I've been watching sales and lettings in and around Cambridge for some time now, and while the number of houses for sale has slowly decreased throughout the last 6 months, the number of houses to let has significantly increased. Tucker Gardner, for instance, in the summer was showing approx 240 houses for sale and 40 rentals. These figures are now 130 and 106 respectively.

What's going on? Is it just seasonal, or could it be that BTLers can't find anyone to pay them enough to cover their mortgages? Surely anything would be better than voids? - and some of these have been empty for some time. I can think of a couple of larger houses which have had their asking prices reduced quite significantly - there's one on Long Rd which has gone from £2,000 pcm steadily down to £1500 pcm and still can't get a taker. Why on earth did they start asking £2k? If they'd bothered looking on rightmove they would have seen that that was a quite ridiculous expectation. Yet others stubbornly stick at their asking prices even if it means voids.

I wonder if some of these properties are going to the lettings market for the first time having previously been the owner's main home, but then being kept when they trade up to a bigger property? I know quite a few people who have done this - thus depriving younger people the chance to own their home. Others presumably were bought as BTLs.

Either way, if they don't get tenants in soon, and for enough money to cover at least most of their mortgages, I would expect a number of these houses to come onto the sales market in the next couple of months - which hopefully should increase supply again, which is what Cambridge (and probably lots of other places) so desperately needs - and which will help moderate house prices here.

Hi fairygirl, I know it's not the same area but (as per my reply to the other thread):

I have noticed the amount of rental properties in my area increase significantly in the last 6 months. When we were in France & looking to move back to 2 specific areas, there were literally a handful of houses & they went within 1 week ohmy.gif ....
now, only 6 months later there are loads more to rent, although the rents haven't dropped significantly, they are taking a long time to lease........it's signs like this you can pick up on if you know your area well.
The house we moved out of was a 3 bed townhouse, very small new build, we paid £595 per month.....when we moved out he had it up for £650, there are another 4 on the same estate, all the same size ranging from £600-£650 & they have all been empty for over 2 months now......significant changes indeed biggrin.gif

just to re-iterate that houses in this area previously lasted for 1 week only then they would be rented out.

Hi - how's is the market-watching going in Cambridge, have the trends continued in the New year? Did you see the thread on The Triangle posted recently?

(Cambridge chap delurking...)
In the 10 years I've lived here, the rental round the corner has always been occupied by postgrads - until this (academic, I guess) year. The house opposite me is empty, while the son of the (recently care-homed) owner ponders whether to rent it out, or fix it up & flog it. It's a (tired, now) 4-bed detached with a decent garden - goodness knows what'll happen.
There seem to be crazily few for sale signs around, though. Don't estate agents do that any more, and just rely on rightmove for the easy ones? (Or is there just nothing for sale? Rightmove seems to think there's a lot near my postcode)

All obviously anecdotals, but it should kick off nicely when the new Arbury / NorthCam BTL Hell starts adding to the fun.

Here's the first spotting of a BTLer getting out of the Triangle (nr the station).

BTLer quitting (Rightmove)

The developer trying to sell them (Rightmove again)

Both at the same price (£235,000 for a 1 bedder).

I wonder which of these two vendors can take the biggest hit when prices start to fall?

Answers on a postcard please.

Welcome on board Precipice. Nice to see a new face on the CB links.

If Sheraton and Balloon ring bells, you know me and I work 3 doors down the corridor...
If not, then please excuse the cryptic ramblings

Cambridge seems to be a slightly odd place for rentals - vast amounts of old money in the landlording, and a load of students and young workers looking for somewhere short-term. Dunno what prices will do. Fortunately, I don't care. It's just fascinating / horrifying to watch.

(235 for a 1-bed flat is loopy. Just utterly disconnected from sanity.)

You've lost me utterly there - ramblings excused:)

Fairy nuff - (at least) 2 redwings in Cambridge, then

And, while I'm rambling, how is it that two friends, who I thought were relatively sane, have proposed getting a BTL (or two!) imminently? Apparently, property's done really well over the last 4 years, much better than savings. Bizarre conversations.
(No answer needed, really, I'm just confused).

Completely agree regarding pricing. I wish one of the UK mainstream newspapers would do a "what you can get for nearly a quarter of a million quid" story. Surely people would be horrified to find that it takes over 8 times the average salary to get a 1 bed flat in what looks like an office block in Cambridge ?

