[Flatdog]

eric pebble, on Aug 15 2008, 04:11 PM, said:

Hey FP! Keep on truckin' mate -- keep up the EXCELLENT work - Someone PREPARED to stand tall and tell it as it is........ All good luck to you mate!

One thing, FP: -- Some may think I am obsessed about Liar Loans/Mortgage Fraud - and they'd be right. So what?!

Anyway -- What is your line on Liar Loans? What do you think should be done to stop them?

PLUS -- The MOST IMPORTANT thing to remember about Liar Loans, imo, is that THEY SKEW THE MARKET "PRICE" upwards - EVEN IF ONLY SOME PEOPLE USE THEM:

i.e. Wherever a Liar Loan is taken out to make a purchase - be it a village, a street, a town, a city etc. -- IT HAS A PROFOUND EFFECT ON THE LOCAL MARKET --

BECAUSE - AS THE EAs USE LOCAL PRICES RECENTLY PAID FOR PROPERTIES AS A COMPARISON WHEN THEY RE-SET ALL THE LOCAL PRICES -- AND -- WHEN Mr Lying-Cheat comes along to ANY given locality and USES his DISHONESTLY OBTAINED [Liar] Loan -- and pays OVER THE ODDS FOR THAT PROPERTY. THEN - OVERNIGHT -- THAT "PRICE" HE PAYS BECOMES THE NORM -- AND EVERYONE ELSE HAS TO MATCH THIS PRICE TO BUY LOCALLY AND FURTHER AFAR!.........



THIS IS THE SECRET WEAPON THE HYPERS, FRAUDSTERS AND VI's HAVE BEEN USING FOR THE LAST 7-9 YEARS+..........

THIS IS ONE HUGE REASON FOR MASSIVE HYPES IN HOUSE "PRICES"..............



I admit it is not the ONLY reason for HPI -- but it is a VERY MAJOR DRIVER of HPI........... No?

Your views FP? Would you be prepared to try and get a discussion about this on air?

If anyone has watched this --- http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=...75&hl=en-GB

and this -- http://video.news.sky.com/skynews/video/?&...270508_0900.flv

AND WOW!!!!!!! THE IMPLICATIONS ARE SEISMIC!!!!!!!! WHY IS THIS STILL GOING ON!?!?!?

So...what are you saying Eric???







P.S. I have 'borrowed' Muttley, too precious to be left lurking on our HD...hope that you don't mind.

This post has been edited by greysquirrel: 15 August 2008 - 06:45 PM

[Harry Monk]

Very interesting and informative interviews, as usual.

[Ah-so]

Happy Teaboy, on Aug 15 2008, 02:53 PM, said:

With NOONE wanting to buy as so much hysteria out there, I think my friend will buy today at a better price than anyone looking to buy at the end of the downturn.

Who is Noone and why is s/he so keen to buy?

[LowestoftBoy]

Just read this entire thread. What is it with Brits, success and beaches? I live by a lovely beach and I'm property poor. You don't need to be a success in property gambling to go to one. Success should not be measured by how often you go to the beach. Once you get there and have a swim etc, it gets boring, anyway.
HT. You spoiled it by bragging about being able to use your sexuality to get attention. I think you lost it there.

[pig]

Financial Planner, on Aug 13 2008, 05:49 AM, said:

If anyone is at all interested in feeding back on the recent broadcasts - See S WHitely top of page 2 - I for one would be glad of it.

Generally found the programmes very interesting, especially the second programme. Internet forums have their use but having 'real' people talking about their financial circumstances offers a better snapshot of what people are thinking and doing within the economy.

