Took a drive round a new build site last night after work. The development was completed and handed over about six months ago. A few for sale/rent signs but the thing that really struck me was that at least 50% of them were unoccupied and as the builder left them. Building continues at a frenetic pace around here (Cadiz area) with many thousands of properties under construction which, I guess, will end up with a similar level of occupancy. This must surely signal an end to the madness of HPI in Spain.

Other encouraging signs of a return to sanity;

1. In the last week 4 estate agents in one street have gone bust.

2. Spanish government clamping down on tax evasion (a normal part of property transactions)

3. Interest rates finally beginning to move in the right direction.

Anyone else seen signs of a correction underway?

can't comment about spain, but exactly the same thing going on here in cyprus

rows and rows of unsold houses in new developments - some sitting there unsold for more than a year.

big blocks of newly built flats, empty except the huge 'for rent' banners draped across the verandas

havn't seen any estate agents going bust, but i'm sure it's coming

english expats hotfooting it out of here in droves (5 families a week according to one estimate)

going to get very ugly over here as well I think

problem is that they have never experienced a HPC out here before as cyprus was a closed socialist-type society since 1960. therefore nobody can conceive of one ever happening

the locals look at me like i'm mad whenever i mention the possibility of prices ever dropping

im feeling very lonely

Mainly Brits where I work but I get the same reaction even though some of them have experienced it before in UK.

Likewise lonely

If I use the following simple formula it will tell you why property will come crashing down.

More than 3 million homes have been build along the costas. To get your money you need to rent these homes for 20 weeks a year. Which means 60 million weeks in total. On average there 2.5 people renting. So you need to rent to 150 million visitors assuming they stay a week. Only 52 million people visit Spain every year and they do not all stay in private accomodation allong the costas, there are lots of hotels available too. Lets say only 26 million stay in privaye accomodation than another 124 million visitors are needed to make your holiday investment work.

And remember lots are still being build on the costas and in other countries. Do these same numbers for Dubai and you will notice it won't work in a cuople of years.

My parents have had a loss making home in switzerland for 20 years as it was harder and harder to fill every year. In the end they rented out only for 8-9 weeks a year. You end up spending all your holiday in one place just to justify your buy.
Why have something for yourself when renting it will cost only a fraction.

I can not wait to rent something realy cheap in the sun. And every year try somewhere else.

You are assuming 3 million homes have been built for the rental market - this isn't the case in Spain. Many of those homes are lived in all year round. You are also assuming that only foreign tourists holiday on the costas. Again not the case. You are also assuming that "to get your money back" you need to rent out. Given the rises in property prices along the Costas over the last five years plenty of people have bought and sold and made money doing so.

My own take on Spain is that the Costas are being overdeveloped and that overdevelopment will ultimately be its downfall. Why holiday in a concrete jungle when you can go to Florida, Croatia, Dubia, Bulgaria, South Africa . . .

Building continues at an astonishing pace, although increasingly - as with the Polaris World flagship site - projects are being abandoned because of environmental concerns. Basically lack of water. Murcia and Almeria in particular.

The main problem isn't so much with rental income, but with over capacity. Reselling is a real problem today not least because of competition from unsold new builds, capital gains tax clampdowns and less foreigners being able to afford the rising prices (for example the French have all but disappeared from the market).

One other thing about "rising prices" in Spain. If you buy a house for €200,000, the costs involved in doing so will be roughly €13-15,000 on top. So you could end up paying €215,000 for a €200,000 house. When you come to sell it, you will need to set a price of at least €215,000 just to break even (and that doesn't include taxes, commissions, etc). So prices HAVE to rise by considerable amounts just for people to break even. It is not the investment of a lifetime often portrayed by agents.

And when the market falters - like it is doing now - a lot of people are having to sell at a loss or wait months for a buyer.

I'm trying to keep up with what's going on in the Spanish market away from the coasts. My principle interest is Granada province where I spent several months living last year. The market was still shooting up in Granada last year despite cooling off on the Costa del Sol, but I spoke to an agent yesterday who said things have gone very quiet since the start of 2006. I asked if this was due to the UK market cooling or the prospect of higher interest rates in Europe, but he just thought it was due to Spain no longer being cheap and there being really no real bargins left. The bargin hunters are now off to Eastern Europe. Does anyone else have an opinion about what is happening with the market in rural Spain or Spanish cities away from the coasts??? Love to hear it.
Also whatever happened to Drakan - he always had so much to say about the Spanish market but doesn't appear to be posting anymore - come back!!!

