Which property prices do you think will fall faster:

- developing countries (Turkey, Morocco, Egypt, Cape Verde)

- Southern EU countries (Spain, Greece, Cyprus)

- USA?

Strange question. Most of these countries will likely see increases in house prices for some time to come.

I think Southern EU countries you mentioned will show less price inflation than the others. Even in places like Spain, where stagnant / falling house prices along the coast has received much publicity, I'd wager the overall trend will be up.

>Strange question. Most of these countries will likely see increases in house prices for some time to come.

I do not think it is strange at all.

Who buys in Egypt, MOrocco or Cape Verde? People that use the equity from their UK or EU properties.
If the interest rate goes up , as it is expected in the next year, the borrowing will be much more difficult.
People from Egypt, MOrocco do not have any money to purchase properties

In Spain prices will half in the next 2-3 years after the Euribor will reach 5%-6%. The market will be swamped with properties in Spain.

After all the mess will be cleaned up, then a healthy rise of preices might start in Spain.

BUt I think USA will crash the hardest, looking forward to buying an apartment in Reno or South Lake Tahoe.

50% drop in Spain? Are you thinking of a particular area where house prices are inflated? I don't think rises in interest rates will have anything like that affect. Remember we saw base rate rise to a level 3 times that of today in UK and yet prices only fell 10% from their high. (Early 90s.)

Property investors on this forum are not intending to sell their Moroccan or Cape Verde property to locals at a later date. (Ofcourse we don't discriminate against the locals, just realise that the vast majority in Morocco, Caper Verde, etc. will not be available to afford our property.) Though not an exhaustive list, the resale market is for people that typically want to:
1) Be able to touch and feel their property investment.
2) Have holiday home in the sun.
3) Want a place to retire or sepnd the winter months either now or further down the line.

>Property investors on this forum are not intending to sell their Moroccan or Cape Verde property to locals at a later date.

Nobody will have available money to buy overpriced properties in MOrocco or other developing country in the near future (they will, but in say 10 years from now). Besides, investing in property will not be so popular in the next years.

BUt if someone bought the house in MOrocoo or Cape Verde for personal use, then it is a great buy as beach front properties are difficult to find these days.

10%? where were you living in 1991? it sure was'nt here in the uk, prices where i lived dropped 30-40% , my flat was valued at 32k 2 years after i'd bought it for 49k, my friends house was valued at 68k roughly 2 years after being valued at 98k, people were stuck with propertys worth 2 or 3 years salary less than they'd bought them for and there were more keys were going through building society letterboxes than letters, i could go on and on but suffice to say it was a damn sight more than 10%! the last property bubble ruined a lot of people and this next one is going to be many many times worse and more protracted and painfull.

I assumed he was talking about Spain which only dropped about 10% over that period and has been pretty crash resistant until now.

I think there are so many factors that point to investing in Spanish Property but there are areas to avoid like the plague.

Avoid Torrevieja. Avoid anywhere in the Mar Menor area. Avoid Murcia (Inland). Avoid overpriced areas in the Costa Del Sol. Avoid Albox.

Look towards Granada, Costa de Luz, Costa Tropical and Costa Almeria. Also consider Costa Brava.

Before anyone attacks me I am not a Spanish Property Agent or Overseas Investment bod, I do though own a house in Spain but it is not an investment property. I lived there for 2 years and thoroughly enjoyed it. I intend to go back to my house in 20 years and enjoy it again.

So why is Spain going to be OK.

1. Climate
2. Access - Budget airline routes increasing from provincial as well as National UK Airports. 2-3 hours.
3. Baby Boomers - Yes they are hitting retirement age and most are looking to live abroad. Spain is a popular holiday destination within the EU that allows them to draw their pension and enjoy the benefits of free health care. Also lower cost of living helps pension go further.
4. The Germans are coming. In the 80's and 90's these guys were the biggest investors in Spanish Property. Late 90's their economy went pear shaped and they are still not out of th woods yet but their on an upward trend. When these guys start buying again the market will boom.
5. Location, Location, Location - Buy on the coast and you will be OK, buy inland and forget it. Unless you buy around a city like Granada, Seville, Barcelona. Front Line coastal Properties were you dont have to get in your car to get to the beach or cross a dual carriageway are running out and soon they will be premium.

200000 Euros for a 1 bedroom-apt? These are the current prices for Front Line coastal Properties in Spain and this is the reason why Morocco looks like an excelent "investment" at 75000 Euros.

But people will wake up and realize that money do not grow in trees.

er... arent you forgetting the massive oversupply of new build on the coast at the virtually non-existant resale market there?

House price defaltion in UK in early 90s. The 10% I referred to was an average in UK.

I've just had a look at the Halifax house price indices (non seasonally adjusted for UK, including Northern Ireland) and it shows an 11.7% drop. (If you want to check I've used indices for 1989 Q2 and 0993 Q1 to get this figure. )

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/HistoricalDataSpreadsheet.asp

Clearly the 11.7% is an estimate of the average fall in house prices in UK. It will not apply to all areas equally.

