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House Price Crash forum > Investment > Overseas property investment
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catara
QUOTE (Ferrari430 @ Jan 6 2008, 08:44 PM) *
There is an active resale market there unlike other emerging places (like bulgaria where i also own).


Congratulations on spending wisely your money!!! laugh.gif

Desert Knight
Despite the many sarcastic comments from some on this board, Dubai has provided excellent capital and rental returns over the past few years.

I now deeply regret selling my investment Villa way too early and 'only' making a 150,000 GBP profit. If I had waited and sold it this year I would have realised about 650,000GBP profit!

While those huge gains are probably gone for ever, there should still be a couple of years of decent returns still to be made.
Ferrari430
QUOTE (Desert Knight @ Jan 7 2008, 12:32 PM) *
Despite the many sarcastic comments from some on this board, Dubai has provided excellent capital and rental returns over the past few years.

I now deeply regret selling my investment Villa way too early and 'only' making a 150,000 GBP profit. If I had waited and sold it this year I would have realised about 650,000GBP profit!

While those huge gains are probably gone for ever, there should still be a couple of years of decent returns still to be made.


Yes sarcastic and ignorant comments. Lot of these forumers know nothing about Dubai property investments and surprisingly making uninformed judgements. For others it is 'sour grapes' - they havent bought property at the right time and now finding every excuse to put Dubai down the drains. I can give many examples of how successful property investments have been in Dubai for the last 5 years and there is still lot of steam left. If anyone wants to ask anything specific about the market please do - I have been dabbling into it since 2004 so know a fair bit about it
Ferrari430
QUOTE (catara @ Jan 6 2008, 11:20 PM) *
Congratulations on spending wisely your money!!! laugh.gif


Catara - thanks for applauding me on my success.
For your information my initial investment in Dubai has trebled since 2004.

Howz yours done?

About the resale market

Look at the following site

www.bhomes.com.

Find a reasonably priced property and see if you can buy it! Reasonably priced properties sell on the resale market in a blink of an eye. You will only know once you try and please save your remarks till then
Ferrari430
Rents and property prices to surge in 2008
This is a question that tenants and potential home buyers are asking all the time. But with talk about the rent cap not being renewed for 2008 and an explosion of investment banking growth in Dubai, combined with inflationary local salary rises, it is a matter of how much, and not whether rents and prices rise.

It is arguable that the UAE is living in its own new era. Oil prices and oil revenues are at an all-time high. The government is proactively expanding the local economy through private sector led investment. And the cushion of oil surplus reserves is there to fuel this boom whatever happens in the global economy.

At the same time, the focus of expansion in Dubai for 2008 will be the financial sector. Deutsche Bank's regional chairman Dr. Henry Azzam recently said 2008 would be a 'bonanza' for investment bankers in the UAE with a large number of high value IPOs coming up both at home and in neighboring states.

These are the guys with the fattest pay packets who can pay the highest rents. As they roll into town these new residents will gradually displace less highly paid residents in the best areas; this phenomenon has already happened but it is going to become even more noteworthy.

New perspectives
Some new banking residents will quickly spot just what good value Dubai property is compared to where they came from, and buy immediately. Meanwhile, other existing residents will be frightened by rising rentals and decide to take the plunge and buy themselves.

Unfortunately the supply of property in Dubai has been slower in coming on stream than expected. Therefore, although 2008 will see many new buildings being completed this is still unlikely to be enough to satisfy demand.

Another factor likely to be driving prices upward in 2008 will be the falling cost of mortgage finance. The UAE currency peg means that if the US cuts its interest rates next year - as seems inevitable with the US financial crisis now in progress and markets point to 3.5 per cent - then home finance costs will fall in the UAE at a time of rising rents.

No-brainer
Indeed, with UAE inflation in 2008 almost certain to top the current rate of 10-15 per cent, depending on who you talk to, then real interest rates will continue to be negative. This means that inflation is eroding the real value of your debt and that borrowing money to buy real estate is a no-brainer.

Those Dubai residents who fear a housing crash should search back on Google to find articles written in the late 1990s about an imminent crash in UK house prices. In fact, UK house prices went on to double or even triple and have barely started to show signs of weakness this autumn, despite the credit crunch.

In Dubai it definitely looks as though the real estate boom is set for at least another year, and the prospect is that the good times may roll on for a lot longer than that as markets usually overshoot on the upside. So how much will rents and prices rise? 10-20 per cent looks on the conservative side.


http://www.ameinfo.com/140055.html
Ferrari430
Dubai makes the right moves to handle the real estate boom
The formation of the Real Estate Regulatory Authority and the escrow account law back in July last year are now increasingly felt in the Dubai real estate market; a previously uncontrolled boom has been reigned back and is being systematically converted into a recognisable global property market.

The announcement of the five per cent rent cap for 2008 should also be understood in this context. Dubai chose not to slam on the breaks with a rent freeze but has taken a gradual approach.

The first rent cap was set at 15 per cent in 2006, that came down to seven per cent in 2007 and for 2008 the maximum increase for an existing tenant will be five per cent, and nothing at all for anybody who signed a contract last year.

This gradual approach to managing the real estate boom is a classic example of Dubai's pragmatic and sensible approach to managing economic development: If you hit a winner you run with it for a while, but then you have to act to stop things getting out of control.

RERA rules
Step forward the Real Estate Regulatory Authority which now licenses over 400 developers active in the Dubai market, and which is responsible for imposing the escrow account law.

This means that developers have to deposit funds for off-plan apartment projects into a separate account, unless they are given special dispensation by the RERA. In practice the interests of both parties is protected: the buyer knows that funds are correctly held on deposit; and the developer is protected from making poor investments with the money.

The RERA is working hand-in-hand with the Dubai Land Department, the real estate title registry. The latter is making progress in registering freehold titles of property sold to date in Dubai, and has just warned property owners that registrations after the middle of 2008 will be based on a percentage of the market and not original selling price.

Mortgage law
Meanwhile, upcoming legislation in 2008 on mortgages and multiple occupancy of buildings, will further clarify the rights and obligations of parties.

For the development of a vibrant modern mortgage market in Dubai it is vital that the rights of the banks in the case of loan default and the rights of the borrower are protected by legislation sourced from the best global practice. Similarly, the position of apartment owners within buildings with respect to common parts needs to be clarified by a strata-title law.

Dubai has certainly come along way from May 2002 when foreigners were promised the right to freehold title in Dubai, albeit without formal legislation at first. That followed and the subsequent development of the market is ongoing, and proceeding in an orderly and well managed fashion.

By the end of 2008 Dubai real estate will be in a legal position remarkably similar to most global markets, and its electronic land registry is actually a long way ahead of many rivals. This just has to be good for the market and prices.


http://www.ameinfo.com/142928.html

Ferrari430
Today from AmeInfo

US rate cuts to boost house prices in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Hong Kong

The US has axed interest rates to help its collapsing stock and housing markets. On the other side of the world, fixed-peg exchange rate regimes mean that wholly inappropriate low interest rates are now being applied to the booming Gulf economies and in Hong Kong. House price inflation is inevitable.

Hong Kong residents are perhaps more used to playing their property market than people living in the Gulf, whose freedom to buy has only emerged from relatively recent market liberalisation.

They have therefore been quicker to recognise what lower interest rates mean for real estate and mortgage applications are up by 50 per cent; and to be fair the Hong Kong banks have also been much quicker to adjust mortgage products to take advantage of low interest rates.

House price inflation
But lower finance costs ripple across the whole property development chain from land prices right through to secondary sales. If it is cheaper to finance development then profits are bigger. If home finance costs are falling, and look likely to fall further, then more buyers will enter the market.

It is an upward price spiral or house price inflation that will result. Tight supply conditions obviously help to exacerbate this market driver, and completed property in cities like Hong Kong, Dubai and Abu Dhabi is in painfully short supply.

A cursory check of the website
albabworld.com reveals just three villas listed in The Meadows, for example, compared with 20 a few months ago; and just two one-bedroom apartments in The Greens. It is the same in less popular Dubai locations.

At the same time the exit of local investors from the stock market after the extreme volatility of last week will likely produce a new wave of property investors. This phenomenon happened when the stock market crashed in 2006, and is simply a function of money looking for yield.

Rental yields are still very good in Dubai, particularly when compared with interest on cash deposits after the interest rate cuts of last week which the UAE central bank immediately passed on to local savers.

Finding yield
The smart money will therefore head into property, driving prices higher and yields down to something closer to the cost of finance, or interest rates.

It was the slashing of interest rates in the US after the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000-1 that sent the US housing market into a bubble. Now that bubble has burst and lower US rates are needed to keep property owners their afloat.

This time it will be other isolated pockets of real estate around the world that see their prices inflated by low interest rates. And given the determination of the authorities in Hong Kong and the UAE to maintain the dollar peg at almost any cost, this outcome has an air of inevitability about it.

For local residents in these countries the buying opportunity is now and those contemplating buying a villa today may find that they can only afford a small flat if they wait until tomorrow.

Converted Lurker
QUOTE (Ferrari430 @ Jan 7 2008, 04:19 AM) *
Catara - thanks for applauding me on my success.
For your information my initial investment in Dubai has trebled since 2004.

Howz yours done?

About the resale market

Look at the following site

www.bhomes.com.

Find a reasonably priced property and see if you can buy it! Reasonably priced properties sell on the resale market in a blink of an eye. You will only know once you try and please save your remarks till then

hmm...just done that ...er..no resales now there's a surprise. Now tell me, where are 'jonny foreigners' (AKA mugs) allowed to buy? In your own time... dry.gif
Ferrari430
QUOTE (Converted Lurker @ Jan 28 2008, 11:28 PM) *
hmm...just done that ...er..no resales now there's a surprise. Now tell me, where are 'jonny foreigners' (AKA mugs) allowed to buy? In your own time... dry.gif


No Resales???!!??!!!?

