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consa
QUOTE(cgnao @ Jun 27 2005, 09:39 PM)
No gold in itself is not a currency.  Investment gold is VAT free since 1 January 2000, as required by an EU directive.

However British gold sovereigns and Britannias are still legal tender in the UK.  An interesting consequence of this is that they are exempt from capital gain. 

Capital Gains Manual - CG78307
Currency: coins: legal tender

Coins are to be regarded as currency only if they are legal tender at the time of their acquisition or disposal. Coins which are currency but not sterling, for example Krugerrands, are chargeable assets.
*


Interesting!! thanks for the VAT bit

Not quite so sure about gold not being currency/money, I will dig around as I believe gold to be money.
consa
QUOTE
Before we go any further, let me state for the record that gold is not a commodity. It is money. So when I am referring to commodity prices I am explicitly not including gold. Metal commodities are things like copper, zinc and lead.


http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/jan212005.html
cgnao
QUOTE(consa @ Jun 27 2005, 10:20 PM)
Not quite so sure about gold not being currency/money, I will dig around as I believe gold to be money.
*


I agree with you that gold is money. Actually silver and gold are the only sound money.

However legal tender laws are very precise. In Britain, only banknotes and coins minted by the Royal Mint are legal tender.
consa
QUOTE(cgnao @ Jun 27 2005, 10:45 PM)
I agree with you that gold is money.  Actually silver and gold are the only sound money. 

However legal tender laws are very precise.  In Britain, only banknotes and coins minted by the Royal Mint are legal tender.
*


I assume you are correct

So we have fiat money which is just printed at will with nothing but house prices to back it up. (the more they print the less your pound is worth) bit like share dilution in a way I suppose
or we have gold which for hundreds of years currency has been based on (except GB sold most of the UK's for a pittance)

Legal Tender or Gold, which would you choose when the banknotes become toilet paper? no contest really is it

I also agree silver is good but it does attract VAT which puts me off a bit, I opted for Krugers
cgnao
Gold sovereigns are sound money and legal tender in the UK.
DrBubb
GOLD IS CHEAP relative to oil

The below chart shows that the gold/oil ratio is currently testing the 20-year low reached in September of 2000. In fact, over the past 35 years the only time the gold/oil ratio has been lower than it is right now was during the second half of 1976 -- just prior to the start of a phenomenally bullish 3-year period for gold.




Significant strength in gold relative to cyclical commodities such as oil isn't likely to occur until after there are enough obvious economic/financial problems in the world for the markets to begin anticipating the next round of central-bank-sponsored inflation. As things currently stand, however, the financial markets appear to be anticipating a fairly benign outcome.

...MORE: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville062905.html
Silverity
QUOTE(cgnao @ Jun 27 2005, 09:45 PM)
I agree with you that gold is money.  Actually silver and gold are the only sound money. 

However legal tender laws are very precise.  In Britain, only banknotes and coins minted by the Royal Mint are legal tender.
*


Copper has also been used for low value currencies. It is a matter of what material was a good store of value for the given coin.

Also, it has to be said that gold, silver and some base metals are STILL monetized. Obviously we have the base metals constituting our coins but we also have the gold and silver Britannia coins which have a legal tender face value of £100 and £2 respectively. However, since this face value is far less than the spot price of gold and silver (£230/£4) and the added premium, they stay firmly out of circulation.

Once again, I'll state that silver can be bought VAT-free as old scrap 50% british coins on ebay.
debtfree
QUOTE(Van @ Feb 25 2005, 09:29 AM)
Still got them Muttley...

Actually a bit disappointed that we're "only" up to 62p with the good news. I believe OXS finals are due on monday, so perhaps judgement is being reserved for then. I hear their new broker has set a target price of 90p for OXS this year. Recent shenanigans just show what a bunch of gits the MMs are, trying to flush out weak holders with price falls on sod all volume etc.

