[Einstein71]

I have been doing a bit of business recently in New York and the place is starting to really grow on me. It seems to have the vibe of London without the crime. Zero Tolerance seems to have really worked since I was there in the early 90's.

A few colleagues have been looking at places and telling me that the prices have now bottomed out. I would be particularly interested in the Upper East Side but it still seems quite expensive.

I dont own a house in the UK because I think it has another 20% - 25% left to drop but with New York it seems like the worst has been and gone....I might be wrong and I am in no rush.

I'd probably be looking at spending around $550k (£300k) for something with 2 beds. Do you think the prices have further to drop in NYC? And does anybody have any info on good areas in the City? I would be looking to keep it as a pad for friends and family at first but may also be looking to let it out short term in the future.

Thanks

[canada dry]

The best place has got to be Manhattan - expensive but will never lose value. http://www.hiday.net/

[forestfire]

"expensive but will never lose value"

What a stupid comment, but still it's only there for the link to spam...

Einstein, I think that it may be a year or two before prices bottom in the US, though if the pound keeps falling, maybe in that sense they have already bottomed. I would recommend reading what Bill Gross has to say about the housing market on the PIMCO website -I think he said that prices would fall another 10% over the next year. I remember reading an article recently that said while the subprime defaults may have peaked, a second wave of so called prime mortgage defaults will take the market lower. I think that the US is ahead of the curve in terms of the current economic problems and because their market works more efficiently than most they will bottom first.
I like NY -it's a great city -good luck with your prospective purchase.

[Bri2]

Einstein71, on Aug 28 2008, 01:15 PM, said:

I have been doing a bit of business recently in New York and the place is starting to really grow on me. It seems to have the vibe of London without the crime. Zero Tolerance seems to have really worked since I was there in the early 90's.

A few colleagues have been looking at places and telling me that the prices have now bottomed out. I would be particularly interested in the Upper East Side but it still seems quite expensive.

I dont own a house in the UK because I think it has another 20% - 25% left to drop but with New York it seems like the worst has been and gone....I might be wrong and I am in no rush.

I'd probably be looking at spending around $550k (£300k) for something with 2 beds. Do you think the prices have further to drop in NYC? And does anybody have any info on good areas in the City? I would be looking to keep it as a pad for friends and family at first but may also be looking to let it out short term in the future.

Thanks

You'll have to wait 5 years to dump your Spanish junk tho

[Chicken]

"A few colleagues have been looking at places and telling me that the prices have now bottomed out."
Not even close to bottoming out yet. I've been tracking a few areas of NY for the last 18 months and significant cuts are only just starting to come out of the woodwork. Transactions take an eternity to complete over there so the marks we are seeing now relate to deals initiated anywhere back to the start of the year. Trulia, Zillow and Propertyshark are very useful sites if you want to track. I think another 30-40% down from here across the board.


I would be particularly interested in the Upper East Side but it still seems quite expensive."
I'm sure you have your reasons for looking there but it's overpriced relative to the rest of NY in my opinion. My two cents on the areas I know:
- Midtown is still pricey but cheaper than UES and more convenient. This is the area for the quintessential NY experience.
- Lower East Side. Funky, cheap (relatively), up and coming - think Soho in the late-70's/early-80's.
- Battery Park City. Cheap but for a reason. Sterile (like Canary Wharf 10 years ago) and obviously linked to the fortunes of Wall Street.
- Chinatown. Cheap. Excellent if you want to pretend you are living in Hong Kong. An acquired taste otherwise.

FWIW, I'm looking in Victorian Flatbush in Brooklyn - 20 mins from downtown Manhattan. A 6 bed / 3 bath 4,000 sq ft house with a garden is the same money as a two bed apartment in Midtown.

[Einstein71]

Bri2, on Aug 29 2008, 10:35 AM, said:

You'll have to wait 5 years to dump your Spanish junk tho

You would have left school by then as well.

[Einstein71]

Chicken, on Aug 29 2008, 11:06 AM, said:

"A few colleagues have been looking at places and telling me that the prices have now bottomed out."
Not even close to bottoming out yet. I've been tracking a few areas of NY for the last 18 months and significant cuts are only just starting to come out of the woodwork. Transactions take an eternity to complete over there so the marks we are seeing now relate to deals initiated anywhere back to the start of the year. Trulia, Zillow and Propertyshark are very useful sites if you want to track. I think another 30-40% down from here across the board.


