Look at the chart at the foot of the posting, showing the price of gold over the last 6 months:

It appears that recently as the gold price has gone up there has been a saw-tooth pattern emerging. This seems to be quite regular, in contrast to the erratic movements elsewhere. Is there any explanation for this? In energy prices, such increasing volatility implies shortages in a time of erratic demand. Is this happening here?

Gold appears to be finding support and building for the next push to $500 hopefully before Christmas.

Silver also up nicely today, fingers crossed we will see $10 soon

The following article provides an insight into the workings of the spin machine busy trying to pull gold down. This is the same machine that is trying to keep the housing bubble inflated both in the sates an over here, its interesting to take a look under the bonnet.

NY Times Continues Incoherent Assault on Gold Mining

How about now, today.

Gold will probably trade above $500 eventually ...but not from here, and not before Christmas. The next cycle turn date for Gold is due in July '06, or thereabouts, with the December Future (GCZ6) near $506 perhaps.

For the past 2 weeks the Commercial's and the large trading funds have been selling Gold and Silver on good news, especially Silver, and this is not good if you are a Bull.


They say that triple top's are made to be broken ...so maybe next time.


Disclaimer:
If you listen to me you could lose all your money ...and more.





Have to agree with that.





Here is another rarely seen look under the media 'bonnet'. This quote was taken from the retirement speech of John Swainton, who served as Chief of Staff with the New York Times in the 1860s / 1870s.

"There is no such thing as a free press. You know it and I know it. There's not one of you who would dare to write his honest opinion. The business of a journalist is to destroy truth, to lie outright, to pervert, to vilify, to fawn at the feet of Mammon, and to sell himself, his country and his race for his daily bread. We are tools and vassals of rich men behind the scenes. We are jumping jacks; they pull the strings, we dance; our talents, our possibilities and our lives are the property of these men. we are intellectual prostitutes".


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You could replace journalist with politician and it's still true

I think you may see a more rapid move in gold and silver than some here are talking about. They next few days may be critical, if I am to be right about this

Rapid drop or rapid rise?

When it comes to gold, bubb usually only talks about the rises (stock markets it's about the drops).

But it would be good to know Bubb.....

I am waiting for the 250 troy ounce that has been mentioned before I invest a few grand in gold money (i haven't a clue where to go on the mines)

It’s Kiss The Top And Test The Bottom For Gold



At time of this reply gold was touching 461.5

COT REPORT SUMMARY

Gold Short ratio falls...
From R-3.88 (Gold $475) to R-2.79 ($459) : -1.09 (Gold-$16)

+LONG+ -SHORT-: Comm'rl ++LONG+ -SHORT- RATIO Lg.Spec : DATE Price
(GOLD): Futures -NetSht Combi'd w/Opts. CmS/L Net.LgF ..Tues Lond.pm ProjLow
.GOLD. ........ ....... ....... ....... ..... ...... ....... ....... ........
69,529 229,860 -160,331. 96,138 268,015 2.79 130,568 ............. 11.01 $459.50
54,314 235,105 -180,791. 84,171 280,240 3.33 153,352 ............. 10.25 $472.25
51,648 251,155 -199,507. 81,099 294,908 3.64 170,424 ............. 10.18 $472.00
49,551 262,265 -212,714. 78,945 306,510 3.88 177,410 ............. 10.11 $475.10

IS THIS FALL enough to generate a good rally in Gold?

Previous falls which generated good rallies were...

R-3.55 on 6/28 $437.00 to R-1.96 on 7/19 $419.25
R-3.20 on 4/26 $437.00 to R-1.31 on 5.31 $415.35
=================
Average fall: 1.74 in the ratio over 4-5 weeks, on an average price fall of $29.33
So we may have a little further to go for an IMPORTANT price low (on this indicator).
//No guarantee that it will drop as much as previously, or stop there either.//

we've broken a clear head and shoulders support and can't see how we're not going to test something with a $440 handle.

that said Friday's fall was mostly a EURUSD story.

Up Up and Away for Oxus Gold - OXS - Thanks for the Tip Dr B.