Anyway, I've only been a holder for 6 months or so... I firmly believe the SP could double or triple over the medium term with Jerooy and 3 more mines coming online over the next few years!
Did I mention CNM...  wink.gif
*



ohmy.gif

bought OXS at 17p !!! sold at 52p... hi OXS owners !!! Mr Trew is very shrew

irrelevant. To all those people out there who dont believe in Gold...."an ounce of gold fifty years ago bought you a suit and so will an ounce of gold today, i ask you what would that money from fifty years ago buy today ?"

silver is the one too look out for... china, mobile phones, electronics, 1 billion population, india, ha, where do we go from here. it is still dirt cheap and the ratio with gold is 60+

the historical average is about 15 wink.gif


feel sorry for people who bought OXS when they poured.. hit 90p+ and has never been back since..... ohmy.gif(

Be careful, because when the financial storm hits the shores; your Broker might not hold your shares...? hence the name BROKEr

to buy physical gold check out www.goldline.co.uk its one of only 3 places in the UK to stock up on bars and coins. silver kilo bars are rare and nealry 40% above spot price value.

good luck and get ready for a global meltdown... unless your real dumb and read the papers ?

farming revolution - industrial revolution - information revolution (2000)
Van
QUOTE(debtfree @ Jul 2 2005, 06:29 AM)
ohmy.gif

bought OXS at 17p !!! sold at 52p... hi OXS owners !!! Mr Trew is very shrew

irrelevant. To all those people out there who dont believe in Gold...."an ounce of gold fifty years ago bought you a suit and so will an ounce of gold today, i ask you what would that money from fifty years ago buy today ?"

silver is the one too look out for... china, mobile phones, electronics, 1 billion population, india, ha, where do we go from here. it is still dirt cheap and the ratio with gold is 60+

the historical average is about 15  wink.gif
feel sorry for people who bought OXS when they poured.. hit 90p+ and has never been back since..... ohmy.gif(

Be careful, because when the financial storm hits the shores; your Broker might not hold your shares...? hence the name BROKEr

to buy physical gold check out www.goldline.co.uk its one of only 3 places in the UK to stock up on bars and coins. silver kilo bars are rare and nealry 40% above spot price value. 

good luck and get ready for a global meltdown... unless your real dumb and read the papers ?

farming revolution - industrial revolution - information revolution (2000)
*



Yeah, I sold out of OXS earlier at 64p. Gold has not really done the business over the last 12 months. Other commodities have done much better and are continuing to do so. Gold fluttering within at 10% trading range and doesn't look likely to breakout any time soon imo.
war
QUOTE(Van @ Jul 1 2005, 08:35 PM)
Yeah, I sold out of OXS earlier at 64p. Gold has not really done the business over the last 12 months. Other commodities have done much better and are continuing to do so. Gold fluttering within at 10% trading range and doesn't look likely to breakout any time soon imo.
*

Interesting article:

Gold futures log 3% weekly loss

QUOTE
Gold still has many hurdles to climb before it can gain the momentum it will need to really surge toward $500......The mixed-to-weak economic undertone across Europe and the U.S. and signs of an inventory adjustment in Asia are taking the pressure off metal demand......
cgnao
Mining shares have again started to outperform gold. Time to buy gold.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=%24HUI%3A%24gold
DrBubb
IMPROVING TRADE BALANCE- It's a temporary sham:

IT'S IN THE DETAIL... !

Look at THIS:

Mon/ Imports Exports =Deficit .China. ..Oil.. OPrice bbls
Apr. $ 163.4 $ 106.4 $ 57.0Bn $ 14.7b $ 19.4b $44.76 433m
May. $ 162.2 $ 106.9 $ 55.3Bn $ 15.8b $ 15.8b $43.08 366m

The DEFICIT improved by $1.7Bn.
Meantime, Oil imports dropped by $3.6 Billion,
which is more than TWICE as much.

$727 Million of this improvement was due to the lower Oil Price.
The rest, $2.9 Billion was due to LOWER oil imports- fewer barrels.

How sustainable is that!
In reality, it is mainly a seasonal things. Oil imports will rise again,
as we head into summer (july & august) and more in the Fall

@: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=8834394
cgnao
€350 has been a formidable resistance level for the past few years. After shooting to over €360 gold pulled back briefly to €346 but recovered very quicly to €349. Watch the €350 level carefully. If, as I expect, it is exceeded soon it will send a very strong signal and european investors will pile in.
malco
Hi, naive character has just joined this thread. A previous poster wrote:

>>It is quite easy to just pop-in to the local Hang Seng Bank during lunch and line up with all the old ladies to buy a few 1 Oz Gold Eagles (you can't do that at Barclays can you?).<<


And there you have the problem. In Britain, there does not seem to be a ready means of going and buying reliable bullion or coins just like that. I do not particularly like the idea of sending off several thousand quid into hyperspace in the hope my posty will turn up with a package of chinking coins some time later.

