A fascinating historical article about the gold price that I've just found on the web. (It was written a few years ago, but like all things pertaining to underlying reality it still contains its "nugget" of truth now):
http://www.anglofareast.com/0139.html
Full Version: Gold Price Forecast
Friday September 2, 1:01 PM
GFMS Says Gold-Oil Price Ratio Sharply Out of Kilter
By Angus Macmillan
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
CAPE TOWN (Dow Jones)--The current ratio between the prices of oil and gold is sharply out of kilter from the 35- year average "and something has to give," Paul Walker, chief executive of GFMS Ltd., said Friday.
Speaking at a gold investment conference, Walker said the average ratio between 1970 and April this year was 15.7 barrels of oil to one troy ounce of gold.
At around $67 for a barrel of oil and $443 for an ounce of gold, the current ratio is 6.6. If the average ratio over the past 35 years was applied, the price of gold would be $1,052/oz.
"Either the dollar price of oil is going to drop sharply or the price of gold is going up," he said.
London-based institute GFMS researches precious metals' supply and demand.
Walker said gold "looks cheap" in terms of the gold-oil ratio, even if oil moves back to a more sustainable price level in the next few months.
"Oil could have a big say in where the price of bullion is going but the other major factor is the twin deficits in the U.S. - I don't think the U.S. will simply be able to grow its way out of these problems," he said.
Research by GFMS shows that fabrication demand, mainly for jewelry, has adjusted to a higher gold price with a floor of around $420/oz.
It also shows that gold producers are going to continue reducing their forward sales or hedge positions in 2005 though not by as much as in 2004.
"All in all, the downside potential for the gold price looks to be significantly less than the upside potential," added Walker.
Meanwhile, another speaker at the conference said more gold-based exchange traded funds, known as ETFs, are in the pipeline following the success of the four that have been launched around the world since 2003.
Owen Rees of Exchange Traded Gold, a network of organizations that promote funds that invest in physical gold, said the four existing ETFs in the U.K., the U.S., Australia and South Africa currently own around 250 metric tons of gold worth more than $3.5 billion.
The largest fund, StreetTracks Gold Shares, was launched in the U.S. in December 2004 and accounts for around 80% of the market.
Gold owned by the funds is stored in vaults at HSBC Holding PLC (HBC) in London and at Rand Refinery in Johannesburg. HSBC is considering enlarging its facility to cope with increased storage demand.
"Over $100 million of exchange traded gold securities are being traded every day between the four funds and we see potential for new listings," said Rees.
Hedge funds, mutual funds and a range of other investors are buying into gold ETFs as a means of diversifying their portfolios through having a stake in physical gold.
Although gold equities provide more leverage, gold ETFs are seen as providing exposure to the metal without any exposure to individual gold producer risk.
GFMS Says Gold-Oil Price Ratio Sharply Out of Kilter
By Angus Macmillan
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
CAPE TOWN (Dow Jones)--The current ratio between the prices of oil and gold is sharply out of kilter from the 35- year average "and something has to give," Paul Walker, chief executive of GFMS Ltd., said Friday.
Speaking at a gold investment conference, Walker said the average ratio between 1970 and April this year was 15.7 barrels of oil to one troy ounce of gold.
At around $67 for a barrel of oil and $443 for an ounce of gold, the current ratio is 6.6. If the average ratio over the past 35 years was applied, the price of gold would be $1,052/oz.
"Either the dollar price of oil is going to drop sharply or the price of gold is going up," he said.
London-based institute GFMS researches precious metals' supply and demand.
Walker said gold "looks cheap" in terms of the gold-oil ratio, even if oil moves back to a more sustainable price level in the next few months.
"Oil could have a big say in where the price of bullion is going but the other major factor is the twin deficits in the U.S. - I don't think the U.S. will simply be able to grow its way out of these problems," he said.
Research by GFMS shows that fabrication demand, mainly for jewelry, has adjusted to a higher gold price with a floor of around $420/oz.
It also shows that gold producers are going to continue reducing their forward sales or hedge positions in 2005 though not by as much as in 2004.
"All in all, the downside potential for the gold price looks to be significantly less than the upside potential," added Walker.
Meanwhile, another speaker at the conference said more gold-based exchange traded funds, known as ETFs, are in the pipeline following the success of the four that have been launched around the world since 2003.
Owen Rees of Exchange Traded Gold, a network of organizations that promote funds that invest in physical gold, said the four existing ETFs in the U.K., the U.S., Australia and South Africa currently own around 250 metric tons of gold worth more than $3.5 billion.
The largest fund, StreetTracks Gold Shares, was launched in the U.S. in December 2004 and accounts for around 80% of the market.
Gold owned by the funds is stored in vaults at HSBC Holding PLC (HBC) in London and at Rand Refinery in Johannesburg. HSBC is considering enlarging its facility to cope with increased storage demand.
"Over $100 million of exchange traded gold securities are being traded every day between the four funds and we see potential for new listings," said Rees.
Hedge funds, mutual funds and a range of other investors are buying into gold ETFs as a means of diversifying their portfolios through having a stake in physical gold.
Although gold equities provide more leverage, gold ETFs are seen as providing exposure to the metal without any exposure to individual gold producer risk.
If Oil Goes to $100, Where Does Gold Go?
By Tim Wood
02 Sep 2005 at 05:31 PM EDT
NEW YORK (ResourceInvestor.com) --For the first time since President Nixon heeded some rather unwise economic counsel and cut the umbilical link between the American dollar and gold, the monthly average proceeds from selling a barrel of oil have topped 5/32 of an ounce.
Adjusted for inflation, the monthly average gold price breached $60 per barrel for the first time since January 1983. Current prices only need to rise another $17/bbl or so to smash the all-time high since the 1970s oil shocks. The highest monthly average price in 2005 dollars was recorded in February 1981 at $84.64/bbl.
The ratio of the gold price to the oil price has been in a broad downtrend since December 2001 when the monthly average saw an ounce of gold paying for 17.34 barrels of oil. The average for August was just 6.76bbl/oz; an unprecedented low given that until recently 8bbl/oz was widely regarded as the last line of resistance. Indeed, previous slumps in the ratio to below 9bbl/oz have usually been a reliable indicator to buy gold for a sure profit.
Not this time. Since November 2004 only one month has provided temporary relief (May this year) otherwise there has been month after month of losses to gold producers whose margins are being crushed by the diminishing purchasing power of bullion.
August’s ratio marked a 7% fall from the July average. August recorded just 4 days above 7bbl/oz compared with July showing just 1 day below 7bbl/oz. The low for August came on the 30th when the havoc wreaked by Hurricane Katrina along the Gulf Coast became apparent, particularly news that the levees in New Orleans had been breached.
That saw the ratio bottom at 6.17bbl/oz as oil futures were bid up aggressively and after temporary long liquidation in the gold markets followed by rumours of short-covering. Gold on the day was fixed at $430.65 and West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $69.82. Notably it was the lowest gold price in more than a month when gold was fixed at $429/oz on 29 July.
The average ratio for August is an incredible three times lower than the 35-year average of almost 18bbl/oz.
Katrina has now set the stage for a possible near-term realization of Goldman Sach’s much quoted and often disparaged forecast of an oil super-spike to $100 per barrel.
Emergency action by the Feds, International Energy Agency and some European countries to release oil reserves has quelled the oil price surge that went briefly past $70/bbl. However, information emerging from the Gulf of Mexico suggests widespread under-appreciation of how badly oil and gas production and exploration in the region has been affected.
Information on the shut-ins is relatively detailed, but there is an assumption that over time all the capacity will be brought back online. Instead, investors should be concerned about mounting evidence that companies are going to report that some mature fields are not worth recovering. As a result there is likely be a net loss of energy production from the region. At the same time, related infrastructure will not be easily repaired or replaced; many companies will no doubt be rethinking plant location driven by the commands of insurance assessors.
Refineries cannot be easily replaced in new areas unless the various levels are government are willing to suspend the plethora of regulations that make it risky to break ground.
