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This Is The Bottom For Stocks


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#1 carseller

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Posted 16 October 2008 - 08:30 PM

Or so I think. Maybe not the final one, but stocks are very cheap, and pessimism is widespread. This is probably a good times to buy the dow jones, or nikkei.
Once people get the reality check, than it's going to get ugly again," Roubini said. ( Clinging to his "boom of gloom")

#2 Nicholas Cage

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Posted 16 October 2008 - 10:54 PM

Myself going for 10,000 as the limit, so selling with a stop around 10,500 hoping it carries on falling. With volatility highest in decades it's the only way I feel safe over days.

Being short I should get paid for carrying it over.


16/10/08 23:49 Order Wall Street Cash - Web xxxx -0.4 8985 10500 G - Guaranteed Position opened: xxxx

Edited by Nicholas Cage, 16 October 2008 - 10:57 PM.


#3 needle

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Posted 16 October 2008 - 10:55 PM

"Only monkeys pick bottoms"

#4 R K

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 10:00 AM

Or so I think. Maybe not the final one, but stocks are very cheap, and pessimism is widespread. This is probably a good times to buy the dow jones, or nikkei.


My view also.

Volatility, accumulation, technical indicators, VIX/VXO, re-tested last weeks lows yesterday and held. US elections, oil halved. Near-term bottom at least. DOW could go to 11,000 from here fairly soon I think, maybe even 12,000 and SPX 1200-1250. I wouldn't rule out more plunge days to around 8,000 though and continuing volatility, so excessive leverage will be punished.


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE 100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#5 geed

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 10:36 AM

Myself going for 10,000 as the limit, so selling with a stop around 10,500 hoping it carries on falling. With volatility highest in decades it's the only way I feel safe over days.

Being short I should get paid for carrying it over.


16/10/08 23:49 Order Wall Street Cash - Web xxxx -0.4 8985 10500 G - Guaranteed Position opened: xxxx


Mr Cage

I am intrigued with this spread betting (IMHO this appears to be what you are talking about!) malarkey. The Dow closed at 8979.26 last night and futures are currently showing 8760 ish for todays opening, so down. Your betting the Dow will rise over the short term to 10000, so I take it you have bought at 8985?

"so selling with a stop around 10,500 hoping it carries on falling", also I dont quite get this, do you mean you have capped your profit to 10500 in the hope that if it hits this it will then plummet?

Also, not wanting to be too nosey but what do you usually bet per point?

I stand to be educated, hopefully!

#6 geed

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 10:37 AM

"Only monkeys pick bottoms"


Incorrect, I am not a monkey.

#7 Te Mata

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 10:47 AM

Or so I think. Maybe not the final one, but stocks are very cheap, and pessimism is widespread. This is probably a good times to buy the dow jones, or nikkei.

But are stocks that cheap? Undoubtedly there are a few sucked down unfairly, but what is going to happen to earnings as we go into recession depression? I don't think, on a whole, stocks are very cheap at all. I would be thinking long and hard about earnings reality in individual names before being sucked into the "stocks are cheap" meme.

And now that the leverage rug has been yank out and the first lot of boomers start retiring soon, the overall market could just struggle... really struggle.

Just a thought.

#8 R K

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 01:02 PM

Mr Cage

I am intrigued with this spread betting (IMHO this appears to be what you are talking about!) malarkey. The Dow closed at 8979.26 last night and futures are currently showing 8760 ish for todays opening, so down. Your betting the Dow will rise over the short term to 10000, so I take it you have bought at 8985?

"so selling with a stop around 10,500 hoping it carries on falling", also I dont quite get this, do you mean you have capped your profit to 10500 in the hope that if it hits this it will then plummet?

Also, not wanting to be too nosey but what do you usually bet per point?

I stand to be educated, hopefully!


Until Nick comes back I read his post the opposite of what you are saying. i.e. he thinks 10,000 is the likely upper bounce, hence is shorting with a stop at 10,500 in case he's wrong. He's capping his losses at 10,500. Stand to be corrected.


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE 100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#9 Nicholas Cage

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 01:55 PM

Until Nick comes back I read his post the opposite of what you are saying. i.e. he thinks 10,000 is the likely upper bounce, hence is shorting with a stop at 10,500 in case he's wrong. He's capping his losses at 10,500. Stand to be corrected.


This one.

Anyway I only had 180 point limit so am out of the bet now.

