[JoeDavola]

Little Professor, on Nov 11 2008, 02:06 AM, said:

the cesspit of the UK

I think that's maybe a bit unfair on NI - it has good and bad areas, just like any other part of the UK!

[woohoo2]

On the Northern Ireland forum we are complaining to the BBC about last night's programme for the host's promotion of a property VI-infested newspaper - click below to find out more and join in...

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...p;#entry1450525

[woohoo2]

'cesspit of the UK' - indeed, a bit uncalled for.

On the Northern Ireland forum we are sending complaints to the BBC about blatant promotion of one local newspaper by the host. Click here to find out more and join in..

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...p;#entry1450525

[gravity always wins]

Jonathan Davis is the UKs longest running housing bear folks treat him with respect.

After all he was short on UK property whilst the rest of us were filling our boots.

Bless, a UK housing Bear since 2001 you've got to love experts!!!!

No wonder he wants to gamble with your profits and not his..... (he didn't make any!!!!)

[gravity always wins]

doccyboy, on Nov 11 2008, 09:00 AM, said:

He is certainly the only one with guts to lose his anonymity and speak up for house price crash on the media.

I think he is probably doing it to line his pockets at the expense of others.

Thats the way with these Financial "experts" did you buy in and wait for the Dow to hit 15,000 like he told everyone?

The man is a fool and will seriously damage your wealth.

[uptherebels]

gravity always wins, on Nov 11 2008, 09:08 AM, said:

Thats the way with these Financial "experts" did you buy in and wait for the Dow to hit 15,000 like he told everyone?

No I didn't, but it sounds as though you did. I am new here, and from your sig it seems that you don't exactly see eye to eye with FP. Not altogether sure what your problem with him is. Would you rather he did not do this TV stuff about house prices? My only problem with him is that he is too optimistic !

[Belfast Boy]

pcuser, on Nov 11 2008, 01:36 AM, said:

3 How many times of the HP to income should be reasonable? We frequently use 3-4 times. However, it is not the case, at least not always. The reason is: The word “Price” used in the above graph should the “total cost” for “daily living” (just imagine: 99% of your income needs to be used for food). My suggestion is: if majority of people can clear mortgage in 10 to 20 years time under the condition without seriously affecting their living standard, the price would be reasonable.

The house price/income ratio has been discussed here many, many times. Historically a persons income can be roughly divided into 3. With 1/3 being spent on cost of living (food, elec, heating, petrol, insurance etc.) 1/3 for social spending (dining, pubs, clubs, hobbies, etc.) The remaining 1/3 of income is used for accomodation - rent or mortgage. This is why the house prices/income ratio is usually between 3 to 4 times income as a mortgage of 3 to 4 times income is usually around 1/3 of take home income.

There is a graph in my signature which shows that UK housing bubbles usually form at about 3 to 3.5 times single income.

Joint incomes are usually calculated at 2.5 times household income or 3 times main income plus 1 times second income. This is due to increased risk of lending to 2 people.

3 to 4 times single income is also the historical mortgage size.

The average UK single income (depending upon which report you read) is between £24k to £27k. According to the latest government report from The Department of Social Development - the average Northern Ireland income is £21,000.

So given all this information - the basic calculation would be...

£21,000 x 3 = £63,000

Will the average Northern Ireland house price reach £63,000? Things are a little bit more complicated. You may have noticed that the government are currently using banana republic economics. The only thing I see preventing the prices falling to £60k to £70k is high wage inflation. Of course the income multiple will remain the same as living cost and social expenditure ratios are likely to remain the same. i.e if wages inflate so will all other costs.

This post has been edited by Belfast Boy: 11 November 2008 - 10:04 AM

[Austin Allegro]

My God, that Belfast house is lunacy! You could get a similar place in a decent part of London for half the price (though it would still be overpriced). How can they possibly justify those prices.

Poor old NI is going to have a big, big fall. A shame because the couple of times I have been there the people have been some of the nicest and most plain-dealing people I have met.