http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...hp?showforum=13

you can go to the spanish forum here which is pinned

The beginning of the end for Spain's real estate bubble?Interest rate rises and falling consumer spending will prompt a fall in housing prices

El Pais Spain | I. DE LA VEGA
One of the key factors that has driven house prices up over the last decade is buyers' conviction that prices cannot fall. Evidence suggests otherwise. In some areas of Japan prices have been falling since 1992, and have now reached half their 1991 value. Prices in London fell by up to 45 percent between 1988 and 1995. Paris experienced a similar readjustment between 1991 and 1998. Bernardos says that in Spain, between 1991 and 1997, prices fell in real terms by an accumulated 20 percent. A hike in interest rates will hit consumer spending, and squeeze jobs. "These trends won't be immediately obvious. Interest rates will hit 3.5 percent this year, but the impact of this rise won't be felt for six months. Prices could fall by five percent in the second half of 2007, by six percent in 2008, and by seven percent in 2009."
Bernardos also points out that during Spain's previous property boom, between 1986 and 1991, there was no speculation. Today, he says, price adjustments will only come when there is an economic downturn and speculators turn their attention to other sectors.


El Pais

The Spanish bubble bust continues, vendors cutting prices, properties on the market for two years plus and no new series of A Place in The Sun, apologising for the pi5s poor advice they gave to the property investment virgins.




Desprate Property Owners

Im investing in Saidia Morocco. One of Spains largest developers 'Fadesa' own the rights to the entire sight.

A chap from Fadesa in London (which also sells a lot of property on its Spannish developments) told me to forget Spain in terms of investment as its all overdone.

Something of an understatement I think.

http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/foru...topic.php?t=837

Just spent some time browsing these forums.
Some of these people must have "I`m British- screw me" printed on their foreheads.

stupid brits: look at glossy brochure believe hype - buy. 2 years later stuck with an asset thats loosing tons of money, and they can't sell it because anyone who actually wanted a home in spain (to live there) has actually already bought it - and the spanish don't want your home thats for sure - so you're left with a home that might rent 2 weeks in a year due to oversupply, and generic business models.

http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...?showtopic=4070

I´m sorry, but i registered purley on this post......
I live, work and breath property in Spain (Costa del Sol).....if ANYBODY is´nt making good returns its purley because you dont know what you are doing..
case 1, €93,000 profit for one of my clients in ONE year, all properties resold within the 18 months period I stipulate for all my clients
case 2, NOT one of my clients has EVER made a lose...EVER.
If you or someone you know is having a quiet period then sorry but They / You need to market, advertise, telemarket a little better than They / You are or are not doing.
I know this is just my words, but I have listened to just your words, so its just a question of who do you/we believe..............and to be honest none of you can make the slightest bit of difference to my life....but I can make the difference in yours.
Best of luck in your investments.

Allme

blah blah blah - utterly ridiculous - try and sell our anchors with your "telemarketing" - even if you could, out of integrity I wouldn't saddle some poor unsuspecting lump with a concrete lemon; Spain is history, way too much cement and way too little demand.

Yours

Allme - I can only assume you are in your 20s with little long term experience of the property market in Spain. Were you selling property during the last crash or have you just been riding the current boom during which time - let's be honest - it was harder to lose money than make it?

If you are telling us Spanish property is a surefire investment for the next five years, mucho suerte mi amigo.

And a guaranteed sale within 18 months is hardly something to boast about.

Cocacolalight (living in spain i take it, or have lived)...firstly thank you for a genuine reply, first one on this board i have´nt seen instantley flaming someone.....
I am 34 years old (born 16th sept 1971), and no i have´nt been riding the old wave, i have been hear for 3 years, and YES i do make a good income.............Is there anything like a surefire investment....NO, i most definatley agree back in the old days...whenever they were....it was much harder to lose money on an investment.....and Cat (whatever) blah blah blah - utterly ridiculous..please grow up.....


I am having my say, which correct me if i am wrong is what this board is about....i have listened to most of you and have taken into account what you have said, so at least have the honour to do me the same.....
Guarenteed sales within 18 months i think is something to boast about, purely because of the returns on investment MY investors get.
Again i am not here to sell Spain, or myself but i am entitled to my facts/history whatever you wish to call it.

Anyway i´m finished with my input on this post, and yes some bright spark will say its about time or hoooray so be it.
I wish you all the best with your investment in whatever shape they take...

Lets be honest, any investment should take alot of hard work, knowledge, researching etc to be effective.