Yet the government is unwittingly about to exacerbate the problem. Several states are considering temporarily withdrawing gasoline taxes to lower retail prices. This would have the opposite effect, causing accelerating demand which cannot be met from local refineries. In all likelihood prices would return to high levels in short order leaving state governments squealing about lost revenue. Were gasoline taxes then reapplied we could expect a tremendous shock to consumer spending and confidence.
Those are negatives that will weigh on the US dollar, as they already have in recent days. On top of that is the disruption to Mississippi freight.
Adjusted to the long-term gold-oil ratio of 17.44 barrels per ounce, gold has an “expected” price of $1,178, whilst oil has an expected price of just $25.46/bbl. The last time gold came anywhere near the $1,000/oz level that was in February 1983 when the inflation adjusted price reached a monthly average of $989/oz.
If we accept that oil’s fundamentals are so superior that we’ve entered a new era, then might adjust the ratio to half the long-term average. At that ratio the expected gold price is $589/oz and oil’s is $50.92.
Looking ahead to a possible $100/bbl spike, the “new era” ratio of 8.72bbl/oz would imply a gold price of $872/oz. At the long-term average, $100/bbl implies a gold price of $1,744/oz.
Of course, with the way things have been going, it is not improbable that the ratio could fall as low as 5bbl/oz.
By Tim Wood
02 Sep 2005 at 05:31 PM EDT
NEW YORK (ResourceInvestor.com) --For the first time since President Nixon heeded some rather unwise economic counsel and cut the umbilical link between the American dollar and gold, the monthly average proceeds from selling a barrel of oil have topped 5/32 of an ounce.
Adjusted for inflation, the monthly average gold price breached $60 per barrel for the first time since January 1983. Current prices only need to rise another $17/bbl or so to smash the all-time high since the 1970s oil shocks. The highest monthly average price in 2005 dollars was recorded in February 1981 at $84.64/bbl.
The ratio of the gold price to the oil price has been in a broad downtrend since December 2001 when the monthly average saw an ounce of gold paying for 17.34 barrels of oil. The average for August was just 6.76bbl/oz; an unprecedented low given that until recently 8bbl/oz was widely regarded as the last line of resistance. Indeed, previous slumps in the ratio to below 9bbl/oz have usually been a reliable indicator to buy gold for a sure profit.
Not this time. Since November 2004 only one month has provided temporary relief (May this year) otherwise there has been month after month of losses to gold producers whose margins are being crushed by the diminishing purchasing power of bullion.
August’s ratio marked a 7% fall from the July average. August recorded just 4 days above 7bbl/oz compared with July showing just 1 day below 7bbl/oz. The low for August came on the 30th when the havoc wreaked by Hurricane Katrina along the Gulf Coast became apparent, particularly news that the levees in New Orleans had been breached.
That saw the ratio bottom at 6.17bbl/oz as oil futures were bid up aggressively and after temporary long liquidation in the gold markets followed by rumours of short-covering. Gold on the day was fixed at $430.65 and West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $69.82. Notably it was the lowest gold price in more than a month when gold was fixed at $429/oz on 29 July.
The average ratio for August is an incredible three times lower than the 35-year average of almost 18bbl/oz.
Katrina has now set the stage for a possible near-term realization of Goldman Sach’s much quoted and often disparaged forecast of an oil super-spike to $100 per barrel.
Emergency action by the Feds, International Energy Agency and some European countries to release oil reserves has quelled the oil price surge that went briefly past $70/bbl. However, information emerging from the Gulf of Mexico suggests widespread under-appreciation of how badly oil and gas production and exploration in the region has been affected.
Information on the shut-ins is relatively detailed, but there is an assumption that over time all the capacity will be brought back online. Instead, investors should be concerned about mounting evidence that companies are going to report that some mature fields are not worth recovering. As a result there is likely be a net loss of energy production from the region. At the same time, related infrastructure will not be easily repaired or replaced; many companies will no doubt be rethinking plant location driven by the commands of insurance assessors.
Refineries cannot be easily replaced in new areas unless the various levels are government are willing to suspend the plethora of regulations that make it risky to break ground.
Yet the government is unwittingly about to exacerbate the problem. Several states are considering temporarily withdrawing gasoline taxes to lower retail prices. This would have the opposite effect, causing accelerating demand which cannot be met from local refineries. In all likelihood prices would return to high levels in short order leaving state governments squealing about lost revenue. Were gasoline taxes then reapplied we could expect a tremendous shock to consumer spending and confidence.
Those are negatives that will weigh on the US dollar, as they already have in recent days. On top of that is the disruption to Mississippi freight.
Adjusted to the long-term gold-oil ratio of 17.44 barrels per ounce, gold has an “expected” price of $1,178, whilst oil has an expected price of just $25.46/bbl. The last time gold came anywhere near the $1,000/oz level that was in February 1983 when the inflation adjusted price reached a monthly average of $989/oz.
If we accept that oil’s fundamentals are so superior that we’ve entered a new era, then might adjust the ratio to half the long-term average. At that ratio the expected gold price is $589/oz and oil’s is $50.92.
Looking ahead to a possible $100/bbl spike, the “new era” ratio of 8.72bbl/oz would imply a gold price of $872/oz. At the long-term average, $100/bbl implies a gold price of $1,744/oz.
Of course, with the way things have been going, it is not improbable that the ratio could fall as low as 5bbl/oz.
Gold may not have gone ballistic after Katrina but it may have got a few Commercial shorts off our back. As the true extent of the damage to the oil infrastructure becomes clear over the next few weeks we may start to see the return of the gold bull.
Increasing fuel prices here in the UK are going to start hitting peoples pockets and the complacency that many home owners have over the state of the economy and rosey economic outlook may have been shaken by events in New Orleans.
CPI figures are due out in the States today which could send a few shock waves through the markets.
Technical Signals Swell in Gold's Favour
Increasing fuel prices here in the UK are going to start hitting peoples pockets and the complacency that many home owners have over the state of the economy and rosey economic outlook may have been shaken by events in New Orleans.
CPI figures are due out in the States today which could send a few shock waves through the markets.
Technical Signals Swell in Gold's Favour
QUOTE
Technical Signals Swell in Gold's Favour
By Gene Arensberg
04 Sep 2005 at 06:14 PM EDT
COT GOLD REPORT
A weekly update combining the commitment of traders (COT) data usually released each Friday by the major exchanges, with reporting on the difference between the long and short positions of the largest traders in gold, the Large Commercials (LC’s) as of the previous Tuesday, with technical commentary by Gene Arensberg.
Special circumstances following Hurricane Katrina.
COT Synopsis: The gold futures markets traded the majority of this week under the effects of a bona fide natural disaster, but as of the Tuesday, 8/30 cutoff for the COT, aggressive long liquidations, probably combined with some short covering, resulted in an extremely high one-week rate of reduction in the large commercial net short positions (LCNS) relative to the $7 drop in the price of gold for the period.
Outlook Snapshot: September 3, 2005. Neutral, but much depends on market perception of the near and long-term effects of the natural disaster. A technical breakout in gold is possible short-term.
It is important to note that the LCNS reduction occurred prior to the full realization by the market of the unimaginable effects of the Category IV storm direct hit on New Orleans, an extremely important port city for commodities, and before the full extent of Katrina’s destructive march through the heart of the most important offshore oil and gas production and distribution facilities in the Gulf of Mexico was known. As the news escalated, oil, gasoline and other commodities spiked Wednesday and Thursday, including gold.
This report turns from bearish to neutral until we can see the COT changes this coming Friday, which should give us an idea of how the LC’s were positioned following the $12 spike up in the gold price. However, a great deal depends on market perception of the long-term effects of the Katrina devastation. This is the kind of event that certainly has the potential to trigger the caveat in last week’s report, reprinted below.
The area between $445 and $456 for spot gold represents increasingly stiff resistance and has for nearly a year. Should that resistance give way, the resulting breakout could be dramatic. Caution is strongly advised for those betting on the short side.
By Gene Arensberg
04 Sep 2005 at 06:14 PM EDT
COT GOLD REPORT
A weekly update combining the commitment of traders (COT) data usually released each Friday by the major exchanges, with reporting on the difference between the long and short positions of the largest traders in gold, the Large Commercials (LC’s) as of the previous Tuesday, with technical commentary by Gene Arensberg.