I am based in Edinburgh. What's the best way for me to buy gold coins/small bars? You should understand I am not by nature a player of markets, and my interest in gold is not in relation to making money, I just want to protect what I have. I just don't trust the financial system any more. Maybe I am paranoid - but I don't think so. I've never before felt such a sense of factors combining in a disastrous manner as at the moment. It should never have been allowed to happen.

In addition, I must admit to kind of liking the idea of owning some gold, but that is by the by.

Would I have to travel to London to be able to buy gold "over the counter"?

Any help and advice you can give is.. pure gold!

Many thanks.
cgnao
The yuan revaluation has finally happened today, cutting the US dollar bear rally short. But more importantly it is likely to set Gold on fire. This is a seminal event, likely to start the second phase of the secular gold bull market (when mainstream investors will start noticing).
cgnao
QUOTE(cgnao @ Jul 15 2005, 08:10 PM)
€350 has been a formidable resistance level for the past few years.  After shooting to over €360 gold pulled back briefly to €346 but recovered very quicly to €349.  Watch the €350 level carefully.  If, as I expect, it is exceeded soon it will send a very strong signal and european investors will pile in.
*


As expected, gold is back above €350. Click to view attachment

In the wake of the yuan revaluation, it jumped above $425.

It will go much higher.
DrBubb
WHAT Has Happened to Gold Volatility??



"But while abnormally low volatility is absolutely a danger sign for the general stock markets, a harbinger of a sharp fall to restore balance to sentiment, with gold’s inverted volatility profile it is actually bullish. Amazingly enough, gold is much more likely to rise considerably after low volatility periods. Our next chart delves into this phenomenon, zooming into the gold interday volatility data since today’s secular gold bull launched in 2001."



"Bull to date there have been seven high-volatility episodes, all marked and numbered in red above. 1 and 2, both in 2001, each occurred on sharp spikes up in the price of gold. If you weren’t paying close attention back in the early days of this bull, short covering was often the reason for sharp but short-lived spikes higher. With gold languishing around $275 at the time few believed in it except belligerent contrarians. Thankfully we gold investors have come a long way from those humble beginnings.

High-vola episodes 3, 4, 5, and 7 also occurred when gold prices were relatively high compared to their surrounding technical price environment. At episode 6 the gold price was also high relative to where it had come from but after a short correction soon reversed and roared higher. And the 3, 4, 6, and 7 volatility highs are centered just to the right of their respective gold tops, so they were likely spawned by the resulting correction and not the actual initial run up to the top like 1, 2, and 5.
. . .
On the other side of the volatility pendulum there have been nine gold volatility lows in this bull to date. After each one of these gold rose, sometimes a great deal and sometimes not so much. Speculators would have been well served to buy at all of these vola lows except one, episode 6. The other eight of nine marked times when gold was priced below where it would soon be and hence a good time to throw long."

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hamilton/jul222005.html
DrBubb
(from the Really Useful Gold thread on Advfn):

energyi - 23 Jul'05 - 07:39 - 9223 of 9224 postings

BACK IN THE BULLISH territory, are the COT figures

+LONG+ -SHORT-: Comm'rl ++LONG+ -SHORT- RATIO Lg.Spec : DATE =Price= extrR 1.40
(GOLD): Futures -NetSht Combi'd w/Opts. CmS/L Net.LgF ..Tues Lond.pm ProjLow
.GOLD. ........ ....... ....... ....... ..... ...... ....... ....... ........
75,991 160,039 - 84,048. 94,792 185,349 1.96 +54,111 .. 7.19 $419.25
66,138 177,046 -110,908. 84,726 202,309 2.39 +73,722 .. 7.12 $426.25
54,747 195,088 -140,341. 74,704 221,863 2.97 104,874 .. 7.05 $423.75
49,769 215,343 -165,574. 69,972 248,529 3.55 129,931 .. 6.28 $437.00


