Everyone has gone silent on the Gold issue recently... I saw one thread started recently that mentioned the "D" word... which I assume made a few people think the Gold argument wasn't as watertight as it was once touted to be...

Have people's position on Gold changed recently? Will the HPC here or in America with -15%/Q ish falls cause deflation that will dwarf any commodity inflation??

I saw another thread with project £/$ exchange at 1.68 by Q1 2006. So does a weakening of the £ mean that Gold will be the right place to hold money by default ??

I'd really like some serious input from Dr. B, Cynago and the like if possible...

It does seem to go quiet when the predictions turn out to be unhelpful. I'm sure someone will draw you a lovely graph very soon....

I would strongly suggest to put approximately 10%-20% of one's savings in gold as a hedge against inflation.

Even after the recent price rises, gold is still very cheap compared to oil and other commodities. Historically, one ounce of gold has bought on average 17 barrels of oil. Today one ounce of gold still buys less than 8 barrels of oil. Before the recent gold run up, it touched a record low of approx 6 barrels/ounce.

I would sell any stocks, bonds and real estate as these are dangerously overvalued and will without doubt mean revert in a very painful correction, which seems to have started already.

I also recommend to differentiate some of your cash to Euro and CHF to hedge against GBP decline, which seems likely.

Not an opinion shared by Standard Life Investments.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../ixcitytop.html

The article has the title
Bull Market in Shares is Back

Of course they are bullish. They will be unable to meet their liabilities if the stock market doesn't go up.

You might be interested to know that Moodys are rating the outlook for Standard Life Bank as negative (NEG), and their financial strength as D+ which is quite bad.

See http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...pe=post&id=1636

They are not just being bullish,they are putting their money where their mouth is.The article describes funds making "a tactical switch" into equities.Why would they do this if shares are overvalued?



I thought the increase in the price of oil was due to increased demand.Why should it be linked to the price of gold?

Cgnao,
Standard Life Investments are not the same entity as Standard Life Bank am sorry to say, as an indicator Standard Life's With Profit strength is Excellent.

Standard life have been extremely wrong in the past.

If they say buys shares i'd sell.

Silent?

Maybe. too busy trading these shares, and making big money to comment much here

You must be having a bubble bath!!


The amount of time you spent writing and drawing 'data' on here I'm suprised you have time to make a living

If like you I were making 'big money' I would be making plans for retirement to a Carribean island to be pampered by girls with fit 'booties'. Instead you draw endless graphs and write 500 word comments here I suspect you are not 'making big money' .

All the people I know who make 'big/proper' money don't have time to post endless nonsense on websites about 'blue moons' and Fiobanacci or whatever blah

[quote name='cgnao' date='Oct 10 2005, 07:37 PM' post='210253']
I would strongly suggest to put approximately 10%-20% of one's savings in gold as a hedge against inflation.



I would sell any stocks, bonds and real estate as these are dangerously overvalued and will without doubt mean revert in a very painful correction, which seems to have started already.

Are you people mad to even ask for this idiots advice??


He says to sell all your stock, bonds and real estate. Then what? Buy gold and shove it up your rectum and await armaggedon? It would be interesting to know how much money both this muppet and Dr Bubbs have actually made over the last few years and then we can judge how to view their rantings

I wouldn't touch these guys with a barge pole

Maybe all HPC members should be forced to reveal their salaries so that we can judge the validity of their arguments.

You go first.

Not surprised Dr B things are moving fast we live in exciting times

Gold Silver, and OXS are doing well, we may see some consolidation before the push to Au $500 but I have never made as much in a couple of months and am happy holding

Thanks

Riser

Ok, you've never made as much but how much is that? Given that gold has risen approx 15% over a year and you guys invest 5-20% of your savings(which don't seem to be much) I'm guessing max a few grand? So whats the biggie? The price of a good suit

The sp of OXS has more to do with the political situation in Uzbekistan than the price of gold.These shares were trading at 90p plus in early 2004 and fell back to 41(ish) when a Ukraine style uprising was dealt with by the Uzbek military.
Don't expect this former Soviet state to play fair with western companies.You could be right about the price of gold and still lose your shirt on Oxus Gold.

I own shares in this company.

