[jvmills]

More doom and gloom for Spain:

Quote

Spanish property prices need to fall by 23% to bring housing affordability back to its long term average, and return the market to normality, argues a new report out today from property consultants Aguirre Newman.

From: http://www.spanishpr...com/buff/?p=294

[Stonker]

jvmills, on Nov 12 2008, 11:17 AM, said:

More doom and gloom for Spain:



From: http://www.spanishpr...com/buff/?p=294

That's for residential property. Maybe even more for holiday homes

[Icantbelieveitsnotbutter]

Prices overshot the guess of fair values on the way up, reaching "I don't care how much they cost, they only go up and I have to buy now", they will undershoot the guess of fair value on the way down. They might pause and wave at fair values before continuing a journey to "I don't care how cheap they are I don't want one".

[Icantbelieveitsnotbutter]

Prices overshot the guess of fair values on the way up, reaching "I don't care how much they cost, they only go up and I have to buy now", they will undershoot the guess of fair value on the way down. They might pause and wave at fair values before continuing a journey to "I don't care how cheap they are I don't want one".

[Stonker]

Icantbelieveitsnotbutter, on Nov 13 2008, 10:19 AM, said:

Prices overshot the guess of fair values on the way up, reaching "I don't care how much they cost, they only go up and I have to buy now", they will undershoot the guess of fair value on the way down. They might pause and wave at fair values before continuing a journey to "I don't care how cheap they are I don't want one".

I hope so. Just the type of opportunity I'll be looking for

[costalot]

Have you seen the sterling-Euro exchange rate today??? 1.17!

[Stonker]

costalot, on Nov 15 2008, 01:37 PM, said:

Have you seen the sterling-Euro exchange rate today??? 1.17!

Not good for those lookingto buy abroad. Looks like a flat in Torquay may be better value!

[Heading South]

This won't help property prices on the Costas either....

http://www.independe...ts-1028258.html

You have to feel genuinely sorry for these expats.

But I don't expect any help from McBroon. In fact I suspect some within the government to actively relish their plight, partly because they view this as a dissincentive to further haemorrhaging of people and assets from the UK and partly out of sheer malice from those who've chosen to escape from this country and the mess the government have created.

[Fromage Frais]

My parents have a lovely flat in a top notch location Mallorca and have had it for over 5 years if I remember corectly.

At the time my late (bless her) grandmother paid over the odds for it so that we could go on holiday near her.

Cost 250,000 euros and when not there we could rent it out at 800-1400 euros per week when in demand.

Before the recent collapse and after her death we though about getting shot of it and where told it was worth over 700,000 euros which was crazy.

guess what though you can still rent this apartment for the same rent as before!

assuming the unlikely event of getting 0 voids and full rate all the time and we have given that tennant half price as renting all the time

Then 250,000 / 2000 euros pm = 125
Then 700,000 / 2000 euros pm = 350

175/62.5= 2.8

Which tells me that property in this area is 2.8 times overpriced (and more if your realistic about rents)

My old flat in norwich

202,000/ 700pm = 288

The house I am renting in Tunisia

200,000 / 450 = 444

Not correct to compare but the rent tells you the story nearly all the time in my opinion your natural support level is the point where its cheaper to buy than rent the rest is just speculation (your actually getting positive cash flow). Beyound this point your looking at freefall.

[Nautorius]

Any one got any specific info about the costa del sol near Gibraltar. Looking around Sotogrande but prices are just stupid and more expensive than oxfordshire! Who the hell paid those prices? Where did the money come from and how will they pay it back!

Cheers

N.

[forestfire]

Nautorius, beware the Sotogrande estate agents. They are the most slippery bunch of chancers that I have ever met. I have met most of the agents there and did not find an honest one among them. The ones in the port are the worst, but I have heard complaints from everyone that has had to deal with them.
Soto sells itself at a premium but what do you get for that? Poor infrastructure and a high level of crime. When I lived there gangs of robbers were burgling entire streets in a single night, gassing people and using violent means. Good luck getting a phone connected, a regular supply of gas, electricity, and also watch out for subsidence and leaky roofs on your top end villa.
Steer well clear!

