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#316 hotairmail

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 03:08 PM

I don't like the fact that this thread is stuck on 666 views.




Just re-reading this thread....thought this was quite a prescient post!

"The chicken is radiating disorder out into the wider universe."


#317 Catflap

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 01:29 AM

I have totally given up trying to seriously foolcast with any amounts of money. It can send you mad after a while.

Just following cumulative nyad (which I know you look at) is as good as anything....

If price line falls below 6 month (26 week ma), exit and vice versa.

You could just review once a month at each month end to avoid whipsaws although there are drawbacks to this too.


It can, but I havn't given up and did eventually get it pretty right once I had better mastered Lindsay's techniques and learnt a bit more Elliot Wave. I got the June 4 low to the day and for a number of months I've been expecting a significant low in equities on July 16 or July 17 although think that it could extend to July 23, but no later.

I originally thought that wave 1 was going to finish in July with a 4-6 week bounce, but believe that wave 1 completed on June 4 and that wave 2 completed today on the FTSE with a 61.8% retracement. That means that big wave 3 starts tomorrow, July 5, 2012 and that the projected July low is possibly wave (i) of wave 3 and the 1-year cycle low.




I'm expecting the dollar index to make a short term peak around July 24 so that seems to support the slightly later July date for equities, but ultimately it looks like a re-run of 2008 with a projection for equities to make major bottoms in late October 2012 and late November 2012, then a final bear market low in mid-to-late April 2013.

I've got the dollar making a final peak on November 23, 2012 and it should have taken out the 2009 and 2010 highs by that date - so FTSE around 3,000 and S&P around 650 is still what I'm looking at.

This chart I did tonight to me suggests we could be on the edge of a big sell-off and the dollar is once again finding support at the 50-day EMA.




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#318 The Masked Tulip

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 08:43 AM

This chat mirrors your NYMO chart Catflap - someone else has been thinking similar things.

http://www.marketora...ticle35465.html

Posted Image
The success or failure of your deeds does not add up to the sum of your life. Your spirit cannot be weighed. Judge yourself by the intention of your actions and by the strength you faced the challenges that have stood in your way.

The people closest to you have been trying to tell you that you have made a difference. That you did change things for the better. The Universe is vast and we are so small. There is really only one thing that we can ever truly control - whether we are good or evil.


The political triumph of the American Right has been to advance relentlessly the economic interests of the country's richest people, while emphasising a swath of moral, social and foreign policy issues that motivate and certainly distract middle-class and poor voters.

#319 Democorruptcy

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 09:09 AM

Is The Equity Market Topping?

http://theshortsideo...blogspot.co.uk/

Democorruptcy
If you say "Democorruptcy" quickly, it sounds a bit like "Democracy". In a "Democracy" people vote for politicians who represent their interests. In the UK's "Democorruptcy" people can only vote for expense fiddling thieving MPs who are in the hip pocket of big business and the finance sector.

Governbankment
A "Governbankment" is a Government that has no line between itself and banks. It diverts public money (our taxes) to private companies (banks). George Osborne's Help to Buy Bail Banks, will see our taxes go to bankers to cover their losses on mortgages that default. The UK's Governbankment will even pay bankers "reasonable repossession fees" on Help to Bail Bank mortgages that default.

The Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is stealing from savers to make them pay for crimes by bankers. Via lower interest on savings, all the bank fines for PPI, LIBOR, interest rates swaps, etc. are being paid by savers so that bankers can keep pocketing bonuses. 

"We need to make a really big change: from an economy built on debt to an economy built on savings" - David Camoron Jan 2009
"Printing money is the last resort of desperate governments when all other policies have failed" - George Osborne Jan 2009
- So what do Camoron & Osborne do? Print money and leave interest rates at 0.5% when inflation is over 5%

If it is asserted that civilization is a real advance in the condition of man -- and I think that it is, though only the wise improve their advantages -- it must be shown that it has produced better dwellings without making them more costly; and the cost of a thing is the amount of what I will call life which is required to be exchanged for it, immediately or in the long run.
http://classiclit.ab...en-Part-2_4.htm

I want to tell you my secret now.... I see debt people


#320 Catflap

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Posted 30 July 2012 - 04:23 PM

This chat mirrors your NYMO chart Catflap - someone else has been thinking similar things.