I would be particularly interested in the Upper East Side but it still seems quite expensive."
I'm sure you have your reasons for looking there but it's overpriced relative to the rest of NY in my opinion. My two cents on the areas I know:
- Midtown is still pricey but cheaper than UES and more convenient. This is the area for the quintessential NY experience.
- Lower East Side. Funky, cheap (relatively), up and coming - think Soho in the late-70's/early-80's.
- Battery Park City. Cheap but for a reason. Sterile (like Canary Wharf 10 years ago) and obviously linked to the fortunes of Wall Street.
- Chinatown. Cheap. Excellent if you want to pretend you are living in Hong Kong. An acquired taste otherwise.

FWIW, I'm looking in Victorian Flatbush in Brooklyn - 20 mins from downtown Manhattan. A 6 bed / 3 bath 4,000 sq ft house with a garden is the same money as a two bed apartment in Midtown.

This is really great advice, I really appreciate it.

I think patience is the key here, I think you might be right about prices falling further and I dont need to rush into anything. No harm in looking around though. How come your thinking of buying 6 bed 3 bath? Are you living in NY or thinking of renting out long term? What is crime like when you start heading out of the tourist areas? bear in mind I lived for many years in Streatham and Lewisham. Is it any worse than districts of London?

[Einstein71]

forestfire, on Aug 28 2008, 08:02 PM, said:

"expensive but will never lose value"

What a stupid comment, but still it's only there for the link to spam...

Einstein, I think that it may be a year or two before prices bottom in the US, though if the pound keeps falling, maybe in that sense they have already bottomed. I would recommend reading what Bill Gross has to say about the housing market on the PIMCO website -I think he said that prices would fall another 10% over the next year. I remember reading an article recently that said while the subprime defaults may have peaked, a second wave of so called prime mortgage defaults will take the market lower. I think that the US is ahead of the curve in terms of the current economic problems and because their market works more efficiently than most they will bottom first.
I like NY -it's a great city -good luck with your prospective purchase.

I think your right, the US may not have bottomed yet but it will certainly plateau sooner than the UK. I think I will certainly ignore my colleagues and wait until at least after Xmas before deciding on my next step.

Cheers Forestfire

[Chicken]

Einstein71, on Aug 29 2008, 01:22 PM, said:

This is really great advice, I really appreciate it.

I think patience is the key here, I think you might be right about prices falling further and I dont need to rush into anything. No harm in looking around though. How come your thinking of buying 6 bed 3 bath? Are you living in NY or thinking of renting out long term? What is crime like when you start heading out of the tourist areas? bear in mind I lived for many years in Streatham and Lewisham. Is it any worse than districts of London?

You're welcome.

I'm in London but moving to NY early next year and I've spent a lot of time there.
Looking around is great fun - check out Trulia and cross-reference with Google Maps. All of NY is available on streetview now so you can stroll around the neighbourhood to see what's there (looks like the photos are only about 3-4 months out of date).

You can get crime statistics online for every part of NY but you won't get the true picture until you actually live there. Like every major city, there's good parts and bad. Even somewhere that looks good on the paper might make you uncomfortable depending on your circumstances. eg I hate Brighton Beach but you might love it if you are russian. Overall though, crime is way down on what it used to be and there's not really anywhere that is a complete no-go area for me. A St. Reatham man should feel the same!

Even though we've narrowed down the general area where we want to live, NY can change from block to block so we aren't rushing into anything. Also, I can't expect the bottoming of prices to coincide exactly with my moving so we're renting for 1-2 years until we find the right place.

If you find you get to the City to Canary Wharf part of London regularly, I'd be happy to meet up for a drink to discuss further.

This post has been edited by Chicken: 29 August 2008 - 02:47 PM

[BootleConcertina]

Chicken, on Aug 29 2008, 10:06 AM, said:

"A few colleagues have been looking at places and telling me that the prices have now bottomed out."
Not even close to bottoming out yet. I've been tracking a few areas of NY for the last 18 months and significant cuts are only just starting to come out of the woodwork. Transactions take an eternity to complete over there so the marks we are seeing now relate to deals initiated anywhere back to the start of the year. Trulia, Zillow and Propertyshark are very useful sites if you want to track. I think another 30-40% down from here across the board.


I would be particularly interested in the Upper East Side but it still seems quite expensive."
I'm sure you have your reasons for looking there but it's overpriced relative to the rest of NY in my opinion. My two cents on the areas I know:
- Midtown is still pricey but cheaper than UES and more convenient. This is the area for the quintessential NY experience.
- Lower East Side. Funky, cheap (relatively), up and coming - think Soho in the late-70's/early-80's.
- Battery Park City. Cheap but for a reason. Sterile (like Canary Wharf 10 years ago) and obviously linked to the fortunes of Wall Street.
- Chinatown. Cheap. Excellent if you want to pretend you are living in Hong Kong. An acquired taste otherwise.