SILVER
38,382 80,908. -42,526. 41,696. 86,391. 2.07 +16,877 .. 7.19 $ 6.945
37,284 80,816. -43,532. 40,204. 85,841. 2.13 +22,860 .. 7.12 $ 7.103
35,021 81,531. -46,510. 38,277. 87,085. 2.28 +24,557 .. 7.05 $ 6.890
27,220 95,868. -68,648. 29,691 101,057. 3.40 +46,647 .. 6.28 $ 7.215

That 1.96 Ratio for Gold is mildly Bullish,
while the Silver Ratio at 2.07 remains highly Bullish

@: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=948390
the end is nigh
Yesterday's gold price performance was very pleasing, holding up well as the Euro fell sharply. I suspect renewed terrorism including today's attacks in Egypt will also help support the price (although this will be little consolation to those whose friends and family have been murdered or injured).
Riser
As always very interesting DB,

Could you shed some light on one issue I picked up on ADVFN that goes something like Gold is priced in dollars so if the dollar falls it will drag gold with it. That argument seems to go against gold being a pure commodity which will always find its own level against major currencies, do you think there is anything in it ?.
cgnao
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/s.../2005/0722.html

QUOTE
The dollar has been, for a number of months, in a false rally. A popular delusion on Wall Street has been that the dollar's strength would continue. The thinking being that any nation that could create Google, which makes it easy to search for trivial sites on the net, and EBay, an electronic flea market, was too important not to draw investment dollars. Focus on such trivial business ventures as these are exactly the reason the U.S. has a trade deficit. Google and EBay are not cures for cancer. This thinking though created a seriously over bought condition for the U.S. dollar. China's devaluation of the U.S. dollar is a bell ringing that this situation is about to be reversed.

.....

One of the ramifications of China's move to devalue the dollar over time is extremely negative for U.S. interest rates, and therefore for housing prices. When China was keeping the relationship between renminbi and the dollar fixed, the Bank of China was forced to make massive purchases of U.S. government debt. These purchases were part of the process of sterilizing the massive dollar inflows into the country. Without those purchases the renminbi might have been forced dramatically higher, something the government did not want to happen in the short run.

As a consequence of the devaluation of the U.S. dollar, the Bank of China purchases of U.S. government debt will be smaller. Rationale for making those purchases being partially muted by the devaluation of the dollar. The same will be true of other nations. One of the little bells that rang this morning was for the beginning of the end of foreign central bank financing of the U.S. deficits. Less demand for U.S. debt means higher interest rates. Of course the Federal Reserve will fight the trend, but global markets are bigger than any central bank staffed by mere mortals. U.S. interest rates are headed far higher than any expect. Housing prices will take a far bigger dip than any believe. The U.S. Great Recession will start in 2006. 4 yuan to the dollar and a $3 Euro are more likely than many can fathom!

While contemplating the many ramifications of the devaluation of the U.S. dollar by the People's Bank of China, a review of the Gold market would be timely. As the dollar price of Gold rises when the value of the dollar falls, Gold, and Silver, should be added to your portfolios. On a strategic basis as shown in the earlier graph, the massive level of over optimism on the dollar is providing Gold prices that should not be ignored. In the last graph are portrayed strategic buying points created by vacillations in optimism over the dollar. Recent buy signals suggest that Gold is attractively priced for dollar denominated investors and those in countries, like Mexico and Canada, that are closely tied to the dollar. The conductor blew the whistle this morning for the train departing to $1,300 Gold. Get on board!
Gwailo
QUOTE(malco @ Jul 15 2005, 08:27 PM)
Hi, naive character has just joined this thread. A previous poster wrote:

>>It is quite easy to just pop-in to the local Hang Seng Bank during lunch and line up with all the old ladies to buy a few 1 Oz Gold Eagles (you can't do that at Barclays can you?).<<
And there you have the problem. In Britain, there does not seem to be a ready means of going and buying reliable bullion or coins just like that. I do not particularly like the idea of sending off several thousand quid into hyperspace in the hope my posty will turn up with a package of chinking coins some time later.

I am based in Edinburgh. What's the best way for me to buy gold coins/small bars? You should understand I am not by nature a player of markets, and my interest in gold is not in relation to making money, I just want to protect what I have. I just don't trust the financial system any more. Maybe I am paranoid - but I don't think so. I've never before felt such a sense of factors combining in a disastrous manner as at the moment. It should never have been allowed to happen.