DEAL Closing trades 17/10/08 Wall Street Cash - 8985 $ -0.40 8805 $720.00

Edit: pasted correct deal.


I'm happiest losing 100 then making 100 instead of actually getting a profit, still lost money since I started but it's getting smaller.
I don't think anyone starting out like me can make money because the capital required to cover the volatility is too much of a risk.
Much better to do it for fun and hope to break even.

Edited by Nicholas Cage, 17 October 2008 - 02:00 PM.


#10 carseller

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 07:18 PM

Some stocks I bought earlier this year, fishing for a bottom is down more than 90 %, and nothing fundamentally have changed. I think this is the bottom. In these stocks I am going to double up, so I get twice as many shares as I already had.

Lower short term rates (not central bank, but market rate), and higher long term yields, double bottom in 10 year treasuries, double bottom in the dow.

This is the bottom, nothing to discuss.

Edited by carseller, 17 October 2008 - 07:19 PM.

Once people get the reality check, than it's going to get ugly again," Roubini said. ( Clinging to his "boom of gloom")

#11 Te Mata

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 07:30 PM

Some stocks I bought earlier this year, fishing for a bottom is down more than 90 %, and nothing fundamentally have changed. I think this is the bottom. In these stocks I am going to double up, so I get twice as many shares as I already had.

Lower short term rates (not central bank, but market rate), and higher long term yields, double bottom in 10 year treasuries, double bottom in the dow.

This is the bottom, nothing to discuss.

It very well could be the bottom.

But then again it might not. How do you know fundamentals have not changed? If so, why are they 90% down? What are other stocks in severely hit sectors NOT down 90%? eg HSBC in the banking sector? Fundamental analysis in this sort of environment requires some forensic accounting skills as the published figures are lagging and may be changing rapidly.

Cheers and good luck

#12 Guillotine

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 07:55 PM

Some stocks I bought earlier this year, fishing for a bottom is down more than 90 %, and nothing fundamentally have changed. I think this is the bottom. In these stocks I am going to double up, so I get twice as many shares as I already had.

Lower short term rates (not central bank, but market rate), and higher long term yields, double bottom in 10 year treasuries, double bottom in the dow.

This is the bottom, nothing to discuss.


I'm one third in the last two days, the remaining two tranches will go in this coming week. The missus has given her blessing, and we have waited patiently for many years this opening so we're not letting this slip through our fingers.

Eyes wide open, it's a gamble but not everyone has cash to get stuck in at the moment. Even if earnings come down 25% I feel confident that the right divvies will far exceed cash in the bank, particularly as we are moving into a low interest rate environment.

The world does not owe me a living, I am fully informed, caveat emptor, and I can wait, wait and wait to sell.

#13 Te Mata

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 08:21 PM

I'm one third in the last two days, the remaining two tranches will go in this coming week. The missus has given her blessing, and we have waited patiently for many years this opening so we're not letting this slip through our fingers.

Eyes wide open, it's a gamble but not everyone has cash to get stuck in at the moment. Even if earnings come down 25% I feel confident that the right divvies will far exceed cash in the bank, particularly as we are moving into a low interest rate environment.

The world does not owe me a living, I am fully informed, caveat emptor, and I can wait, wait and wait to sell.

For the record, I'm buying a little bit for the bottom drawer as well. All I'm advocating is viewing the published fundamentals with suspicion, particularly those whose share price has really taken it up the backside.

fwiw

#14 Guillotine

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 08:27 PM

For the record, I'm buying a little bit for the bottom drawer as well. All I'm advocating is viewing the published fundamentals with suspicion, particularly those whose share price has really taken it up the backside.

fwiw


Aye, do your own research and don't fight your cynicisms!

#15 FallingKnife

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 10:35 PM

Or so I think. Maybe not the final one, but stocks are very cheap, and pessimism is widespread. This is probably a good times to buy the dow jones, or nikkei.


heh I thought RBS looked cheap at 180 so I better not call the bottom this time. Personally don't think it is yet anyway, I think we saw the big crash last week but reckon it will slide for another 6-12 months from here. Some sectors have still got a long way to go yet, retail, travel, . And some bombed out stuff will start giving out too (inexplicably, dogs like Barratt and Taylor Wipeout still exist?!)

Agree that the Nikkei could be oversold in the short term though, it got slaughtered this week!
"The big wheel keeps on turning, on a simple line, day by day"




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