Good luck
Allme

I appreciate your honesty Allme and you may well be proof that if you invest wisely you can make money when property markets go up, go down or go sideways. Three years however is not a long time to be in the market - especially considering the growth in the last three years.

I think Spain has many problems to face in the coming year or so and property prices are almost certainly going to be a casualty.

I happen to be a spanish conveyancing lawyer and I all your emails are just rubbish.

You stipulate for all your clients an 18 month time period to sell ? wahahahahahah Buddy it's not you who decides this it's called the Law of Demand and Supply that fixes the market price of every asset, not yourself. And currently the huge oversupply of offplans have driven down their prices throughout Spain.

It's spelled "loss" not "lose".

I've bought myself in offplans and made money but since 2003 any person whose bought has actually lost money.

You claim that a 25% yield per annum is "very conservative" ( ) and sustainable in Spain currently ? wahahahahaha ¡ Venga ya !


You are right we come from different planets, mine is Spain I have no idea which one is yours.

Your claims are impossible and irresponsible because besides being a lawyer I happen to invest in property. Please quit your REA gibberish.

Spain is an excellent place to invest but sadly this is not the right moment. I can guarantee with 100% accuracy that anyone who intends to buy property there now will lose money If they are in it for the short term. Properties are taking 30 months to sale on average in the coastal areas and those are official figures which serious REAS don't argue against. Long gone are the days where it took less than a month for a property to sale. That happened 3 years ago certainly, not now. And the proof of this is the countless number of real estate agencies which have gone broke in the last couple of years and litter the spanish streets. Are you also going to rebut this ? Any person whose traveled to Spain within the last year can easily confirm this.

No one can give you a 25% yield per annum it is impossible, either in Spain or anywhere else currently.

Drakan

Thank you for the spelling correction, loss and lose have always been a problem for me, but dyslexia is a very difficult thing to deal with.
Please feel free to correct all my spelling in future.

I fell also that i have covered your response or at least replied to it in another post.

Cheers mate

No you haven't.



Any news on the Spanish government plans to place asylum centres on the costas?



btp

Why´s that mate....getting fed up sucking the life out of the old UK, you need a room over here....
I´m sure someone like you will be ok whereever they decide to sponge

Pathetic, and is that the level of your response...you think a sarcastic remark makes any difference except in your childish mind........jeez some of you guys on here get off with stupid remarks.......

Not interested in this post or board anymore (hooraa i hear you say already), just keep watching the press guys, girls and kiddies, and i´ll be back on in a few years with a big FAT i told you sooo.

ta ta

Ummmmm, I live and work in Spain.

Try again with a better insult......

btp

Excellent, tell me where and we will have to meet up, and the level of response is only met by the first reponse recieved....

AHHH let me guess, you are a tried and failed estate agent, lawyer, macdonalds chip maker...............so now you have a huge chip on your shoulder and all agents suck...

Or

You work for "agents out".......which only charge a small amount to advertise your house.........but better than paying estate agents com´s...................................PAY US

mmmmmmmmmm

Did you mean a few days not a few years?

btp

Actually it was a few hours, but what the F**K, I love a good arguement, but seing as this is the only one going i´ll have to stay here until a good one comes along...................

Keep trying boys, come on you can do it...................oh no sorry you cant do it, because to do anytihng you need BALLS and you aint got any...

impaired boy, no schooling.......

Is that it, jeez my 2 year old could probably come up with something better than that..............

ha ha ha what a twit I cant stop laughing, is that really it.
I wont even give abuse back on that one.......go on I´ll give ya another try..

ha ha ha ha

You reply very quickly Allme (?)
I only look in here every week or so......

Nevertheless, you remain, as always, somewhat of an anomaly, albeit an impaired one.

Out of a rapidly dissipating remnant of my original curiousity in these posts, do you still maintain that Spain can deliver big profits? Everyone on the media here is finally acknowledging that prices are falling over there, with close to catastrophic oversupply. Also, look up "Catamite" in a dictionary, just for laughs...

yours etc
filthy receptacle

Some interesting anecdotals and opinions here

couldn't agree more with these quotes tuberider.

Allme, you still there? Cretinous retard.

Back to school for you methinks.

I just read the arguments against a bubble in Spain and find it quite amusing to see that they are pretty much the same as the arguments for a bubble (albeit watered down a little)

So, I think we have established there is a bubble ?

The MEDIA…don’t make me laugh, the media are after any sensationalistic view of what pertains to be of interest to the masses……it SELLS, you dope….