Looks like you need to be spoon fed

click on www.bhomes.com - click on advanced search - select the 'buy' radio button - click on search - you will find 1240 resales as on 31/01/08.
I also suggest to check out the rentals - will give you a good idea on the high yield!
dubaiexpat
QUOTE (Ferrari430 @ Jan 31 2008, 11:22 PM) *
No Resales???!!??!!!?

Looks like you need to be spoon fed

click on www.bhomes.com - click on advanced search - select the 'buy' radio button - click on search - you will find 1240 resales as on 31/01/08.
I also suggest to check out the rentals - will give you a good idea on the high yield!



Prices in actually built developments are falling a good example is Jumeriah Beach Residence, Dubai Marina and the Springs development ....... http://www.gulfnews.com click on properties .... last year you could not find 3 bedroom flats under 2 million. Less than 20% of developments are actually built here, investors usually buy off plan and flip. Strict rent controls are creating difficulties for landlords...trying to evict tenants is near impossible as is ramping the rent. Those who did buy in 2004/2005 have made good returns but there is less attraction now.


Dubai imposes 5% rent cap

Dubai will maintain a cap on rental increases to curb inflation in 2008 but reduce it to 5% from 7% this year, the Gulf News quoted the Dubai Land Department as saying.

The new rate comes into effect on January 1 amid concerns that demand for property continues to outstrip supply, driving up rents in the booming Gulf trade and tourism hub.

The newspaper gave no reason for the reduced cap, but economists say soaring rents threaten to undermine Dubai's strategy of attracting investment and expatriates, as companies begin to consider less costly cities in the Gulf.
Story continues below ↓
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EFG-Hermes, Egypt's largest investment bank, predicted in a recent research report that residential property prices would begin to fall in 2009, a year later than initially expected because of a delay in the delivery of construction projects.

The delays will result in a continuing shortage of residential units and prices could rise 10-15% this year and 5-10% in 2008, peaking in the second half, EFG-Hermes said. The report, released in September, had predicted the rent cap was likely to be reduced to 5% for next year.

Abu Dhabi, the largest of the United Arab Emirates' seven members, Sharjah, home to many expatriates who work in Dubai, and smaller emirates have also set rent caps in recent years.

Dubai was the first UAE emirate to open its real estate market to foreign investment in 2002, triggering a boom that has driven both property prices and rents higher.

The Dubai government set a rent rise cap of 7% for 2007 to help tackle inflation, which hit a 19-year high of 9.3% in 2006.

The UAE Central Bank says rising rents are the primary driver of inflation in country, whose population is growing fast.

Dubai's population, which is more than 85% comprised of foreigners, is growing at an average 7.9% a year and may rise to 1.9 million by 2010 from 1.4 million now, EFG-Hermes said.
Desert Knight
Sorry dubaiexpat, but I would say you are wrong.

I've been looking at both resale villas and apartments for the last few months and prices are going UP and up pretty quickly at the moment.
Ferrari430
Dubaiexpat - you are talking total bol**cks!

This time last year you could buy in JBR for between 1000 - 1200 dirhams psf. Now prices are 1700 - 2000 dirhams and for
direct seaview apartments in JBR they are around 2500 dirhams psf. (not to mention when these were released 4 years ago they were selling for around 400 dirhams psf)

I check the prices almost everyday, have bought 5 properties over the last 4 years so know exactly how prices move from month to month. (it is in my interest to keep up with the market). Most properties advertised in gulfnews are fake (in the sense that agents advertise with lower prices to attract enquiries - in most cases if you call them they will tell you it is sold!)

I checked the betterhomes website today - there are 60 properties in JBR, the cheapest studio at 750 sqft is around 1.35 million.
Last year I could have bought this for around 800K.

Their has been a MASSIVE price hike in completed units in the last year. That is the truth
Ferrari430
Dubai real estate soon to be the most expensive in the world?

The idea that Dubai will soon boast the most expensive real estate in the world is not as absurd as it sounds. All it takes is a modest extrapolation of growth trends for rentals in the Dubai International Financial Centre, and a continuation of the current cooling off in markets like London Prime and this is a fact.

Dubai's office market continues to suffer from an acute shortage of space, with 98 per cent occupancy in the new financial zone, the Dubai International Financial Centre, which has been hugely successful in attracting global financial firms to the emirate.

The latest recruit this week is Thames River Capital, a boutique fund-of-funds investment manager based in Berkeley Square. The latter told AME Info that rents in this prime London location had fallen by around 30 per cent and that the rent it had just agreed in Dubai was not far off the rent it had just paid for additional space in Mayfair.

It requires only a little imagination then to see that if the UK enters a recession, and the financial services sector already seems to be in one, then rents in Mayfair will fall further. Meanwhile, new companies are arriving in Dubai every day, particularly in the financial services industry as the attractions of Gulf oil revenues are magnetic.

Dubai calling
The DIFC is the most expensive district in Dubai followed closely by the nearby offices of the Sheikh Zayed Road, actually the closest Thames River Capital could get to the DIFC which is effectively full.

A new report from local investment bank Shuaa Capital suggests that new commercial space coming on stream this year will be picked up rapidly.

'Starting in 2009 we expect to start witnessing a more rapid switch for many companies from the older CBD to the new one along the Sheikh Zayed Road and further down to the Tecom area,' says the report. 'These large office supplies are expected to apply downward pressure on rents, especially around the Bur Dubai and Deira area.'

London falling
However, that would still leave very high rental levels in the DIFC in 2009 at a time when in the global financial markets rents may be tumbling due to the impact of a bear market. The poor start to 2008 in global equity markets is already leading analysts to project a bear market, with the US likely to officially declare a full bear market as soon as this week.

In a bear market financial companies fire staff with enormous speed and so the demand for office space shrinks, particularly for new space. This exerts a powerful downward pressure on rents which have become inflated during the bull market.

Colliers International last week produced a report showing office space in the DIFC lagging only marginally behind London Prime in cost. So all it really takes is further weakness in London rents and modest growth in Dubai and the emirate will have the most expensive office space in the world.


catara
QUOTE (Ferrari430 @ Feb 1 2008, 05:43 PM) *
Dubai real estate soon to be the most expensive in the world?

OK.
fws
I also have properties in Dubai and, like Ferrari, I also check the prices regularly. Mine are off-plan and so have not experienced the hike which comes as soon as they are completed. I bought a studio in Dubai Marina last February for 567,000AED - the cheapest now is over 800,000 AED. Dubai prices are still increasing rapidly and are likely to continue to do so. Construction costs for everything from materials to shipping are increasing, land prices are increasing and because the dirham is tied to the dollar, inflation is being forced upwards. The doom-mongers are missing out here.
OLDFTB
I don't know about Dubai being on a knife edge but i know i am....... wondering when this bloody thread is going to come to an end!


fws
Dinna read it, then laddie.
dubaiexpat
QUOTE (Desert Knight @ Feb 1 2008, 03:38 PM) *
Sorry dubaiexpat, but I would say you are wrong.

I've been looking at both resale villas and apartments for the last few months and prices are going UP and up pretty quickly at the moment.


I am only quoting what the search function gives in Gulfnews..........below are 3 bedroom villa/properties under 2 million. Also studio flats in Dubai Marina under 800,000. Its going to be an interesting year in Dubai.


Dubai Marina, Manchester Tower, 3 B/R AED 1.9 million
Location: Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: GROUP SEVEN PROPERTIES LLC
Published 2nd February 2008



APARTMENTS, Dubai Investment Park AED 1,781,216
Location: Dubai Investment Park, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: CHOUERI REAL ESTATE
Published 2nd February 2008

DUBAI MARINA - Manchester Tower, 3 B/R AED 1,957,380
Location: Dubai Marina, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: KINGS PALACE REAL ESTATE
Published 31st January 2008

Jumeirah Lake Towers, Armada P1 - 3 bedroom AED 1.8 million
Location: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: AZARIA REAL ESTATE BROKERS
Published 31st January 2008

Springs, Type 4M, 3 B/R AED 1,750,000
Location: Springs, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Villas
Company: DOCKLAND REAL ESTATE BROKER
Published 31st January 2008

Jumeirah Lake Towers, Icon 11 - 2 Units 3 B/R AED 1,844,058
Location: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: THE BUSINESS REAL ESTATE
Published 31st January 2008

DIC, Sahara Meadows, 3 B/R AED 1,760,000
Location: Dubai Internet City, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Villas
Company: THE REAL ESTATE SPECIALISTS
Published 31st January 2008

3 B/R, Town Houses, Near Jebel Ali AED 1,510,000
Location: Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Villas
Company: FORTUNE HOME REAL ESTATE
Published 29th January 2008

THE GREENS - The Links, 3 B/R Flat, 1650 sq.ft. AED 1,650,000
Location: Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: WIND FZE LLC
Published 24th January 2008


Studio Flats Dubai Marina under 800,000 .

Marina Pearl, Studio AED 655,200
Location: Dubai Marina, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: studio
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: SHERWOODS REAL ESTATE
Published 2nd February 2008


Dubai Marina, Al Areifi Marina, Studio AED 510,000
Location: Dubai Marina, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: studio
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: BETTER HOMES LLC
Published 31st January 2008




Converted Lurker
QUOTE (fws @ Feb 1 2008, 09:08 AM) *
I also have properties in Dubai and, like Ferrari, I also check the prices regularly. Mine are off-plan and so have not experienced the hike which comes as soon as they are completed. I bought a studio in Dubai Marina last February for 567,000AED - the cheapest now is over 800,000 AED. Dubai prices are still increasing rapidly and are likely to continue to do so. Construction costs for everything from materials to shipping are increasing, land prices are increasing and because the dirham is tied to the dollar, inflation is being forced upwards. The doom-mongers are missing out here.

so you don't have properties in Dubai you have a futures contract ohmy.gif unlucky. BTW yours is one of the most stunning examples of denial I've ever read on HPC, well played wink.gif
fws
QUOTE (Converted Lurker @ Feb 3 2008, 01:58 AM) *
so you don't have properties in Dubai you have a futures contract ohmy.gif unlucky. BTW yours is one of the most stunning examples of denial I've ever read on HPC, well played wink.gif


You seem incredibly arrogant but as I presume you have been to Dubai and are familiar with the market out there, why is at a stunning example of denial? Please enlighten me. I am also curious as to why you assume the purchase of off-plan property is a futures contract. Having bought several off-plan properties over the last nine years, I know how off-plan purchasing works. However I am not familiar with gambling on the stock market which is what I had always assumed futures contracts to be.
Ferrari430
QUOTE (dubaiexpat @ Feb 2 2008, 10:15 AM) *
I am only quoting what the search function gives in Gulfnews..........below are 3 bedroom villa/properties under 2 million. Also studio flats in Dubai Marina under 800,000. Its going to be an interesting year in Dubai.


