QUOTE(BoredTrainBuilder @ Aug 26 2005, 03:33 PM)
Inertia is keeping me in for now, hoping for a positive outcome of the election. On the other hand perhaps sell and go back in a little later to crystallise the gain for capital gains tax purposes. Tricky but better than sitting on a loss. Still it's not done as well as the ftse over a one year period.
Japan has historical been prone to peaky cycles.
Lex: Japan
Published: August 26 2005 13:24 | Last updated: August 26 2005 13:24
Japan is squeezing deflation out of its system, providing more fuel for bullish investors.
Consumer prices, excluding fresh produce, dipped just 0.2 per cent in the year to July. Stripping out more volatile components, including medical and oil-related goods, the core CPI has been stable for months. That tallies with rising wages, which are increasing faster than in seven years, falling unemployment and more job vacancies. Consequently, consumers are piling into the shops with renewed confidence, sending retail sales up some 3 per cent.
The next step in Japan's recovery now looks tantalisingly close. Sustained price rises are the trigger for the Bank of Japan to end its policy of flooding the banking system with liquidity and to raise interest rates above zero. That returns Japan to an era of normality and sets the stage for the country's notoriously cautious savers to switch their deposits into risk-weighted assets.
Before that happens, however, the core CPI must turn positive and stay there. Later this year, base comparisons for rice and telecoms charges pass out of the equation. That should be enough to lift price changes above zero, assuming that expensive oil continues to push transport and other related costs higher. The narrowing output gap should help sustain inflation; a big reduction in overcapacity and a tight labour market leave less room for absorbing price rises. Risks remain, but the end of deflation looks within sight.
I've a large proportion of my dosh in Japan and Germany (along with a few Oilies) - so fingers crossed that the Axis powers recover!