Special circumstances following Hurricane Katrina.
COT Synopsis: The gold futures markets traded the majority of this week under the effects of a bona fide natural disaster, but as of the Tuesday, 8/30 cutoff for the COT, aggressive long liquidations, probably combined with some short covering, resulted in an extremely high one-week rate of reduction in the large commercial net short positions (LCNS) relative to the $7 drop in the price of gold for the period.
Outlook Snapshot: September 3, 2005. Neutral, but much depends on market perception of the near and long-term effects of the natural disaster. A technical breakout in gold is possible short-term.
It is important to note that the LCNS reduction occurred prior to the full realization by the market of the unimaginable effects of the Category IV storm direct hit on New Orleans, an extremely important port city for commodities, and before the full extent of Katrina’s destructive march through the heart of the most important offshore oil and gas production and distribution facilities in the Gulf of Mexico was known. As the news escalated, oil, gasoline and other commodities spiked Wednesday and Thursday, including gold.
This report turns from bearish to neutral until we can see the COT changes this coming Friday, which should give us an idea of how the LC’s were positioned following the $12 spike up in the gold price. However, a great deal depends on market perception of the long-term effects of the Katrina devastation. This is the kind of event that certainly has the potential to trigger the caveat in last week’s report, reprinted below.
The area between $445 and $456 for spot gold represents increasingly stiff resistance and has for nearly a year. Should that resistance give way, the resulting breakout could be dramatic. Caution is strongly advised for those betting on the short side.
Gold is really fighting to get over $450/Toz. Since 1/9 the price is up from $430 to the mid $440s and it's now almost breaking a 10 year high, after many weeks of steady decline.
see charts at //www.goldprice.org
It'll be interesting to see whether they manage to keep it crammed under $450. And if they fail.... hee! hee!
see charts at //www.goldprice.org
It'll be interesting to see whether they manage to keep it crammed under $450. And if they fail.... hee! hee!
Gold futures climb to six-month high
Strong demand, inflation worries support precious metals
By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
Last Update: 1:10 PM ET Sept. 8, 2005
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The December contract for gold futures climbed to near $454 an ounce Thursday, its highest level since mid-March, supported by demand and inflation fears.
The possibility of "Fed Reserve inaction on a rate increase next week is like water to the precious metals 'garden'," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report. "Gold will bloom in this environment," he said.
Gold for December delivery climbed to a high of $453.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract hasn't traded that high since March 16, though it did touch a high slightly below that at $453.40 on Aug. 12. Prices were last at $450.70, up $1.70.
Elsewhere on the metals futures market, December silver traded down 5.8 cents at $7.06 an ounce and December copper slipped 2.7 cents to $1.65 a pound.
But the December contract for palladium added $1.40 to $186.10 an ounce and October platinum rose $3.10 to $912 an ounce.
Tracking inventories, copper supplies were up 128 short tons at 9,754 short tons as of late Wednesday, according to Nymex. Silver stocks were unchanged at 115.6 million troy ounces, while gold inventories stood at 6.00 million troy ounces, down 4,306 troy ounces from the previous session.
In equities, indexes covering the metal-mining sector headed higher for the first time in three sessions to trade at their highest levels since at least the middle of August.
The Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI: news, chart, profile) rose 1.8% to stand at 214.89 points, with a 3.7% climb in shares of Hecla Mining (HL: news, chart, profile) leading the climb.
The Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU: news, chart, profile) added 1.9% to 100.18 and the CBOE Gold Index (GOX: news, chart, profile) rose 2% to trade at 90.34
Strong demand, inflation worries support precious metals
By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
Last Update: 1:10 PM ET Sept. 8, 2005
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The December contract for gold futures climbed to near $454 an ounce Thursday, its highest level since mid-March, supported by demand and inflation fears.
The possibility of "Fed Reserve inaction on a rate increase next week is like water to the precious metals 'garden'," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report. "Gold will bloom in this environment," he said.
Gold for December delivery climbed to a high of $453.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract hasn't traded that high since March 16, though it did touch a high slightly below that at $453.40 on Aug. 12. Prices were last at $450.70, up $1.70.
Elsewhere on the metals futures market, December silver traded down 5.8 cents at $7.06 an ounce and December copper slipped 2.7 cents to $1.65 a pound.
But the December contract for palladium added $1.40 to $186.10 an ounce and October platinum rose $3.10 to $912 an ounce.
Tracking inventories, copper supplies were up 128 short tons at 9,754 short tons as of late Wednesday, according to Nymex. Silver stocks were unchanged at 115.6 million troy ounces, while gold inventories stood at 6.00 million troy ounces, down 4,306 troy ounces from the previous session.
In equities, indexes covering the metal-mining sector headed higher for the first time in three sessions to trade at their highest levels since at least the middle of August.
The Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI: news, chart, profile) rose 1.8% to stand at 214.89 points, with a 3.7% climb in shares of Hecla Mining (HL: news, chart, profile) leading the climb.
The Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU: news, chart, profile) added 1.9% to 100.18 and the CBOE Gold Index (GOX: news, chart, profile) rose 2% to trade at 90.34
Could this be the take-off we've been waiting for? Gold is absolutely on the point of breaking through $450/Toz:
Click to view attachment
It is now very nearly as high as the peak a year ago, since when it has been bouncing up and down getting nowhere.
Click to view attachment
It is now very nearly as high as the peak a year ago, since when it has been bouncing up and down getting nowhere.
One year ago $450 was the rally high. That level is now the base from where the next rally will begin. Higher highs, higher lows that sounds like a textbook bull market to me.
And by the way: $451, £245 and shooting up now (see chart).
Click to view attachment
And by the way: $451, £245 and shooting up now (see chart).
Click to view attachment
Gold Is Poised to Close at Nine-Month High on Inflation Concern
QUOTE
Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Gold in New York was poised for its highest closing price in nine months on speculation inflation will boost demand for the metal as a hedge against declines in other investments.
U.S. import prices rose 1.6 percent last month, the most in five months, as crude oil costs climbed, a Labor Department report showed today. Economists expected a rise of 1.4 percent, the median in a Bloomberg News survey. RBC Capital Markets today raised its gold-price forecasts into 2007, saying higher commodity prices may spur inflationary pressures.
``Inflation can definitely give gold a spike,'' said Mark Curran, who owns MC Trading LLC in New York. ..................
Some investors buy gold in times of inflation, which erodes the value of stocks and bonds. Gold rallied to a 16-year high of $458.70 on Dec. 2 as U.S. consumer prices rose 3.3 percent in 2004, the most in four years.
Gold may reach $600 an ounce or $700, ``even $1,000,'' New York technical analyst Louise Yamada said yesterday at a Bloomberg seminar. Yamada, Wall Street's top-ranked chart strategist while at Citigroup Inc., is the lone analyst who last year predicted oil would reach $67 a barrel. Oil soared to a record $70.85 on Aug. 30.
U.S. import prices rose 1.6 percent last month, the most in five months, as crude oil costs climbed, a Labor Department report showed today. Economists expected a rise of 1.4 percent, the median in a Bloomberg News survey. RBC Capital Markets today raised its gold-price forecasts into 2007, saying higher commodity prices may spur inflationary pressures.
``Inflation can definitely give gold a spike,'' said Mark Curran, who owns MC Trading LLC in New York. ..................
Some investors buy gold in times of inflation, which erodes the value of stocks and bonds. Gold rallied to a 16-year high of $458.70 on Dec. 2 as U.S. consumer prices rose 3.3 percent in 2004, the most in four years.
Gold may reach $600 an ounce or $700, ``even $1,000,'' New York technical analyst Louise Yamada said yesterday at a Bloomberg seminar. Yamada, Wall Street's top-ranked chart strategist while at Citigroup Inc., is the lone analyst who last year predicted oil would reach $67 a barrel. Oil soared to a record $70.85 on Aug. 30.
Curb that enthusiasn a little. The call / put ratio for gold shows that the market is well aware of the "gold-is-good story". Previous peaks in the ratio have often correlated with peaks in the price, so you may have to endure some short term draw-downs. (see first thumbnail)
None the less, if you want to do better than Gordon Brown, I really can't see that it matters when you buy / sell, as exemplified in the attached 20 year gold price chart I knocked up for your amusement. (see second thumbnail) Fell free to spread it widely.
