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Uk Property: How Low Can It Go


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#31 Laura

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Posted 10 July 2008 - 11:48 AM

Well done. Thanks, Laura.


My pleasure.

Where do I send the invoice?
..................................
Ubi bene ibi patria


“…it is difficult enough to convince some people that the economy is in fact not providing the security they desire, but is actually destroying their future completely. To explain to them that this is deliberate, that the economy is designed to self-destruct, that is another prospect altogether…

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 25/7/2010

#32 Speak&Spell

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Posted 10 July 2008 - 12:27 PM

We need more podcasts like this. Nice to see people putting their money where their mouths are and renting too like moneyweeks editor....

#33 juvenal

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Posted 10 July 2008 - 10:25 PM

Great listen. This should kill any remaining property rampers stone dead. But how do you get it out to the bigger audience?
'And while I live, no fool or noble knave
Shall walk this world, in credit, to his grave..'

'The pension system has been a very nice gravy train for all of those involved except for those paying into it.'

'Let's see if we can get it for the asking price..' Kirstie Allsop

"Be under no illusion. You will not escape the net..." S'rAlan Sugar

Sex, drugs and sausage rolls...

The House of Lords: 'The Ermine Vermin....'

#34 wren

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Posted 11 July 2008 - 01:24 AM

An excellent show. Thanks Frizzers and all the interviewees.
Video at guardian.co.uk: Gold for Food in Zimbabwe.
Video at YouTube: Buying groceries with silver in California.
Energy Bulletin A daily news site about oil, natural gas, food, transportation and their economic and social ramifications.

Rebullion; 'The act of withdrawing all your money from the bank and putting it in gold.' - wonderpup, 24 Dec 2009

#35 Frizzers

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Posted 11 July 2008 - 11:15 AM

Test

#36 joey

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Posted 11 July 2008 - 11:21 AM

"How Low Can It Go"

Well if you work out that the average family mortgage/rent affordability is £ 500- £ 600 a month. This would equate to
£ 80K to £ 90K loan over 25 years at 7% with paying some principal off . Seems we have a long way to go before FTBs will flood the market again, remember last CRASH it took about 3 years even after bottoming out before confidence was restored and this coincided with the IT boom . Cheap Credit and Investors have created a Unsustainable Bubble which has now burst.

Edited by joey, 11 July 2008 - 11:21 AM.


#37 Laura

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Posted 11 July 2008 - 04:25 PM

Test


Test indeed ;)

It's now attached to my sig over at ykw




The things I do for little or no reward. It must be the way I was brought up. "Always put other people first child, if everyone did that it would be a fine world..........As you sew so shall you reap...................There's never been a better time to buy"
..................................
Ubi bene ibi patria


“…it is difficult enough to convince some people that the economy is in fact not providing the security they desire, but is actually destroying their future completely. To explain to them that this is deliberate, that the economy is designed to self-destruct, that is another prospect altogether…

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 25/7/2010

#38 Frizzers

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Posted 11 July 2008 - 07:37 PM

Cool .

What is ykw?

#39 SleepyHead

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Posted 11 July 2008 - 07:59 PM

Although I've already posted on the excellence of the show, I've got a question kinda like the title of this thread.

The majority of forecasts seem to now be around the -30 to -40% range. As a FTBer, myself and most of my friends who routinely debate this at work and the pub are all in the position where we cannot see being able to afford a normal repayment mortgage even with prices falling by those kind of amounts. The consensus for us is that we need at least 50 to 60% falls to have a hope.

Edited by Khayl, 12 July 2008 - 09:22 AM.


#40 Laura

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Posted 12 July 2008 - 09:41 AM

Cool .

What is ykw?


Sorry Frizzers, my age is showing again

You Know What

or

You Know Where

ie MSE


Will we only speak code one day??

________________

Khayl

You will get your 60% & more.

Edited by Laura, 12 July 2008 - 09:43 AM.

..................................
Ubi bene ibi patria


“…it is difficult enough to convince some people that the economy is in fact not providing the security they desire, but is actually destroying their future completely. To explain to them that this is deliberate, that the economy is designed to self-destruct, that is another prospect altogether…

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 25/7/2010

#41 SleepyHead

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Posted 12 July 2008 - 11:54 AM

Khayl

You will get your 60% & more.


God I hope so. I guess saying 30% falls in the mainstream media is about as far as people can stick their neck out at the moment.

Yet another example of HPC.co.uk giving me hope! Thanks Laura!

average house 180k average salary 23k-median.currently 7.82 times long term average 3.5 = 80.5k.......................

and thats if the average salary doesn't go down into the recession.


Beautifully clear way of putting it. You're so right. Thanks Reaper!

#42 FTBagain

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Posted 12 July 2008 - 03:47 PM

average house 180k average salary 23k-median.currently 7.82 times long term average 3.5 = 80.5k.......................

and thats if the average salary doesn't go down into the recession.


I've been doing the same kind of calculations for Mrs FTBagain.

If you take a slightly bullish set of numbers say salary at £26k at 3.5 multiple you get £91k, or with two salaries at 2.5 multiple you get £130k. These would be modestly above average mortgages in a sensible market at todays wage levels.

Now compare these figure against the prices for the average UK home, widely regarded as the classic 3 bed semi. Here in Bath, which has very little going for it in economic terms as far as I can see (some MOD establishments that could well be closed down in the nearish future and tourism). Semis in Bath are going for anything between £200k and £400k. Median price from what I saw yesterday on Rightmove is in the region of £250k to £300k. To get even close they are going to have to fall by 50%.

The chances are, of course, the market will over shoot.

That takes us into the 60 to 70% drops over 3 to 4 years from peak. We are nearly a year in already so the market has got to get moving. Maybe that is why we are seeing such big MoM drops at the moment. If the market is to achieve such big total drops over the normal cycle period then it is going to have to drop quickly.
It is a truely saddening situation when I find myself hoping for economic hard times, just so I can stand a chance of buying a house for a fair price.

<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->In short although I would certainly say that the market is full of ignorant people, who just happened to be in the right asset class at the right time and have made a lot of money, there is also a calculated and measured nurturing of the economy going on by the mainstream press. The problem is that you can not hold back the numbers forever.<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

#43 Frizzers

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Posted 12 July 2008 - 05:23 PM

average house 180k average salary 23k-median.currently 7.82 times long term average 3.5 = 80.5k.......................

and thats if the average salary doesn't go down into the recession.


Possibly more as those with average salary will have to get out of debt, weather credit crunch etc . As the system purges we will overshoot to the downside.

Laura LOL

#44 Laura

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Posted 16 July 2008 - 09:06 AM

Bump


MSE wiped my sig because it was live.

Rules must be obeyed, regardless.

God how I loathe low-level system servers.

Let 'em vanish up their own squeaking posteriors; I'm watching this one from afar <_<
..................................
Ubi bene ibi patria


“…it is difficult enough to convince some people that the economy is in fact not providing the security they desire, but is actually destroying their future completely. To explain to them that this is deliberate, that the economy is designed to self-destruct, that is another prospect altogether…

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 25/7/2010

#45 zamo

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Posted 16 July 2008 - 01:08 PM

bumpidy bump




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