Indeed - thanks!


I'm expecting the dollar index to make a short term peak around July 24 so that seems to support the slightly later July date for equities, but ultimately it looks like a re-run of 2008 with a projection for equities to make major bottoms in late October 2012 and late November 2012, then a final bear market low in mid-to-late April 2013.


I did at least get the short term peak on the dollar right as July 24 was the top - but the dollar being even higher than it was when equities bottomed on June 4 did not correspond to equities being even lower than their June 4 lows. Frustratingly, even with the dollar at 2-year highs the FTSE was still at 5500 on July 24 when the dollar peaked.

Quite amazing that this market can be proped-up on hopium though - last week a drugie said that more hopium was on it's way and it would be enough. The only problem is that this hopium is coming from Germany and there could be some delays!


So June 4, 2012 was the end of a Lindsay long basic decline lasting 399 calender days from the May 2, 2011 high and the significant low.

I'm expecting the dollar to make a cycle low over the next few days and then make a short term peak around September 10 with new highs. Looking for the next low in equities to be on August 21 which would be the 1-year cycle low and think the market might well top today based on my counts.

Hard to believe how strong the UK and US markets are with the cycles that are pushing down and what's going on in the world with countries requiring bailouts - the 10 year cycle should bottom in Q3/Q4 of a '2' year and given where the business/kondratieff cycles are should give a bottom like 1932/1942/1962/1982/2002 etc.

That buying opportunity of a lifetime where the FTSE gets down to 3000 still seems like a long way off.

#321 Democorruptcy

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Posted 30 July 2012 - 05:48 PM

I did at least get the short term peak on the dollar right as July 24 was the top - but the dollar being even higher than it was when equities bottomed on June 4 did not correspond to equities being even lower than their June 4 lows. Frustratingly, even with the dollar at 2-year highs the FTSE was still at 5500 on July 24 when the dollar peaked.


Don't you do forex trading? You could playing cricket when your real talent is football.

Democorruptcy
If you say "Democorruptcy" quickly, it sounds a bit like "Democracy". In a "Democracy" people vote for politicians who represent their interests. In the UK's "Democorruptcy" people can only vote for expense fiddling thieving MPs who are in the hip pocket of big business and the finance sector.

Governbankment
A "Governbankment" is a Government that has no line between itself and banks. It diverts public money (our taxes) to private companies (banks). George Osborne's Help to Buy Bail Banks, will see our taxes go to bankers to cover their losses on mortgages that default. The UK's Governbankment will even pay bankers "reasonable repossession fees" on Help to Bail Bank mortgages that default.

The Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is stealing from savers to make them pay for crimes by bankers. Via lower interest on savings, all the bank fines for PPI, LIBOR, interest rates swaps, etc. are being paid by savers so that bankers can keep pocketing bonuses. 

"We need to make a really big change: from an economy built on debt to an economy built on savings" - David Camoron Jan 2009
"Printing money is the last resort of desperate governments when all other policies have failed" - George Osborne Jan 2009
- So what do Camoron & Osborne do? Print money and leave interest rates at 0.5% when inflation is over 5%

If it is asserted that civilization is a real advance in the condition of man -- and I think that it is, though only the wise improve their advantages -- it must be shown that it has produced better dwellings without making them more costly; and the cost of a thing is the amount of what I will call life which is required to be exchanged for it, immediately or in the long run.
http://classiclit.ab...en-Part-2_4.htm

I want to tell you my secret now.... I see debt people


#322 Catflap

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Posted 30 July 2012 - 11:21 PM

Don't you do forex trading? You could playing cricket when your real talent is football.


I'm not so sure - I've got to be better than 50% of the time otherwise I'm no better than someone that flips a coin!. I'm better with the bigger picture and understanding cyclical/secular trends as history shows that these cycles repeat in a similar manner. Trying to predict what is going to happen on a shorter time frame is incredibly difficult, but in there lies the challenge!...... smaller cycles can invert due to another cycle so a forecast high turns out to be a low or a larger cycle just trumps the smaller cycle.

From a PM I've finally got round to answering but wanted to put here.

Do you have an opinion on Sterling? Versus USD/Euro.