A little chart analysis reveals that Gordon sold near recent support @ a 20 year low. Such i sthe influence of chancellors selling half their gold that he was able to force a break of support to save his most blatant blushes. Sadly for him (and Britain), the break of support only moved into a measured move that wasn't even string enough to touch its target (see attached thumbnail 3), or the floor of th edowntrand. In short, were it not for him, support @ th e20 year low could well have held. Since his selling @ or near 20 year lows the price has raced away upward.
And people reckon he knows where things are headed. Others call hiim a "lucky Chancellor". If they mean on account of the fact that boobs like his gold selling are overlooked bu media nad public, lucky indeed!
None the less, if you want to do better than Gordon Brown, I really can't see that it matters when you buy / sell, as exemplified in the attached 20 year gold price chart I knocked up for your amusement. (see second thumbnail) Fell free to spread it widely.
A little chart analysis reveals that Gordon sold near recent support @ a 20 year low. Such i sthe influence of chancellors selling half their gold that he was able to force a break of support to save his most blatant blushes. Sadly for him (and Britain), the break of support only moved into a measured move that wasn't even string enough to touch its target (see attached thumbnail 3), or the floor of th edowntrand. In short, were it not for him, support @ th e20 year low could well have held. Since his selling @ or near 20 year lows the price has raced away upward.
And people reckon he knows where things are headed. Others call hiim a "lucky Chancellor". If they mean on account of the fact that boobs like his gold selling are overlooked bu media nad public, lucky indeed!
QUOTE(Sledgehead @ Sep 12 2005, 09:41 AM)
Curb that enthusiasn a little. The call / put ratio for gold shows that the market is well aware of the "gold-is-good story". Previous peaks in the ratio have often correlated with peaks in the price, so you may have to endure some short term draw-downs. (see first thumbnail)................
Here's hoping for a "Blue Moon"
Dr Bubbs Blue Moon
QUOTE
+ COT reports showing Commercials with near-record short positions. Normally this is Bearish for gold. But "once in a blue moon", they get it wrong (as they did in oil), and wind up covering their shorts at high prices,
UPDATE 4-Gold looks to 17-year high above $456
QUOTE
LONDON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Gold was within dollars of its highest price in 17 years in Europe on Monday as political factors boosted the yen and knocked the euro, pushing investors into the safe haven asset. Bullion rose to its highest so far this year at $451.50 an ounce in Asia overnight....
Asked if gold could take out the December highs, he added: "Why not? There is a good chance and if people see the chance they will try it. I am quite optimistic."
Dealers said uncertainty over whether the U.S. Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at its next meeting on Sept. 20 has helped gold defy fears of a wider liquidation.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a U.S. regulator, said on Friday the net amount of buying by investors on New York gold futures was up on the week at 14.9 million ounces, short of a recent record of 19.4 million.
"It was a smaller increase than I was expecting, so that's slightly bullish and we've had a big move in gold against the euro," John Reade, precious metals analyst with UBS Investment Bank said.
He said this was reminiscent of a move in June, when euro-priced gold hit a record high after the euro was destabilised by the rejection of a European constitution.
Uncertainty over the outlook for the dollar and U.S. interest rates after Hurricane Katrina had also helped the latest rally................
Asked if gold could take out the December highs, he added: "Why not? There is a good chance and if people see the chance they will try it. I am quite optimistic."
Dealers said uncertainty over whether the U.S. Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at its next meeting on Sept. 20 has helped gold defy fears of a wider liquidation.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a U.S. regulator, said on Friday the net amount of buying by investors on New York gold futures was up on the week at 14.9 million ounces, short of a recent record of 19.4 million.
"It was a smaller increase than I was expecting, so that's slightly bullish and we've had a big move in gold against the euro," John Reade, precious metals analyst with UBS Investment Bank said.
He said this was reminiscent of a move in June, when euro-priced gold hit a record high after the euro was destabilised by the rejection of a European constitution.
Uncertainty over the outlook for the dollar and U.S. interest rates after Hurricane Katrina had also helped the latest rally................
QUOTE(Riser @ Sep 12 2005, 10:51 AM)
Here's hoping for a "Blue Moon"
(In thick Nu Yawk accent + mobster gear) Hey, wocken-eye-say? Me, I jus play da numbuz. Hope neva did me no damn good no neva.
Watch $455, €370, £250 and CHF 570. Once it gets to those levels it'll explode up fast.
Edit correct typo in € level
Edit correct typo in € level
QUOTE(cgnao @ Sep 14 2005, 05:27 PM)
Watch $455, €370, £250 and CHF 570. Once it gets to those levels it'll explode up fast.
Edit correct typo in € level
Edit correct typo in € level
Looks like your not the only one watching Euro Gold
QUOTE
GOLD: Technical analysts at Citigroup have been tracking euro-gold,
which is presently around E366, which is the high since the uptrend
began back in July/Aug 1999. "We can't stress enough that this
development with gold in dollar terms moving up rapidly from $429 in the
last two weeks to $450 today, while the dollar remians bid overall,
suggests to us that an explosive gold rally is coming - similar to what
happened after crude broke $41.15 last summer," Citigroup says. Their
target on a weekkly close over E366 in euro-gold would be a 12 to 24 mos
rally to E490, the analysts say.
which is presently around E366, which is the high since the uptrend
began back in July/Aug 1999. "We can't stress enough that this
development with gold in dollar terms moving up rapidly from $429 in the
last two weeks to $450 today, while the dollar remians bid overall,
suggests to us that an explosive gold rally is coming - similar to what
happened after crude broke $41.15 last summer," Citigroup says. Their
target on a weekkly close over E366 in euro-gold would be a 12 to 24 mos
rally to E490, the analysts say.
Gold shares usually lead gold moves. Today the HUI index is up 8.59 to 223.64 (+4%) and has just broken overhead resistance. Which means we should be on the verge of a large move upwards.
EDIT
HUI closed up 10.50 to 225.59 (+4.88%)
Click to view attachment
While gold is grinding higher in all currencies
Click to view attachment
Click to view attachment
EDIT
HUI closed up 10.50 to 225.59 (+4.88%)
Click to view attachment
While gold is grinding higher in all currencies
Click to view attachment
Click to view attachment
Looks like a big move when NY opened this morning... currently at $454.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
GoldMoney Alert - 15 September 2005
Gold Breaks Out Against The Euro
Gold closed today in New York at €372.10 per ounce (€11.96 per goldgram). That's a new record high for gold against the 5-year old euro. It's a 15-year high against one of the euro's predecessors, the German mark. The significance of this breakout can be seen on the following chart.
After knocking against the €350 (€11.25) level for years, gold has finally broken through this overhead resistance.
Who was the persistent seller at this level? We know it wasn't the gold mining companies because they have on balance during this period been buying back their hedges, not adding new ones. The seller wasn't the gold accumulating countries in the Middle East or Asia because trade statistics show that they have continued to import gold, not dishoard it. It hasn't been the hedge funds because they are not in business to stop trends, but rather, to ride them – which the CFTC's commitment of traders report shows they have been trying to do. So who's left?
It's the central banks. GATA has proven this to be the case, and if you are not familiar with the work GATA has done or seen the impressive body of evidence it has compiled, then please review the material available for free on its website, www.GATA.org.
Does the break above €350 (€11.25) mean that central banks are now out of the picture? Probably not. They have one mission – to make the dollar look as if it is worthy of being the world's reserve currency when in fact it is not. They undertake many actions trying to accomplish this objective, and one of these is to keep a lid on gold.
After all, gold is the barometer by which all currencies are measured. A rising gold price demonstrates to the world that central bankers are doing a poor job managing national currencies.
The scheme works like this. Politicians want the money central bankers create 'out of thin air'. This newly created money debases national currencies, but central bankers cannot say no to the governments they have been created to serve. So to make believe that all is well with, for example, the world's most important currency as well as its reserve currency, the dollar, central banks sit on gold. They have been in effect trying to kill the messenger.
