Crazy88s
Oct 14 2004, 10:56 PM
What final instruments are available to enable one to effecitly bet on a house price crash. I have heard the term deratives and gearing and I think I understand the principles and how you can limit any potential loss position.
But if I wanted to actually engage in this activitie would would I do?
Can anyone recommened further reading or actual products?
Such is my 'feeling' that we have been here before I am willing to bet on a falling market.
Thanks for reading this.
zzg113
Oct 14 2004, 11:07 PM
The most common way of betting on a house price crash is via spreadbetting with IG Index. The make a market on house prices for the various regions of the UK (Greater London, Scotland, Wales, various counties etc) and have contracts for September, March, etc well into next year. Go to:
http://www.igindex.co.uk/content/so_house_price_betting.htmlOne word of warning however: the world and his wife are currently betting on a house price crash, so there's a good chance that the market is already oversold and they are pricing in a larger fall than will happen, in which case you will get your ars* handed to you. Don't say I didn't warn you! If you want more detailed information on how to trade them ask DrBubb, he's a pro at this kind of thing.
Bubble Pricker
Oct 18 2004, 01:37 PM
I agree with zz, the IG Index is oversold. Don't touch it. In addition, the underlying is the Halifax HPI, which is a vested interest index, and therefore not reliable.
I would go short on housebuilders, mortgage lenders exposed to BTL (B&B, Northern Rock), and non-essentials retailers (e.g. Next). Long on oil, tobacco, food, beverages and pawnbrokers. (people will always eat, drink, smoke and drive and they will sell their valuables if they no longer can afford to do these things)