Yes,

I think Sterling will be in a bull market against the USD until Q4 2013 to Q1 2014 and

I think Sterling will be in a bull market against the Euro until Q4 2017 to Q1 2018

Good news or bad news?........ If your looking to buy a house in the US or Europe in the future then it will be good news. If you want to have holidays in these countries it will be good news. It's also going to make UK house prices more expensive to foreign buyers which is a good thing. Foreigners who live and own houses in the UK might also start to see that they will be even better off if they sell-up in the UK and move back home...... more likely when the financial crisis is finally over and prices have reached rock bottom in those countries.

If you believe that the stock market is too expensive and should decline then a stronger pound should help that as something like 70% of the FTSE100 companies earnings come from abroad. When those overseas earnings get repatriated back to the UK they will now be worth less in the same way as a French person visiting the UK will find that their money buys them less. That means reduced profits and on it's own would mean lower share prices.

Which begs the question - how on earth has the FTSE managed to reach 5700 again! :rolleyes:

#323 Democorruptcy

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 07:04 AM

I'm not so sure - I've got to be better than 50% of the time otherwise I'm no better than someone that flips a coin!.

I think Sterling will be in a bull market against the USD until Q4 2013 to Q1 2014 and

I think Sterling will be in a bull market against the Euro until Q4 2017 to Q1 2018

Good news or bad news?........ If your looking to buy a house in the US or Europe in the future then it will be good news. If you want to have holidays in these countries it will be good news. It's also going to make UK house prices more expensive to foreign buyers which is a good thing. Foreigners who live and own houses in the UK might also start to see that they will be even better off if they sell-up in the UK and move back home...... more likely when the financial crisis is finally over and prices have reached rock bottom in those countries.

If you believe that the stock market is too expensive and should decline then a stronger pound should help that as something like 70% of the FTSE100 companies earnings come from abroad. When those overseas earnings get repatriated back to the UK they will now be worth less in the same way as a French person visiting the UK will find that their money buys them less. That means reduced profits and on it's own would mean lower share prices.

Which begs the question - how on earth has the FTSE managed to reach 5700 again!


I was just thinking that maybe the financial "crisis" (QE, etc) make markets harder to predict than currencies. If you get the wider picture right but your currency predictions work out better than the shares have markets/currencies disconnected a bit? I used to think risk on was sterling up but it doesn't always seem to follow now.

If you are right about sterling being in a bull market does that mean money flowing in, where money flows in don't they have housing bubbles?

Democorruptcy
If you say "Democorruptcy" quickly, it sounds a bit like "Democracy". In a "Democracy" people vote for politicians who represent their interests. In the UK's "Democorruptcy" people can only vote for expense fiddling thieving MPs who are in the hip pocket of big business and the finance sector.

Governbankment
A "Governbankment" is a Government that has no line between itself and banks. It diverts public money (our taxes) to private companies (banks). George Osborne's Help to Buy Bail Banks, will see our taxes go to bankers to cover their losses on mortgages that default. The UK's Governbankment will even pay bankers "reasonable repossession fees" on Help to Bail Bank mortgages that default.

The Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is stealing from savers to make them pay for crimes by bankers. Via lower interest on savings, all the bank fines for PPI, LIBOR, interest rates swaps, etc. are being paid by savers so that bankers can keep pocketing bonuses. 

"We need to make a really big change: from an economy built on debt to an economy built on savings" - David Camoron Jan 2009
"Printing money is the last resort of desperate governments when all other policies have failed" - George Osborne Jan 2009
- So what do Camoron & Osborne do? Print money and leave interest rates at 0.5% when inflation is over 5%

If it is asserted that civilization is a real advance in the condition of man -- and I think that it is, though only the wise improve their advantages -- it must be shown that it has produced better dwellings without making them more costly; and the cost of a thing is the amount of what I will call life which is required to be exchanged for it, immediately or in the long run.
http://classiclit.ab...en-Part-2_4.htm

I want to tell you my secret now.... I see debt people


#324 Catflap

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Posted 05 August 2012 - 11:35 PM

I'm expecting the dollar to make a cycle low over the next few days and then make a short term peak around September 10 with new highs. Looking for the next low in equities to be on August 21 which would be the 1-year cycle low and think the market might well top today based on my counts.


