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Full Version: Tracking The U.s. Trade Deficit
House Price Crash forum > Investment > Investment in general
DrBubb
(I picked this up from a thread on Advfn):

The US has a truly alarming trade deficit. Does it matter?

6-7% of GNP is the usual benchmark for when a currency begins a sharp slide.
The US Deficit is approaching $700Bn against a 12Trillion GNP (5.8%)

.

Mon/ +2004 +2005 Mon-to-Mon Cumu'l Ann'sed : CurAct. Qtrly
Jan. $.... $58.5 Bn ....... $ 58.5 $ 702Bn
Feb. $.... $60.6 Bn + 3.59% $119.1 $ 715Bn
Mar. $.... $53.6rBn -11.55% $172.7 $ 691Bn : $195.1 (113.0%)
Apr. $.... $57.0 Bn + 6.34% $229.7 $ 689Bn
May. $.... $55.3 Bm - 2.98% $285.0 $ 684Bn
Jun. $....
Jul. $....
Aug. $....
Sep. $....
Oct. $....
Nov. $60.3
Dec. $....

Mon/ Imports Exports =Deficit .China. ..Oil..
2004 $...... :annual $665.9Bn Current Account
---- ++GNP++ $11.68T as% 5.7% .4.8%.. ::2003::
Nov. $ 156.4 .$ 97.2 $ 59.8Bn ....... $ 19.6b $41.15 476m
Dec. $ 156.6 $ 100.2 $ 56.4Bn $ 14.3b $ 17.4b $36.63 475m
2005 ....... ....... ........ ....... ....... OPrice Bbls
Jan. $ 159.1 $ 100.8 $ 58.5Bn $ 15.3b $ 16.5b $35.25 468m
Feb. $ 161.3 $ 100.7 $ 60.6Bn $ 13.9b $ 18.2b $36.85 494m
Mar. $ 157.2 $ 102.2 $ 55.0Bn $ 12.9b $ 17.0b $41.14 413m
Apr. $ 163.4 $ 106.4 $ 57.0Bn $ 14.7b $ 19.4b $44.76 433m
May. $ 162.2 $ 106.9 $ 55.3Bn $ 15.8b $ 15.8b $43.08 366m

....
2005 $...... :annual $717. Bn vs.Est. $700Bn
---- ++GNP++ $12.00T as% 6.0% .5.7%.. ::2004::

. . .
.
. . .

US trade deficit hits fresh high

Textile imports from China have soared this year
The US trade deficit has widened to a new high as the world's largest economy consumed record imports of consumer goods and industrial materials.
The US trade gap rose 4.3% to $61bn (£32bn; 47bn euros) in February, data published on Tuesday showed, well above market forecasts of a $59bn shortfall.

The deficit - up from $58.5bn in January - continues to be swollen by America's appetite for imports.

These rose 1.6% to a record $161.5bn while exports rose 0.1% to $100.5bn.

China effect

Textile imports rose sharply after the abolition of global quotas in January, with shipments from China to the US rising 9.8% in February.

The growth - fuelled by the ending of decades-old restrictions on the level of textile trade between individual countries - will increase pressure on the US government to introduce measures to protect domestic manufacturers.

These figures reflect the lack of competitiveness of US products

Although the overall US trade deficit with China fell by 9% in February to $13.9bn, the US government is facing growing calls to rebalance its trading relationship with China.

"You have a situation with China where imports are up by 49.8% from a year ago but at the same time US exports to China barely grew by 1.6%," John Lonski, an economist with Moody's Investors Service, told Agence France Presse (AFP).

"That is not going to sit well with the members of the United States Congress."

Oil prices

The US thirst for imports shows no sign of abating, with a strong economy resulting in record imports of cars, consumer goods and industrial materials in February. Petroleum imports were the second highest on record, fuelled by a fresh rise in US crude oil prices this year to above $55 a barrel.

Economists expect the deficit for 2005 as a whole to top $700bn, significantly higher than 2004's $617bn figure.
DrBubb
Adjusting for changes in Oil Imports and Oil prices,
the Deficit ROSE in May...

Mon/ Imports Exports =Deficit .China. ..Oil.. OPrice bbls Ac@450m adjDef
2004 $...... :annual $665.9Bn Current Account ...... .... &$40.00
---- ++GNP++ $11.68T as% 5.7% .4.8%.. ::2003:: ..... .... =$18.0b
Nov. $ 156.4 .$ 97.2 $ 59.8Bn ....... $ 19.6b $41.15 476m $- 1.6b 58.2Bn
Dec. $ 156.6 $ 100.2 $ 56.4Bn $ 14.3b $ 17.4b $36.63 475m $+ 0.6b 57.0Bn
2005 ....... ....... ........ ....... ....... OPrice Bbls
Jan. $ 159.1 $ 100.8 $ 58.5Bn $ 15.3b $ 16.5b $35.25 468m $+ 1.5b 60.0Bn
Feb. $ 161.3 $ 100.7 $ 60.6Bn $ 13.9b $ 18.2b $36.85 494m $- 0.2b 60.4Bn
Mar. $ 157.2 $ 102.2 $ 55.0Bn $ 12.9b $ 17.0b $41.14 413m $+ 1.0b 56.0Bn
Apr. $ 163.4 $ 106.4 $ 57.0Bn $ 14.7b $ 19.4b $44.76 433m $- 1.4b 56.0Bn
May. $ 162.2 $ 106.9 $ 55.3Bn $ 15.8b $ 15.8b $43.08 366m $+ 2.2b 57.5Bn
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