barrel/
We may never see oil go below $55 again. Not in the near future for sure.
2c.
Too much global instability with key producers - Iraq, Iran, Venezuala, and Nigeria - plus the oft cited over-estimation of the size of Saudi fields. You thought oil rose fast before? Just you wait and see.
Still floating around $60:
http://www.oilmarketer.co.uk/2007/02/21/wt...-60-per-barrel/
We may never see oil go below $55 again. Not in the near future for sure.
2c.
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