[Nautorius]

Nautorius, on Nov 21 2008, 11:09 PM, said:

Any one got any specific info about the costa del sol near Gibraltar. Looking around Sotogrande but prices are just stupid and more expensive than oxfordshire! Who the hell paid those prices? Where did the money come from and how will they pay it back!

Cheers

N.

Thanks for that, good advice and noted!

[Bri2]

I've just visited friends in velez malaga. The amount of empty property allover the costa truly has to be seen to be believed. "Ghost Town" by The Specials sums it all up.

A few months back I heard about some of the property maintenance scams that go on where owners on urbanisations get well and truly tucked up.

Well the "new boy" in town is now private security services. Suddenly all the Town Halls have approved contractors offering courses with instant certification. As regards the price of property i was told that the market is stalling around the fact that a lot of Spanish property speculators have hit the nego equity wire and truly don't know what to do next. With each new "rip off the property owner scheme" that surfaces the property values just melt away.

A lot of people just seem to be renting now as they can easily pick and choose both location and what they pay. A nice 3/4 bedroom flat or townhouse won't cost more than E500 Max. So the prices must be a calculation based on that as previously posted.

[BrianR]

Bri2, on Nov 23 2008, 06:17 PM, said:

I've just visited friends in velez malaga. The amount of empty property allover the costa truly has to be seen to be believed. "Ghost Town" by The Specials sums it all up.

A few months back I heard about some of the property maintenance scams that go on where owners on urbanisations get well and truly tucked up.

Well the "new boy" in town is now private security services. Suddenly all the Town Halls have approved contractors offering courses with instant certification. As regards the price of property i was told that the market is stalling around the fact that a lot of Spanish property speculators have hit the nego equity wire and truly don't know what to do next. With each new "rip off the property owner scheme" that surfaces the property values just melt away.

A lot of people just seem to be renting now as they can easily pick and choose both location and what they pay. A nice 3/4 bedroom flat or townhouse won't cost more than E500 Max. So the prices must be a calculation based on that as previously posted.

After yesterday it looks as though we are all in for a torrid time everywhere!
All the so called emerging markets now look very bad and in times like this the best locations come out best and also the safe ones [ if anywhere value wise is safe]
So what do life style buyers do?
If you are in or approaching your 60's and want to spend full or part time in the sun, or even want a holiday how in the sun then you have to make a pragmatic decision
Life is moving on, waiting a year or so for values to improve, to make your purchase look like a good investment, is a long time
Spain and other popular sun locations still remain the best for life style and with Spain you know that to the major airports flights will still be available: so they have the advantage of easy access
There are parts of Spain which are not overdeveloped....eg Almeria between Aguilas and Mojacar where prices are cheaper than say Costa del Sol

There are some very good buys in good locations available now....will the price be lower in 12 months...who knows but it is always difficult to buy at the bottom of the cycle

So if you want a life style purchase, can afford it and having it now is more important than investment ,then 2009 may not be a bad time to buy

But make sure that you take all sensible precautions

Whilst no one will be able to say you are buying at the bottom, the history of property economics illustrate that the recovery will come in time and buyers in 2009 will I suspect look back and see that they have had lots of enjoyment out of their purchase and it has been a good deal

Before yesterday I tended towards the view that we should start to see some recovery by mid to late 2010, now it looks like 2011 !!
I have bought for part time living and technically I have a paper loss [ but not in sterling!] but in 10 years it will probably look cheap

This post has been edited by BrianR: 25 November 2008 - 12:23 PM

[catara]

BrianR, on Nov 25 2008, 12:21 PM, said:

There are parts of Spain which are not overdeveloped....eg Almeria between Aguilas and Mojacar where prices are cheaper than say Costa del Sol

It cannot be worse than the area between Vera and Mojacar. Overbuilt, eye-sore, traffic jams over the summer, ghost towns over the winter, prices in free fall.

So you should probably say: area between Aguillas and Villaricos, eventhough San Juan says its own bad parts and Aguillas has many illegal buildings.

Anyway, you should add that now in Malaga are 15 Celsius in Almeria-Murcia 6 Celsius.

The best things to do now? Rent in Costa del Sol for at least 5 years, prices won't recover before 2013. Then either buy a dirt cheap apartment in Almeria-Murcia-Costa Blanca or a
much reduced apartment in Costa del Sol-Costa Tropical.