(from Advfn's "Really Useful" Gold thread):

The "Blue Moon" Scenario:
SLAMMA-WHAM-BAM in Stocks versus Gold coming?
======================

ARE STOCKS about to Crash, as Gold breaks out?

Here's a Long Term chart, showing the Dow Jones Average-to-Gold Ratio


and here's a Close-up Daily Chart: S&P 500-to-Gold Ratio:


Based upon the short and long term charts, that trend line at about 2.67 Ratio
looks important. What would it take to get it through that level??

S&P500 closed yesterday at: 1,222.

If we divide that figure by 2.67, we get: $457 per Ounce,
which would represent a breakout to a new Two Decade high for gold.

The elements of a Big Move in Gold against Stock indices are already there:

+ Rising Oil prices to record levels,
+ Shift in Chineses linkage of their currency from the Dollar to a basket,
+ Huge holdings of US dollar assets overseas, by Central banks who are appearing reluctant to take more, and may be tempted to buy gold,
+ A thin-trading summer stock market, ignoring bad news on the Oil front, which is about to go into September, which is seasonally a bad time for stocks,
+ COT reports showing Commercials with near-record short positions. Normally this is Bearish for gold. But "once in a blue moon", they get it wrong (as they did in oil), and wind up covering their shorts at high prices,

ARE YOU READY for the Blue Moon scenario?

Calls on Silver, on Gold stocks, and on investments in cheap Junior miners and explorers may be a way to play this. Puts on stock indices too.

@: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=948390

The decrease in volatility looks quite interesting. Wonder why that could be...
About 2.67 - is that where the trend of minumums crosses the present?

Good point.

Unusual calm, often preceeds fear

(Latest Advfn posting):

My "Blue Moon Scenario" is still very possible/ but not guaranteed

This chart, showing Gold-in-Euros


Looks encouraging, and is set for a possible BIG CLIMB.
In observing many of these charts over the years, the Biggest Climbs typically
come when the 55d.MA runs allong upwards with the Upper Bollinger Band formed
by the 377d.MA. I am not sure why this works, but I hyave seen it work so many
times that I am attracted to these charts.

Also note, there has been a pullback (a "pause" allowing the blue and red lines
to catch up with each other), also evident in the RSI pulling back to 50. In my way
of thinking, Gold-in-Euros is now ready for a big move up.

No gurantees on any of thsi of course, but within a few days or weeks we should
know if the Bulls or the doomsayers have won the struggle.

(From the Advfn Gold thread):

As we continue to watch and wait...
Gold is coming into its seasonal upswing period, handicapped by excessive
Commercial Longs,

It is worth looking at the Trade-weighted Dollar


That area where it peaked, just above DX-90, looks as if it had some historical significance. It acted as support, back in late 1998. We may have seen the end of the Dollar rally back near the end of July, when alot of markets turned. One interesting aspect brought out by this chart is the rising Volume and Open Interest- alot of the world is looking for ways to be short the Dollar. The trade-weighted DX, is becoming alot more popular than it used to be. Is it surprising that positions in Gold are rising simultaneously?

If we take look at the Daily chart we can see more clearly that peak just over DX-90:
. update
In my simplistic Elliot wave analysis, we should see an A-B-C rally up from the important low near DX-80. The "C" wave looks as if it is not complete, and needs a complete wave 5 to finish it off. I think this is why alot of Wave analysts are calling for "one more rally" in the dollar. Meantime, the Dollar does not hear them. It has established a clear down channel. And if it can break support at "x1" and "x2" that would confirm that the Dollar rally is done, despite the lack of a classic-looking 5th wave.

Its London prices that matter to me, I just hope the commercial shorts are wrong and get screwed, its about time people stopped letting them use their shorts to contol sentiment in the market.

Bloomberg

Thanks to hurricane Katrina, 1/3 of US Gulf oil production has been shutdown.

Result: the US will be importing MORE foreign oil, at a higher price,
and the Trade deficit for August is likely to get worse.

MIGHT help Gold and Silver too

Friday Close- before Katrina's Action to $70+

Oil-to-Gold Ratio

Just back from lunch...

Looks like the BLUE MOON Scenario to me!

Gold up $8, brealing out over $441

I bought into gold last night on the australian market. When I checked today it was up 10 dollars on the full UK day. What do you think gold will get to by Christmas?

So thats a gross 1.8% increase. Excellent!

how did you buy?
would like make a small punt myself

BLUE MOON ANYONE?

Well done Dr B.