Up 5% today on the news from 60- 63p

EDIT: Gold up to £268.5 is this the start of the big phase 3 move?

COMING 4-PHASE GOLD BULL MARKET?

Darn it! I was watching gold sink with satisfaction in anticipation of enjoyed a pre-Xmas gold "sale".....

It looks like it's going to get worse - I mean, if you were looking forward to a pre-Xmas loading up of gold that is:

http://secure.goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php

Just one view of course. very interesting relationship though.

I wish people would shut up about Gold.

It's not Gold's time. Anyone who bought the actual metal in the last 3 months has enjoyed fair losses - like me. If ever Gold gets to around $495 an ounce this winter, I'm selling - all of it.

Be honest - with a spread of 2-3% on virtual and 5-6% on physical, Gold has to be doing a lot better than it is to make its purchase worth it.

I think Gold bugs on here, just like HPC predictors (I'm one of them) are too "advanced" in their thinking. Gold's day will come... but I don't think it's now, or even in the next 6-12 months.

We've not seen the same seasonal gains as in the previous years, or at least, the timing isn't quite the same. It's not "storming" to $500/ounce like everyone predicted - if it was going there, it'd have made its move by now.

Me? I've lost loads on Gold buying at what I though was a good time but actually just missing the most significant rise from mid-year to August.

My advice: keep your money in your highest-rate savings account. Have a play with Gold if you like, but be aware that its performance is related more to seasonal prices at the moment than anything else. Guess the low point, stick some money in, get some gains, and sell. If Gold's long-term performance does turn the corner, hopefully this will be while you're still carrying some stocks bought at a low and you can sit back and enjoy the ride.

Holding for the sake of holding, especially when from here it looks as though Gold is about to level off and then fall back down to another summer low... that's a mugs game.

Hi - I've been following the debate for some time now, and thought I'd just share a comment..

Look at the trend for gold over the last few years. Long term it's a steady up-trend, with but smaller ups and downs along the way. No market goes straight up or straight down.

You seem to think that you made a bad investment because it's marginally down since the peak, but what did you really expect? That after you bought it wouldn't temporarily go below what you bought it for, and that the increase instantly would make up for the spread you paid? That's just unrealistic!

My advice to you would be to in the future decide what time period you want to invest over, and stick to that. You seem to have first thought it was a great idea, and then got spooked by a temporary dip and changed your view to that "it's not golds time". Do your research before you invest, and then stick to your strategy.

Personally I'm bullish on gold, so I'd say you made a great investment, but you can't expect it to instantly take off right after you bought it. Gold, especially ungeared, moves slowly. Also, it's near impossible to predict all the short term movements, but look at the trend over a few years, and a clear picture emerges.

I bought gold in early August when it was $430/Toz and now it is $465/Toz. That's 8% gain in 3 months, which is hardly a terrible loss. But I didn't buy it, and do not buy it now, as a speculation. I buy it in order to be in a better financial situation 5-10 years from now. The best time to buy a house was in 1995. If you bought in 2000 you still could make money but you made much less and it was far harder to pick up the house of your choice in the scramble. Best to buy in a dead market when it's "crazy" to buy.

I also buy silver. When it goes, it'll go good and you'll lose big time if you hadn't prepared before the big rush. It's harder to get hold of silver bullion in this country. It'll rapidly become impossible to obtain bullion once the price takes off.

Gold might fall to $400/Toz in the next few months. Fine by me. A time to buy! The real benefits of gold currency are found in the long term, not short term fluctuations:

1914 1 Toz Au = 1 GBP Sterling

late 1960s 1Toz Au = c. 8 GBP Sterling

2005 1 Toz Au = 80 GBP Sterling.

Currently the fundamentals are exceptional for gold, based on its low price relative to house prices, stocks or oil.

Gold breaks thrugh Euro 400 $470 and £270 another barrier down, how much further will this bull run, will it all end when thentraditional buying season ends at Christmas, I hope not.

Live Gold Prices

Gold Breakout Against Key Currencies Continues

Seems to have bounced back from the $470 barrier once more today...