In addition, I must admit to kind of liking the idea of owning some gold, but that is by the by.

Would I have to travel to London to be able to buy gold "over the counter"?

Any help and advice you can give is.. pure gold!

Many thanks.
*


I'm the guy in Hong Kong who 'pops into the local Hang Seng Bank'.

Buying & selling Gold in Asia is so easy, it must be the culture out here because they have made it so easy.

It looks like the only way you can buy Gold in the UK is over the counter, (London or even in Dublin apparently). This is not ideal, it will cost you a small fortune just for the train fare to London for starters!

Having said that, if your ultimate goal is capital preservation.......just do it!

Cheers.
Gwailo
QUOTE(Gwailo @ Jul 29 2005, 01:30 AM)
I'm the guy in Hong Kong who 'pops into the local Hang Seng Bank'.

Buying & selling Gold in Asia is so easy, it must be the culture out here because they have made it so easy.

It looks like the only way you can buy Gold in the UK is over the counter, (London or even in Dublin apparently).  This is not ideal, it will cost you a small fortune just for the train fare to London for starters!

Having said that, if your ultimate goal is capital preservation.......just do it!

Cheers.
*


Sorry, just testing my new Avtar.
Kam
Maloc,

I bought mine from Baird & Co, easy just phone and check price, turn up. bingo.

They have a office in Glasgow, might be easy for you

I bought for same reasons, partly as insurance against Collapse and investment (I think gold is pretty cheap at momment, cheaper few years ago tho Grrrrrrr.... wish I'd been more interested in it then)
cgnao
Commentary from James Turk, gold expert and founder of Goldmoney:

QUOTE
Gold Breaks Out Against the British Pound

Gold closed Friday at £243.95 per ounce (£7.84 per goldgram). That’s the highest weekly close since September 13, 1996. While this new 9-year high is important, it is also significant that gold is breaking out above a 25-year downtrend line, as we can see in the following chart.



The overall picture presented by the above chart is bullish. Here’s how I see it:

* Gold has been in a long-term consolidation pattern against the British pound since its big advance in the 1960’s and 70’s. Note the red lines marking a ‘pennant’ formation on the above chart.
* From approximately 1996 to 2001 gold formed a solid base, marked by the rounded accumulation pattern on the above chart.
* For the past six years gold has been in a steady uptrend, climbing relentlessly in a clearly defined rising trend channel.
* Given the break of the downtrend line and the new 9-year high, gold’s appreciation against the British pound will now accelerate.

All of the above observations are very bullish for gold. Someone should show this chart to Gordon Brown, the British Chancellor of the Exchequer who will be remembered for his appallingly bad decision to sell one-half of Britain’s gold reserve at the bottom of the market.

As gold continues to climb from here, his decision will look even worse, which no doubt will adversely Brown’s political fortunes. His ambitions to succeed Tony Blair as leader of the Labour Party are well known. But why choose a political leader whose bad decision has already cost British taxpayers hundreds of millions of pounds?

But it is not only the British who should take note of the above chart. The strength demonstrated by the milestones noted above is another sign to everyone that gold is in the early stages of a major bull market that will take it higher against all national currencies, and not just the British pound.
urban_hymn
Nice chart cqnao (cgnao?) the underscore makes me unsure!

You're doing a great one man job raising the awareness of gold as an investment smile.gif

(I declare an interest in Merrill Lynch Gold and General)
cgnao
Gold at 1-month high, aimed at $440-$445 -Reuters
Aug 1, 2005

NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Gold futures hit a fresh one-month high on Monday amid a weaker dollar and reports of the possibility of strikes in South Africa's gold mines.

Other precious metals also rose, led by platinum, which was at a six-month high for futures.

At the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, benchmark December gold advanced $1.70 to $437.50 an ounce at 9:45 a.m. EDT. The range ran from $434.70 to $438.30, which was the highest since July 1.

Traders and analysts said gold futures were now aiming at the top of a trading range at $440-$445, with good support seen below $430 an ounce.
TW11
From this link:

http://www.minesite.com/storyFull.php?storySeq=2908


"Since the beginning of the Dollar Standard era, every time an ounce of gold could buy less than 10 barrels of oil, an investor would do well to buy gold. Today, an ounce of gold buys only seven barrels of oil. The message from the markets is clear: Buy gold.