What do central banks do now? It is possible that they have run out of gold to sell. It is more likely that they have just 'thrown in the towel' for now in order to preserve what gold they have left. After all, it takes physical metal – and not just paper promises to deliver metal – to continue their effort to try keeping a lid on the gold price. So maybe central banks have decided to retreat to higher levels, at which point they will again start trying to keep a lid on gold. If they do, the logical level at which they 'circle the wagons' is $505 ($16.23), a level that marks 24-year highs.
My year-end target remains the same – $500 and €400, which implies a $1.25/€ rate of exchange.
Because it has been held back by central banks, gold has a lot of catching up to do with other commodities that are near or at record highs. That is the reality that always occurs when central bank try to thwart the power of the free market. Central banks can bend the market to their will for a while, distorting prices in the process, but the market always wins. And the market is about to prove this point to central banks yet again. All we need now is for gold to close in New York above $456 to make a new 17-year high, which is an event that could happen at any time.
One last point. In my last alert I stated: “It looks to me like gold is sitting on a rocket pad and is ready for lift-off.” You can see what I meant by looking at the above chart. The red and green lines define the launch pad, and the gold price is the rocket. Its launch has just begun.
Gold Breaks Out Against The Euro
Gold closed today in New York at €372.10 per ounce (€11.96 per goldgram). That's a new record high for gold against the 5-year old euro. It's a 15-year high against one of the euro's predecessors, the German mark. The significance of this breakout can be seen on the following chart.
After knocking against the €350 (€11.25) level for years, gold has finally broken through this overhead resistance.
Who was the persistent seller at this level? We know it wasn't the gold mining companies because they have on balance during this period been buying back their hedges, not adding new ones. The seller wasn't the gold accumulating countries in the Middle East or Asia because trade statistics show that they have continued to import gold, not dishoard it. It hasn't been the hedge funds because they are not in business to stop trends, but rather, to ride them – which the CFTC's commitment of traders report shows they have been trying to do. So who's left?
It's the central banks. GATA has proven this to be the case, and if you are not familiar with the work GATA has done or seen the impressive body of evidence it has compiled, then please review the material available for free on its website, www.GATA.org.
Does the break above €350 (€11.25) mean that central banks are now out of the picture? Probably not. They have one mission – to make the dollar look as if it is worthy of being the world's reserve currency when in fact it is not. They undertake many actions trying to accomplish this objective, and one of these is to keep a lid on gold.
After all, gold is the barometer by which all currencies are measured. A rising gold price demonstrates to the world that central bankers are doing a poor job managing national currencies.
The scheme works like this. Politicians want the money central bankers create 'out of thin air'. This newly created money debases national currencies, but central bankers cannot say no to the governments they have been created to serve. So to make believe that all is well with, for example, the world's most important currency as well as its reserve currency, the dollar, central banks sit on gold. They have been in effect trying to kill the messenger.
What do central banks do now? It is possible that they have run out of gold to sell. It is more likely that they have just 'thrown in the towel' for now in order to preserve what gold they have left. After all, it takes physical metal – and not just paper promises to deliver metal – to continue their effort to try keeping a lid on the gold price. So maybe central banks have decided to retreat to higher levels, at which point they will again start trying to keep a lid on gold. If they do, the logical level at which they 'circle the wagons' is $505 ($16.23), a level that marks 24-year highs.
My year-end target remains the same – $500 and €400, which implies a $1.25/€ rate of exchange.
Because it has been held back by central banks, gold has a lot of catching up to do with other commodities that are near or at record highs. That is the reality that always occurs when central bank try to thwart the power of the free market. Central banks can bend the market to their will for a while, distorting prices in the process, but the market always wins. And the market is about to prove this point to central banks yet again. All we need now is for gold to close in New York above $456 to make a new 17-year high, which is an event that could happen at any time.
One last point. In my last alert I stated: “It looks to me like gold is sitting on a rocket pad and is ready for lift-off.” You can see what I meant by looking at the above chart. The red and green lines define the launch pad, and the gold price is the rocket. Its launch has just begun.
cgnao.
At what point would you decide to sell? Or are you determined to hold for the long term?
At what point would you decide to sell? Or are you determined to hold for the long term?
QUOTE(Red Baron @ Sep 16 2005, 11:13 AM)
cgnao.
At what point would you decide to sell? Or are you determined to hold for the long term?
At what point would you decide to sell? Or are you determined to hold for the long term?
I'll look into selling when I can buy the DOW Jones index for under 3 ounces of gold. Today it costs about 23 ounces.
Up another 1% in most currencies, including the mighty Swiss Franc, in the last 24 hours.
$459, £254.19, €375.46, CHF 582.79
Watch out, on Monday the FED will decide on US interest rates. If Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan stops rising rates gold will explode upwards.
$459, £254.19, €375.46, CHF 582.79
Watch out, on Monday the FED will decide on US interest rates. If Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan stops rising rates gold will explode upwards.
Interesting article from advfn, talks about the US but rings true for us here in the UK. Many expect gold to gap up on Monday then pull back for a couple of weeks before moving through $470 by the end of the year.
QUOTE
scarface01 - 16 Sep'05 - 19:55 - 10225 of 10228
September 17, 2005
Gold or the Government, which do you believe?
by Peter Schiff
Earlier this week, Wall Street Pollyannas reacted with glee to the release of seemingly mild producer and consumer prices data. While August PPI and CPI rose .6% and .5%, annualizing to 7.5% and 6% respectively, the completely meaningless, highly manipulated, "core" numbers, which have conveniently become the only figures making headlines, were far less alarming. According to the government, August "core" PPI was unchanged, while "core" CPI rose a scant .1%.
However, not to be fooled, the price of gold, considered by many to be the ultimate inflation indicator, rose to a new seventeen year high, gaining about ten dollars this week, and over twenty dollars in the last three. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) gained about 7% on the week, bringing its three-week gain to 17%. Gold's recent surge confirms the break-out that I first wrote about on June 6th "Gold & Oil Could Force Surprise ECB Rate Hike" and again on June 17th "Gold's Trifecta Reveals Dollar's Diminished Status" available on my web site at http://www.europac.net/archives.asp?year=2005&qtr=2.
As the price of Gold tends to rise in inflationary periods, economists should ask themselves if they believe the government or gold. History and recent anecdotal evidence certainly favor gold. On Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturers report for September revealed that despite a sharp slowdown, its prices paid index surged 257 points to its highest reading since January. In addition, this week the national average price of unleaded gasoline breached the three dollar per gallon level for the first time ever, exceeding the inflation adjusted peak of $2.94 set back in 1981. Actually, today's average would be even higher if it reflected the same percentage of gas sold at full service prices as was the case 1981.
Also the week saw fresh releases of trade and current account deficit data. As an example of the power of diminished expectations, July's horrific $57.9 Billion trade deficit was greeted as good news, as it was less than the slightly more horrifying $60 billion that had been feared. The second quarter current account deficit, which came in at a higher than expected $195.7 billion, would have been a new all-time record, had it not been for the upward revision of the first quarter current account deficit to $198.7 billion. The $3 billion narrowing in the quarterly current account deficit (the first time since 2003) can hardly be seen as progress, as it resulted entirely from a $4.4 billion reduction in foreign aid. Widening trade and current account deficits will exert additional downward pressure on the dollar and upward pressure on consumer prices. Finally, President Bush's "Marshall Plan" for the Gulf Coast will only fuel inflation's fire, as the money needed to fund it will either be created by the Fed, or borrowed from abroad.
Perhaps the most important reason to be skeptical of government inflation numbers is that the government, like a fox campaigning to guard a hen house, has many reasons to be disingenuous. As the world's largest debtor, the Federal Government is inflation's primary beneficiary. More importantly, for America's bubble economy to continue expanding, politicians must keep consumers borrowing and spending. By transferring wealth from creditors to debtors, inflation helps makes this possible. For debtors, inflation reduces the real burden of debt service, while simultaneously increasing the prices of their assets, particularly their houses. Unfortunately for creditors, the vast majority of American voters are debtors, and monetary policy is therefore conducted specifically to benefit the latter.
Considering the fact that so many creditors are foreigners, and therefore ineligible to vote, this amounts to a political no-brainer.
