[Zanu Bob]

DrBubb, on Jul 27 2008, 09:01 AM, said:

Good point.
It could be a great subject for a podcast (on CW Radio) or a future video.

It's too early to press the point, but here's another possible subject:
City Centre Flats: Disaster Or Bright Future ?
see HPC thread- http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=79862

I feel that if we understand clearly where things have gone wrong,then we can ascertain how they'll be sorted out.Most of us are well out of our depth on this issue but somewhat ahead of the general popualtion possibly.

city centre future,very dark until they become dirt cheap and jsut before there is a big population shift back to city centres due to fuel costs

[aliveandkicking]

DrBubb, on Jul 27 2008, 04:36 PM, said:

if Oil hits $400 in 2010-12, as I expect

That kind of price increase will surely create a massive decrease in peoples willingness to pay regardless of their demand.

Fewer rooms will be heated, more clothes will be worn etc etc. Woolen carpets will return to profitability. Woolen clothing generally will be more fashionable. Currently wool is just a sideline of meat production for many farmers whereas it used to be the mainstay.

Demand for products is related to ability to access money to pay for products too.

The current demands of the world are related to a credit bubble.

At that kind of price there are other alternative fuels to consider even if they are messy/hazardous

I cannot grasp how oil go from 40 dollars to $400 in such a small amount of time.

The only way is if the US dollar declines massively further.

[Ferret]

DrBubb, on Jul 29 2008, 04:48 PM, said:

Yes. The dollar would quickly lose a big share of its value in my scenario

Be prepared for a pleasant shock to come, never right off a wounded Wolf or Meercat.

[aliveandkicking]

Ferret, on Jul 30 2008, 01:45 AM, said:

Be prepared for a pleasant shock to come, never right off a wounded Wolf or Meercat.

Looks like the bottom is getting near in US house prices. Reality in Financials. Not saying its going to be a recovery from here but the dollar is hugely sold off surely? a 20% recovery in the USD from here at 1.56 only takes it back to levels seen around 2 years ago. You have also got to consider that US house price increases are not as high as the UK or France and many other countries *and* the US has had all the dollar depreciation too. If people begin to sense dollar bottoming for now anyway then inwards investment is going to crank up. To consider further dollar falls from here you have to go to social breakdown and a countrywide decay rather than see that many other places have their own problems. Inflation *is* high in europe. Whats more if you fly over the USA it often appears like one big farm so whatever problems it has its not entirely bad!

[redwing]

aliveandkicking, on Jul 30 2008, 06:38 AM, said:

Looks like the bottom is getting near in US house prices. Reality in Financials. Not saying its going to be a recovery from here but the dollar is hugely sold off surely? a 20% recovery in the USD from here at 1.56 only takes it back to levels seen around 2 years ago. You have also got to consider that US house price increases are not as high as the UK or France and many other countries *and* the US has had all the dollar depreciation too. If people begin to sense dollar bottoming for now anyway then inwards investment is going to crank up. To consider further dollar falls from here you have to go to social breakdown and a countrywide decay rather than see that many other places have their own problems. Inflation *is* high in europe. Whats more if you fly over the USA it often appears like one big farm so whatever problems it has its not entirely bad!

Really? The impression I got from commentary about the latest Case/Shiller index is that they are about half way there.

This post has been edited by redwing: 30 July 2008 - 07:23 AM

[aliveandkicking]

redwing, on Jul 30 2008, 07:22 AM, said:

Really? The impression I got from commentary about the latest Case/Shiller index is that they are about half way there.

At some point the bottom becomes more visible and it makes little difference if you buy then or you wait till the bottom is reached and there is a bounce. Either way if you intend buying a few properties you can begin buying once you feel a bottom is being neared. If you are buying and renting you get the rent on the way to the bottom and rent on the way back to where you bought. So i am talking about being a trader perhaps. I think we are reaching the point where a well priced offer that is accepted can reach a price that is near the bottom and you will be fine in future years. The current collapse started in earnest about one year ago? so if the collapse continues at the current rate only one more year of massive falls remains. Then its going to be bumping along the bottom and confidance will return and silly offers will not be accepted as perceptions of bottomness increase. Meanwhile there is soon to be a massive bailout of mortgage lending. It is all very bottomy to me! I just see bottoms! There was hysteria on the way up and hysteria on the way down. nobody can time it perfectly.

