I AM WARY, personally.

Because of the way this Bubble has grown

= = =

Here's an example:
Dear Investor,

Good news! We have managed to get a final small allocation of the Paris
Gardens development in Shanghai. We have obtained a final 9 units, all
2 bedroom apartments, with a deadline for reservation of this Friday,
10th December. This is absolutely the last chance to buy into this
exciting development. If you are interested in acquiring an apartment in
this release, please contact your City Trading Post representative as soon
as possible. Units will be allocated on a first come, first served
basis to be fair to all investors.

The Paris Gardens opportunity is summarised below:

- A guaranteed NET yield of 7.2% for 3 years commencing from the full
final purchase payment.

- Metro line 2 to be extended into this area by the year 2010,
ensuring fast connection to the new Financial District.

- Located in the Gubei residential area within walking distance of one
of the main business districts of Shanghai - the Hongqiao Development
zone - with excellent access to the Hongqiao and Pudong airports,
various consulates (including Japanese, Singaporean and Swiss consulates), 5
star hotels (Marriott, Sheraton, Renaissance etc), Hongqiao Exhibition
Centre, and Carrefour Hypermarket.

- The immediate area has been designated by the Changning district
government for significant investment with the expansion of the Gubei
residential area to expand upon established Japanese, Korean and other
local international communities.

- High quality decoration and furnishing included in the stated price.

- The yield is guaranteed by 2 separate companies and also backed by a
number of fixed assets.

- Legal oversight to be conducted by the Zhong Lun Law firm, the
leading real estate lawyers in China. (Winners of 2004 China Law Awards as
the best law firm in China for construction law.)

- Experienced management company with a 7 year trading history
maintaining occupancy rates in recent years well over 90% through established
relationships with consulates and major international companies.

We look forward to hearing from you.

City Trading Post Ltd.

020 7015 5020
www.citytradingpost.co.uk

DrB, I'm almost certain that property in China and Shanghai especially are vastly overpriced and in a bubble. The amount of bad loans that the public banks have on their books is unreal, and I believe the government have recently restricted by diktat the amount of money that can be lent out on property. Also you have to consider the outlook for China in the very near future: they will probably a cycle of monetary tightening very shortly, and these two factors may contribute to the bubble in Shanghai (and other regional centers of commerce) bursting precipitately. I saw off-plan flats being hawked at a property show in London. Now that tells me two things: they can't sell them to local (Chinese) investors and they have had to come all the way to London to find buyers. So, the locals can't afford them and your only source of resale would be another foreign investor.

[quote=zzg113,Dec 8 2004, 11:11 AM]
DrB, I'm almost certain that property in China and Shanghai especially are vastly overpriced and in a bubble.

China property market is in its infancy so could be likened to buying in London in 1970s. I suspect a lot more growth, however....... China is a very unwise place to buy. The law will always favour indeginous population in a dispute. I know a businessman who lost millions due to corruption which pervades Chineese society through and through, indeed in his case it eventually turned out everyone involved from local Govt. to factory workers were out to con him. Even large muti - nationals have lost out due to anti - foreign bias.

Dr Bubb, the one thing Ive learned over the years is to invest in lands where the Law and rules provide similar protection to UK. A good example is Germany. There is huge growth potential due to long recession and the state is not corrupt.
If you want to take risks and have money skimmed - off by local gangs the options are many (Estonia, Croatia, Bulgaria etc).

Dogbox,
Your concerns havent prevented 2-3 years of good price growth in China.
Although things are slowing now, as the focus shifts to Hong Kong
======

(Maybe this is the reason that Chinese investors are headed to HK: higher interest rates in China):

Shenzhen Agents Cool their heals despite Peak Season- says SCMP

"Developers in Shenzhen look set to defer their high season launches as tighter mortgage lending and concerns about further property cooling measures cloud buying sentiment, says property agents.

This month and next month are traditionally the peak season for flat sales, coinciding with the end of the summer holiday and the national "Golden Week" holiday. But some developers have still not applied for pre-sale permits in view of market uncertainties...

Sales in the primary market were down 30 per cent last month from August last year at 4.1 billion yuan, and the number of transactions fell 40 per cent to 2,500 units or 220,000 square meters.

Note Dr B, in my second paragraph (08/12/2004) I said "I expect a lot more growth".

My reservations were that it was a difficult area for UK residents to invest in given the opaque / unknown


Interesting looking back at these old posts. I've always accused many here of being out and out pessimists and it's no wonder when you look back. zzq113 was a major poster here and I often accused him of overpessimism - and sure enough we have an example above - 'I'm almost certain China is vastly overpriced'.

This is fascinating and just the sort of post we see right now along the lines of 'the whole of Europe is one big bubble'.

As I've always said some people are just life long pessimists but NEVER recognise thier folly. They call themselves realists.

Dr B I've come to realise is not an out and out pessimist as he has at least invested in some real estate unlike those that will foever find reasons to sit it out.

Remember all you pessimists - I told you a long time back that Morocco would become a world class destination for middle - upper income people. Recall how you all laughed and sniggered.

You will see within 3 years I called it right.

A bit of a mixed message that was.



Hardly. I have just agreed to buy my third property in HK



?? That there were risks? Or there were opportuntities?

That there were significant opportunities, from a very low base point, right on our doorstep to become part of a middle - upper end tourism boom groaning with almost exclusively world class developers backed by an all powerful King with a vision as sharp as a razor.

What other world leader sets out with a tourism constitution that has as a central plank the promotion of YEAR ROUND resorts and specifically NOT 'lock up and leave' resorts we see in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Turkey and Bulgaria?