House Price Crash forum: When Do You Reckon Will Be A Good Time To Buy - House Price Crash forum

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When Do You Reckon Will Be A Good Time To Buy Obviously not now! Rate Topic: ***** 1 Votes

Poll: When do you reckon is a good time to buy... (193 member(s) have cast votes)

When do you reckon?

  1. I'm gonna buy now. I love the thrill of going down on the rollercoaster... (3 votes [1.55%])

    Percentage of vote: 1.55%

  2. OK fair enough. for the bulls. Nowish. I think that its actually cant get much worse and there are bargains out there (2 votes [1.04%])

    Percentage of vote: 1.04%

  3. 1 year (21 votes [10.88%])

    Percentage of vote: 10.88%

  4. 2 years (65 votes [33.68%])

    Percentage of vote: 33.68%

  5. 3 years (68 votes [35.23%])

    Percentage of vote: 35.23%

  6. After the 2012 (why give yourself the stress of home ownership if its all going to end?) (34 votes [17.62%])

    Percentage of vote: 17.62%

Vote

#16 User is offline   Backseat Economist 

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Posted 06 June 2008 - 06:54 AM

Will take about three years to get back to some sort of sensible multiple and then at least another three years to deal with the fallout to the wider economy.
I really have got 2014/15 pencilled in as the time to start looking. Anyone who thinks this is gonna last a couple of yrs tops is deluding themselves. But armageddon will be avoided - 99.96% guaranteed. :P

GT.
"You come from nothing, you go back to nothing, so what have you lost? NOTHING!!" - Monty Python

#17 User is offline   Second Time Around 

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Posted 06 June 2008 - 06:59 AM

View Postuncle_monty, on Jun 6 2008, 06:41 AM, said:

3-5 years. After the initial downward lurch (15-20% this year), this will be a long, slow and painful correction. In the end I fully expect to see a 50-70% HPC.

Monty


Agreed. We (Mrs STA and I) have built a strategy around buying at the bottom of the market whatever that is. I can't see that happening in the next three years; 2012/3 is likely to be the earliest time to start thinking about buying based on previous crashes, but it could be a much longer process than last time. We are happy to wait longer as the prices will go down further and will enable us to buy cheaper and have more cash to spare for our retirement.

I am still thinking about a 40-50% nominal price correction is likely, but am slowly adjusting to the idea it could be worse than this and we will see an unprecedented collapse in residential property prices as a result of a Depression, but it is difficult to predict all the policy responses and how people are likely to respond at this stage.

#18 User is offline   Bloo Loo 

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Posted 06 June 2008 - 07:04 AM

Obviously, the time to buy will be when the banks have got mortgages on offer. Then the HPI will start again.
WARNING

Your
country is at risk
if you
do not keep up repayments
on a gilt or other loan secured on it





#19 Guest_muttley_*

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Posted 06 June 2008 - 07:15 AM

View PostDrBubb, on Jun 6 2008, 02:29 AM, said:

I said years ago: 2010-2013.

Why change a good forecast?

You're being a bit selective with your forecasts there DrB. You used to argue that 2006 would be a good time to buy.

View PostDrBubb, on Dec 24 2004, 09:10 AM, said:

" buy investment property in the south east if 10% gross yield occurs"

How likely is that?
I reckon you will need to wait for 2006


#20 User is offline   Elizabeth 

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Posted 06 June 2008 - 05:22 PM

View PostBloo Loo, on Jun 6 2008, 08:04 AM, said:

Obviously, the time to buy will be when the banks have got mortgages on offer. Then the HPI will start again.


Thats when some big economy (read Japan) wants to manage a deflationary programme and they start handing out 0% corporate money like sweeties again.

View PostHara, on Jun 6 2008, 01:05 AM, said:

I must admit, that is one of my biggest worries. Having no real assets could be a big mistake if inflation takes off.


But that is the whole point about interest rates. Interest rates need to stay above inflation to manage money supply. So unless we had a hyperinflationary meltdown (of the Robert Mugabe murders 1/2 the pop, and gives all the farms to his urban mates hence starving the other 1/2, then rigs the election by so badly beating the two people left to vote that they can't turn up at the polling booth type) then what you will do is bung your money progressively into the highest interest rate account and it should stay just ahead of the inflationary figures - in 1987 I was getting 18% - anyway, don't worry, just go with the wave...

This post has been edited by Elizabeth: 06 June 2008 - 05:36 PM



#21 User is offline   cartimandua51 

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Posted 06 June 2008 - 05:27 PM

Am in the middle of buying. Have found a house we really like, can afford, mortgage free. Intend to be there 10-15 years. Sod the downturn, life's too short.
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#22 User is offline   Elizabeth 

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Posted 06 June 2008 - 05:35 PM

View Postcartimandua51, on Jun 6 2008, 06:27 PM, said:

Am in the middle of buying. Have found a house we really like, can afford, mortgage free. Intend to be there 10-15 years. Sod the downturn, life's too short.