Apparently, Oxus has $US100 million worth of political risk insurance which would pay out if the company was expropriated and the mines renationalised.
They started pouring silver yesterday aswell - Kerching

Thanks for the info.There is still a lot of room for the Uzbek's to manipulate the share price.They moved the goalposts on the Jerooy license last year,so I'd expect a few more twists and turns.The Soviets are the most affable people in the world,until they put a collar and tie on.

Well thats odd because krugerrands this time last year were £226. Now they are £285 which is a 26% increase in a year. Bit different from 15%.

And just over 2 years ago (wonder where you were ?) a few examples for you.

Oxus Mining were 17p, now 60p = 352% profit.
Avocet Mining PLC were 35p now 95p = 271% profit
Peter Hambro were 285p now 827p = 289% profit
Monterrico Metals PLC were 77p now 489p = 635% profit


Think you may have missed the boat which is probably why you sound a bit wound up and dont really have a clue about anything.

As mentioned before its no point saying I've made a 1000% profit if that equates to £100( ie price of shirt) So if you don't mind how much in £s does all this profit amount to?

hey DRS, can I share with you my thoughts?? (probably a good proportion of other members as well)

"F**K OFF, YOU COMPLETE IDIOT"

[quote name='numper' date='Oct 14 2005, 10:42 PM' post='213352']
hey DRS, can I share with you my thoughts?? (probably a good proportion of other members as well)

"F**K OFF, YOU COMPLETE IDIOT"
[/quo You are very welcome to share your thoughts. Its a shame they had to be profanities but thats your choice.

The point is that it would be very handy to know the substance of those that come on here preaching. As I said earlier its all very well to talk of 500% increases but what does this equate to in cold hard cash? If its the amount a factory worker makes in a day then you guys need a reality check. If its not and you are pulling in £10k a deal then I'll shut up. So whats the answer?

Either give the numbers or stop trying to give people advice

Why does that matter ?

If a horse is 10/1 and someone puts down a fiver for it to win and someone else puts down 20K, does it make any difference. If the horse wins then both punters were correct. Lets say an old granny made 300% profit on her savings of 5K in 2 years then happy days, it would take years for the bank to pay that return. Its about making your money work for you no matter how much you have.

You sound very young to be honest and maybe need to go away and think a bit about what your saying.

I seem to remember that DrB. said his best day was a 5 figure sum (US dollars).I assume he means profits realised,rather than profit in one day.

My best is a "five bagger".Invested 5k(sterling) 2002.Worth 25k now.

Quid pro quo,DRS.

I have a better idea, you (DRS) give us a rest from yr annoying posts

and just piss off, and stop telling US (and particularly WELL RESPECTED members like DR BUBB) what to do

At the end of the day, numbers are NOT important, theories are, therefore DRE kindly "piss off"

Being angry and using bad language is not going to help matters.

Try keeping a cooler head numper

Getting back on topic here is an excellent thread on deflation versus inflation on kitco.

(Because of their FUBAR forum software, you have to start at the bottom of the linked page (page 7), and read the posts up, going back through the pages to read it in the right order.)

Worth reading though.

http://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?thre...30&pagenumber=7

We are NOT talking about betting on horses!!

Even so the person who put 20k on won 200k the other guy isn't even worth talking about.

Whether you consider me young depends on how old you are I suppose




Dr Bubbs 'best day' sounds impressive. I'll take my hat off to that.

Muttley, £5k to £25k in 3 years is not to be sneezed at but hardly earth shattering



Are you really that dim?? Theories don't mean anything if they do not produce the goods. So in other words you would rather watch and talk rather than take part. I hope you don't extend this to your sex life aswell

my sovereign suppliers have all put there prices up by 5 pounds in the last week for every sovereign, the price now for a common daye, average grade soveregn is now in the 70 range.

last year i was buying them for 60 each.

on ebay the same thing has happened there all getting 5 pounds more than they did a month ago, and the amount for sale has also reduced significantly as more are preferring to hold onto them.

No-one really answered my question. There seems to be a reluctance to call inflation (stagflation or hyperinflation) or deflation for the coming years.

Seems to me that there's various forms of significant inflation around - we've lived with the recent bout of HPI for the last 5 years... the argument is more complex than this... it's really whether deflation in one asset class such as property can and will be counteracted with inflation in, say commodities.