I found the views of the two property bulls at the start of the second programme rather curious. The first caller was fully paid up so really had no worries and was looking at pure profit from the rent. The second caller pointed out that in some areas prices are still rising and that its wrong to claim blanket falls everywhere. Both these callers appear reasonably informed and so what surprised me was how logically weak these protests were. Caller no. 1 must know that he is not typical and caller no. 2 must know that his rationale was a little like protesting that as there where many instances of Europeans leading happy lives between 1939 and 1945 its wrong to make a blanket comment that these years were a disaster for Europeans

So really this must be a clash of sentiment, not logic. You take a clear and uncompromising bear position on property - this must 'feel' wrong to somebody who's financial future is now secure as a result of investing in property, and must be annoying to somebody who sees opportunities in the property market much as somebody who sees opportunities in the financial markets. Further to this, while I think the row over your personal circumstances is of interest, I think this stems from the same sentimental refusal to look at the bigger picture.

This leads on to the rather vexed question of whether people like you are helping talk down the market. Personally I agree with much of what you say and applaud your clarity and informed logic. Further to this I also think falling house-prices, however painful, will help repair the distortions in the economy and will in the long run be better for the general population. But saying the market will fall 35% IS talking down the market however honest an opinion it is (this is also how it worked on the way up). People will certainly try to shoot the messenger - but your dilemma is that not only is this understandable but might also be justified.

[Flatdog]

pig, on Aug 17 2008, 05:06 PM, said:

Generally found the programmes very interesting, especially the second programme. Internet forums have their use but having 'real' people talking about their financial circumstances offers a better snapshot of what people are thinking and doing within the economy.

I found the views of the two property bulls at the start of the second programme rather curious. The first caller was fully paid up so really had no worries and was looking at pure profit from the rent. The second caller pointed out that in some areas prices are still rising and that its wrong to claim blanket falls everywhere. Both these callers appear reasonably informed and so what surprised me was how logically weak these protests were. Caller no. 1 must know that he is not typical and caller no. 2 must know that his rationale was a little like protesting that as there where many instances of Europeans leading happy lives between 1939 and 1945 its wrong to make a blanket comment that these years were a disaster for Europeans

So really this must be a clash of sentiment, not logic. You take a clear and uncompromising bear position on property - this must 'feel' wrong to somebody who's financial future is now secure as a result of investing in property, and must be annoying to somebody who sees opportunities in the property market much as somebody who sees opportunities in the financial markets. Further to this, while I think the row over your personal circumstances is of interest, I think this stems from the same sentimental refusal to look at the bigger picture.

This leads on to the rather vexed question of whether people like you are helping talk down the market. Personally I agree with much of what you say and applaud your clarity and informed logic. Further to this I also think falling house-prices, however painful, will help repair the distortions in the economy and will in the long run be better for the general population. But saying the market will fall 35% IS talking down the market however honest an opinion it is (this is also how it worked on the way up). People will certainly try to shoot the messenger - but your dilemma is that not only is this understandable but might also be justified.

Great post pig, says it all IMO.


BTW...do you have a degree in diplomacy?

[Jimmyb]

Happy Teaboy, on Aug 15 2008, 02:53 PM, said:

Thanks for posting back. I disagree with all of the above in the same way I disagreed with all bullish viewpoints in the last 3 years 2005- 2008. I heard rents would only rise, interest rates would stay low, houses will always go up etc, etc. I placed no credibility on their statements and I place no credibility on your forecasts. (this is not personal so don't start yelling)

For me noone knows what's going to happen, people only guess. Its therefore best to dismiss all forecasts as guesses and say to yourself - markets go up, down and sideways - always prepare for the worst and focus your energy on buying well.
This allows me to be completely impartial to what the masses are doing.

For example - my friend and his wife (FTBers) are just in the process of buying a house in SW London now. With NOONE wanting to buy as so much hysteria out there, I think my friend will buy today at a better price than anyone looking to buy at the end of the downturn.
Your above post forecasts prices to have dropped 25% by the bottom. That, I think, can be achieved easily now if you find the right seller. I'm not advocating everyone to go and buy - just wanted to add a different point of view.

I had to reply to this topic and in partiqular the reference to knowing what and where the market will go.