It's all about sentiment IMHO

I too have noticed an increase in rentals in Cherry Hinton (with same lack of houses for sale). In my road, a couple of weeks ago, there were three houses to let (at silly asking prices) and one was on with two agents (never seen that before on a rental).

Also another house in my road used to be let out but was "Sold STC" about 5 months ago (whilst let). The house is now empty (still with the Sold sign outside it after 5 months)!

Anyone noticed the Gallery development (over the footbridge from the Station, 2 bed flats in competition to the Triangle)? Phase II is being built (or Phase 11 according to the illiterate new home sign) and there are big old advertising hoardings next to the readymix silos. Along with the usual developer incentives of no deposit etc. is the phrase: Cambridge: the second best place to invest according to Location, Location Location.

How I laughed. £10 for second place in a beauty contest. I'd really like to invest in the second best place please!

On a similar vein, I noticed last month how the ArburyCamp tenements that are currently being put up look like 60's council housing, or perhaps a stalinist experiment. Something to do with the exposed steelwork and staircases. Funny thing is, two weeks later they bang on cheery coloured cladding and from afar (the A14) its suddenly toy town - a more convenient alternative to Cambourne.

Give it 10 years for the UPVC to fade, the social landlords to go bust and sell up to the government and it will be a sink estate to replace the now gentrified original Arbury.

£235k for a one-bedder is just crazy - thats prime London prices. The development near the station is clearly aimed at priced out London commuters, but at those prices, they would be better off just buying in London.

When I left Cambridge 10 years ago, you could buy a substantial (3 bed +) terraced house near the station (Tenison / Mawson Road) and have change from £150k. Boy how times have changed!

Near me a couple more BTL houses are up for sale. The two houses that have been empty and to-let for nearly 8 months now are still empty.

There are more prime BTL properties for sale in Chesterton (High Street). They haven't shifted for the last 3 months which makes a change. Normally the 2 bed terraces on the High Street sell in about a month to another BTLer, stand empty for a bit then go up for sale.

I agree. Much of CB is now at London prices, yet you still have to pay a fortune for a season ticket & spend several hours commuting a day. Why not stay in London then?

Prices in CB are more than ridiculous. £250k now buys you diddly squat - it's all either ex-LA, on a busy ring road or the ugliest house you've ever seen. And in fact if you are after a family home (say at least 3 proper beds & not looking too horrendous) in a good catchment area, you'd struggle to find much under £400k. FOUR HUNDRED THOUSAND POUNDS!

The smugness of many CB homeowners is very grating at times - many I know are convinced that CB house prices will go on upwards forever, yet, when forced, admit that they were overstretching themselves buying their current house several years ago for substantially less than they would get now. They seem to think money grows on trees. I can't see how it can carry on without an almighty crash, but then I've been thinking that for ages and it still hasn't happened...

</rant>

http://www.tgresidential.com/Rent/Details.aspx?id=L0130

This is on the new Arbury Parks development I think? Are they serious about the price????

£950pcm

I imagine they are hoping the rent will cover their mortgage!

Those who met me at the Cambridge meet will know I've been a homeowner for 3 years and since the meet over a year ago (?) prices have undoubtedly gone up. However, there are just too many negative signals now despite the recent demand. So, I've rung Bush (not the president) to get a valuation. I may be about to belatedly STR...

Time to clean the house then

That's not what I'm seeing around the A14/science park side of the city for the last two years. Ditto Cherry Hinton.

Go to www.houseprices.co.uk and see what houses in Cambridge are really selling for.

Well, we'll see when I get my valuation. My house is very near Science Park. 18 months ago I got my house valued at £150,000-£155,000. A similar house sold last year for £163,000 according to www.houseprices.co.uk. That is lower than the asking price of £170,000. A bigger house is on market for £215,000 on same road when they were going for £153,000 3 years ago.

CEN are apparently running a story on prices going up 20% last year which sounds wrong but I haven't seen it. BBC admittedly say only 6.7% over last year for Cambridge.

I am expecting agents to say put it on for £175,000...

Oh, that's superb! I imagine soon we'll be reading about Cambridge new-builds being kept unsullied by pesky tenants, since they're such a fine investment long-term.
£950? Really? To live in a box on a building site? Definitely easier and cheaper to sneak a new 40' container onto the site and live in that. I doubt it'd be noticed for a good few years...