Yes, you are absolutely correct - prices will be heading north bigtime in 2008
forestfire
Doesn't Dubai sound like a wonderful place to live...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/arti...in_page_id=1811
Dubai
Prices may still well head North for a while longer. Those that had the courage to buy in 2005 have done very, very well for themselves. Those after, very well.

The bottom line is, it's pricing itself out of the global market. Companies pay employees' rents in Dubai (well, established companies, that is). The only reason they do that is to attract and retain employees. If you want to employ a "family man". you have to fork out for a minimum three bed house. In a nice part of town (Jumeirah being the prime area). That'll set you back, what, 300k (AED) now? That's close to 50k GBP..... doubling a lot of peoples salaries or more! Plus car, school, "holiday money"..... because of the present rents, it will cost a company more to employ someone in Dubai than Europe.... a lot more. These companies have to increase their prices to cover costs.... becoming far less competitive.

In the industry I'm in, I know for a fact that companies that were staunch supporters of Dubai are leaving, finding Singapore, Shanghai, Jakarta and Hong Kong more cost effective. And it's much easier to attract employees to live in those places too.

Dubai has attracted a lot of chancers, enticed by the dream of big bucks quick. Most have succeeded. But those that remain greedy and don't know when to get out will lose everything they've made. And more. 100% correct, guaranteed.

Dubai is fast becoming a mirage..... the dream is great but the reality will hit them hard, in the nuts, very soon.


The above doesn't even take into account what will happen to the place if the usa goes to war with Iran.... a nightmare scenario for the UAE.
dubaiexpat
Just to add to the healthy evidence based discussion on this forum.


07.02.2008

by Jody Clarke

When a property developer starts handing out free BMWs and Bentleys with every apartment sale, you can be sure that a property bubble isn’t far off popping.

DAMAC, a Dubai based property firm is giving away a free car with every commitment to purchase an apartment over the next three weeks. And according to Mohammed Ouhitt at its Mayfair office, you won’t just get any car. A studio or one-bed apartment, starting from £120,000, comes with a BMW 1-Series, while if you nab one of its signature penthouses you’ll be driving home in a Bentley.

It seems crass and desperate, but you can understand DAMAC’s logic. Sentiment is beginning to turn against the city’s property sector, as visitors to the city begin to realise that a building site-cum-beach, ski and shopping destination, where Blackberry-touting, sharp-suited corporate lawyers mix freely in hotel bars with Bermuda short-wearing 40 somethings, isn’t exactly an ideal tourist destination.

Or a place to buy a holiday apartment...

"A bubble just waiting to burst"
Indeed, according to almost half the respondents in the latest arabianbusiness.com survey, the Dubai property market, which soared 19% last year, is a “bubble just waiting to burst”. Another 25% said that the market does not offer any real long-term value, and is “obviously going to decline.”

According to Global Property Guide, Dubai is swamped with new properties to be delivered in 2008 and 2008. “A slump in demand from international buyers due to a global economic slowdown could exacerbate the problem. The speculative nature of its housing market makes Dubai highly susceptible.”

“There is a confused feel about the place” says even the famously bullish Stuart Law, of property company Assetz, where “families on holiday mix with businessmen in suits. I was stuck there on a dusty street, waiting for a taxi with building going on everywhere, thinking, why on earth would anyone want to come here on holiday? There’s a million other places you could go.”

Why Hong Kong property looks much healthier
And if you’ve got a spare few bob, Hong Kong should offer a lot more value than the dry windswept streets of Dubai. Housing transactions are soaring, as mortgage rates in the former British colony go negative. They are now below the rate of inflation at 3.8%, as the city-state is forced to slash rates almost in line with the US Federal Reserve. This is because its currency is pegged with the US Dollar. And although Bernanke and Co. over in Washington are surely fuelling another almighty global asset bubble, this is one which shouldn’t burst just yet.

"Mass market property prices are still 35-40 percent below their peak in 1997," after which they dropped 65%, says Nicholas Kwan, Asian head of research at Standard Chartered Bank on Reuters. "So even if they rise 30-40 percent, prices would only be what they were 10 years ago," he said. "It's hard to argue that would be a bubble."

Indeed, in the next 2 years, one Merrill Lynch analyst has predicted a 50% jump in property prices, as the booming Chinese economy continues to drive the Hong Kong market along.

One of the best ways to access it is through a REIT, many of which are now have attractive yields. These include Sunlight REIT (0435HK), on a 5.6% yield, a Prosperity REIT (808HK), trading on a forward p/e of 32, Hysan Development (14HK), a property development company whose properties include commercial rental and luxury residential buildings in Hong Kong. It's trading on a forward p/e of 25, while Regal Real Estate Investment Trust (1881HK), a REIT investing in hotel properties is trading on 16 times forward earnings. Shares in Real are now trading hands at HK$2.08, but Paul Yau at Merrill Lynch and Gregory Lui at Deutsche Bank both have price targets above HK$3 for the stock.

Turning to the stock markets...
Ferrari430
QUOTE (Dubai @ Feb 9 2008, 05:31 AM) *
Prices may still well head North for a while longer. Those that had the courage to buy in 2005 have done very, very well for themselves. Those after, very well.

The bottom line is, it's pricing itself out of the global market. Companies pay employees' rents in Dubai (well, established companies, that is). The only reason they do that is to attract and retain employees. If you want to employ a "family man". you have to fork out for a minimum three bed house. In a nice part of town (Jumeirah being the prime area). That'll set you back, what, 300k (AED) now? That's close to 50k GBP..... doubling a lot of peoples salaries or more! Plus car, school, "holiday money"..... because of the present rents, it will cost a company more to employ someone in Dubai than Europe.... a lot more. These companies have to increase their prices to cover costs.... becoming far less competitive.

In the industry I'm in, I know for a fact that companies that were staunch supporters of Dubai are leaving, finding Singapore, Shanghai, Jakarta and Hong Kong more cost effective. And it's much easier to attract employees to live in those places too.

Dubai has attracted a lot of chancers, enticed by the dream of big bucks quick. Most have succeeded. But those that remain greedy and don't know when to get out will lose everything they've made. And more. 100% correct, guaranteed.

Dubai is fast becoming a mirage..... the dream is great but the reality will hit them hard, in the nuts, very soon.


The above doesn't even take into account what will happen to the place if the usa goes to war with Iran.... a nightmare scenario for the UAE.


What you are saying in terms of being expensive is true...

but doommongers like yourselves have been saying exactly the same things for the last 3 years and have been predicting that the market will crash the following year ie 2005/2006/2007 and now 2008. FACT IS IT HADNT HAPPENNED. SO YOU WERE WRONG. What makes your predictions right now? you do not have the credibility

There are many facts that will make the dubai market buyoant in future

1) Only 60% of the original planned projects are being built (40% have been scrapped) according to the head of RERA.
Given this will the oversupply ever materialise?

2) Dubai is the business/tourism hub of middle east - and the middle east (GCC) is a big part of the world and nowadays a very rich one too with the 100 dollar/barrel oil wealth. After 9/11 the oil money has been diverted from the US and west to here and particularly concentrated in the Dubai.

3) Most businesses thus even if they find it expensive wants to have a base in Dubai. This is because of dubai being a business hub and has a brand factor associated with it - no one wants to miss out on the money in future. Proof is why is there a 2 year waiting list for companies to find office space in Dubai international financial centre?

4) Dubai has still one of the highest immigrations in the world. So this dispels the fact that inspite of rents/accomodation being expensive it is not widely deterring people from moving in here. Because of inflation, salaries have gone up massively over the past 2/3 years in line with rents/house prices. Proof is that, for dubai government employees salaries have been raised a whopping 70% over the past 2 years.

5) Dubai is well on its way in becoming the likes of Singapore/Hong Kong in the near future and the prices in Dubai are not as high as in either of these places and hence this justifies the growth so far and for the forseeable future

6) There is a general consensus amonst the developer/investor community that the dubai govt (sheikh Mo) is now gradually tightening the supply situation through new legislations. One of them being introducing the escrow law for developers where any monies paid to the developer by the investors will now go into an escrow account and will be released in stages during the development. This has put lot of the smaller and cowboy developers out of the market. Proof is that there has hardly been any new projects announced in Business Bay in the latter half of 2007 and hence prices here for existing projects have skyrocketed from 1500 dirhams psf to 2500 - 3000 dirhams psf

7) If US attacks Iran - more iranians (they are one of the largest investors/communities in Dubai) will come to Dubai from war stricken Iran and prices will edge up further.