I stand by my ascertion that rate rise catara mentioned in Spain will not result in anything like a 50% drop in Spanish house prices.

I dont know how to say this so I will say it quite bluntly:

Morocco is quite frankly the worst investment I have ever seen in my life

Crime, Poverty, Terrorism, Poor Healthcare, Unstable Government, Corrupt, Non EEC, Islamic, Desert.

I would look at paying between 10-15,000 euros for a large villa around Marrakech or Agadir. Anything more than this and you are paying "tourist price". In other words you are being ripped off.

Yes you are completely right of course. This is the key to buying property in Spain in my opinion. Every area is completely different and some will drop like bricks and others will rise and rise. Lots of new build is popping up in areas 500m+ inland from the beach. Even though this is only 10 minute walk to the beach it is IMO a load of rubbish. I have seen it near where we are. People buying shoebox newbuild apartments that are about 1km from the beach for 120k euros. I wouldn't pay 70k euros for these. They will drop in value or even end up lying empty for years. People will look for beachside properties or large properties slightly inland. It is very much like the UK in this way. The shoebox BTL developments in historicaly undesirable areas just dont sell after a certain price is imposed by the developers. The developers will stop building when they realise they cant sell anything. At this point the natural influx of Brits will flow in as the prices drop back down again on these blocks and the new build balance is aligned again.

I almost agree. There are also several other "worst investments", but Morocoo might top them all.

It's good to have all points of view here, and helps readers like myself to form a more rounded opinion. However to believe that somewhere which is beachfront mediteranean, has a great climate, low cost of living, great culinary tradition and rich history could ever be 'the worst investment possible' in my view serves only to undermine the credibility of your opinions. Hopefully all who have invested understand the risks, which remain considerable, but also look at the rewards both financially, and emotionally.
Other countries, like Bulgaria for example are a mismatch of ugly multicoloured buildings (in places), Costa del Sol in places (not all) has been ruined by high concentration, highrise developments, and I would understand if these are your other 'terrible investments'. However what is being attempted by the government has to be applauded. If Saidia and Morocco is half as good as all who have invested there hope it to be then to brand it as you have is nothing short of a joke.

Of course they are on the list. You can add the £30000+ ugly apartments in Turkey, the £50000+ ugly apartments in Caleta de Fuste or Costa Antigua in Fuerteventura, many areas in Tenerife, Hurghada (Egypt), Sal (Cape Verde), many area in Cyprus.

This are places I have visited, I am sure there are many other "beauties" around...

Golfers will swarm to Saidia where a round in December is a lot less chilly than in the Costas, yet not too hot in summer. Not many places where you get 3 eighteen hole courses along its own 7 km beach. The pull of the place will be immense.

I note no one has shown me an up - market resort on - beach with 3 golf courses featuring £180000 3 bed detatched villas WITH A YEAR ROUND SEASON, 3 hours flying time away.

Oh, and the LJDF villa's are 95% sold yet the resort wont even be ready for 3 years, so I think selling - on even next year will yield a healthy profit (c£40000+ in my case as I got a bargain as I was almost the first to reserve).

There are Golf Courses built everywhere- BUlgaria, Egypt, Canary Islands, etc, etc, etc,etc.
How many golf players are in this world? One cannot base an investment on playing golf because this means just playing with money.

About the beach, Fuerteventura has 30 km of pristine beaches where you can stay nude if you want to. I guess the Islamic rule of Morocoo will prohibit anything like that, isn't it?

Yeeessss!!!! Yet another plus for Morocco.

Is this a wind up.

As someone who ventured to Morocco I am struggling to understand if we are talking about the same place. For an insight into what you are buying into read interviews such as this one. http://www.abc.net.au/foreign/content/2006/s1589161.htm

According to the Koran, Muslims who change their religion and die with their new religion, will go to hell. Islam is everything for Moroccans – it is the basis of their civilisations, their families, relationships. They live and die with it.

WILLACY: But it’s chaos from another quarter, extreme Islam, that has the Moroccan authorities even more worried. Three years ago a wave of bombings targeting westerners ripped through Casablanca. Twelve young suicide bombers, Islamic extremists, members of the militant group Salafia Jihadia blew themselves up and killed thirty three civilians – most of them Moroccans.

JAAMA BAIDA: [Political commentator] I find the rise of fundamentalism is a much more destabilising factor for society and the government. It wasn’t missionaries who put a bomb in Casablanca but rather Islamic fundamentalists. That for me is where the danger lies.

LA Times http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-...,6639969.column

The danger for Morocco is that Benchemsi and a new crop of liberal-minded public groups aren't the only ones adept at exploiting new freedoms. By all accounts, the most energetic political force in Morocco these days is the Islamist Justice and Development Party. Indeed, the other piece of journalism that created TelQuel-like buzz this year ran in the party's newspaper. It said the tsunami in Southeast Asia was God's way of punishing hedonism and warned that a similar fate awaited Morocco unless it began to conform to God's law.

http://mondediplo.com/1999/08/01leader

Morocco is a social powder-keg. A quarter of its population (more than 7 million people) live below the poverty line: 23% of the economically active population are unemployed; more than half the inhabitants are still illiterate. In the United Nations human development indices, Morocco comes in at 125th, a long way behind Algeria and Tunisia.