FWIW, I'm looking in Victorian Flatbush in Brooklyn - 20 mins from downtown Manhattan. A 6 bed / 3 bath 4,000 sq ft house with a garden is the same money as a two bed apartment in Midtown.

Chicken, you are obviously very knowledgeable re NY, would Chinatown or anywhere in Manhattan have a 1 bedroom flat for $150,000/$200,000? Or come to that anywhere where a white male would feel comfortable?
I have read that NY property prices have fallen the least of anywhere in the USA, so it is interesting to see you say that things are now starting to happen there.

[Caribbean Beauty]

Einstein, my advice would be to remember that owning a property in the USA does not confer residency status - it is very hard to get permission to live there, and you will be restricted to short visits to your property only, and might even get deported and barred if you take the pee. Many Brits buy nice villas in Florida (or used to at least, when they had equity) thinking they can play golf in the sun for their retirement, but soon realise they are forbidden to live there unless they go through the usual long and complex loopholes eg starting a company etc etc. Nice idea though, I like New York, it seems to function so much more efficiently than London, and I was able to taste exotic foreign food there which is simply unavailable even in London

[Converted Lurker]

Useful link:

We never miss a foreclosure. We guarantee it!
There are dozens of web sites selling nationwide foreclosure lists. These sites typically miss 20% or more of the listings. PropertyShark is local and focused. Since we are investors ourselves, we know that the best deals are the ones that others miss. So we make it our business to never miss a foreclosure. We guarantee it. If we miss a foreclosure in NYC, give us the index number, and we'll give you three months free. It's that simple.


http://www.propertys...orcs_intro.html

[Chicken]

BootleConcertina, on Nov 16 2008, 03:58 AM, said:

Chicken, you are obviously very knowledgeable re NY, would Chinatown or anywhere in Manhattan have a 1 bedroom flat for $150,000/$200,000? Or come to that anywhere where a white male would feel comfortable?
I have read that NY property prices have fallen the least of anywhere in the USA, so it is interesting to see you say that things are now starting to happen there.

You won't get anything in Manhattan for less than $200k yet unless it's really far north. Like London, there is still a big premium for being very central. Chinatown is a great location and I love the neighbourhood but it's quite "gritty" and not for everyone. Prices have always been reasonable relative to the rest of Manhattan, although (like everything) too expensive at the moment.

With the coming collapse, I expect that prices will come down to that level eventually but you won't get much for your money, and it will definitely be a small flat (and probably a walk-up) for that money. If you don't mind living a little further out, you'll get a lot more for your money in Brooklyn. For not much more, you could buy a house and rent out the lower/upper floors.

Safety-wise, there's not many areas I would consider truly dangerous but there are places I would feel a bit nervous about. That's as much a personal thing as it is to do with crime statistics. Best bet is to go walk the neighbourhood and get a feel for the place and its residents. There's lots of local blogs and forums to help narrow down your search as well.

Check out http://www.trulia.com/ to see what is available (and don't forget those are the asking prices, not what might be accepted). http://www.streeteasy.com/ is also a good site as it shows you how long properties have been on the market and the asking price progression.

[The Coffee Grinder]

great thread guys..

i love NYC
what percent of property prices is rent currently fetching in Manhattan ect?
What red tape is there in NYC state for property owning and what taxes do you have to pay?
How long does it take from seeing a property to getting the keys if your paying cash?

cheers guys

This post has been edited by The Coffee Grinder: 11 February 2009 - 08:26 AM

[Chicken]

Rental yields vary wildly according to location and property type (condo, coop, shared house, room, etc) but are currently between 5 and 10% gross. A couple of caveats;
1) It's normal for heat, hot water, and common charges to be included in multi-dwellings - this can easily be up to a third of the gross rent
2) Rents are coming down, although low-end rentals are still holding up okay. This lowers the yield but counteracted by lower purchase prices.

There's a fair bit of red tape for almost anything in NY - nothing insurmountable though. You have to pay property taxes (equivalent to council tax), which is not too bad in Manhattan and Brooklyn but do check before you sign on the dotted line. They are also likely to go up because of the big shortfall in the budget. Mansion tax of 1% of purchase price is also payable if you are buying anything over $1m.

Here are a couple of buyers guide I've found on the net to help you. They are a bit janet and john but may have some useful info for you.
http://www.channel4....-06-24_p_1.html
http://www.associate...ome_buyers.html
http://www.cityrealt...m/buyers_guide/

I still see a long way down for prices to go. NYC (like London) has always been expensive rel to average income but it is still way above reasonable at the mo. Give it another year and there will be bargains.