The doommongers here either have missed the boat in buying dubai property (so suffering the sour grapes syndrome) or in most cases are ignorant about the facts and figures as far as dubai is concerned and find difficult to justify what they say.
50 cool 50
[font="Verdana"][/font]
QUOTE (Converted Lurker @ Jan 28 2008, 11:28 PM) *
hmm...just done that ...er..no resales now there's a surprise. Now tell me, where are 'jonny foreigners' (AKA mugs) allowed to buy? In your own time... dry.gif


There are thousands of resales>>>>
BAD BAD SIGN
Flip Flip Flip
!!!!!FLIPPING FALSE ECONOMY!!!!!
Ferrari430
February 2008
Escrow Account has helped instill confidence, says expert
The establishment of the Escrow Account has started attracting a lot of institutional funding into the UAE, according to a leading property developer.
Talking to The Business Weekly, Imran Khan, CEO of the Al Barakah Group, said the new law has brought in much confidence and this has prompted big institutions abroad to seriously look at investing in the UAE's property market.
"In the past, institutional investors from the US, Western Europe and the Far East have shied away from the UAE market in the absence of proper regulations, clarity and certainty. Now, with the Escrow being established, they feel comfortable investing in the market," Khan said.
Changing times
"Earlier, there were speculative investors who came here to invest and make a fast buck. But things are changing and institutions are showing a keen interest in making long-term investments and this will help stabilise the market," he added.
Fortunately, this is happening at a time when the US economy is witnessing a down-turn in its economy, and that may be the reason why more and more American institutions are showing greater interest here, of late, according to Khan, a chartered accountant, who has worked in the United Kingdom for more than two decades.
Real estate funds, real estate trusts and pension funds are entering this market through different routes and vehicles.
However, Khan said there are parts of properties that are already overpriced and these could see a sort of correction in the coming years.
"These are the areas where prices have been stagnant for some time now," he added. The rental yield is very attractive in the UAE compared with many other developed markets.
"As against a rental yield of about two per cent in the developed market including the United Kingdom, Dubai properties are offering something like 10 per cent and this has resulted in several investors moving funds from the United Kingdom to Dubai.
The poor exchange value of the dirham against the pound, owing to the UAE currency's pegging to dollar, has also rendered buying UAE properties attractive," Khan added.
By Amit Chettupuzha
© The Business Weekly 2008

Ferrari430
QUOTE (dubaiexpat @ Feb 1 2008, 05:30 AM) *
Prices in actually built developments are falling a good example is Jumeriah Beach Residence, Dubai Marina and the Springs development ....... http://www.gulfnews.com click on properties .... last year you could not find 3 bedroom flats under 2 million. Less than 20% of developments are actually built here, investors usually buy off plan and flip. Strict rent controls are creating difficulties for landlords...trying to evict tenants is near impossible as is ramping the rent. Those who did buy in 2004/2005 have made good returns but there is less attraction now.


DUBAIEXPAT - PRICES HAVE BEEN FALLING?? - READ THIS BELOW - THE PROOF IS IN THE PUDDING - YOU SEEM TO BE A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF KNOW LITTLE BUT SAY MORE.

THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED AT THE BURJ DUBAI COMPLEX ON SATURDAY NIGHT

Hundreds queue all night for Burj Dubai units

by Anil Bhoyrul on Sunday, 10 February 2008

HIGH-END: Buyers waited all night to snap up units in Downtown Burj Dubai.
More than 300 people spent Friday night queuing up outside Emaar Properties' Burj Dubai sales centre, desperate to grab several new units in the developer's flagship project.

In unprecedented scenes, some buyers are thought to have paid nearly 8 million dirhams ($2.18 million) for one bedroom apartments in the Burj itself, and over 2 million dirhams for one bedroom apartments in Downtown Burj Dubai.

Emaar announced on Thursday it would be hosting a sales event for an "exclusive collection" of high-end homes drawn from various residential projects in Downtown Burj Dubai.
Residential projects included The Old Town, The Residences, South Ridge, Burj Dubai Lake Hotel & Serviced Apartments and The Dubai Mall Hotel & Serviced Apartments, some of which are ready to move into immediately.

The units officially went on sale at 9am on Saturday morning. However, by 3am queues had already built up, with many eager buyers bringing blankets, food and drink with them. Many were armed with cheque books and passports, keen to snap up anything they could.

"It got busy very early. The rumours have been going around of units going for 3,000 dirhams per square foot, which is very high but most people still think the price is going to rise a lot more as the Burj Dubai nears completion," said Robert Macnair, branch manager of property consultants Sherwoods.

"Many of these properties have gone up 25% in value within the last three months alone.”

Downtown Burj Dubai is being marketed as "a city within a city", and will include 30,000 homes, nine hotels, 6.2 acres of parkland, 19 residential towers, the Dubai Mall, and a 30-acre manmade lake.

The Burj Dubai, the tallest building in the world, will be the centrepiece of the $20 billion development.

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/510758-hund...bai-units?ln=en

Ferrari430
FASCINATING READ ON THE PALM JUMEIRAH

Welcome to WAG-on-Sea!
By ROBERT HARDMAN - More by this author » Last updated at 20:20pm on 1st February 2008

There are fish leaping out of the water in front of David and Victoria Beckham's tinted French windows.
Nearby, the freshly raked sand on Michael Owen's private beach has not had a single footprint on it all morning, let alone a game of football.
The sting of the midday sun is tempered by a feisty sea breeze which is somehow making no impact whatsoever on the date tree towering over the swimming pool of another England footballer, Joe Cole.
I soon discover that this is because it is not actually a tree at all but a telecoms mast disguised as one. Perish the thought of an eyesore in these parts.
Scroll down for more...

Fantasy Island: Home to the Beckhams

It may be quiet today but it will soon liven up once this becomes WAG-Sur-Mer, a sunny, blingy enclave for some of our most eminent soccer stars, their wives and their girlfriends, not to mention all the millionaires, billionaires, bankers, racing drivers, Arab nobility, tax exiles, hedge funders and even the odd president who make up the extraordinary bunch of neighbours on what is the most ambitious engineering project in modern history.
The furniture vans are unloading the leather sofas and the jumbo plasma screens into 1,500 shiny new homes and, at long last, life is finally taking shape here on Palm Jumeirah.
This is the first of Dubai's famous 'Palms' — the vast, man-made archipelagos shaped like palm trees and crammed with mod-con real estate which will eventually stretch for miles into the Arabian Gulf.
Now that the first of these gargantuan social and geographical experiments is virtually complete, I have arrived with a very simple question: what on earth is it like? The answer: nothing else.
"It's an Enid Blyton existence for the children," says British events organiser Gilly Geisler.
Together with her airline pilot husband, Clive, and their two young sons, they have become the first family to take up residence here.
"People might say Dubai is brash or soulless," adds Gilly as the turquoise waters lap the family's stretch of beach.
"But what is more natural than the simple things — sand and sea and being outdoors?"
Scroll down for more...