However, this policy can only "succeed" as long as the Government can con America's creditors into believing that inflation is not a threat, even as it creates it with increased veracity. Recent evidence suggests that this propaganda campaign is beginning to wear thin. This week's pronounced weakness in the bond market, despite soft economic data and "benign core" inflation numbers, reveals that more investors are getting wise to the con, and looking to gold rather than the government as a reliable indicator of inflation.
The best defense against inflation is not to own the currency being inflated, in this case the U.S. dollar. Download my free research report "The Collapsing Dollar: The Powerful Case for Investing in Foreign Equities" at http://www.researchreport1.com and protect yourself.
Peter Schiff C.E.O. and Chief Global Strategist
Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
September 17, 2005
Gold or the Government, which do you believe?
by Peter Schiff
Earlier this week, Wall Street Pollyannas reacted with glee to the release of seemingly mild producer and consumer prices data. While August PPI and CPI rose .6% and .5%, annualizing to 7.5% and 6% respectively, the completely meaningless, highly manipulated, "core" numbers, which have conveniently become the only figures making headlines, were far less alarming. According to the government, August "core" PPI was unchanged, while "core" CPI rose a scant .1%.
However, not to be fooled, the price of gold, considered by many to be the ultimate inflation indicator, rose to a new seventeen year high, gaining about ten dollars this week, and over twenty dollars in the last three. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) gained about 7% on the week, bringing its three-week gain to 17%. Gold's recent surge confirms the break-out that I first wrote about on June 6th "Gold & Oil Could Force Surprise ECB Rate Hike" and again on June 17th "Gold's Trifecta Reveals Dollar's Diminished Status" available on my web site at http://www.europac.net/archives.asp?year=2005&qtr=2.
As the price of Gold tends to rise in inflationary periods, economists should ask themselves if they believe the government or gold. History and recent anecdotal evidence certainly favor gold. On Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturers report for September revealed that despite a sharp slowdown, its prices paid index surged 257 points to its highest reading since January. In addition, this week the national average price of unleaded gasoline breached the three dollar per gallon level for the first time ever, exceeding the inflation adjusted peak of $2.94 set back in 1981. Actually, today's average would be even higher if it reflected the same percentage of gas sold at full service prices as was the case 1981.
Also the week saw fresh releases of trade and current account deficit data. As an example of the power of diminished expectations, July's horrific $57.9 Billion trade deficit was greeted as good news, as it was less than the slightly more horrifying $60 billion that had been feared. The second quarter current account deficit, which came in at a higher than expected $195.7 billion, would have been a new all-time record, had it not been for the upward revision of the first quarter current account deficit to $198.7 billion. The $3 billion narrowing in the quarterly current account deficit (the first time since 2003) can hardly be seen as progress, as it resulted entirely from a $4.4 billion reduction in foreign aid. Widening trade and current account deficits will exert additional downward pressure on the dollar and upward pressure on consumer prices. Finally, President Bush's "Marshall Plan" for the Gulf Coast will only fuel inflation's fire, as the money needed to fund it will either be created by the Fed, or borrowed from abroad.
Perhaps the most important reason to be skeptical of government inflation numbers is that the government, like a fox campaigning to guard a hen house, has many reasons to be disingenuous. As the world's largest debtor, the Federal Government is inflation's primary beneficiary. More importantly, for America's bubble economy to continue expanding, politicians must keep consumers borrowing and spending. By transferring wealth from creditors to debtors, inflation helps makes this possible. For debtors, inflation reduces the real burden of debt service, while simultaneously increasing the prices of their assets, particularly their houses. Unfortunately for creditors, the vast majority of American voters are debtors, and monetary policy is therefore conducted specifically to benefit the latter.
Considering the fact that so many creditors are foreigners, and therefore ineligible to vote, this amounts to a political no-brainer.
However, this policy can only "succeed" as long as the Government can con America's creditors into believing that inflation is not a threat, even as it creates it with increased veracity. Recent evidence suggests that this propaganda campaign is beginning to wear thin. This week's pronounced weakness in the bond market, despite soft economic data and "benign core" inflation numbers, reveals that more investors are getting wise to the con, and looking to gold rather than the government as a reliable indicator of inflation.
The best defense against inflation is not to own the currency being inflated, in this case the U.S. dollar. Download my free research report "The Collapsing Dollar: The Powerful Case for Investing in Foreign Equities" at http://www.researchreport1.com and protect yourself.
Peter Schiff C.E.O. and Chief Global Strategist
Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
Update from James Turk of GoldMoney
QUOTE
Gold Breaks Out Against the Dollar
As I have noted repeatedly in these alerts, gold remains undervalued. This reality is becoming better recognized, and as a consequence, greater amounts of money are flowing out of national currencies into the safety and security of gold. Given the growing financial uncertainty in most of the world's major economies, this money-flow trend will continue, which I expect will drive gold higher – and in time over my $500 near-term target.
As I have noted repeatedly in these alerts, gold remains undervalued. This reality is becoming better recognized, and as a consequence, greater amounts of money are flowing out of national currencies into the safety and security of gold. Given the growing financial uncertainty in most of the world's major economies, this money-flow trend will continue, which I expect will drive gold higher – and in time over my $500 near-term target.
QUOTE(cgnao @ Sep 17 2005, 09:21 PM)
Given the growing financial uncertainty in most of the world's major economies, this money-flow trend will continue, which I expect will drive gold higher – and in time over my $500 near-term target.
If Germany gets a hung parliment there are concerns that they will not be able to agree on the reforms necessary to get the economy back on track, that could affect confidence in the Euro and see a flight to gold as both Sterling and the Dollar offer little security.
Gold hits 17-year high amid inflation concerns
QUOTE
..........“I never thought that I would see gold become an inflation story again,” said Mr Gornall. Investors have piled into gold in recent months. On the Comex exchange in New York, the open interest, which is the number of contracts bought by investors, is more than 320,000 contracts. This equates to about 32.5m ounces of gold or about four years of mine supply.
“We have never seen open interest numbers like this before,” said Mr Gornall. Many of these investors are betting on rising prices. Analysts estimate speculative investors are net long on gold by close to 20m ounces.
Investors have also been big buyers of gold financial products. Streettracks Gold, the gold price tracking fund, has more than 200 tonnes of gold held on deposit on behalf of investors after making its market debut last November. This investor buying is not insignificant as it amounts to about 5 per cent of global gold demand.
Alan Williamson, precious metals analyst at HSBC, said further short-term gains were possible. “However, as the net long position approaches a maximum . . . some profit-taking is likely, if not inevitable.”...........
“We have never seen open interest numbers like this before,” said Mr Gornall. Many of these investors are betting on rising prices. Analysts estimate speculative investors are net long on gold by close to 20m ounces.
Investors have also been big buyers of gold financial products. Streettracks Gold, the gold price tracking fund, has more than 200 tonnes of gold held on deposit on behalf of investors after making its market debut last November. This investor buying is not insignificant as it amounts to about 5 per cent of global gold demand.
Alan Williamson, precious metals analyst at HSBC, said further short-term gains were possible. “However, as the net long position approaches a maximum . . . some profit-taking is likely, if not inevitable.”...........
WE are into the Blue Moon scenario, but Commercials are still not covering yet:
+LONG+ -SHORT-: Comm'rl ++LONG+ -SHORT- RATIO Lg.Spec : DATE =Price=
(GOLD): Futures -NetSht Combi'd w/Opts. CmS/L Net.LgF ..Tues Lond.pm
.GOLD. ........ ....... ....... ....... ..... ...... ....... ....... ........