There's an equally strong argument that the whole western economy has put all its eggs in one basket with property, and when the bubble bursts, nothing is going to prop it up.

Is it really a foregone conclusion that precious metals will win regardless of this outcome ?

Debtfree, you never answered the question. How much has all this mega growth made you?

Mind your own business. Not the sort of question a gentleman asks.... yes I know you aren't a gentleman. Mind your own business. What's the most you ever made from an investment, wise guy?

I may not be a gentleman and you are no lady. Or maybe you are


Isn't this a forum about investments? In which case whats the problem with enquiring as to the success of peoples investments especially those that give advice to others. Or would a dose of reality be to much for you to take?

If you are genuinely interested I am more than happy to tell you the return on my best and worst investments in £s not stupid %

ps we are not in a mafia movie so need to call me a wise guy

Albanian gang targets boastful web forum users discussing their financial worth with traceable IP addresses. (Clickable late 2006.)

[Edited for instant sobriety.]

I think I hear a little foot stamping....

The best response to attention seekers like DRS is to simply ignore them.

Why devalue this financial forum, which is a valuable resource for sophisticated investors, by responding to his posts. Dr Bubb ignores him and I suggest the rest of us do the same.

I ve only just started in investing - yes bought 1 kruggerand for £250, 2 months on now I COULD sell this on ebay or back to a bullion dealer and make £20-30 easily. Thats not a bad return for doing next to nothing. If I had more money then I could do this 10x and make £200-300; but I am not a hardcore investor!

There is also another guy on here whos made "on paper" 2-3K in investing in Myril and Lynch fund.

Ok people would have been better to go into BTL property a few years ago - but certainly not now unless you can buy significantly BMV . I dont see any other areas people should invest in (apart from ISA) now especially when economy growth looks like slowing down in the short term.

"Is it really a foregone conclusion that precious metals will win regardless of this outcome "
It would seem so - goverments cant keep printing money to chase limiting resources. China is growing and will eat up the rest of the fossil fuels. I remember when Michael Palin said on his 80 day round the world trip "what happens when they swap all their bicycles for Mazdas" - well its going to be a struggle and this change is happening now.

Until we find cheap renewable energy and it is implented to the masses, prices can only go up for basic living can only go up.

Thats all I am saying for now.

Also another interesting link about the gold bull run here: CLICK ME

I'm not attention seeking or stamping my feet, honest. Just asking for some hard facts from people who like to talk alot and then go quiet when asked to show the goods. I don't think thats being unreasonable



Have you ordered your yacht then?

That's because it's entirely dependent on the decisions of a few bankers setting interest rates... when you have individuals setting rates rather than markets, no-one can predict what they'll do with any accuracy, which is yet another reason why central banks are such a bad idea.

Look I think some people are missing the point here Investment in general is about buying something that has a value. anything that you buy has a Risk associated with it. if you buy a company "AVM/OXS/KAZ/TSG/CER" there are certain political and systematic risks inherent in that investment. even in delta neutral strategies there is risk. risk is everywhere, in your pocket (you might spend it ) in the bank (there might be a bank run) (or some angry scottish man might inflate it away by printing more of it) risk risk risk. the point is in any investment it is highly important to esimate both the risk of your investment and the return which you are likly to earn on it. diversification of risk is an important technique in efficent portfolio construction. you also must take into account factors such as the gearing of your investment. the reason we are all here is because we all know in our heart of hearts that 5x Gross personal product is frankly a ridiculous amount of gearing to be exposing ourselves too. beleive me Iknow about gearing, unfortunetly it was a costly lesson that caused me to come out of the bad side of a highly geared investment in over 3million Yen back in april. and it was a combination of Alan Greenspan and excess gearing that caused me to sell another 1 million or so Yen back the day before the CNY revaluation. the lesson in all this (that you are probably unlikly to grasp unless it costs YOU a serious amount of capital) is:

gearing - is a weapon of mass desruction.
risk - must be managed at all times in whatever invesment.
no matter how confident you are ALWAYS have a plan b.

Is gold a good investment ? depends I bought like nearly a half a million quids worth of it at one point but then I had too sell it all back. too much gearing you see. . how much you buying for what period when ?why? when you going to get out ?