Firstly I think it is fair to say that the economy will dictate if the current rate of 1-2% falls will continue, after years of low inflation and interest rates the world is now getting rising rates and low economic growth, ie the exact opposite. If we go into recesion which the governer of the BofE expects, then unemployment will rise. If then we get a Tory govt then they will cut expendature and so millions of pointless jobs in the public sector will go as well. These events are fairly certain to happen and will probably see house prices fall back into line of 3-4 times earnings (may be lower but we won't go there). These events and the continued fall of between 1-2% falls a month for 18 months will bring many recent buyers seriously out of pocket, this winter will be fairly dreadful for the housing market and everybody in the industry knows it. My brother is a builder struggling to find work and does not expect to get much if anything over the next 6 months and he is usually right.

HT, we don't know what you paid for your properties but I am fairly sure you could not make a profit if you sold today? Am I right?

[dryrot]

LowestoftBoy, on Aug 17 2008, 11:58 AM, said:

Just read this entire thread. What is it with Brits, success and beaches? I live by a lovely beach and I'm property poor. You don't need to be a success in property gambling to go to one. Success should not be measured by how often you go to the beach. Once you get there and have a swim etc, it gets boring, anyway.

Hence my mention of the Amway MLM scam - paid-up Ambots use the cliche of "walking the beaches of the world" after they Go Diamond! (yeah, right, 99.999% of them end up bankrupt, in a house full of overpriced Amway products and surrounded by piles of rip-off "motivational" tapes and books)

EDIT: grammar

This post has been edited by dryrot: 18 August 2008 - 09:42 AM

[heatonfan]

Happy Teaboy, on Aug 12 2008, 11:00 AM, said:

Oh dear. Discussing things on internet forums is a little like arguing with a bunch of 5 year olds. I've had a bit of free time but now I'm going to be busy again so no more posts for me to entertain you.

The site has dangerous advice but its not for me to rally and show the truth. The worst I've found is FPlanner - STR in 2002 and now an expert on the housing market. Please FP - you have no place to be commenting on an industry you know nothing about. Your a complete farce with no credibility.

Others here with over 5000 posts , Firstly stop posting and join the real human world. Secondly it does not make you wise to have a lot of posts. I see no advice worth following on here. Most big posters are I suspect also angry and old. One who's name escapes me (Elizabeth is it) blaming the rising market on her not being able to buy a house. She then admits she's 55 years old. Think that shows what an ar*e she is.

I'll be off to the beach, bricking it I don't think ! Enjoy your rented accommodation and your sad 9-5 lives. x

Your keenness to tell about your lifestyle (and being so defensive about it too) is such that I suspect you are spouting a make-believe version of your life, Happy Teaboy. You sound like a "big time charlie" of the champagne taste - beer money sort who buys a rubbish maisonette on the Costa Blanca and suddenly thinks they are "jet set".

If you want to make it personal to the OP, why not post your company's website so we can verify what a "success" you are for ourselves?

Oh no, of course you won't. But you feel able to comment on an uninformed basis about why someone else might want to rent in 2002. That reeks of shallow self-esteem. Cheer up, girl, not all your friends talk about you behind your back.

[eric pebble]

heatonfan, on Aug 18 2008, 10:41 AM, said:

Your keenness to tell about your lifestyle (and being so defensive about it too) is such that I suspect you are spouting a make-believe version of your life, Happy Teaboy. You sound like a "big time charlie" of the champagne taste - beer money sort who buys a rubbish maisonette on the Costa Blanca and suddenly thinks they are "jet set".

If you want to make it personal to the OP, why not post your company's website so we can verify what a "success" you are for ourselves?

Oh no, of course you won't. But you feel able to comment on an uninformed basis about why someone else might want to rent in 2002. That reeks of shallow self-esteem. Cheer up, girl, not all your friends talk about you behind your back.

[Happy Teaboy]

But you feel able to comment on an uninformed basis about why someone else might want to rent in 2002. That reeks of shallow self-esteem. Cheer up, girl, not all your friends talk about you behind your back.
[/quote]

Because they sold out in 2002 hoping to profit from the market. That was a sh*ite decision. I challenge strongly on it as FP is now in the media as a housing expert dishing out more advice. He needs 2002 prices to undo his decision. Your decision to follow that man though.

and now for the personal bit - you big twa* !