A low on/around August 21 isn't going to be that significant and I believe the market should continue falling and making new lows for the year before a decent low is found on September 20, 2012. I've got a projection for TLT to make new highs around September 24 as well.


I was just thinking that maybe the financial "crisis" (QE, etc) make markets harder to predict than currencies. If you get the wider picture right but your currency predictions work out better than the shares have markets/currencies disconnected a bit? I used to think risk on was sterling up but it doesn't always seem to follow now.

If you are right about sterling being in a bull market does that mean money flowing in, where money flows in don't they have housing bubbles?


Everything has it's own cycle and when the two are in sync it gives that impression. If Sterling stays strong I'm not sure it's going to have that much affect on UK house prices since they are still in bubble territory and the vast amount of mortgage debt is denominated in Sterling anyway.

There's often a secondary lower high after the main peak of a bubble caused by those who see the dip as a chance to get in on the action and who missed out on all the gains. We've already had that with housing from 2009-2010 and the 2007 bubble peak is becoming a distant memory in the minds of many.

Everyone that wanted to go to the housing party has been and those that arrived to find the party finished have also gone home - the current housing party is in Germany. The next bubble is obviously commodities and gold/silver especially - ultimately deflation will catch up with house prices and rents.

#325 Catflap

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 10:35 PM

A low on/around August 21 isn't going to be that significant and I believe the market should continue falling and making new lows for the year before a decent low is found on September 20, 2012. I've got a projection for TLT to make new highs around September 24 as well.


Need to ammend the equity date slightly as I hadn't counted it properly - now comes out the same date as TLT, so:

- A bottom in equities and a top in TLT on September 24

- A top in the dollar on September 10 (and possibly a low in gold as September 10 is the apex of a triangle on gold)

#326 Catflap

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Posted 30 August 2012 - 12:40 AM

Now that a top is in (August 21) then another 23-trading day decline from this date would target a low on Sepember 24 which fits with the last post I made calling for a low on that date. I thought that August 21 was going to be the 1-year cycle low from the post I made 4 weeks ago and if you go back in history you will see that a significant seasonal low occurs in either July or August - this year the cycle seems to have inverted!. At least I got the date right lol




The dollar looks to have completed it's correction and a different cycle is more evident to the one I've been using. Gold should now make fresh lows going into the autumn as the dollar makes new highs




Where will gold/gold miners make their final bottom?

All my work is pointing to either November 23, 2012 (Friday) or November 26, 2012 (Monday)

Where will the equity bear market end?

I've now narrowed this down to a sigle day and believe the US markets will make a final low on April 29, 2013.

#327 hotairmail

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Posted 30 August 2012 - 08:05 AM

Now that a top is in (August 21) then another 23-trading day decline from this date would target a low on Sepember 24 which fits with the last post I made calling for a low on that date. I thought that August 21 was going to be the 1-year cycle low from the post I made 4 weeks ago and if you go back in history you will see that a significant seasonal low occurs in either July or August - this year the cycle seems to have inverted!. At least I got the date right lol




The dollar looks to have completed it's correction and a different cycle is more evident to the one I've been using. Gold should now make fresh lows going into the autumn as the dollar makes new highs




Where will gold/gold miners make their final bottom?

All my work is pointing to either November 23, 2012 (Friday) or November 26, 2012 (Monday)

Where will the equity bear market end?

I've now narrowed this down to a sigle day and believe the US markets will make a final low on April 29, 2013.


I'm going to build a Temple to you if that is all right.

"The chicken is radiating disorder out into the wider universe."


#328 The Masked Tulip

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Posted 30 August 2012 - 08:44 AM

I'm going to build a Temple to you if that is all right.



I'll give you a hand.

I won't actually do anything, but I will stand around pointing out that your mix of sand, cement and water are not correct.
The success or failure of your deeds does not add up to the sum of your life. Your spirit cannot be weighed. Judge yourself by the intention of your actions and by the strength you faced the challenges that have stood in your way.

The people closest to you have been trying to tell you that you have made a difference. That you did change things for the better. The Universe is vast and we are so small. There is really only one thing that we can ever truly control - whether we are good or evil.


The political triumph of the American Right has been to advance relentlessly the economic interests of the country's richest people, while emphasising a swath of moral, social and foreign policy issues that motivate and certainly distract middle-class and poor voters.