The social divisiveness and inequalities are self-evident. Most of Morocco’s inhabitants have been left by the wayside. More than a hundred thousand senior graduates - engineers, doctors, teachers and technicians - are seeking work. For a long time discontent was limited to the marginalised world of the countryside, but now revolt threatens in the cities too. Particularly since Morocco’s slum dwellers - like the students in the science faculties - seem increasingly drawn to the radical views of the Islamists. Now that the socialists have been drawn into government, many of the country’s "disinherited" see the Islamists as the only credible opposition; and they are certainly the most formidable political force in the country as a whole.

On top of this there is a substantial foreign debt ($22 billion), representing 39% of GDP and consuming more than 25% of the country’s export income.



You see I just dont trust a country which is majority Islam in current times. May be its complete unjustified paranoia but going to prison for three years for changing your religion etc I just dont trust that kind of regime, especially one that depends on the liberal attitude of its current monarch to keep an Islamic undercurrent under control. I just wouldnt feel right investing more than £30k into it.

I also dont like the fact that unemployment stands at 20%, a quarter of the people struggle for daily food/clean water etc. And there you are playing golf in your houses worth 40 times more than their house cost. I also read an article in the national geographic about the number of women wearing headscarves has doubled since the US invasion of Iraq as an outward show of Islamic faith and support even though the king has tried to push through reform.

I just dont know,not somewhere I would like to own property. Nice place for a quick visit.

This I agree, I loved Marakesh and the Atlas mountains. I have not been to the North MOrocco yet, but I might go after Saidia opens. Maybe I shall rent dogbox's villa, if he asks less than £300/week.

Adibrown

Thanks for that E-mail, hope you took a long deep breath before writing it! DogBox's E-mail certainly isn't a wind up. As he and others have said on other threads, increased tourism is the path the Government has chosen to improve its economy and the living standards of its people. There are many precendents round the world of places seemingly riskier than Morocco that have flourished. In particular if you consider natural disasters as a risk - something I think we all do!

Playing devil's advocate, I've tried to think of an example that meets DogBox's challenge (£180k that meets most of his criteria.) I honestly can't think of anything. Closest I could come up with was for development in Santiago Island (Cape Verde.) Think it featured two 18 hole golf courses and if you got in at the very start, £110k or so would have got 3 bed villa on small plot with views over golf course and onto Ocean beyond. That development was billed as 5 star, though I couldn't help feeling quality would be suspect. That site didn't offer anything like the range of facilities Siadia will either. Incase anyone is reading this and thinking that this development interests them, I know prices like that disappeared over a year ago.

Adibrown:- Got to run, but will likely read your links and respond again later in the week.

Soup Dragon and Adibrown,
I got abit fedup some time ago getting the polarised views on this forum on places like Morocco. Even searching on the internet does not really give a balanced view. I found the Aqoul website to give a more balanced view. They often critique newspaper and magazine articles, which I find helps to give a more even-handed approach. See http://www.aqoul.com/archives/2006/04/morocco_stallin.php as an example.

I enjoy reading the research and views on this forum. For a bit of fun, I just took a look at the oldest threads and posts from 2004. They were made up of the same old ding dong between people who have bought and hyping it up and those that have bottled it and are trying to justify it. Like most, I've been through the ups and downs in the last 20 years and I stick to the rule of rent covering loan in UK and only using money I can afford to lose on off-plan overseas investment. Its a bit safe but it has seen me through a few tricky moments. I've bought 2 villas in Saidia. What will happen? I haven't a clue. I describe it my friends as standing on a hill and not too sure which side I'm going down. Morocco is a steep hill and if it does well that's great and if it doesn't then finally the doomsters will have their day because they've sure been predicting it for a while now.

Forgive my suspicions but isn't it strange that 3 people on this topic have bought villas in Saidia. Now either it is sheer coincidence, you have spread the HPC word amongst owners or you are just one person looking to promote a dead in the water investment

4 people! I've bought a villa in Saidia too. Could it just be that we think it is actually going to be a very good deal? We've bought villas that will eventually be on one of the biggest tourist complexes on the Mediterranean, with a rental agent on site and a great location for our own holidays. Morocco is about to change, for good or bad depending on your view of tourism, but change is certainly coming. We just happen to believe in the product.

Sorry, but to have 'suspicions' of people reading posts on a forum on overseas investment, and in particular purchasers of villas in Saidia on a thread about Morocco is lunacy. Probably best to keep conspiracy theories like that to yourself. Opinions are appreciated, comments like that aren't.

P.s. I'm buying an appartment, and no I dont post under any other name

Are the 3 of us the same person? Or is it 4 or is it 5? Who knows but, if not, thank you for the compliment. I’ve got a new idea for a thread “Are all the pessimists on this appropriately named website arguing with just one person and which one is he?”

Now to put my dress on and reply as Catara....