[pig]

Happy Teaboy, on Aug 18 2008, 01:48 PM, said:

But you feel able to comment on an uninformed basis about why someone else might want to rent in 2002. That reeks of shallow self-esteem. Cheer up, girl, not all your friends talk about you behind your back.


Because they sold out in 2002 hoping to profit from the market. That was a sh*ite decision. I challenge strongly on it as FP is now in the media as a housing expert dishing out more advice. He needs 2002 prices to undo his decision. Your decision to follow that man though.

and now for the personal bit - you big twa* !

Oh honestly - grow-up:

1. You aren't talking about 'Financial Planning' you are really talking about gambling on how stupid the market could possibly get. And nobody, but nobody knows the top of the market. If you are 'feeling lucky punk', by all means take the risk that you will know well enough in time to get out.

2. If I had made a packet by 2002 on the housing market I would be no less a 'financial expert' for cashing in, perhaps liberating some cash + investing in something safer or more productive or easier to move around and so on. It would not only depend on my tolerance/aversion to risk but also my personal circumstances and needs.

3. More important than the bull/bear divide is the division between those who believe the market went totally irrational (eg BoE, IMF etc) and those who (still?) believe that it was totally rational (eg many utter morons who made huge profits + many clever but unwise investors who are presently totally screwed) Which side are you ? And - now think about this carefully - if you had an independent financial adviser, which side would you want him/her to be on ?

[eric pebble]

pig, on Aug 18 2008, 08:28 PM, said:

Oh honestly - grow-up:

Ooooooooh! [Frankie Howard]..............

People get very emotional when it comes to property...........

[eric pebble]

eric pebble, on Aug 15 2008, 04:11 PM, said:

Hey FP! Keep on truckin' mate -- keep up the EXCELLENT work - Someone PREPARED to stand tall and tell it as it is........ All good luck to you mate!

One thing, FP: -- Some may think I am obsessed about Liar Loans/Mortgage Fraud - and they'd be right. So what?!

Anyway -- What is your line on Liar Loans? What do you think should be done to stop them?

PLUS -- The MOST IMPORTANT thing to remember about Liar Loans, imo, is that THEY SKEW THE MARKET "PRICE" upwards - EVEN IF ONLY SOME PEOPLE USE THEM:

i.e. Wherever a Liar Loan is taken out to make a purchase - be it a village, a street, a town, a city etc. -- IT HAS A PROFOUND EFFECT ON THE LOCAL MARKET --

BECAUSE - AS THE EAs USE LOCAL PRICES RECENTLY PAID FOR PROPERTIES AS A COMPARISON WHEN THEY RE-SET ALL THE LOCAL PRICES -- AND -- WHEN Mr Lying-Cheat comes along to ANY given locality and USES his DISHONESTLY OBTAINED [Liar] Loan -- and pays OVER THE ODDS FOR THAT PROPERTY. THEN - OVERNIGHT -- THAT "PRICE" HE PAYS BECOMES THE NORM -- AND EVERYONE ELSE HAS TO MATCH THIS PRICE TO BUY LOCALLY AND FURTHER AFAR!.........

THIS IS THE SECRET WEAPON THE HYPERS, FRAUDSTERS AND VI's HAVE BEEN USING FOR THE LAST 7-9 YEARS+..........

THIS IS ONE HUGE REASON FOR MASSIVE HYPES IN HOUSE "PRICES"..............



I admit it is not the ONLY reason for HPI -- but it is a VERY MAJOR DRIVER of HPI........... No?

Your views FP? Would you be prepared to try and get a discussion about this on air?

If anyone has watched this --- http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=...75&hl=en-GB

and this -- http://video.news.sky.com/skynews/video/?&...270508_0900.flv

AND WOW!!!!!!! THE IMPLICATIONS ARE SEISMIC!!!!!!!! WHY IS THIS STILL GOING ON!?!?!?

Post from back in the Summer -- still holds true......

This post has been edited by eric pebble: 26 September 2008 - 12:13 PM

[tumi]

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