Risk adjusted return is what you need.
dis not the man who takes a 4.5% return on his money for he sleeps at night sound in the knowledge that only Merv can f*%k him over, oh yeah and the angary scottish dude. better put something from the STR into index linked Bonds eh .

my own prediction would be that the huge growth in the money supply must come to an end with a credit crunch. in which case cash will do quite well the problem comes. gold is a safe haven but at current prices I would have to favor the swiss franc (backed by gold) as being a decent investment. how about Roche shares? tamiflu anyone

seriously though guys JPY looks cheap at 118 to the dollar. I'm sorry to say however I'm not buying any more, im sticking to my safe havens (ungeared investment in equities as it happens). most ofthe FTSE is international anyway so its not really the main story on the UK plc front. hedge funds anyone ?

anyway time to sell the greenbacks against an surplus weighted dollar block basket (come Jan when the fed stop tightening ) yeeee haaa. who has a million $'s to lend me. Ill give em all back ( with ya sh#ty 4.5% yeild dudes) just give me some CNY for them greenbacks or better still do what the UKplc is doing and buy me some Chinese banks

I don't know if its been posted before, apologies if so:

http://www.moneyweek.com/article/1415/inve...st-in-gold.html

I found it interesting anyway.

Resolved once and for all

Inflation vs Deflation

further proof

Paul Volcker vs Ben Bernanke

I guess given the metal's current performance, the question is do I stay out hoping there's a correction or do I just plough in before an even bigger surge in prices ?

I think Gold has been done to death - however the forum is particularly quiet on the subject of late. I feel as though that's the veteran's of HPC that have always recommended its purchase saying a lot by not saying too much - i.e. don't buy at the moment as it appears over bought.

If I buy some now I'm serious exposed to a price drop... we're coming out of the cold snap and deman for heating fuels should drop for 6 months... but combine that with the sabre rattling going on at the moment... I have no clue which direction things will go in.

Comments welcome. I'm particularly risk adverse and don't think I would be happy with even a 10% drop from the current price over the coming months.

AF

Join the crowd. I suspect folk are staying quiet because there is not much more to be said. The Peak Oil issue is steadily developing, the US economy is steadily ailing and likewise in the UK. The basic risk is that the scale of debt is too great to pay off from the foreseeable wealth. That spells financial disruption and that spells G-O-L-D plus some silver too. These issues are set and long term and I don't think anything is going to alter the outcome of what is set to happen. It's just that most folk have not woken up to how the future is hemmed in by unpalatable financial and physical realities. 99% of the people out there are still living in the old world of everlasting cheap energy and cheap Chinese goods, endless retail therapy and hoping one day to pay off the credit card thousands. They don't understand we are drifting into a completely different world. In the new world, self-discipline, self-reliance and independent thinking will be important. Staying with the crowd will not guarantee safety (actually, it almost guarantees disaster).

I am considering buying some more gold and silver, but I need to shift my lazy @rse into gear.

You can't have your cake and eat it Avid. Gold has provided stupendous gains and will continue to do so but the price you pay is volatility. Logging on and finding you investment has dropped/risen a few grand in a day is the lot of a gold investor these days. You need the balls to see past the volatility and realise it's a long term bull market for Gold.

I missed the trebling of house prices which was unlucky. I'm certainly not going to miss $1000 Gold - that would be careless!!!

Thought I'd post in this thread as it appears to still have some life in it.

Was on the train today out of London, "up north" via Birmingham. Granny, mum and young son sat at the 4-seater table infront of me.

You could see (hear) the parent and grandparent trying to impart wisdom on the child... They had given him a whole pound coin to save in a little pot.

Talking aloud they mentioned "gold coins" in his colouring book and how he'd have to use his pound to buy the toy spaceship they'd bought him sooner rather than later because the price would go up - and that's called inflation !!!

You could easily detect what was on both of their minds. Does EVERYONE know about Gold now and are we in danger of participating in the late stages of a speculative bubble?

I just thought this was too much of a coincidence... or am I just being paranoid ?

that depends on your reason for investment.

maybe, just maybe...?? its because the US is bankrupt, which means the dollar (which is the WORLDS RESERVE currency....is BANKRUPT )

which means nobody wants dollars anymore... read LOADS more here

http://www.swissamerica.com/article.php?=S...0411150247f.txt

so... if the dollar is worlds reserve currency... then what is the worlds MAIN currency....? um.. um.