Robert Hardman tests the waters by the beach-front villas
Just six years ago, the spot on which I am standing would have been 30ft underwater and two miles out to sea. But seven million tons of rock and 94 million cubic metres of dredged-up sand later, it is now Palm Jumeirah.
It has given Dubai an extra 50 miles of coastline (it only had 45 in the first place).
And this is just the baby of Dubai's offshore projects. Two more Palms nearly twice the size of this one are under construction, and a string of islands in the shape of the world have just been created further out to sea.
Dubai is just one of seven ministates which make up the United Arab Emirates but it is arguably the largest and most ambitious building site in the world.
And the pace of development continues to defy the sceptics, the critics — and reality.
Here on Palm Jumeirah, I feel as if I have parted company with the "normal" world and strayed into the set of some sun-kissed aspirational soap.
Every branch or "frond" of this palm tree is a mile long, sealed off from the outside world and packed on both sides with substantial houses, all of which have their own pool and beach.
You can leave open the front door of your £3 million home, safe in the knowledge that the only intruder will be the occasional gust of sand (round here, crime is low, security high and punishment severe).
You can swim or paddle to your neighbours for dinner half a mile up the road knowing that you will not be mown down by a yob on a jetski because there aren't any in these residential areas — jetskis or yobs, that is.
If you get bored with your own pool and beach, you will be able to hop on a monorail to one of the largest water theme parks in the world.
And if you get bored with water, there will soon be a mile-long shopping mall and a rather familiar-looking pier-cum-entertainment centre attached to the outer breakwater.
It is called the QE2.
The onetime "Queen of the Seas" has been bought by a local developer for £50million and will spend the rest of her days here staging cabaret nights and gala buffets for the perma-tanned hordes.
There's no point sniffily deriding all this as "naff". You might as well complain that Venice is "wet".
Dubai sells itself as a tax-free sun trap, not Tuscany. In little more than a decade, it has acquired a Manhattan skyline but without any parallel social or cultural evolution.
It is bound to be more Vegas than Versailles.
By British standards, it is a monument to political incorrectness. It has a carbon footprint to melt Greenland, it locks up all miscreants, it tolerates alcohol but not binge-drinking, it insists on marriage before cohabitation, it censors its Press and it has no MPs.
Oh, and there's no tax.
Funnily enough, quite a lot of people seem to like the arrangement.
"It's black and white here and I like that. Everyone knows the rules," says Andy Dukes, a Yorkshire-born IT expert, who, at the age of just 44, is retired and adamant he will never work again.
Having sold his electronicgreetings card business for an eight-figure sum a few years ago, Andy abandoned St Albans for life as a tax exile, choosing Dubai ahead of Monaco.
"The moment I read about the Palm, I knew I wanted to be here," he says over coffee on the lawn between his swimming pool (kept at 30 degrees all year round) and his stretch of beach.
His wife and young daughters live in Britain during term time and join him for the holidays.
When they are not here, Andy likes to do as little as possible, aided by a Filipino manservant who does all the shopping and cleaning.
"I might go to the gym for a couple of hours, I swim, I'm probably the only expat in Dubai who does his own gardening. And I see friends. I am very happy just unwinding."
On a very busy day, he might drive across to the mainland to hang out with the in-crowd at Le Meridien's Barasti beach bar. Otherwise, he is happy to go all week without stepping off the Palm.
Family aside, what does he miss about Britain? He thinks hard before replying: "Nothing much."
Isn't it all, ultimately, a rather stultifying existence? Once you have spent a week or two admiring your private beach, what is there to do round here?
Andy laughs at the familiar complaint. "People love to knock Dubai. Look, everywhere has its faults. This is just a different sort of place. And the appetite to get things done is amazing," he says.
Further along this particular branch of the Palm — Frond E to give it its less-than-exotic name — Gilly Geisler has just been doing the school run and the house is buzzing.
"I like the fact that we have the biggest swimming pool there is — the sea," says her eldest son, Harry, 11, fresh home from another day at Repton Dubai, the local outpost of the British public school which gave us Jeremy Clarkson and three Archbishops of Canterbury.
Harry's brother, Alexander, eight, is soon racing around on the beach where he likes to catch fish for the barbecue.
"I caught a stingray the other day," he says proudly.
On weekends, the boys start their day with a swimming race across to the opposite frond and back.
As for the supposed lack of culture, Gilly points out that, for the past 16 years, she has been the organiser of the annual medieval festival at Herstmonceux Castle in Sussex.
"We plan it from here and go back every summer to run it. So the boys get Dubai all winter and then spend summer at a 15th century castle."
There are no shops within walking distance. Even when the "Golden Mile" shopping mall does open up on the main trunk of the Palm, it will be easier to buy a Rolex than a pint of milk and a paper.
But it has always been assumed that everyone on the Palm has staff to do the errands. Hence, every villa comes with a staff flat.
There is a certain uniformity to the houses. Original investors had the option of a 7,000 sq ft "signature" villa or a 5,000 sq ft "garden" villa and a limited choice of architectural styles such as "Mediterranean" or "Arab" (think Brookside meets- Footballers' Wives).
But it would be hard to find a more bizarre mix of neighbours.
Not far from the Beckhams' signature home on Frond K sits the holiday home of former Formula One world champion, Michael Schumacher.
His sporting celebrity has granted him a "tip plot", the much sought-after end point of a frond.
Most of these belong to members of various royal houses in the region.
For example, a member of the ruling clan of Abu Dhabi, the al- Nahyans, owns another "tip plot" further down, just opposite one belonging to a member of Dubai's royal family, the al-Maktoums.
Over on Frond O — on the opposite frond to West Ham's Kieron Dyer — Hamid Karzai, president of landlocked Afghanistan, has his bolthole beside the sea.
As for the marine environment, the developers, Nakheel, reject criticisms that they are threatening the eco-system. Indeed, they say that the project is so well-irrigated that it is actually bringing in new sealife.
"We're getting corals, sea grasses and fish that weren't here before," says Shaun Lenehan, director of environment.
To comprehend the scale of it all, you have to see it from the air. In fact, we have to ask the helicopter pilot to go up to 5,000ft just so that we can squeeze the entire thing into one camera lens.
I have seen the "artist's impression" many times before. To see the real thing is simply jaw-dropping.
Three miles long and three miles wide, it is exactly the shape of a palm tree and it is protected by a huge, circular seven-mile breakwater which will house 30 luxury hotels.
At the outermost point, they are building the largest hotel in the Middle East, the 1,500-bed Atlantis which rises through the haze like a colossal strawberry blancmange.
The main trunk of the palm is connected to the mainland by a six-lane bridge. At the base is a cluster of apartment blocks with 1,000 flats and a building site which will shortly become the "Golden Mile" (and they haven't modelled it on Blackpool).
Standing astride all this will be a 60-storey, two-legged skyscraper built by America's Donald Trump and called — with his trademark modesty — the Trump Tower.
Arching off the trunk are 16 fronds.
Each one is a mile-long finger of perfect sand above which 80 or so villas have been packed in on each side.
When these houses went on the market in 2002 — long before there was any land, let alone a show home — they were snapped up in days.
Signature villas (seven bedrooms and 130ft of beach frontage) were priced at £660,000 and garden villas (five bedrooms and 65ft of beach frontage) were pitched at £430,000.
The England football team were training here at the time, en route to the 2002 World Cup, and 13 players took the plunge (it is rumoured some got a VIP deal, though no one will confirm it).
Most, like the Beckhams and Gary Neville, opted for a signature villa.
Some were more cautious. Michael Owen bought a "garden villa" and paid a bit extra for a third floor.
Six years on, the developers have now handed over the keys and the original investors are as smug as,Simon Cowell.
The market value of a "signature" home is now £3million and a "garden" villa will fetch upwards of £1.5million. They are also some of the only freeholds available to Westerners in this part of the world — although the exact legality of "freehold" has yet to be tested here.
For Clive Geisler, there is a sense of vindication.
"When we scraped together the deposit, people were laughing at the stupidity of investing in a house on a piece of land that didn't even exist," he says.
"I suppose we were pioneers in a way."
In the meantime, everyone awaits the arrival of the footballers with interest.
This place may be a bit low on Renaissance frescoes and opera houses but where else could you open your front door to find David Beckham asking: "Can I have my ball back, please?"

dubaiexpat
Back to reality:Gulf News Watch:

3 Bedroom below 2 million .....


Jumeirah Lake Towers, Armada Towers AED 1,967,794
Location: Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: BETTER HOMES LLC
Published 11th February 2008

Dubai Marina, Manchester Tower, 3 B/R AED 1.9 million
Location: Dubai Marina, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: GROUP SEVEN PROPERTIES LLC
Published 11th February 2008


Al Dhafrah 2, 6th flr., 3 br AED 1,966,500
Location: Greens / The Views, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: DUBAI WATERFRONT PROPERTIES
Published 11th February 2008

DUBAI INVESTMENT PARK - RITAJ - 3 B/R AED 1,781,216
Location: Dubai Investment Park, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: CHOUERI REAL ESTATE
Published 11th February 2008

JUMEIRAH VILLAGE SOUTH, The Lawns AED 1,733,080
Location: Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: MERCURI INTERNATIONAL REAL ESTATE BROKERS
Published 11th February 2008

Dubai Marina, Marina Wharf II AED 1,850,000
Location: Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: VISTA REAL ESTATE
Published 11th February 2008

LINKS VIEW APARTMENT - 3 B/R AED 1,829,250
Location: Dubai Sports City, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: ARYENE PROPERTIES LLC
Published 10th February 2008

Dubai Silicon Oasis - FGB 20-2002, 3 B/R Duplex AED 1,846,325
Location: Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: ARYENE PROPERTIES LLC
Published 10th February 2008

Al Dhafrah 2, 6th flr., 1214 sq.ft., 3 B/R AED 1,966,500
Location: Greens / The Views, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: DUBAI WATERFRONT PROPERTIES
Published 10th February 2008

Dubai Marina, Manchester Tower - 3 B/R AED 1.7 million
Location: Dubai Marina, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: RESPONSE REAL ESTATE
Published 10th February 2008


Dubai Marina - La Riviera Tower, 3 B/R AED 1,957,508
Location: Dubai Marina, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: AL JABAL REAL ESTATE
Published 10th February 2008

GREENS Hot Offer 3 B/R hall, Al Ghaf AED 1,950,000
Location: Greens, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: SKY VISION REAL ESTATE
Published 9th February 2008


THE GREENS - The Links, 3 B/R Flat, 1650 sq.ft. AED 1,650,000
Location: Dubai
Number of bedrooms: 3
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: WIND FZE LLC


Studio's in Marina below 800,000

Dubai Marina, Harbour Residence, Studio AED 598,500
Location: Dubai Marina, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: studio
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: BOND REAL ESTATE
Published 11th February 2008

Harbour Residence, Studio Hotel Apt., AED 746,586
Location: Dubai Marina, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: studio
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: BOND REAL ESTATE
Published 11th February 2008


Dubai Marina, DEC Tower Studio & 2 B/R AED 774,306
Location: Dubai Marina, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: studio / 2
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: BOND REAL ESTATE
Published 11th February 2008

DUBAI MARINA, Marina Diamond 1, Studio AED 754,000
Location: Dubai Marina, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: studio
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: MERCURI INTERNATIONAL REAL ESTATE BROKERS
Published 11th February 2008

Giovanni Boutique Suites, Studio AED 671,788
Location: Dubai Marina, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: studio
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: AL MAS REAL ESTATE
Published 11th February 2008

Studio, Zumurud AED 617,000
Location: Dubai Marina, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: studio
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: THE RIGHT CHOICE REAL ESTATE BROKER
Published 11th February 2008

Dubai Marina, Marina Diamond 1, studio AED 752,960
Location: Dubai Marina, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: studio
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: DUBAI WATERFRONT PROPERTIES
Published 11th February 2008


Yaht Bay, 10th flr., Built up: 474 sq.ft., studio AED 754,000
Location: Dubai Marina, Dubai
Number of bedrooms: studio
Property type: For Sale - Flats
Company: DUBAI WATERFRONT PROPERTIES
Published 11th February 2008



Desert Knight
QUOTE (dubaiexpat @ Feb 11 2008, 08:48 PM) *
Back to reality:Gulf News Watch:

3 Bedroom below 2 million .....


The reality for me is - the 4 bedroom Alvorado Villas in Arabian Ranches I was looking at just before Xmas were about 3.9 million dirhams.
The same Villas today? 5.1 million dirhams - plus!
Ferrari430
DUBAIEXPAT - you are a sad case!!

What is the point of listing prices if you CAN NOT PROVE WHAT PRICES WERE 1 or 2 YEARS AGO?

Prices in Manchester tower say for a 3 bed apt is 2 mil - but prices for a 3 bed in burj dubai is 6 mil!!!


why the difference - LOCATION and QUALITY the same you would find anywhere in the world

Manchester tower for example is on the **** end of dubai marina and is one of the worst developments there and even here prices
have trebled since launch - and that is what you need to point out

Face it - you have ZERO knowledge about Dubai Property and are starting to sound irritating by posting the same post twice.

Sorry you lost out on Dubai mate - but maybe its time to move on rolleyes.gif
Ferrari430
Ten reasons Dubai real estate will continue to boom

Dubai real estate may well be the next asset class bubble to be created by inappropriate interest rate levels set by the US, alongside Hong Kong property. But there are at least 10 good reasons to think the present realty boom in Dubai will continue for rather longer than many outside observers believe possible.

1. Dubai mortgage rates are around 8.5 per cent and have yet to adjust to the recent US rate cuts, which they have to do because of the dollar peg to the dirham. Just a couple of years ago local mortgage rates of seven per cent were available. Therefore the downward pressure on the cost of home finance is clear, and if the local mortgage market follows Hong Kong and becomes more competitive, then interest rates could go much lower, making it significantly cheaper to buy than rent. Real interest rates are already negative due to high local inflation.