Thats great :D


#23 User is offline   A.steve 

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Posted 06 June 2008 - 05:41 PM

View PostHara, on Jun 6 2008, 12:58 AM, said:

Voted having thought 18 months, then saw this comment.


I think 18 months for those who would otherwise be ready to buy now (i.e. have a substantial deposit ~50%)

I expect the decline to be substantial and drawn out... I expect prices to fall in nominal terms for three years - though the lion's share will from now-on. Thereafter I expect prices to be flat or fall very slightly for a further 6 or 7 years.

This means that for those who do not have substantial deposits, it will be best to wait for significantly longer.

#24 User is offline   sbn 

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Posted 06 June 2008 - 05:48 PM

View Postmrcutegurlzz, on Jun 6 2008, 01:01 AM, said:

so I can build a masterbatorium for jerking off in

I believe the correct terms are W4nkatorium or Masturbarium. Jizznasium is an acceptable regional variant Materbatorium just makes you sound stupid like.

"You'll find the toiletlobby just through the hall - if you reach the cookchen you've gone too far"

Please let's not get lazy with our wonderful language - It makes me SOOOO ANGRY

Lots of people will be visiting this site now the HPC is underway - and we risk looking like a bunch of idiots who cant spell proper.

This post has been edited by sbn: 06 June 2008 - 05:54 PM

House prices propped up with unemployment, inflation, debt, poverty, moral hazard, social decay, infrastructure decay, war, corruption, misery, greed,
OF COURSE ITS WORTH IT!!!! IM NOT GIVING IT AWAY!!!!

#25 User is offline   MiCasaSuCasa 

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Posted 06 June 2008 - 06:08 PM

It's going to have to be when the last of the highly indebted come off their teaser-rate interest only mortgage deals - 3 years + from the peak...around winter 2010 (or spring 2011 when they get repossessed!)

This post has been edited by MiCasaSuCasa: 06 June 2008 - 06:10 PM


#26 User is offline   mrcutegurlzz 

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Posted 06 June 2008 - 06:22 PM

View Postsbn, on Jun 6 2008, 06:48 PM, said:

I believe the correct terms are W4nkatorium or Masturbarium. Jizznasium is an acceptable regional variant Materbatorium just makes you sound stupid like.

"You'll find the toiletlobby just through the hall - if you reach the cookchen you've gone too far"

Please let's not get lazy with our wonderful language - It makes me SOOOO ANGRY

Lots of people will be visiting this site now the HPC is underway - and we risk looking like a bunch of idiots who cant spell proper.


ok, but i dont think i can afford one anyway.

i think instead i'll build a small observatory.
Solve Me:

Currently Renting

Savings 53k

Current strategy: Waiting 2 years and watching my life fade, counting grey hairs (boo hoo, I used to be young), trying to meet cute american girl so I can move to Iowa and get a 4 bed house on 1 acre of land on my credit card ($15k). Trying to proove categorically that god hates me.

Hates: Landlords and other death camp associates.

#27 User is offline   Wantbell 

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Posted 06 June 2008 - 06:33 PM

I think the time to buy is when you can afford to pay for a mortgage for a house that meets your needs and leaves you enough money to pay for all the bills and a little bit of quality in life.

Currently I bring home the only income with a partner and 2 kids to support - so for me the best time to buy will be never!

#28 User is offline   godless 

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Posted 06 June 2008 - 07:18 PM

2 to 3 years :huh:
Short & sweet just simply isn't good enough!
I was a coke addict but I managed to cut it down to 2 cans a week!
Schadenfraude is like a box of chocolates, you always want more but you know you're gonna feel sick!
Probability says 50% of all quotes are approximately 1/3 longer than the previous one.....

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#29 User is offline   hedgefunded 

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Posted 06 June 2008 - 08:07 PM

View PostHara, on Jun 6 2008, 01:05 AM, said:

I must admit, that is one of my biggest worries. Having no real assets could be a big mistake if inflation takes off.


Doesn't matter though does it?
As long as your funds are losing value at a lesser rate than the property you are going to buy then you'll be quids in.

#30 User is offline   Not Long Now 

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Posted 06 June 2008 - 08:10 PM

I think its a bit too simplistic to put a timescale on it for most people.

I'm gonna wait until I see a decent property in a decent area at a price I deem acceptable.

Might be 9 month, might be 18.

I'll need to factor into that job security, (which at the moment - isn't very secure!).

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