Interesting, todays afternoon fix from the goldline website had it up about $5 AND £5 from this mornings fix.
I guess (though I'm no expert) that this doesn't bode too well for sterling.

Gold has broken decisively through 400 Euros today and has almost fully recovered against the dollar,

Trading at 476.85/477.35 well above resistance at this point. Can it hold there? That is the question.

"lost money on gold"?

You need discipline. And to learn about some of the timing tools like COT reports,
overbought and oversold indicators.

You may want to check out the ongoing discussion on the "Really Useful Gold thread",
Link: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=948390

Here's a comment today:

"Silver $8.01- that's nice, and Gold up over $10.

I reckon this move should take us to over $8.50 / $500 within this year"

Gold is hitting new highs today, is over $486. Any idea what's driving this? It's been wavering around $470 for weeks and now it's suddenly gone vertical since yesterday.

A pity really, I was hoping for a "Pre-Xmas sale".

I've been wondering about this too. Anybody able to explain it?

Here is my take:

1. The main buying season for gold is September to December which is providing demand for physical gold

2. Gold is starting to behave more like a currency in its own right rather than just a dollar hedge. Rises in the Dollar have traditionally seen gold getting dumped but not this time, not yet anyway. Gold is rising against all currencies and acting like the only true store of value.

3. The markets are able to see through the fiddled inflation reports produced by the Fed and BOE and are buying gold as a hedge against inflation

4. Gold appears to be on the bull run that so many gold bugs have been waiting many years for, the run appears to be gaining momentum as traders leap on board making the gold boom a self fulfilling prophercy.

5. Gold is has been manipulated by central banks for years, they don't want strong gold as it could weaken confidence in the Fiat money they are printing year on year, could we be seeing the first signs that the have lost the battle and may hold on to what gold reserves they have left.

6. The Feds decision not to publish M3 data is seen by many as a sign that the USA is about to kick the dollar printing presses up to max speed providing finances to rebuild New Orleans and pay for the invasion of Iraq

7. It appears China were caught with their pants down shorting copper to keep prices down, could other organisations be caught out attempting to do the same to gold.

8. Much of the gold market is traded as derivatives which allow massive leverage of phsical gold, many suspect that these complex financial tools could cause instability in the financial markets and economic melt down inwhich case gold will be the only true money.

9. Many think that the Dollar is near its highs and could fall fast once it turns. In this event american investors may turn to gold as a way of protecting their saving causing a second run of the gold bull.

10. Increases in the price of physical gold often follows increases in the price of the shares of gold mining companies, increases in these shares over the past few days suggests this gold bull may have some way to run yet.

11. The increases in gold seen to date have only been noticed by those watching the financial markets, once gold breaks $500 dollars the news will become mainstream and could lead to a further gold rush.

I believe gold has a long way to go, money week reported possible prices hitting $1,100 in the next few years, its nice to be in at the start of a bubble for a change.

EDIT; Just seen the following article which explains things a little more clearly:

Gold Rises Near 18-Year High on Alternative-Investment Demand



PS: Dr Bubb OXS made nice move today up 6%

After years of Centra Banks selling gold to keep prices down could Russia be the first to break ranks with a proposal to double their gold reverves, they obviously know a good deal when they see it

Gold at 18-year high after Russia pledges to pile in

What I don't understand is why announce the M3 move, and why now? Surely, the fed has every thing to lose by announcing the curtailment of M3 reporting.

It looks like Gold investors are jumping on the Fed's 'erode the debt inflation bandwagon'. The immediate problem with the US is spiralling unserviceable debt, and the most popular way to pay off massive debt is to renege on it by creating inflation. Nixon did this by selling Government Bonds to the public in the 70's. He then had his buddy Arthur Burns at the Federal reserve print money to buy them back. As expected, inflation took off and nominal interest rates, which are used to discount the interest and principal, shot up, and the real value of federal debt declined dramatically. Perhaps Bernake is planning to inflate the US out of debt like Nixon did, by selling Government Bonds to the public, then getting the Federal reserve to print money to buy back the bonds. This could explain why the M3 figures are to be withdrawn from the public domain early next year.