[gravity always wins]

uptherams, on Nov 11 2008, 09:31 AM, said:

No I didn't, but it sounds as though you did. I am new here, and from your sig it seems that you don't exactly see eye to eye with FP. Not altogether sure what your problem with him is. Would you rather he did not do this TV stuff about house prices? My only problem with him is that he is too optimistic !

No I and others here warned people at the time not to take the DOW bet as it was a ridiculous prediction in the opinion of anyone with half a brain. History proved us to be correct and FP to be disastrously wrong (does that make me a Dow expert? - no of course not) but like all Financial experts they try and pretend they said something else.

As you have seen my signature you will see what a vile and odious little person he is when he is found out for being the charlatan he is.

People need to stop listening to experts its what the telly does put a couple of "experts" on so people don't need to think for themselves.

As soon as I hear the word expert I know they are likely to be completely clueless.

THERE ARE NO EXPERTS ONLY THOSE WITH A VESTED INTEREST WHO CAN SHOUT LOUDER THAN ALL THE OTHERS.

Most of the real experts are busing risking their own money quietly.

[cheeznbreed]

Now on iPlayer:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00fh..._Live_10112008/

[Soul Reaver]

Reraise, on Nov 11 2008, 12:26 AM, said:

The only good thing to come out that show was me finding this website

It was a ridiculous show but no less than I would have expected. No discussion of solid evidence, just biased anecdotes from an estate agent with a vested interest in rising prices. I mean, are they really that ill informed? I'm a hopeful first time buyer and I've been able to find out about things like the affordability indices and first time buyer earnings to house value ratios with minimal internet research. They must know about this stuff, are they really just trying squeeze a few extra sales in a tough climate? Do they think they can influence the influence the market with this crap? The rest of the mainstream media are the same in NI. I was listening to a news show on BBC Radio Ulster about a week ago and they had a property developer on (from Hagan Homes I think) saying that he thought prices would rise in the new year because "I have had lots of enquiries from first time buyers who are a bit apprehensive at the minute and will have deposits ready to act in the new year" Really? This made the news! No mention of affordability for first time buyers or discussion on the wider economy.

Anyway, glad I found this site, lots of interesting info. I'm a first time buyer and am looking for advice/discussion on Northern Ireland, where's the best place to ask? I have a deposit and obviously want to go for max value. I was thinking of buying once the FTB_HPER (first time buyer house price to earnings ratio) gets to about 4 and/or when the affordability index gets to about 100. Does this sound reasonable? According to the nationwide website, the FTB_HPER is currently 5.3 with an affordability index of 158.8 and an average price of £160K.

Yes welcome aboard. As for advice

1. Save your cash
2. Save some more
3. Pay down debt
4. Don't buy a house
5. Start to think about buying end of 09
6. Still don't buy
7. Look at your growing pot of cash and smile
8. Maybe buy in 2010, we will see
9. Check here see what we are doing

[cheeznbreed]

doccyboy, on Nov 11 2008, 10:24 AM, said:

Its about 30 minutes in -- please dont watch the rest of the show it was awful.

yeah. Christ, I'm glad I dont have a telly.

Hmm. The EA was a fool, although Nolan did challenge him on the 'bottom' rubbish, and the EA was clearly lying.
I think EA's work on the same principle as outlet centres; they are now relying on a people judging a bargain on a price something used to sell for.
I thought FP did very well, and the comments from the audience were bearish too, although the second was not answered. Nolan was pretty brash. The rabid caller was a proper feckwit.
Hopefully a few more folks will think about it before stepping in.

[JoeDavola]

Didn't an audience member mention that the house he bought 6 years ago was worth 3 times as much at the peak?

This should give some indication of how far things will fall!

[Sour Mash]

JoeDavola, on Nov 11 2008, 10:42 AM, said:

Didn't an audience member mention that the house he bought 6 years ago was worth 3 times as much at the peak?

This should give some indication of how far things will fall!

Yeah and IIRC he was agreeing with the nutjob that phoned in to complain about doing the market down.

The obvious question to ask him would have been "Could you afford to buy your own house at peak price or even at 30% off the peak price?". If the answer was NO as it almost certainly would be, the obvious thing to ask yourself is "Well, then who is going to buy my place at that price?"......