#329 Democorruptcy

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Posted 30 August 2012 - 10:59 AM

Now that a top is in (August 21) then another 23-trading day decline from this date would target a low on Sepember 24 which fits with the last post I made calling for a low on that date. I thought that August 21 was going to be the 1-year cycle low from the post I made 4 weeks ago and if you go back in history you will see that a significant seasonal low occurs in either July or August - this year the cycle seems to have inverted!. At least I got the date right lol

The dollar looks to have completed it's correction and a different cycle is more evident to the one I've been using. Gold should now make fresh lows going into the autumn as the dollar makes new highs

Where will gold/gold miners make their final bottom?

All my work is pointing to either November 23, 2012 (Friday) or November 26, 2012 (Monday)

Where will the equity bear market end?

I've now narrowed this down to a sigle day and believe the US markets will make a final low on April 29, 2013.


So you think the trend is USD up but Gold and Shares down until Apr 2013 (with or without blips like a Christmas rally etc)

Though 31st July you had sterling in a bull v USD until towards the end of 2013.

I think Sterling will be in a bull market against the USD until Q4 2013 to Q1 2014 and

I think Sterling will be in a bull market against the Euro until Q4 2017 to Q1 2018


If USD is up until Apr 2013 won't that knock sterling until then?

Democorruptcy
If you say "Democorruptcy" quickly, it sounds a bit like "Democracy". In a "Democracy" people vote for politicians who represent their interests. In the UK's "Democorruptcy" people can only vote for expense fiddling thieving MPs who are in the hip pocket of big business and the finance sector.

Governbankment
A "Governbankment" is a Government that has no line between itself and banks. It diverts public money (our taxes) to private companies (banks). George Osborne's Help to Buy Bail Banks, will see our taxes go to bankers to cover their losses on mortgages that default. The UK's Governbankment will even pay bankers "reasonable repossession fees" on Help to Bail Bank mortgages that default.

The Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is stealing from savers to make them pay for crimes by bankers. Via lower interest on savings, all the bank fines for PPI, LIBOR, interest rates swaps, etc. are being paid by savers so that bankers can keep pocketing bonuses. 

"We need to make a really big change: from an economy built on debt to an economy built on savings" - David Camoron Jan 2009
"Printing money is the last resort of desperate governments when all other policies have failed" - George Osborne Jan 2009
- So what do Camoron & Osborne do? Print money and leave interest rates at 0.5% when inflation is over 5%

If it is asserted that civilization is a real advance in the condition of man -- and I think that it is, though only the wise improve their advantages -- it must be shown that it has produced better dwellings without making them more costly; and the cost of a thing is the amount of what I will call life which is required to be exchanged for it, immediately or in the long run.
http://classiclit.ab...en-Part-2_4.htm

I want to tell you my secret now.... I see debt people


#330 Catflap

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Posted 30 August 2012 - 12:37 PM

So you think the trend is USD up but Gold and Shares down until Apr 2013 (with or without blips like a Christmas rally etc)



Jeez - where did I just say all that?. Coming back on here is like walking in primary school again :rolleyes:


Where will gold/gold miners make their final bottom?

All my work is pointing to either November 23, 2012 (Friday) or November 26, 2012 (Monday)


Is that clear enough?


Where will the equity bear market end?

I've now narrowed this down to a single day and believe the US markets will make a final low on April 29, 2013.


Got it?

Though 31st July you had sterling in a bull v USD until towards the end of 2013.


Yes, my work is saying sterling will technically be in a bull market against the dollar until Q4 2013 to Q1 2014 but that has nothing to do with other forecasts. When I say technical it's because I think it's going to be weak.


If USD is up until Apr 2013 won't that knock sterling until then?


You said that not me - I have no idea what euro/dollar euro/pound or pound/dollar will do between late November 2012 and late April 2013 and don't care to either. All I need to know is when gold/gold shares will bottom (November 23, 2012 or November 26, 2012 is my forecast) and where the Dow/S&P will bottom (April 29, 2013 is my forecast).

Theorising over short term currency fluctuations that may or may not happen at some window in the future is a complete waste of time and a distraction. All I want to know is where the final leg of the gold bull market starts and where the next equity bull market starts. That's where you will make money.

Catflap

Edited by Catflap, 30 August 2012 - 12:38 PM.





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