If this is indeed the plan then it could be very good news for the long term Gold Bulls , as historically, when US interest rates have risen so has the price of Gold. For example, during the 1970's Gold Bull market when interest rates rose to 15%, Gold went from $35 to $850. From the early 80's to 2000 when interest rates fell back to 5%, Gold dropped from $850 to $255.






Perhaps the Russian's are aware of this too.

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Just in case anyone is thinking about it, I would like to suggest that buying Gold at this price could prove costly. $500 is a big number psycologically, and I would be very surprised if it traded right through this level without a decent fight from the Bears. I think there will be a better time and a better price to climb on board for the +$500 level, but for now it might be prudent to watch and wait. It's nearly there so we'll find out soon enough. Personally, I shorted Gold on Friday ...so I'm putting my money where my mouth is.

For what it's worth, I believe at least a short term top in the Gold market is in the making. Be careful.




Stranger things have happened.

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I don't think that I have the testicular fortitude to short gold at the moment, but I will have my cash at the ready. After the bounce off $500, we may see some strength.

As for M3, could this not be arrived at by looking at M1 and M2 and a few other published figures? Still very surprising. Does make you wonder what they are trying to hide.

I sold half my gold shares this morning. It's gone a bit mad for me so am bailing out. 24 percent gain mind you

I suspect we will see $499 dollar gold before we see significant pull back as $500 is a tough barrier, shorting in a bull trend is always risky and now may be too soon. There have been many reports that gold has not been behaving as normal i.e. rising with a stronger dollar and rising with falling oil, I think these are indications of the strength of this gold bull and nothing to do with a change in the rellationship between these factors.

Gold could rise as the dollar falls against a stronger Euro following todays expected EU rate hike, and gold could also gain a push from increasing oil prices which are expected to rise soon. All in all gold may not be the best buy at present but the next stop should be $500 and if it breaks through that barrier then building momentum may make it unstopable.

Will we see $500 before Thanks giving day, major gold investor site overloaded at NY open

www.thebulliondesk.com

funny that,the guys at Bairds seem quite efficient and prompt.

loaded up a bit more yesterday and had less trouble getting through to them than I did TDW.

Feeling confident?

Deflation perhaps ?




During this mornings GCG6 $12 10second spike I was experiencing symptoms of acute atrophy there myself. What a ride !

http://customer1.barchart.com/custom/vsn/1699.htm

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That does look rather painful. Live to trade, trade to live. Are you in it for the money or the thrill?

Judging by the price action since Friday ...not confident of my infallibility it would seem. . Anyway, the spirit of my post was not about being confident ...it was about being careful.





It started off that way, but since then it's morphed into a required phenomenon. The thrill of fast money was the initial attraction, but now it's like a drug.

Got to have that fix.

---

This link is well worth clicking on:

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=375

It reminds us that gold stocks normally move in a contrary direction to financial stocks. The fact that gold stocks are rising simultaneously with major stockmarkets means that we have seen nothing yet. If the Dow, FTSE etc should turn down then gold stocks will really take off!

I have also sold some of my gold shares today to bank the gains. That means it's going to explode upwards any time now (rule #1: every action by me has an opposite reaction in the market).

To sell before $500 or not? How likely is it gold will break through $500 first attempt? I'm sure there will be a lot of profit taking around this price which should push the price down a fair bit (and I can re-buy), No?!

I am thinking of selling some of my Goldmoney holding (physical gold) in the expectation of a correction. I am holding on to the shares because I dont think that they finished moving up yet - despite the rising price of gold and despite the fact that they have done prety well so far.

I notice Gold Bullion Securities (GBS.L) is down 41% according to Yahoo charts? Can this be right? Glad I don't hold any!

Nothing to worry about, just yahoo charts playing up. They're $49.35 at the moment from what I can tell.

I am not getting rid of my GBS any time soon. Seems to be going up more than I am earning! Moneyweek Friday had another bullish article
"....if investors really have started to see gold as a mainstream investment and not just a safety first currency and inflation hedge - the upward move in gold prices could be explosive...."

Moneyweek also said that:

John Hathaway predicts $1000 an ounce (not specified by when).