Nothing needs to be added to this little nugget, but investors would be unwise to overlook it."


Maybe someone has the full FT article?
DrBubb
Gold-in-Sterling ... wacaynay[df][pd78,2!b11!f][iut!Ue12,26,9!Lh14,3]&pref=G]update


Has broken out now, tested the top of old range, and is now ready to Fly!
DrBubb
Gold strike to start on Monday

Fri, 05 Aug 2005
About 80 000 gold miners would begin striking on Monday after unions received an "overwhelming mandate" from their members.

"The strike will commence at 11.59pm on Monday, after the trade union served a 48-hour strike notice on the Chamber of Mines this afternoon," trade union Solidarity said on Thursday. While the Chamber of Mines was offering workers an increase of between 4.5 to five percent, the National Union of Metalworkers (NUM) and Solidarity were demanding 12 percent.

The strike would be the first in the gold mining sector since 1987.

Solidarity said the average increase in a mineworker's cost of living currently comes to 5.7 percent. "An offer of 4.5 percent therefore constitutes a wage reduction and not a wage increase," Solidarity's spokesperson Reint Dykema said.

...MORE: http://business.iafrica.com/news/469692.htm
Nijo
QUOTE(DrBubb @ Aug 6 2005, 11:02 AM)
Gold strike to start on Monday

Fri, 05 Aug 2005
About 80 000 gold miners would begin striking on Monday after unions received an "overwhelming mandate" from their members.


I'm curious as to what this will do to the prices. Gold will go up due to supply problems? But ML G&G and other stocks would decline due to revenue uncertainties?
cgnao
Gold mining shares flying today

HUI 208.06 +4.22
XAU 95.53 +1.34

Gold itself $437.20, £243.63, Euro 353.32

Oil now $64.75 and no signs of stopping.

I would not be surprised to see gold over $500 by the end of the year.
surfgatinho
Did gold just go up loads today or do I just not understand the red line on the graph heading up from $437 to $447 today?!

Bought another £500 on Wednesday biggrin.gif
DrBubb
From the Advfn Gold thread...



energyi - 15 Aug'05 - 07:29 - 9489 of 9489 edit


EXTREME READINGS Warning!
3.39 Ratio Should be Bearish for Gold.

As has been pointed out already here,
THE COT REPORT is throwing off some extreme readings. Commercials are at/near their highest short levels I have seen. Friday's report, which is cut as of close of business Tuesday, showed a ratio of Comm'l Shorts-to-Longs of 3.39, which is the second most extreme in my database. The Comm'ls usually get it right on the turns, and build up big shorts as the market is about to peak.

The most extreme reading was 3.55 on 28.June with gold peaking at $437. Gold subsequently fell by $18 to $419 within three weeks.

Keep in mind that these figures are as of Tuesday close, when Gold was $433.30, and gold subsequently rose to a Friday PM quote of $447.25, and so the figure if taken on Friday would likely have been more extreme. This suggests that next Tuesday ratio may be even more extreme than end-June, signalling a possible top. So do be Careful! Silver, which is neutral to moderately bullish looks a better bet here.

To be fair and balanced: There are some bullish factors. Gold shares have broken out of the lower trading range and showed good volume, suggesting they will move higher. And we are now in a period which is normally bullish for gold and gold shares (up until the first week in October.)

THE BULLS on Gold can hope for a statistically rare event. Gold buying could be strong enough to cause a breakout to new highs, above $454.20 on 2.Dec.2004, and that might trigger short-covering on the part of the Commercials. But this is unlikely. Behind the Commercials will be some big mining companies, who are selling gold to hedge future production, and they have no been to short-cover since they are long Gold in the ground.

So next weeks figure may be important, and it is time to be cautious about gold, and not get carried away.

- - -

LINK: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=948390
Riser
It looks like they are saying you may get a better price to buy gold in the next couple of months, although exchange rates may put a different spin on that for UK investors

Gold - Not a Short-Term Buy Based on COT



QUOTE
This Fridays COT numbers confirmed the anticipated deterioration in Gold's COT structure, after the past weeks strong rally. Short term gold does not look like an attractive buy, even though we could get through the resistance in the $455 area with this move.