I bet you read all the tabloids and “mmmm that’s right” to yourself in your pitiful little hole in your pitiful excuse for a life……………….ohhh Spain’s no good, coz I bought a place in a confused area that’s not quite sure if it will rent out to holiday makers……….I’ve lost my money and I just don’t want to look stupid….so I know, I’ll blame everyone else for my mistake……lol

And YOU Kitty Cat…or should I just call you PUSSY from now on, still cant admit to yourself that YOU made the mistake and YOU didn’t research your areas right…..and YOU still CANT tell me where these bargain Villas are located……quick do a Google search and see what comes up….twit, lol.

And I cant believe you people…..oh hang on, can you tell me what the lottery numbers will be next week………..NO because no one can see into the future, but your all sooooo proud of yourselves because you can do a search grab the worst headlines you can see, post them on here and then jump on that old bandwagon…waving your flags in triumph….

Just as easy as you can find negativity…….I can find the positive, but I don’t need to because I LIVE HERE and I SEE what is going on…….I don’t sit around moaning and groaning about a bad decision that I made.

And really Catemite………..if you are as intelligent as your are pretending to be, get another line of abuse, because its boring and abuse should be something that hurts someone, cuts them to the quick, aggravates them, gets them aggressive….I have already told you I didn’t go to school, so you are telling the TRUTH and that don’t hurt matey…unlike your sad investment excuse that is……oh and this dumb F**K over here, lives a better life, earns more money and has his own beliefs……I don’t follow the brain dead masses that sit on this board……

Cheers and this time because we are getting soooo busy with all the people wanting to buy over here will be my last post for a while…………at least it will give you time to come up with something better…………………enjoy your holidays in Spain’s no mans land territory…..lol

Oh and the dictionary didn’t recognise “Catemite”….but did suggest I should have meant Catamite….translated as
“A boy who has a sexual relationship with a man”..

Now that would explain a few things, Thanks but I’m not that way inclined, but each to there own……….

Allme

have you ever come into contact with Social Services as a client under Mental Health Legislation.

Pablo Silver or Lead?

Disposing of the pages of childish insults why dont we discuss the origins of the discussion which was Game Over in Spain?

I have no doubt that some rather overpriced and badly built developments are struggling to sell. I have seen barns 30 miles inland going for £100k+ which is ridiculous. There are some Brits that are going in stupidly and buying from inspection visits or purchasing land without solicitors advice. I agree with all of this.

But I have to say I fully agree with Allme. If you know where to buy bargains can still be had and money can be made. I remember people telling me about crashes in 2003, 2004, 2005 and now in 2006. What they fail to understand is that this boom in property has been almost solely fuelled up until now by UK buyers. When I first looked into Spain in 1999 I was told that the bottom of the market was dropping because the German economy was crashing and the majority of Spanish holiday home owners were German. Their arguments were very credible and I saw the mass exodus and the Se Vende signs everywhere. For 6 months the market went stale but a crash never happened. The builders just stopped building for a year and the annual flow of new build buyers just soaked up the extra resale properties.
Before I knew it I had lost around £20k by not buying when I should have and even though the Germans all left the market the massive hole left was filled by Brits. This was a time when interest rates were a lot higher than they are now.

Now the German economy is on the up as well as the Swedes and Dutch it is startingly obvious that they are going to start buying again in their favourite part of Europe. In fact on our urbanisation the 3 resale properties that have been hanging around for 4 months now have all gone in the past 2 weeks to 2 German couples and a Dutch guy.

I find all of this hype about crashes really amusing. Of course certain areas are struggling to sell and what happens is the developers move on and the property supply realigns itself. The articles which states that God forbid some people have been lowering their prices by 30,000 euros is no surprise. They have been overinflating the price of their house even beyond the rather hefty local standards. Most people I know who are selling have added an extra 40k euros on to the price which stands at 100k euros more than what they paid a year ago anyway.

I do pity those looking for a crash in the Spanish market because I have been mithered by them for 4 years now and they still rub their hands every time I see them and say "oh dear did you see that programme the other night telling people about the dangers of buying in Spain".

Oh yes I reply that must be the danger that has allowed me to sell my first spanish house and buy another one mortgage free and bank £70k. Highly dangerous ;o)

Cheers

I do appreciate the reply, but get ready for some more backlash..............positivity and this board dont mix..

Good luck

This one?

btp

No

Its a good house though.

My house in Spain is rented out long term and not for sale. I did put that website together and if anybody is interested in that one there are about 3 others very similar on that developement. The house on that site was bought for £130k about 2 years ago

It does look very pretty. Are you sure it wasn't your house?