Merryl Lynch predicted in July it wuold be $725 by 2010

(Mind you moneyweek tipped a couple of shares, which I foolishly bought which both promptly lost 15% in 4 weeks before I got out again! Ow)

How's the shorting going BuylowsellHigh? Ow! Ouch!

I liked the comment inthe gold watch section on page 5:

"John Hathaway of the Tocqueville gold fund told Barrons that the continued shift out of equities and bonds into gold would severely strain supply: if just 0.1% of global financial assets were invested in gold, it would use up two years worth of mined supply"

Also an interesting take on limited gold supply from ADVFN:

"All the gold ever mined would form a cube 19m square, which would fit easily under the Eiffel Tower in Paris"

With a density of 19.3 Tonnes/m3 that gives a total weight of around 132,000 tons. That is in the same ball park as the 118,571 tons quoted here: Free market gold

[attachmentid=2019] All gold ever mined would fit under Eiffel tower:



Can't find the link but I read somewhere that Russia cental banl plans to buy more gold:

"Although Russia announced its gold move on Wednesday, investors are only now waking up the full significance. Maria Guegina, head of reserves management, said Russia wished to double the gold share of its fast-growing reserves from 5pc to 10pc.
This would amount to a purchase of 500 tonnes, equal to the combined allowable sales by a group of major central banks under the Washington accord. It would also absorb all of Russia's gold production for three years.
South Africa's central bank governor, Tito Mboweni, said this week his bank may now start accumulating gold once more after a period of selling."

31% held by Governments as monetary reserves.

Believe it or not, in teh early 80's it used to be more than twice that, 66-67%.
If governments start buying again (when teh dollar slides), imagine how high Gold can go.

$2,000 is not impossible

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=100...Qtpw&refer=asia

Newmont Forecasts Gold to Rise Above $1,000 on Asian Demand
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Newmont Mining Corp., the world's largest producer of gold, says the price of the precious metal may rise to more than $1,000 an ounce in the next five to seven years as demand growth driven by Asia outstrips global supply.

On the same topic as DrBubb's post above:

Asian central banks likely to increase gold reserves

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200512/0...201_224958.html

"It is only a question of time for Asian central banks to follow and buy in gold: they hold 2.6 trillion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves, and able to change more of them into gold as a hedge against US dollar falls. "

"Asian investors are the world largest gold consumers, but gold only takes 1.1 percent in China's official reserves, or 1.3 and 3.6 percent in Japan and India respectively. A sharp contrast is the American percentage of 63.8 percent, and over 50 percent in Germany, France and Italy respectively."

From http://www.gold.org/value/markets/supply_demand/.

"GFMS Ltd. estimates that at the end of 2004, above-ground stocks represented a total quantity of approximately 153,000 tonnes, of which 63% had been mined since 1950."

Now, that would mean the value of all gold above ground is roughly 153,000,000 kg * 35 oz/kg * $500/oz = $2.67 trillion. This is pretty much the same figure as the USD held in Asian reserves! This shows just how rare gold really is compared to paper money, and gives an idea of the impact on the gold price if some of this money starts moving into gold.

I believe a scenario is likely where the dollar starts to slide, and the Asian banks will want to exchange their dollars for something. It's also likely that as the article suggests they will move into gold. Just imagine the impact on the market if the Asian economies start to increase the % of gold held to come closer to the % held by US and European countries. It will be dramatic to say the least!

is GOLDgoing to pullback ? or just keep moving forward i fancy buyiny some more do i wait for a pullback or just buy now any views welcome .could the price of gold double in the next 18 months

It could pullback, yes. I would not be surprised. Actually I would be pleased by it.

After the FED announcement that it will no longer publish US money supply statistics, it is clear that US policymakers have chosen to pursue an inflationary policy. This will rapidly spread to the rest of the world.

A flight of capital to gold is now developing and central banks are losing control of its price. It will spike to unimaginable levels. Volatility will increase as well, with daily movements in excess of 10%.

I am currently moving entirely out of paper asset/currencies and into gold bullion on price pullbacks. I would recommend this to anyone with significant savings.

Time is running out.