63,202 221,991 -158,789. 82,281 252,149 3.06 126,798 .. 9.13 $445.40
56,461 205,078 -148,617. 73,990 233,537 3.16 115,252 .. 9.06 $444.15
58,835 198,485 -139,650. 73,833 225,949 3.06 109,833 .. 8.30 $430.65
48,371 242,245 -193,874. 70,462 271,634 3.86 159,687 .. 8.23 $439.35
46,115 239,481 -193,366. 70,705 272,116 3.85 157,607 .. 8.16 $443.00
48,576 199,406 -150,830. 66,051 223,909 3.39 117,699 .. 8.09 $433.30
55,334 155,141 - 99,807. 71,960 178,522 2.48 +65,569 .. 8.02 $431.00
68,301 151,110 - 82,809. 80,207 172,186 2.15 +49,022 .. 7.26 $423.25
75,991 160,039 - 84,048. 94,792 185,349 1.96 +54,111 .. 7.19 $419.25
66,138 177,046 -110,908. 84,726 202,309 2.39 +73,722 .. 7.12 $426.25
54,747 195,088 -140,341. 74,704 221,863 2.97 104,874 .. 7.05 $423.75
49,769 215,343 -165,574. 69,972 248,529 3.55 129,931 .. 6.28 $437.00
51,923 195,985 -144,062. 73,890 227,295 3.08 108,510 .. 6.21 $435.20
65,549 153,639 - 88,090. 82,434 175,074 2.12 +56,861 .. 6.14 $426.85
71,621 138,673 - 67,052. 86,596 157,183 1.82 +39,107 .. 6.07 $424.10
80,741 133,737 - 52,996. 92,986 148,726 1.60 +32,965 adj5.31 $415.35
80,741 133,737 - 52,996 113,281 148,726 1.31 +32,965 .. 5.31 $415.35
91,915 152,378 - 60,537 116,516 186,319 1.60 +39,509 .. 5.24 $418.30
81,363 161,224 - 79,861 105,303 194,816 1.85 +55,944 .. 5.17 $420.00
79,372 187,921 -108,549 104,443 224,286 2.15 +80,378 .. 5.10 $427.40
67,838 205,533 -137,695. 93,026 241,829 2.60 107,728 .. 5.03 $427.90
57,612 226,901 -169,289. 83,662 267,843 3.20 137,777 .. 4.26 $437.00
61,372 204,959 -143,587. 87,329 244,512 2.80 114,392 .. 4.19 $427.45
64,126 206,155 -142,029. 87,927 244,152 2.78 113,344 .. 4.12 $427.30
+LONG+ -SHORT-: Comm'rl ++LONG+ -SHORT- RATIO Lg.Spec : DATE =Price=
(GOLD): Futures -NetSht Combi'd w/Opts. CmS/L Net.LgF ..Tues Lond.pm
.GOLD. ........ ....... ....... ....... ..... ...... ....... ....... ........
63,202 221,991 -158,789. 82,281 252,149 3.06 126,798 .. 9.13 $445.40
56,461 205,078 -148,617. 73,990 233,537 3.16 115,252 .. 9.06 $444.15
58,835 198,485 -139,650. 73,833 225,949 3.06 109,833 .. 8.30 $430.65
48,371 242,245 -193,874. 70,462 271,634 3.86 159,687 .. 8.23 $439.35
46,115 239,481 -193,366. 70,705 272,116 3.85 157,607 .. 8.16 $443.00
48,576 199,406 -150,830. 66,051 223,909 3.39 117,699 .. 8.09 $433.30
55,334 155,141 - 99,807. 71,960 178,522 2.48 +65,569 .. 8.02 $431.00
68,301 151,110 - 82,809. 80,207 172,186 2.15 +49,022 .. 7.26 $423.25
75,991 160,039 - 84,048. 94,792 185,349 1.96 +54,111 .. 7.19 $419.25
66,138 177,046 -110,908. 84,726 202,309 2.39 +73,722 .. 7.12 $426.25
54,747 195,088 -140,341. 74,704 221,863 2.97 104,874 .. 7.05 $423.75
49,769 215,343 -165,574. 69,972 248,529 3.55 129,931 .. 6.28 $437.00
51,923 195,985 -144,062. 73,890 227,295 3.08 108,510 .. 6.21 $435.20
65,549 153,639 - 88,090. 82,434 175,074 2.12 +56,861 .. 6.14 $426.85
71,621 138,673 - 67,052. 86,596 157,183 1.82 +39,107 .. 6.07 $424.10
80,741 133,737 - 52,996. 92,986 148,726 1.60 +32,965 adj5.31 $415.35
80,741 133,737 - 52,996 113,281 148,726 1.31 +32,965 .. 5.31 $415.35
91,915 152,378 - 60,537 116,516 186,319 1.60 +39,509 .. 5.24 $418.30
81,363 161,224 - 79,861 105,303 194,816 1.85 +55,944 .. 5.17 $420.00
79,372 187,921 -108,549 104,443 224,286 2.15 +80,378 .. 5.10 $427.40
67,838 205,533 -137,695. 93,026 241,829 2.60 107,728 .. 5.03 $427.90
57,612 226,901 -169,289. 83,662 267,843 3.20 137,777 .. 4.26 $437.00
61,372 204,959 -143,587. 87,329 244,512 2.80 114,392 .. 4.19 $427.45
64,126 206,155 -142,029. 87,927 244,152 2.78 113,344 .. 4.12 $427.30
Euro hit by German vote deadlock
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4259134.stm
This will make the Euro gold price higher, which will attract more european investors to Gold.
And if the euro drops below 0.66 GBP, it will be a very convenient dip to buy Euros.
I think the Euro and the Swiss Franc are long term buys and the GBP will in due course sink together with the USD.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4259134.stm
This will make the Euro gold price higher, which will attract more european investors to Gold.
And if the euro drops below 0.66 GBP, it will be a very convenient dip to buy Euros.
I think the Euro and the Swiss Franc are long term buys and the GBP will in due course sink together with the USD.
Pushing up, it's now $461, £256, €380, CHF 589.
It will be interesting to see if there is a significant pullback before it gets to $500, but don't bet the house on it.
It will be interesting to see if there is a significant pullback before it gets to $500, but don't bet the house on it.
QUOTE(cgnao @ Sep 19 2005, 09:32 AM)
Pushing up, it's now $461, £256, €380.
It will be interesting to see if there is a significant pullback before it gets to $500, but don't bet the house on it.
It will be interesting to see if there is a significant pullback before it gets to $500, but don't bet the house on it.
Don't you expect a lot of selling in advance of Sept 26th (perhaps central banks
going back to depressing the price) ?
Pent
I hope, so I can buy more gold at cheap prices. But I would not bet on it. When the masses wake up, central banks will be powerless and the price will explode.
Silver is at it too:
http://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html
Glad I bought the 10oz Kookaburra when I did.....
http://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html
Glad I bought the 10oz Kookaburra when I did.....
QUOTE(Nijo @ Sep 19 2005, 10:26 AM)
Well the answer is 'no' as they keep changing the scale.
But $465 and counting...
QUOTE(malco @ Sep 19 2005, 12:32 PM)
Silver is at it too:
http://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html
Glad I bought the 10oz Kookaburra when I did.....
http://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html
Glad I bought the 10oz Kookaburra when I did.....
I bought some silver today on an unallocated account had to take the noon spot but thats ok.
Problem with buying new silver coins in the UK is you have to pay VAT. If you buy on an unallocated account you have no VAT to pay unless you make it allocated and take it off the premesis.
Goooo Goooold
Edit: Oil just shot up to $66 DPB and it looks Like Rita is comming to dinner:
Gold Prices Rise, Extends Rally to 17-Year High, on Inflation Concerns
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=710...fer=commodities
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=710...fer=commodities
QUOTE(Riser @ Sep 19 2005, 03:52 PM)
I bought some silver today on an unallocated account had to take the noon spot but thats ok.
Problem with buying new silver coins in the UK is you have to pay VAT. If you buy on an unallocated account you have no VAT to pay unless you make it allocated and take it off the premesis.
Problem with buying new silver coins in the UK is you have to pay VAT. If you buy on an unallocated account you have no VAT to pay unless you make it allocated and take it off the premesis.
Riser: Where abouts are you buying you unallocated silver? With the low price of silver I'm willing take the risk, but not willing to give GB any VAT.
QUOTE(kinesin @ Sep 19 2005, 06:00 PM)
Riser: Where abouts are you buying you unallocated silver? With the low price of silver I'm willing take the risk, but not willing to give GB any VAT.
Baird & Co buy 50kg 4% > Spot Sell back <1%: GoldLine.co.uk
Have a read of Dr Bubbs thread as silver shares or spreadbet may be better depending on your level of risk
QUOTE
SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- Gold futures closed at their highest level since late
December of 1987, according to monthly charts. That's the same month prices
topped $500 an ounce. "The billions of dollars to be spent on Katrina recovery
will be monetized by the Federal Reserve as foreign investors lose their
appetite for U.S. debt," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report.