Looking at the most recent COT chart for gold I feel a liquidation of some more speculative gold positions next week might be prudent. If past performance is any indication of the future we will probably see a correction of $20-35 in the POG by the end of September. Gold has still rallied from $438 to $445 after Tuesdays COT data, so it's safe to assume that commercial shorts stand at even higher levels today than the graph indicates. Additionally gold is overbought short term (RSI, blue circle). In the past year similar market structures have lead to quite sharp and fast corrections (oval red areas). I'm not saying this will happen in the immediate future but stops at the power up-trend lines for more speculative holdings might not be a bad idea.
urban_hymn
QUOTE(DrBubb @ Aug 5 2005, 12:35 PM)
Has broken out now, tested the top of old range, and is now ready to Fly!

*



QUOTE(DrBubb @ Aug 15 2005, 08:42 AM)
So next weeks figure may be important, and it is time to be cautious about gold, and not get carried away.

*


We're up one minute down the next - speculating is such a white knuckle ride. I just can't see Joe Public getting into gold or oil stocks in any big way, like the tech. share boom/bust of a few years ago.
Riser
Dr Bubb,

Am I right in thinking last week you commented on evidence that Hong Kong were buying hard towards the end of the days trading, could this have happened again?

Look at the Spike towards the end in Hong Kong and then London pulling the price down will be interesting to see what happens in te next few days.

Lurker at the pleasuredome
QUOTE(urban_hymn @ Aug 15 2005, 08:42 AM)
We're up one minute down the next - speculating is such a white knuckle ride.  I just can't see Joe Public getting into gold or oil stocks in any big way, like the tech. share boom/bust of a few years ago.
*


There is only one message the public listens to, believes, rationalises and responds to and that is the price trending up over time. The gold price itself will send the message and the public will buy into it. No amount of economic theory will do it. The lure of the next big thing will bring the public in right on time.
urban_hymn
QUOTE(Lurker at the pleasuredome @ Aug 15 2005, 07:45 PM)
The lure of the next big thing will bring the public in right on time.

*


I hope you're right smile.gif I bought some Merrill Lynch Gold and General at the end of April this year. They're up around 14% when I checked today. They're volatile though!
me2
QUOTE(urban_hymn @ Aug 15 2005, 07:45 PM)
I hope you're right  smile.gif  I bought some Merrill Lynch Gold and General at the end of April this year.  They're up around 14% when I checked today.  They're volatile though!
*


Sometimes I see my gold exactly the other way around. My gold has a steady value and the paper money "value" is zooming up and down.

My gold holdings are fixed, my wealth is fixed, the crazy world is whirling all about me. It's quite Zen. Calms me down. smile.gif
DRS
QUOTE(urban_hymn @ Aug 15 2005, 06:45 PM)
I hope you're right  smile.gif  I bought some Merrill Lynch Gold and General at the end of April this year.  They're up around 14% when I checked today.  They're volatile though!
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Urban, is this sort of product available without an IFA?
DrBubb
Riser,
Interesting chart, but it looks to me that nearly all the action was in NY trading.

= = =

I have come across this interesting site, for advanced traders:

FRACTAL TRADING... from Henry Wernicki

Here's an amazing ('tho lowkey interview) and some great charts.
The one most relevant here, is the XAU chart:

This looks like the XAU may be set for a HUGE breakout. If true then this
action would blow away those Bearish COT figures

His charts.....: http://www.elliottfractals.com/marketview_interview.html
The Interview: http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archive...ki/wernicki.asx
Riser
QUOTE
Riser,
Interesting chart, but it looks to me that nearly all the action was in NY trading.

= = =


I think the chart is dynamic so yesterdays action has been updated, the fractal chart is interesting. I'm looking at opening a finspreads account are they OK or could you suggest better.

Gold past couple of days

Looks like the gold short traders may get caught out this time or do you think $Gold will fall back befor the next rally.

Rgds
Nijo
QUOTE(DRS @ Aug 16 2005, 08:10 PM)
Urban, is this sort of product available without an IFA?
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Yes, I have this fund (ML G&G) but no IFA. In my experience IFA's have been fairly useless.

Normal price is 5% initial fee then 1.5% annually. Buy it from a fund supermarket to eliminate much of that (and any middle-men).