[redwing]

Quote

At some point the bottom becomes more visible and it makes little difference if you buy then or you wait till the bottom is reached and there is a bounce.

I'm sorry I misintrepeted your earlier post:

Quote

Looks like the bottom is getting near in US house prices.

I didn't realise that near meant visible. A bit like the sun, and the moon. Both visible and near.

[aliveandkicking]

redwing, on Jul 30 2008, 12:01 PM, said:

I'm sorry I misintrepeted your earlier post:



I didn't realise that near meant visible. A bit like the sun, and the moon. Both visible and near.

We can agree that we are always nearing the bottom unless we are static or moving away from it.

Obviously if a person is in the deflationary camp they are not looking at buying

But if you are in the inflationary camp it could be a way to preserve your wealth as banks fail and everything else generally goes down hill.

Wealth preservation seems important here *also* rather than being clever about predicting the future. I want it both ways just like anybody else but i see inflation rather than longer term deflation. Stagflation or something like it. I can work and renovate and carry on living and do ok meanwhile.

I was also talking about the US dollar and factors that could cause it to bounce back from the current doomsday levels

I tried this pessimistic lark for a few years and it has not been good for my health! I want to see a brighter future now We had visibility on all of this stuff and now its time to begin looking to the visibility of the recovery

[yield]

aliveandkicking, on Jul 31 2008, 08:07 AM, said:

We can agree that we are always nearing the bottom unless we are static or moving away from it.

Obviously if a person is in the deflationary camp they are not looking at buying

But if you are in the inflationary camp it could be a way to preserve your wealth as banks fail and everything else generally goes down hill.

Wealth preservation seems important here *also* rather than being clever about predicting the future. I want it both ways just like anybody else but i see inflation rather than longer term deflation. Stagflation or something like it. I can work and renovate and carry on living and do ok meanwhile.

I was also talking about the US dollar and factors that could cause it to bounce back from the current doomsday levels

I tried this pessimistic lark for a few years and it has not been good for my health! I want to see a brighter future now We had visibility on all of this stuff and now its time to begin looking to the visibility of the recovery

I agree that we are closer to the bottom for US house prices, I think 1 year tops left to hit the bottom. What areas do you think are the best for investing in?

[redwing]

Aliveandkicking

Quote

I tried this pessimistic lark for a few years and it has not been good for my health! I want to see a brighter future now We had visibility on all of this stuff and now its time to begin looking to the visibility of the recovery

That's where we differ.

I'm not interested in recovery. In fact, in an ideal world we wouldn't have recovery if that means that housing becomes a speculative market again.

However, I will be buying at some time in the future. I am not at all sure when that is going to be. The time will come when 1. prices are affordable to me and 2. we are enough of a way towards the bottom that I don't regret buying.

Quite frankly, I can't see this point in the future. I don't think it's visible yet. If it was visible then I could stick all my savings into appropriately long savings bonds to maximise interest in the knowledge that they wouldn't mature too early or too late.

[aliveandkicking]

Dispite my hopes and dreams i know i am very worried at the moment.

And while i might intellectually believe that inflation will be what happens i cant rule out some kind of demand distruction that is just horrible to think about

My own situation is very different to most peoples. I am still interested in buying the right kind of property in the right kind of location and more or less i am going to be ok either way. Owning land that you can touch and grow something on feels much safer to me than any other kind of thing that might not be there when you next look for it.

We all have to do what seems best to each one of us. There are no simple solutions now. Dr Bubbs Harrison cycle probably sums it up. Amongst the rubble bargains will emerge that make sense and it seems we are almost at that point.

[The Picador]

DrBubb, on Aug 3 2008, 04:42 PM, said:

5,000 DOWNLOADS IS WITHIN SIGHT NOW

Latest: Hits (4961)

Wow