Your website (looks good!) has a picture of this house described as "Our house the one with tree (middle)".

btp

Why buy it now for that price?

2003 = 130k ish (quite a lot of money)

2006 = 230k (anyone that buy's anywhere near that price is going to loose a lot of money)

2008/09 = 90 to 120k tops.

Spain is tanking with much further to go as we are just at the begining of the downside.

Pablo Silver or Lead?

What downside? No.1 Cala Marques just went for 340k euros, an apartment went for 260k 2 weeks ago. A development called Desert Springs which a friend of mine works for out there said that sales had increased quite a bit in 2006 and before you say it she has no VI and she isnt in sales (shes in accounts and she is Spanish).

May be a few too many developments have been built in areas like Murcia and Malaga but the market doesn't seem to have been affected in Almeria. I understand there may be a correction in areas like Barcleona as well because they are quite overpriced. At the end of the day £230k isnt too bad for a 4 storey 3 bedroom 3 bathroom house just a minute from the beach in any economic cycle.

And even better...here come the Germans. Bring it on.

looks like you've been ignored on this salient question...

excellent 'find' by the way!

£230k isnt too bad! You're making the same mistake many Brits Do in Spain and Florida. "That looks cheap" compared to the UK. Spain cant and wont support anything like these prices given I/R and Oil prices are going up, the crazy boom is over. Many Germans, Dutch and Brits have been burnt in Spain. There is a mass of property on the market with much more to come. With all the bad publicity in the pipeline demand will totaly disapear. Then you will be able to buy property in Spain for prices sustainable by fundimentals. i.e. Cheap as chips it happend befor and it is happening again. Good luck if you read it differently.

Pablo Silver or Lead?

Well "adibrown" - any reply on the salient question viz-a-viz your house in spain?

If not, I suggest you join Allme in the dunces corner......might be eligible for disability allowance though so it's not all bad.....

excellent find BTP.

They say approx 50% return home after 3 years which makes you think 50% stay in spain the facts are 10% died ... 15% ....moved elsewhere .....15%...cant return even if they wanted to ie tax man or maintenance or whatever.... that leaves 20% or so . who are this 20% builders ... estate agents etc ????? but the one thing almost everyone knows now is that spain is not a good place to invest ,possibly renting is the best if you wanted to live in spain that way you can make your mind up i think the love affair with the costas is over , well it is for us we had 3years on the costa blanca we were lucky to sell[ 1 year 8 months] nearly all our friends have returned or trying to sell but the market is dead just a few spanish and most of them will vanish with the clamp down mortgages.... we have now been back in England for 18 months living on the kent coast near Rye ...would we return to spain ? no way only for holidays . I could go on all day telling whats wrong with spain , I could also do the same about the U.K but we know where we stand here .. whereas the only thing you need to know about spain is its probably the most corrupt country in Europe what more can i say good luck the chances are you will need it

What is it with you guys I answered that question ages ago. As I said my house is rented long term, It isn't for sale!!!!!!!! My house is not for sale. MY HOUSE IS NOT FOR SALE. Sorry to disappoint you all. There are a mix of pictures used to design that website that use my house pictures I have said that already but it isn't my house being described or advertised.

Must say I am very surprised at the level of intellectual debate in this section of the site. I mean Paul/Sally have obviously brought somewhere horrid like Torrevieja or Denia etc on the Costa Blanca where you have more tattoos per square foot then anywhere else in the World. Absolutely filthy horrid part of Spain. Had a bad experience and come back to make 2 posts on Spanish property section and tar the whole of Spain with the same brush. It would be like investing in the UK and comparing Sellafield to Salcombe or Middlesborough to Edinburgh.

Wouldn't necessarily agree with Paul/Sally on Spain being such a bad place, but my-oh-my do I agree with their synopsis on the property situation - congratulations guys on making the hard call and getting out, even at a painful price. Adi, to be quite frank I don't believe you about the house either - I'd help you out with that but I have no need for Spanish property lemons right now - I'm doing too well in other markets (that aren't in a state of collapse!)

yours very amused indeed
Catamite

This post looks like it might have been written by 2 different people. Previous posts suggest the same.

I address the first paragraph. adibrown, I believe you. Is this your partner's house, or a house under your partner's instruction /management?

Mystery poster number 2. Welcome. Spain is indeed a very complex entity with an interesting history. I'm reading a very fine text on the civil war at the moment, which seems to explain everything. I wish I'd paid more attention to history in school.

btp