2. Rental yields in the Dubai market of 7-10 per cent are abnormally high by international standards. Rents are unlikely to fall in a booming market, so it is more likely that rising capital values will gradually pressure yields down towards global levels. There is no reason why rental yields should be higher in a booming city like Dubai than in a city where the economic outlook is poorer.

3. The hype about Dubai development projects has admittedly duped even this skeptical correspondent over the years. The fact is that far less supply is coming on stream than promised by overenthusiastic developers, due partly to limited supplies of manpower and materials. Dubai Properties is one of the biggest and has just said it will deliver 5,000 units to the freehold market in 2008 which is not nearly enough to meet surging demand.

4. Dubai house prices are still low in absolute terms in comparison to other global cities with similar salary levels. The HSBC survey of house prices in comparison to per capita GDP put Dubai and Abu Dhabi near the bottom. This is a historic anomaly that will be eliminated by price rises.

5. Six years ago, when Dubai freehold began, it was a market without any formal legislation and regulatory infrastructure. Now it has world-class laws, a state-of-the-art land registry and a strongly-led regulatory authority. Hope has been replaced by experience.

6. The Dubai Financial Market crashed in 2006 pushing local investors into property as an alternative. It recovered in late 2007, but is now again trending downwards with global stocks, and has become highly volatile, shifting over 10 per cent in a day. Expect stock market participants to again seek a more stable alternative.

7. Indeed, the absence of investment alternatives is a major theme for 2008. Global stock markets have had their worst January in history. Recent US interest rate cuts leave deposits paying 2.8 per cent. This makes Dubai real estate look attractive as an alternative. Where else offers such a return?

8. In the same way that the local stock market crash attracted foreign bargain hunters to invest last year, foreign investors in search of yield are also increasingly investing in Dubai real estate. Problems in the UK housing market might be dissuading some buyers, but large numbers of oil-rich Russians, for example, are now buying in Dubai.

9. Dubai still has some undeveloped market niches in real estate, such as holiday lets and fractional ownership, which are big and even dominant market phenomena in many beach resorts around the world. This source of higher rental yield on property has therefore yet to be fully tapped.

10. The Dubai Government has been the most proactive developer in the emirate, and its recent legislation and regulatory initiatives suggest that this support is not only likely to continue, but will respond appropriately to any adverse market developments.
dubaiexpat
I love Dubai and the 4 properties that I bought in 2005 have provided real value not just in capital appreciation but also rent however money will always find better returns and Dubai is not living up to its hype.

August 2007
Living in Dubai is not wonderful and glamorous, as many would have you believe. Forget about what you’ve read, seen, and heard; those shiny buildings and manmade islands are all just smoke and mirrors. There are so many things wrong with this place that I have decided to compile a list, a must read if you are considering a potential move to Dubai.

1. There is no standard address system making mail-to-the door delivery impossible. In fact, it makes anything nearly impossible. The taxi driver, here for only two days, and having learned English from old Beatles albums has no clue where your house is. He won’t tell you that of course, he’ll just keep calling and saying, “Okay, okay. Yeah, yeah.” When you purchase something that requires delivery they do not have an address line, but a box where you are expected to draw a map. Not able to draw a map? Explain like this: I live on the street after the airport road, but before the roundabout. Go past the mosque and make a U-turn.

2. The government blocks all web sites that it deems “offensive” to the “religious, moral, and cultural values” of the UAE. That’s hard to swallow for a freedom loving American, but I get it. I do not understand, however, why all VOIP access and related web sites are blocked. I guess the government also takes offense to people inexpensively contacting their families back home. You’re welcome to call using the analog service provided by the government-owned telephone monopoly, but it will cost you a whole lot more. So much so, in fact, your frequency of calls will be greatly diminished if you can afford them at all. The government says VOIP is blocked for security reasons, yet even the residents of communist China and North Korea have access to these inexpensive calls.

3. It is really hot outside. Not Florida in July hot; Hot as if you were locked in a car in Florida in July with sufficient humidity to make it feel as though you are drowning. Hot as in 120 degrees with nearly 100% humidity. Do not look to the wind for relief. This is the equivalent of pointing a hairdryer on full blast directly at your face. Pour fine moon dust-like sand over your head as you do this and you get the picture.

4. There are too few trees, plants, and grass – or living things aside from us crazy humans, for that matter. Ever see a bird pant? I have. In my opinion, human beings were not meant to live in such a place. If we were, there would be sufficient water and shade. The only greenery around are the roadside gardens planted by the government, who waters the hell out of them in the middle of the day. Thanks a lot! Didn’t you say we should cut down on our water consumption because you are unable to keep up with the demand? I have an idea: let’s all move someplace where it’s not 120 degrees outside.

5. This country prides itself so much on its glitz and glamour that it put a picture of its 7-star hotel on the license plate. Yet, the public toilets in the king-of-bling Gold Souk district are holes in the ground with no toilet paper or soap. Hoses to rinse your nether regions, however, are provided. This results in a mass of water on the floor that you must stand in to pee. Try squatting without touching anything and keeping your pants from touching anything either. Oh yeah. It’s 120 degrees in there too.

6. This country encourages businesses to hire people from other poor countries to come here and work. They have them sign contracts that are a decade long and then take their passports. Even though taking passports is supposedly illegal, the government knows it happens and does nothing to enforce the law. These poor people are promised a certain pay, but the companies neglect to tell them they will be deducting their cost of living from their paychecks, leaving them virtually penniless – that is, if they choose to pay them. Companies hold back paychecks for months at a time. When the workers strike as a result, they are jailed. Protesting is illegal, you see (apparently this law IS enforced).

These people will never make enough to buy a ticket home and even if they do, they do not have their passports. They live crammed in portables with tons of others, in highly unsanitary conditions. The kicker: they are building hotels that cost more to stay in for one night than they will make in an entire year. Things are so bad that a number of laborers are willing to throw themselves in front of cars because their death would bring their family affluence in the form of diya, blood money paid to the victim’s family as mandated by the government.

7. Things are not cheaper here. I’m sick of people saying that. I read the letters to the editor page of the paper and people say to those who complain about the cost of living rising here, “Well, it’s cheaper than your home country or you wouldn’t be here.” The only thing cheaper here is labor. Yes, you can have a maid – but a bag of washed lettuce will cost you almost $10.

8. There are traffic cameras everywhere. I consider this cheating. Where are the damn cops? I drove around this city for weeks before I ever even saw a cop. Trust me, they need traffic cops here. People drive like idiots. It’s perfectly okay to turn left from the far right lane, but speeding even just a couple of kilometers over will get you fined. These cameras are placed strategically as you come down hills, or just as the speed limit changes. Before you know it…BAM! Fined. Forget to pay the bill and your car will be impounded..

9. The clothing some of these women wear makes no sense to me. I understand that as part of your religion you are required to dress in a particular way, but a black robe over your jeans and turtleneck and cover your head when it is 120 degrees outside? In the gym some women wear five layers of clothing…sweatpants and t-shits over sweaters with headscarves. Yet the men’s clothing makes absolute sense: white, airy, and nothing underneath but their skivvies.

10. People stare at you. I am sick of being stared at. I’m stared at by men who have never seen a fair-skinned blue-eyed woman before, or who have and think we are all prostitutes so it’s okay to stare. They stare at me when I am fully covered or with my husband, and even follow me around. It’s beyond creepy and has brought me to tears on more than one occasion. The staring is not limited to men, either. I’m stared at angrily by female prostitutes who think I am running in on their territory by having a few drinks with my husband at the bar.

11. Prostitutes? Oh hell yes, there are prostitutes. Tons of them. So, let me get this straight, I can’t look at a naked picture of a person on the Internet in the privacy of my home, but it is okay to go out in public and buy a few for the night?

12. Alcohol can only be sold in hotels and a handful of private clubs. A person must own a liquor license to consume in the privacy of their own home. To obtain a liquor license you must get signed approval from your boss, prove a certain level of salary that determines how much you are allowed to buy, and then submit several mug shots (aka passport photos) for approval. Pay the fee and the additional 30% tax on every purchase and you may drink at home. Then again, you can just pick up a few bottles in the airport duty free on your way in to the country, but two is the max. Why not just drive out to Ajman where it’s a free-for-all and load up the SUV? It’s easy enough, but crossing the Emirates with alcohol is illegal – particularly in the dry emirate of Sharjah, which just happens to lie between Dubai and Ajman. Go figure.

13. Not only do you have to get your boss’s approval to obtain a liquor license, but you must also get the company’s approval to rent property, have a telephone, or get satellite TV.

14. Back to the craziness on the roads: If I see one more kid standing up and waving to me out the back window while flying down the road at 160 kph…whatever happened to seatbelts?

15. When is the weekend again? Let me get this straight: the weekend used to be Thursday and Friday, but no one took off all of Thursday, just a half day really. Now the government says Friday and Saturday are the weekend, but some people only take off Friday, others still take a half day on Thursday, but some might just take a half day on Saturday instead. Anyway you slice it, Sundays are workdays and little business can be accomplished Thursday through Saturday.

16. There are few satellite television operators:. The movie channels play movies that are old and outdated. Many of them went straight to video back in the States. Every sitcom that failed in the US has been purchased and is played here. Old episodes of Knight Rider are advertised like it is the coolest thing since sliced bread. The TV commercials are repeated so often that I am determined NOT to buy anything I see advertised on television here just for thee principle of it. When I say repeated often, I mean every commercial break - sometimes more than once.

17. The roads are horribly designed. Driving ten minutes out of the way to make a U-turn is not uncommon. People are not able to give directions most of the time (remember reason #1), and the maps are little help because most have few road names on them, if any. Where is interchange four? You just have to hope you got on the freeway in the right place and start counting because they are not numbered. Miss it and you’ll likely end up on the other side of town before you are able to turn around and go back.

18. Taxi drivers are dangerous and smell. Taxi drivers work very hard here to earn a living because travel by taxi is still relatively inexpensive, even though the cost of living is not (see reason #7). Because of this you may have a driver who has had little sleep or the opportunity to shower for several days. Many of these drivers have just as much difficulty finding their way around as you do, but add to this a third-world country driving style and extreme exhaustion and, well, remember to buckle up for safety.