£100 less a month gets you something identical looking, but with an allocated parkng space rather than a garage.
http://www.tgresidential.com/Rent/Details.aspx?id=L1137

And, oddly, there seem to be plenty of each up for grabs. Dunno if it's the builder or a keen BTLer, or even an honest to goodness (but bonkers) landlord, mind.
Should be fun to watch, regardless.

...but you could save about a tenner on your car insurance

Any got an informed view on the Science Park that I live so near to - any new businesses setting up or the opposite?

The people I know working there have stopped bitching so much about the traffic, and now seem to have the usual gripes about having to earn a living - no signs of doom. This is electronic stuff, dunno how all the Pharma's getting on. It certainly looks like business as usual.

Interesting.

It's been strange to see the big houses selling quickly on Milton Road. Why strange? Because most will lose their front gardens to the guided bus route. Who on earth would want no front garden and the guided bus going right past your house?



Yeah I saw that as I was walking home. A quick search online shows:

http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/city/...fd2d6d2bcb3.lpf

It sounds like a lot of spin to me.

The quote of:

"In Baldock we can get much more for our money. Because my fiancée Jenni is a teacher we have been accepted on the Government's Open Market Home Buy and have just had an offer accepted on a £140,000 two-bedroom flat.

"In Cambridge all we would get for that would be a dingy one-bedroom flat in a nasty part of town.

Is ********. You can buy a 1 bed flat on the private complex off Woodhead Drive for £109k with parking and before negotiating the price.
I'm sure people paying hundreds of thousands to live in a rabbit hutch near the station is pushing the average prices up even though I'm seeing prices coming down.

I agree Fairygirl, it doesn't make sense about the London prices + season ticket price. I occasionally go to Kings X in the morning and its so busy, 3k a year to stand for 1.5 hours a day? Crazy.

I also agree about the smuggnes of CB buyers, they act like they were clever for buying, them seem to forget that some of the early twenties people were teenagers or even in primary school when they bought, that doesnt make them clever, just old!

I was renting a flat on Hills Rd last year, it was 3 years old and when new (redevelopment) sold for £185k, it sold in the autumn for £250k, thats a huge increas in 3 years for the landlord doing no work. He was so arrogant believing that he was clever! Its like someone telling me that my iPod has gone up by 50 percent since I bought it and me being smug to the 9 year olds that didnt buy when iPods were only £189 quid! Total madness.

On the subject of high prices long term, I dont know when they will crash, but the one thing that scares me is that the longer it goes on and on and people believe themselves to be rich, the more hard hitting it will be for the whole of society when the market drops.

Incidentally, the rental market looks very different to 6 months ago now the Belvedere, Triangle and various other developments are finished, take a look at how many flats are For Sale and to Rent some people are obviously regretting that BTL choice now.

Yes. It's on the edge of town. New 2 bedders go for 1100 or 1200 closer in.

So, I should feel smug for living closer to town than that in a 2 bed with a garage for under 800 a month then?

Hi Fairygirl


I do'nt know if it is because they have moved or closed down, but Spire on Cherry Hinton road is now all empty.

Maybe the landlord reads this site - price gone down to £925!!

http://www.tgresidential.com/Rent/Details.aspx?id=L0130

..and different picture but this one in Triangle for £1050, which looks same as one for £1200 in property plus at start of the month.

http://www.tgresidential.com/Rent/Details.aspx?id=LTG10441

Are these being rented by London commuters, or not being rented at all? I can't see most local Cambridge folk being able to believe they are good value?

I live in east kent and it is the same here, there are masses of rental properties available. When I moved into our property 4 years ago the rent was incredibly cheap compared to everything else in the town. Now it would appear that it is about the norm for rental prices here.

I'd say in last 3 years rent in Cambridge has gone up but not as much as house prices. Typical Mill Road areas victorian houses were 750pcm 3 years ago, now 850-900. That is 15-20%. House prices for those have gone up from around 200,000 to 250,000 / 275,000 so around 20-25%.

The flats I mention both in buying and renting are another step up. For inferior construction and space (although newer) they are even more overpriced. So it's interesting to see if they come down quickly or whether London commuters will snap them up.

Cambridge Rents definitely in the Doldrums. I'm sure they were asking £1200 for this type of central 2 bed flat back in August/September.

Same in Peterborough. I've been here for 2 years @ £425 pcm and now flats in the same block (same size) are going for £395....am tempted to ask the agent for a reduction

My rent hasn't gone up in nearly 3 years now.

Rent rarely goes up when you are in a property and proving to be a good tenant. That doesn't mean it won't go up for the next resident if you leave.