Search for "fund supermarket uk". I use Hargreaves Lansdown, but I don't have experience of any others so that's no recommendation.
DRS
QUOTE(Nijo @ Aug 17 2005, 09:34 AM)
Yes, I have this fund (ML G&G) but no IFA. In my experience IFA's have been fairly useless.

Normal price is 5% initial fee then 1.5% annually. Buy it from a fund supermarket to eliminate much of that (and any middle-men).

Search for "fund supermarket uk". I use Hargreaves Lansdown, but I don't have experience of any others so that's no recommendation.
*


Many thanks smile.gif
urban_hymn
QUOTE(DRS @ Aug 16 2005, 10:10 PM)
Urban, is this sort of product available without an IFA?

*


I use the Fidelity Fund Supermarket online. The site is not the easiest to navigate despite the fact they must have the budget to use the best web designers around!

Fidelity give lots of historic data, portfolio information and charting tools etc.

Gold and General has outperformed all my own stockpicks but I'm well aware that many people are deeply suspicious of gold.

I'm very diversified these days since I lost a packet on tech. shares. It will take a meteorite to take out all my portfolio now! unsure.gif
Nijo
Yes, I refer to the Fidelity website as well, although overall I prefer BestInvest for information. Since you can get the information pretty much anywhere though you're best off just looking for (1st) the biggest discounts and (2nd) the best customer interface.
Lurker at the pleasuredome
An important question is "How do people feel about gold?"

With housing headed down and likely the debt based economy with it when will people head for the golden exit. Its inflate or die for all the bubble countries. When will the penny (or sovereign) drop?
DrBubb
Interesting chart:


From the "Blue Moon Scenario":
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=14280
Riser
DB I am long on gold and no expert on charting but the chart in your revious post appears to ignore what happened between 1973 and 1996. Iagree Gold is about to break one way or the other I just hope it is UP.

I have moved this post from the main discussion forum as it probably fits better here. This could be just a storm in a tea cup as the US treasury confirms its current policy but do the US administration see a declared emergency ahead and want to try and dampen down a gold price spike.

There have been suspicions for some time that the US government has been trying to keep the gold price down artificially, perhaps they feel they are now losing control and will use fear of confiscation to keep people using their helicopter money.

Treasury Department Claims Power to Seize Gold Silver--and Everything Else, GATA Says Monday August 22, 8:45 am ET

QUOTE
MANCHESTER, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 22, 2005--The U.S. Government has the authority to prohibit the private possession of gold and silver coin and bullion by U.S. citizens during wartime, and, during wartime and declared emergencies, to freeze their ownership of shares of mining companies, the Treasury Department has told the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee.

But gold and silver owners aren't alone in such jeopardy. For the U.S. Government claims the authority in declared emergencies to seize or freeze just about everything else that might be considered a financial instrument.

The Treasury Department's assertions came in a letter to GATA dated August 12 and written by Sean M. Thornton, chief counsel for the department's Office of Foreign Assets Control, who replied to questions GATA posed to the department in January. It took GATA six months and some prodding to get answers from the Treasury, but the Treasury's reply, when it came, was remarkably comprehensive and candid

The government's authority to interfere with the ownership of gold, silver, and mining shares arises, Thornton wrote, from the Trading With the Enemy Act, which became law in 1917 during World War I and applies during declared wars, and from 1977's International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which can be applied without declared wars.

While the Trading With the Enemy Act authorizes the government to interfere with the ownership of gold and silver particularly, it also applies to all forms of currency and all securities. So the Treasury official stressed in his letter to GATA that the act could be applied not just to shares of gold and silver mining companies but to the shares of all companies in which there is a foreign ownership interest......................

And ordinary citizens with no particular interest in gold and silver may want to ask their members of Congress to reconsider these statutes simply for being wildly tyrannical.

GATA's correspondence with the Treasury Department is posted on the Internet here: GATA's Correspondence


For further discussion see:Kitco Discussion

EDIT:

DB Any comment on the $Gold graph I have plotted apart from it is rough, no fancy bits here cool.gif If the Blue Moon scenario comes true and the COT Shorts are wrong we could be on the way to $500. I wonder if there is anything behind the concern over credit and derivative paractices that drove the DOW down 85 today?

Click to view attachment Dollar Gold
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