19. Speeding is an Emirati sport and Emirates Road is just an extension of the Dubai Autodrome. I know I keep mentioning the roads, but really, much of this city’s issues are encompassed by the erratic and irrational behavior displayed on its streets. Visions of flashing lights on even flashier, limo-tinted SUVs haunt me as I merge on to the highway. Local nationals are somehow able to get the sun-protecting dark window tint denied to us lowly expats and use it to hide their faces as they tailgate you incessantly at unbelievably high speeds, their lights flickering on and off and horn blaring repeatedly. It doesn’t matter that you can’t get over, or if doing so would be particularly dangerous, they will run you off the road to get in front of you. Don’t even think about giving someone the finger; the offense could land you in jail. Tailgating is, unbelievably, legal.

20. Dubai is far from environmentally friendly. Ever wonder how much damage those manmade islands are doing to the delicate ocean ecosystem? Coral reefs, sea grasses, and oyster beds that were once part of protected marine lands lie choked under a barrage of dredged up sea sand. Consider the waste that occurs from erecting buildings on top of these sand monsters and from the people that occupy them coupled with the lack of an effective recycling program and you have an environmental disaster on your hands. Add to this more gas guzzling SUVs than fuel-efficient cars on the road and the need for 24-hour powerful air-conditioning and its evident that the environment is not high on the priority list of the UAE.

So while I’m sure there are benefits to living in Dubai, tax breaks, multi-cultural environments, and beautiful buildings aside, reconsider your plans to move here if any of the above mentioned reasons strikes a chord within you. Dubai is a city caught in an identity crisis. Struggling somewhere between its desire to be a playground for the rich and its adherence to traditional Islamic roots, rests a city that lacks sufficient infrastructure to support its delusions of grandeur. Visit if you must, but leave quickly before you are sucked into its calamitous void.


skomer
QUOTE (Ferrari430 @ Feb 11 2008, 01:21 PM) *
Welcome to WAG-on-Sea!

"It's an Enid Blyton existence for the children," says British events organiser Gilly Geisler.
Together with her airline pilot husband, Clive, and their two young sons, they have become the first family to take up residence here.
"People might say Dubai is brash or soulless," adds Gilly as the turquoise waters lap the family's stretch of beach.
"But what is more natural than the simple things — sand and sea and being outdoors?"



laugh.gif laugh.gif All this and stuck in a country sandwiched between Saudi Arabia and Iran laugh.gif laugh.gif

Enid Blyton existence my a**e laugh.gif
Desert Knight
QUOTE (dubaiexpat @ Feb 13 2008, 11:19 AM) *
I love Dubai and the 4 properties that I bought in 2005 have provided real value not just in capital appreciation but also rent however money will always find better returns and Dubai is not living up to its hype.


Hi dubaiexpat,

I wouldn't say that I 'love' Dubai, but I have grown accustomed to it during the 13 years I've been here!

A serious question though, where outside of Dubai would you suggest looking for better returns on my money with a time horizon of say 18 months to 2 years?
dubaiexpat
QUOTE (Desert Knight @ Feb 13 2008, 03:16 PM) *
Hi dubaiexpat,

I wouldn't say that I 'love' Dubai, but I have grown accustomed to it during the 13 years I've been here!

A serious question though, where outside of Dubai would you suggest looking for better returns on my money with a time horizon of say 18 months to 2 years?


You may want to keep in cash and watch the US market, plenty of opportunities to buy there over the next few years, obviously closer to home Abu Dhabi has some mileage, next Hong Kong or with a little longer time span Istanbul. For me keep in cash and watch the credit bubble collapse pulling down asset prices. Inflation is running rampant in the UAE and this will erode value of all tradeable assets (including property), however its difficult to see how its going to play out here as its such a 'rigged' market. Good Luck.
Ferrari430
QUOTE (dubaiexpat @ Aug 9 2006, 09:36 PM) *
All roads lead ultimatley to rome including the monopoly annointed government developers who were given free of charge all the land they have developed or sold to others to develop. Now they are trying to fullfill the hype and promises . Living near the marina I can only say its a monstrosity of concrete where tower blocks look on to tower blocks. Unfortunately there is no recourse to complain, owners are held hostage to 'maintenance charges' and have still no freehold rights, buyers need to put up with dubious practices from so called agents. There is no second hand market, no transparency in costs or prices, volume of sales etc or defined laws for property rights. Try suing Emaar or Nakheel in the Dubai courts. They developments are ill thought out, had no environmental or infrastructure planning, disregarded basic human rights in their construction and although were initially costed at roughly 110 - 220 dhs per sq ft failed to build in rampant inflation due to unbridled development. I believe contractors are now working within 500+. The palm and the world is an example of how things can go very wrong. The stock market is the worse performing stock market in the world falling from 1000+ to 400 since January, Emaars shares are now trading at about 10 Dhs from heady hights of 50 Dhs. Interest rates are on the rise around the world and inflation is double figures in Dubai. I believe those who got in early as always will win but anyone going in now specifically in flats/apartments will find better returns elsewhere. As always buyer beware.


Dubaiexpat this is you commenting on August 06 saying:

"I believe those who got in early as always will win but anyone going in now specifically in flats/apartments will find better returns elsewhere"

At exactly the same time (summer 06) I had bought an office space in HDS Tower in JLT for 700 dirhams psf. These are now selling for between 1400 - 1700 dirhams psf on the resale market

So I have doubled since the time you gave your precious advice. Tell me Dubaiexpat where else in the world would you have got better returns - Money in your bank in cash as you suggest? blink.gif

Remember - we had a bull market in the UK for the last 15 years. In Dubai its been barely 5. We still have a good few years - 3 years at least in my opinion of solid unrelentless growth - so purely from an investment point of view there is still steam supported
by one of the highest rental yields in the world.

If you want to buy as a holiday home - whether Dubai is for you or not is entirely your choice - but you cant hit it in terms of a money maker
md23040
It would be interesting if a tsunami hit all that sand?? Or some other natural event...
Ferrari430
Dubai property prices rise as other markets suffer

With the International Property Show Dubai 2008 running for the next three days, here is an international case study. Both the Western Australian capital Perth and Dubai have overheated, commodity price fuelled economies. And yet property prices stalled in Perth last year after a 40 per cent rise in 2006, while in Dubai real estate prices continue to rocket upwards. Why?

United Arab Emirates: Sunday, February 17 - 2008 at 10:04

This case study provides an interesting insight into the economic forces at work currently in the UAE, and helps to explain why the Dubai boom is more durable than it appears to somebody stepping off a plane for the first time.

In the case of Perth, house prices are higher per square metre than in Dubai, and even more critically the rental yield on property, or rents as a percentage of house prices, is only 3.8 per cent, the lowest for a major Australian city.

In Dubai, landlords obtain rental yields of 7-10 per cent. You can see the attraction of Dubai. It gets better. The cost of money in the UAE is linked to the US Federal Reserve base rate, which has just fallen to three per cent, whereas in Australia the Reserve Bank has just increased rates to a 11-year high of seven per cent, and two more rises are expected by the summer.

Economic forces
Economic forces are therefore exerting downward pressure on house prices in Perth and upward pressures in Dubai.

Yet it is interesting to note similarities in the cities beyond having their fortunes linked to the respective commodity wealth of their countries. Both cities have a very tight labour market and a shortage of completed property. It is on history and economics that the two part company, and this explains the divergence in the outlook for house prices.

Dubai only opened its property market to foreigners in May 2002 and its prices have risen very sharply since then, but are still well below the absolute levels seen in other cities of comparable GDP, as a recent study from HSBC concluded.

Perth's residential property market is actually still closed to foreigners. But it has always been open to all its residents - unlike Dubai which had closed its market to the 80 per cent of residents who are expatriate up until 2002. Therefore, the property value to income and debt matrix in Perth has always been aligned with Australian, if not exactly to global levels.

One final point: it costs some 25 per cent more to build a housing unit in Australia than they will sell for, except in low land cost locations. Dubai developers clearly think they are going to make a profit on their projects while Perth realtors presently do not. This is partly down to lower labour costs, and also reflects the lower population growth forecasts for Perth which has a stricter immigration regime.

Buy Dubai
Does that mean that houses in Perth are a sell and real estate in Dubai a buy? With the Reserve Bank of Australia presently raising interest rates to control inflation that looks an inescapable conclusion. House prices will cool despite the booming local economy, and they need to go up to bring back the developers.

But Perth is investing in its future like Dubai. Last week saw the announcement of the A$300m (US$272m) Perth Waterfront Project which follows the recent announcements that the government is to build a A$1.1bn outdoor stadium at Subiaco and a A$506m museum at the East Perth Power Station site.

However, Perth property investors might argue that their government's tough approach to inflation may make the local economy less prone to a boom-to-bust cycle. Yet that is unlikely to compensate them in the short term where the advantage lies with Dubai.
Ferrari430
George Bush prompts Dubai realty price surge

Dubai house prices are up by 10-15% over the past year, and have leapt by around 5% in the last three months, according to industry sources. The accelerated pace of increase is the highest for more than two years, and down to the decline in US interest rates, high local rents and stock market weakness.

'We have seen a big surge in interest since George Bush visited Dubai last month,' one agent told AME Info. 'His tour of Dubai seemed to remind people about what is going on here, so perhaps it was worth the inconvenience to residents!'

Underpinning this surge in investment confidence is a quantum shift in the economics favouring investment in Dubai real estate.

Rental yields of 7-10% are looking even more attractive now that the best UAE deposit accounts pay less than 3%. Meanwhile, the cost of borrowing is falling, and real interest rates have turned sharply negative.

Carry trade
Large corporates and even one local hedge fund are in a position to borrow cheaply to put money into the local realty market, and achieve a carry trade between low US interest rates and the high rental yield on Dubai property.