So if you stay for 5 years, with inflation at say 3% p.a. then the landlord is happy to see his income fall by nearly 20% in real terms ? Pretty generous/rubbish landlord !

Some of them are. I met some old house mates in the house I used to rent when I first moved to Cambridge. The rent hadn't gone up since 1999! Jayne-the-Payne (if you're reading this) you are in a similar situation I seem to remember?

It will be interesting to see whether this changes if interest rates ramp up. It may be wise to check on how big your landlords mortgage is before you rent a place, although I'm not sure they will be willing to share that information!

I reckon the rent readjustment on the arbury camp property is because it's so new - they're still finding the level. It may even be put up artifically high by the developer to encourage other investors that they could also get that much .... But right now it's a building site (and a long way out of town / from any amenities) so I'm not suprised to see it fall - it certainly can't justify being more than the Woodhead Drive / Huntingdon Road flats which are usually £800esque.

Was speaking to someone in an EA who says that there is still a shortage of supply, but he puts this down to people not wanting to advertise their own place because they can't find somewhere to move to. Odd logic, and would imply things are moving quickly which is not the impression I get from the current swathes of For Sale boards I'm seeing. Probably just spin.

The Cambridge Evening News headline amused me, although a quick scan said that the headline was for the posh places in Newnham (presumably a low volume too), whereas ""However for four bedroom houses on small developments the prices may only have gone up by 5 per cent." - ie normal houses are at normal retail inflation.

Was very amused to see this morning that a property company billboard near the Triangle (on the Brooklands Ave side of the railway bridge) had been defaced by a local HPC sympathiser, so it now reads:

Can't buy a house?
Welcome to Cambridge!

ROFL, but depressingly, so, so true.

I took a detour on the way home just to read it. Big old letters, on a big sign that may take a while to replace. Hilarious!

Any chance of a photo? That's some way from my normal (daytime) routes...

P.

I drove past it today (had completely forgotten about it) but could not help but notice it whilst waiting at the lights in Brooklands Avenue!

Have a look at this one on Tucker:

http://www.tgresidential.com/Buy/Details.aspx?id=S11613

£220,000 for a 1 bed flat. Admittedly the living room is spacious. However the page boasts a rental value of £700 and a gross yield of 3.8%. How do they work that out? £220,000 would be £962 p/m at BOE rate (according to their mortgage calculator on same page).

Oh, and leasehold charges amount to around £1500 per year - LOL!

How do they work that out? 700 * 12 months / 220,000 = 3.8% gross yield. They're not misleading. But anyone buying without working out the other costs including the charges you mention above would be a complete wally.

Gross yield is low but net yield will probably be negative, certainly not enough to cover borrowing costs. And if you had the capital to start with then why risk the void periods?

Better hope the capital gains will reward the investment - that's certainly what the current seller is trying to do!

Still a low number of properties available on TG compared to last year. I check back occasionally using the Google Earth flythrough - lots of fun.

I see. Isn't that a too simplistic figure for BTL to use? I'm not sure what it even demonstrates other than it'll take about 20 years to make a profit before you consider other factors.

As for TG I've seen the number of properties rise from around 140 to 155 in last month. May be interesting to keep tabs.

You would think so but it is the industry standard!

You find BTLers going on about the 6% yield they are making despite the fact that they are paying mortgage interest at 7.5%!

Ok - given this a little thought from the landlords perspective.

I guess it's a case of IF you own the whole house at 220,000 the income is 3.8%. The other no risk option is to put £220,000 in savings account at 3.3% (net for high-rate payer). That 0.5% bonus to BTLing is £1100.

However, that clearly doesn't take into account:
1) Maintenance (about £50 per month I'd estimate)
2) Dead periods with no tenants (not sure on average figure for this but say 1 month per year at £700)

If on the other hand you get 75% mortgage on the BTL then you are getting:

Income: 700 * 11 = £7700
Expenditure: £165,000 * 0.055 (achievable mortgage rate) = £9075 (IO) + £600 maintenance = £9675

So, if you own houses outright then you lose a little. If you are heavily mortgaged (say 75%) then you are losing £2000 a year.

A loss of £2000 a year... but if the landlord thinks prices are going up 7% this year like everyone is telling him/her - then that is £15400 - no brainer. In fact they only need to go up 1% to start making a profit even. Sentiment is playing a big part and if we get to YOY -ve like we almost did in 2005 then it will be interesting