"That realization is bad for the dollar, and good for gold." December gold
closed at $470.40 an ounce, up $7.10, or 1.5%. December silver ended at $7.398
an ounce, up 11 cents after a three-month high of $7.50.
December of 1987, according to monthly charts. That's the same month prices
topped $500 an ounce. "The billions of dollars to be spent on Katrina recovery
will be monetized by the Federal Reserve as foreign investors lose their
appetite for U.S. debt," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report.
"That realization is bad for the dollar, and good for gold." December gold
closed at $470.40 an ounce, up $7.10, or 1.5%. December silver ended at $7.398
an ounce, up 11 cents after a three-month high of $7.50.
USD469.50 GBP260.00 EUR386.14 CHF599.50
Note it is about to break CHF600. Expect further acceleration if this level is broken decisively.
Note it is about to break CHF600. Expect further acceleration if this level is broken decisively.
bit gutted that I've only managed to acquire just under 8 ounces so far. 
did pick up a 1968 sovereign on ebay for £50 +£5 p&p though, which was a bit of a bargain
did pick up a 1968 sovereign on ebay for £50 +£5 p&p though, which was a bit of a bargain
It's dropped from a peak of $470 down to $464 today. Still way above the previous 'ceiling' of $450.
QUOTE(Nijo @ Sep 20 2005, 04:31 PM)
It's dropped from a peak of $470 down to $464 today. Still way above the previous 'ceiling' of $450.
I'd expect a lot of retrenchments during any bull run, even deeper than this - par for the course. Nature is trying to shake off the uncommitted.
From Kitco - Interesting battle on POG in New York Access market after the FED decision to raise US interest rates, speculation that an anti-gold derivative may be close to blowing up.
There are some crazy posters on the Kitco board but the price looks like a game of ping pong. Looks like as soon as someone tries to drive the price down by ever larger sells, someone else is mopping them up to a fixed price of 466 I wonder who will win
Gold Spot
Click to view attachmentGold Dollar Spot Sept 20
Edit:
There are some crazy posters on the Kitco board but the price looks like a game of ping pong. Looks like as soon as someone tries to drive the price down by ever larger sells, someone else is mopping them up to a fixed price of 466 I wonder who will win
Gold Spot
Click to view attachmentGold Dollar Spot Sept 20
Edit:
QUOTE
Watching CNN, they interrupted with breaking news that the NHC is expecting Rita to reach Cat 4 status by 2pm tomorrow..
The important level is 600 Swiss Franc. It's being tested again now. We may see a pullback but if it's broken decisively it will be fireworks.
Click to view attachment
Click to view attachment
QUOTE(cgnao @ Sep 14 2005, 05:27 PM)
Watch $455, €370, £250 and CHF 570. Once it gets to those levels it'll explode up fast.
Edit correct typo in € level
Edit correct typo in € level
Why has the level for fireworks/explosions/rocket launch gone from CHF570 to CHF600?
GOLD SHARES... Downtrends Breaking
There is a good chance that if the gold sector continues to rally next week, the 50-day average will cross above the 200-day average confirming a renewed intermediate-term uptrend. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of this week's trading on the FSJG Index was the change over in leadership, which took place as the Small Cap Golds actually outperformed their higher-cap brethren for the first time in many months.
...even the Explorers are picking up...
...MORE: http://www.financialsense.com/metals/FSJG/2005/0923.html
There is a good chance that if the gold sector continues to rally next week, the 50-day average will cross above the 200-day average confirming a renewed intermediate-term uptrend. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of this week's trading on the FSJG Index was the change over in leadership, which took place as the Small Cap Golds actually outperformed their higher-cap brethren for the first time in many months.
...even the Explorers are picking up...
...MORE: http://www.financialsense.com/metals/FSJG/2005/0923.html
I’ve been thinking about the seriously pessimistic scenario for the US/UK and Western economies generally, as portrayed in the Observer:
http://www.in2perspective.com/articles/-uk...y-up-to-50-.jsp
Let’s say there is a grain of truth amongst the hype for the book. What are the prospects for gold and oil? A collapse in demand must mean a fall in the oil price, yeah? And that implies a fall in the price of gold.
Well maybe, or maybe not. The complication is the $2 Trillion held by Japan, China, Taiwan and South Korea. They must be aware of the risk that these holdings are at risk of shrivelling. So what game plan have they? They must seek to turn their dollars into assets – commodities – while their dollars have value, but if they sell their treasury bills they’ll shrivel the dollar. Catch 22. What will they do?
Could they wrap it all up by tying into futures contracts? Could they spend $2 Trillion on futures in oil, gold, strategic commodities, all priced in dollars, without being too obvious about it? Then all they do is spend the dollars as the contracts come due, and that shrivels the dollar, but they will be protected by their contracts. Gold and silver would fly as the world drops the dollar and flees to safe havens, oil would eventually fall as demand from the West falls.
The only other option is to be “fastest off the block”, the Asian nations dump their dollars the instant any crisis starts and hope to get as much as they can for them. In this case oil, gold, the Swiss Franc, silver, all commodities would go to the moon and then collapse. Except for gold, gold would do well either way as the world flees dollars into the safe currency.
The aftermath of both of the above is, I suspect, that the Chinese in particular turn away from the West and concentrate on building their internal economy and fixing trade links for commodities they don’t have. The Chinese are traditionally a society run by a monolithic aristocratic bureaucracy. They show no sign of changing that and will probably be happy enough to turn away from the West and its pesky ideas about democracy, freedom of speech, opposition to execution etc etc.
I’m opening this one to discussion. Basically the effect of dollar failure could be a spike in gold and silver, after which some decline. Any ideas?
http://www.in2perspective.com/articles/-uk...y-up-to-50-.jsp
Let’s say there is a grain of truth amongst the hype for the book. What are the prospects for gold and oil? A collapse in demand must mean a fall in the oil price, yeah? And that implies a fall in the price of gold.
Well maybe, or maybe not. The complication is the $2 Trillion held by Japan, China, Taiwan and South Korea. They must be aware of the risk that these holdings are at risk of shrivelling. So what game plan have they? They must seek to turn their dollars into assets – commodities – while their dollars have value, but if they sell their treasury bills they’ll shrivel the dollar. Catch 22. What will they do?
Could they wrap it all up by tying into futures contracts? Could they spend $2 Trillion on futures in oil, gold, strategic commodities, all priced in dollars, without being too obvious about it? Then all they do is spend the dollars as the contracts come due, and that shrivels the dollar, but they will be protected by their contracts. Gold and silver would fly as the world drops the dollar and flees to safe havens, oil would eventually fall as demand from the West falls.
The only other option is to be “fastest off the block”, the Asian nations dump their dollars the instant any crisis starts and hope to get as much as they can for them. In this case oil, gold, the Swiss Franc, silver, all commodities would go to the moon and then collapse. Except for gold, gold would do well either way as the world flees dollars into the safe currency.
The aftermath of both of the above is, I suspect, that the Chinese in particular turn away from the West and concentrate on building their internal economy and fixing trade links for commodities they don’t have. The Chinese are traditionally a society run by a monolithic aristocratic bureaucracy. They show no sign of changing that and will probably be happy enough to turn away from the West and its pesky ideas about democracy, freedom of speech, opposition to execution etc etc.
I’m opening this one to discussion. Basically the effect of dollar failure could be a spike in gold and silver, after which some decline. Any ideas?
So is gold flying/exploding/rocketing then?
QUOTE(DRS @ Sep 26 2005, 12:18 PM)
So is gold flying/exploding/rocketing then?
Up about $2.50 today. Gold will probably fall back to $440/oz when CBs start selling soon. After they are done, expect gold to start making new highs again (over $470/oz).
QUOTE(gone west @ Sep 26 2005, 11:58 PM)
Up about $2.50 today. Gold will probably fall back to $440/oz when CBs start selling soon. After they are done, expect gold to start making new highs again (over $470/oz).
Do you mind if I ask whether you have made any money out of investing in gold?
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