Local home lenders have been slow to cut mortgage rates. But the Commercial Bank of Dubai has broken ranks and is offering mortgages from a little over 5% to clients with the best lending risk profile.

'I think it will take around three months for prices in Dubai to fully reflect these changing circumstances,' said a local REIT manager, speaking off the record. 'We already find that completed property is in very short supply. You can still find a few villas and apartments but not completed towers or compounds.'

Supply delays continue to plague Dubai. Some argue that too much is being built at the same time, so that all the projects are falling back from scheduled completion dates.

Project delays
With typical delays running from six months to well over a year, the supply of completed property cannot keep up with burgeoning demand from the constant stream of new residents, as many as 30,000 a month, though admittedly not all high income earners.

This is keeping an upward pressure on new rental prices, which are unaffected by the 5% rental cap, and this is driving the rental yield upwards which is presently at least keeping pace with capital value increases.

It looks like another red hot summer for Dubai real estate with the absence of attractive alternative investment options funnelling even more money into real estate. Global and local stock markets look unstable. Hedge funds had their worst January for eight years. Commodities could be about to top out.

But Dubai realty prices could fly a lot further. A new survey from Hamptons International showed prime residential property in Dubai cost an average of $16,500 per square metre compared to $83,750 in London, $43,500 in New York, $38,750 in Hong Kong and $28,250 in Miami.
Ferrari430
400 queue for 180 villas released by Emaar
In a scene remarkably reminiscent of the first releases of villas in Dubai six years ago, 400 would-be villa owners were patiently queuing by 9am last Saturday to buy a release of 180 villas in The Lakes and Arabian Ranches, even though some of these properties will not be ready until later next year.

United Arab Emirates: Sunday, March 09 - 2008 at 10:25

Meanwhile, the number of secondary market villas available for purchase at Emaar Properties' fully-completed Meadows planned community has dropped to zero on the property location website Albabworld.com. It looks as though villas have become scarce while demand is soaring.

Even in the Arabian Ranches, never the most popular location, secondary property listings have fallen from around 80 a year ago to just 18. But even apartments in the best locations are hard to find.

Flats in the well located Greens apartments near to the Dubai Internet City used to be readily available 12 months ago, today only six units are listed on Albabworld.com.

Buyers galore
Local consumer surveys consistently show that around 30 per cent of respondents are planning to buy property, a remarkably high proportion of the population considering that many residents in Dubai are transient workers and salaries beneath the executive level are generally too low to service a mortgage.

Very high local rents are probably the reason for this enthusiasm for buying property - which is now cheaper than renting. Plus local residents are keen to join in the capital appreciation bandwagon that they can see all around them.

It is also fair to say that Dubai is now attracting many more affluent white-collar workers to its financial and other service sector free zones, and that these individuals often have had a good experience of home ownership in their own countries. Buying in Dubai does not appear such a novel idea, as it sometimes still does to a dwindling band of long term expatriates.

The local peg to the US dollar also provides a further reason to invest at this time. And it still comes as a revelation to some foreign buyers to learn that UAE interest rates are effectively set by the US Federal Reserve.

Negative interest rates
Therefore, despite the booming UAE economy highly inflationary low interest rates are being inflicted on the economy. And everybody knows what low interest rates and high inflation mean for property prices: they go up thanks to negative real interest rates. The same thing is happening in Hong Kong right now.

On the supply side, people used to worry about their being a possible oversupply of real estate in Dubai. But from the experience of the last weekend we can again see that this simply is not true: there is not enough property to meet demand.

In 2007 on some local estimates around 25,000 units were added to the local property pool. Whatever the big plans and visions the reality on the ground is that not enough is being built. Perhaps too much is being attempted at once, thus nothing is being completed on time.

It matters not much in the short to medium term. The queues can only get longer, and the upward pressure on prices has never been stronger than this, not even in the early days.



Fairies Wear Boots


I know nothing about dubai, apart from I've been to the airport there.

If lots of people are investing there, is all the accomodation succesfully let, or is it sitting around empty? If britons have been buying shedloads, are most of them out there living in it?
dubaiexpat
Dubai Real Estate: Young Market Needs Disciplined Growth
A hard fall may follow the high jumps in Dubai residential property prices
Published on: Thursday, March 13, 2008
Written by: Melana Yanos

Dubai real estate is hot, and not just because of its desert climate. The city’s property sector has seen tremendous growth since 2002, when the Dubai government first announced that foreigners would be legally permitted to acquire freehold residential titles for designated areas. When that promise came to fruition in 2006, an enormous wave of buying ensued.

The high rate of appreciation in Dubai property values has raised concerns that a bubble has been created. From 2003 to 2007, new villa prices increased at an average of 226 percent over four years, and apartment prices increased by an average of 100 percent over four years, according to Colliers statistics quoted in GlobalPropertyGuide.com.
Rent pricing has also skyrocketed, with yearly increases ranging from 25 to 40 percent leading up to 2006, according to Arab investment firm EFG-Hermes’ statistics, as quoted in GlobalPropertyGuide.com. The government has since imposed caps on rental price increases, which have been progressively lowered: from 15 percent in 2006 to 7 percent in 2007, and most recently to 5 percent in 2008 for tenants who have occupied their apartments for two years.

The surge in prices has been the probable result of Dubai’s rapidly growing population, which has created huge demand for residential properties. Dubai’s population was estimated at 1.2 million people in 2005—almost twice the number recorded in 1993, according to GlobalPropertyGuide.com. Only 7 percent of the city’s inhabitants are local “Emiratis.”

Dubai's population has doubled and is expected to double again in the next decade. The population is expected to double again during the next decade, according to an article in The Business last December.

Dubai’s real estate market has been compared to that of Singapore in 2000, which saw property selling prices increase a cumulative 37 percent over two years, according to a December 2006 report by EFG-Hermes quoted in GlobalPropertyGuide.com. After a short period of stability, Singapore’s prices dropped sharply by as much as 30 percent of their peaks. Many industry players—not the least of which is the Dubai government—are nervous that the city’s real estate market might similarly crash. EFG-Hermes predicted that a downturn is inevitable and that Dubai property prices will fall by at least 25 to 30 percent in 2008 and 2009.

Earlier this month, an article in The Financial Times named Dubai as one of several international real estate markets that are overheating.

Naysayers point to the huge amount of residential property development taking place in Dubai as the main reason behind an eventual downturn. The report by EFG-Hermes estimated that more than 100,000 new apartments would hit the market in 2008 alone and that the total supply of housing in Dubai will double by 2010. Earlier this year, the Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA) in Dubai reported that about 500 developers are active in the market, according to an article published this month in Emirates Business 24/7. Without adequate demand to fill the abundance of properties, prices are expected to fall hard and fast.

But progress for new developments has been much slower than anticipated thanks to increased regulations on developer activity, a labor shortage and a rise in construction costs. Only a fraction of the supply promised by developers should actually come on stream this year.

The Trump Organization is among the developers breaking ground in Dubai. The Organization has entered into a joint venture with the local-based company Nakheel for the construction of the 48-story Palm Trump International Hotel and Tower. Although Dubai’s market performance for this year still largely remains to be seen, some experts remain optimistic and believe the real estate market will stabilize. Some have argued that the Dubai real estate market was previously undervalued.

“The valuation leaps from 2002 have indeed been tremendous. But this was an artificially depressed, closed real estate market before then, and it took some big discounts to get the market rolling to begin with,” Peter Cooper wrote in an Emirates Business 24/7 article published earlier this month. “Those prices were the anomaly, not the prices in the local market today.”

Many variables, including the rate of population growth and market regulation by the Dubai government, will contribute to the real estate market’s eventual performance.In the midst of so many unknowns, there remains one certainty about the Dubai real estate sector: supply and demand will need to reach a sustainable balance, or else the infant property market is in for some serious growing pains.
Ferrari430
Just come back from Dubai for handover of 2 studios apartments. These I purchased back in 2005 for 38000 GBP and they are currently selling for 110000 GBP.

The rental demand for apartments is tremendous! Inspite of the area jumeirah Lake towers being a construction site the first apartment rented out within 2 hours of me getting the keys to the apartment.

It rented at 80,000 DHS which is roughly 11000 GBP per annum. (so 10% yield at current price and over 30% yield on my original price)

The rent was paid upfront for 1 year and the rental agency charges 5% to the tenant! (not the landlord) for the commission.

The apartment was rented totally unfurnished not even with any kitchen appliances! so apart from maintenance charges which was 1000 GBP for the year there is no other overheads for the landlord

This is the demand for current rental in Dubai.

As one agent had put it to me - you would not get this anywhere in the world - huge appreciation with huge rental yield - the perfect scenario.

The truth about the oversupply is that very litte stuff is being completed - nothing like what was promised before and Dubai is one of the fastest growing cities in the world (in terms of population growth). 11000 small businesses were registered in 2006. My feeling is for the next 3 years at least it will be rosy and the market will only be heading north.

I dont want to guess what is going to happen after that - we shall cross the bridge when it comes - but a 50-70% growth followed by a 30% correction scenario will still leave one in positive territory.

Lot of people have missed out in the last 2/3 years and are banging their heads against the wall - I think there is still a lot of steam left in the market - after all the impression one gets from a dubai visit now is that it is emerging and nothing much has been built so far - everything remains in the pipeline
fws
You'll be banned from this forum! You are only allowed here if you are spreading doom and gloom.

Well done on what has been a great return and in getting your property rented so quickly. I too think Dubai and the UAE is definitely the place to be - both for returns and a good place to visit. Nice to hear from someone 'on the ground' that things are still moving quickly - but the doomsayers who have never been there won't like it!!!!!
Ferrari430
Thanks fws - and so true about the doom mongers.
fws
Which agent did you use?
Ferrari430
I have a few properties there and most of them I had bought through Better Homes (they are the largest agency in dubai)

www.bhomes.com (use the advanced search utility)

other well known agents are - sherwoods, landmark properties, dubai waterfront properties and I have used some smaller ones too. If you want details let me know, I will PM you - most of them do lettings too
fws
Thanks but I can't seem to use the pm function on this forum.
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