[Backseat Economist]

Will take about three years to get back to some sort of sensible multiple and then at least another three years to deal with the fallout to the wider economy.
I really have got 2014/15 pencilled in as the time to start looking. Anyone who thinks this is gonna last a couple of yrs tops is deluding themselves. But armageddon will be avoided - 99.96% guaranteed.

GT.

[Second Time Around]

uncle_monty, on Jun 6 2008, 06:41 AM, said:

3-5 years. After the initial downward lurch (15-20% this year), this will be a long, slow and painful correction. In the end I fully expect to see a 50-70% HPC.

Monty

Agreed. We (Mrs STA and I) have built a strategy around buying at the bottom of the market whatever that is. I can't see that happening in the next three years; 2012/3 is likely to be the earliest time to start thinking about buying based on previous crashes, but it could be a much longer process than last time. We are happy to wait longer as the prices will go down further and will enable us to buy cheaper and have more cash to spare for our retirement.

I am still thinking about a 40-50% nominal price correction is likely, but am slowly adjusting to the idea it could be worse than this and we will see an unprecedented collapse in residential property prices as a result of a Depression, but it is difficult to predict all the policy responses and how people are likely to respond at this stage.

[Bloo Loo]

Obviously, the time to buy will be when the banks have got mortgages on offer. Then the HPI will start again.

[Elizabeth]

Bloo Loo, on Jun 6 2008, 08:04 AM, said:

Obviously, the time to buy will be when the banks have got mortgages on offer. Then the HPI will start again.

Thats when some big economy (read Japan) wants to manage a deflationary programme and they start handing out 0% corporate money like sweeties again.

Hara, on Jun 6 2008, 01:05 AM, said:

I must admit, that is one of my biggest worries. Having no real assets could be a big mistake if inflation takes off.

But that is the whole point about interest rates. Interest rates need to stay above inflation to manage money supply. So unless we had a hyperinflationary meltdown (of the Robert Mugabe murders 1/2 the pop, and gives all the farms to his urban mates hence starving the other 1/2, then rigs the election by so badly beating the two people left to vote that they can't turn up at the polling booth type) then what you will do is bung your money progressively into the highest interest rate account and it should stay just ahead of the inflationary figures - in 1987 I was getting 18% - anyway, don't worry, just go with the wave...

This post has been edited by Elizabeth: 06 June 2008 - 05:36 PM

[cartimandua51]

Am in the middle of buying. Have found a house we really like, can afford, mortgage free. Intend to be there 10-15 years. Sod the downturn, life's too short.

[Elizabeth]

cartimandua51, on Jun 6 2008, 06:27 PM, said:

Am in the middle of buying. Have found a house we really like, can afford, mortgage free. Intend to be there 10-15 years. Sod the downturn, life's too short.

Thats great

[A.steve]

Hara, on Jun 6 2008, 12:58 AM, said:

Voted having thought 18 months, then saw this comment.

I think 18 months for those who would otherwise be ready to buy now (i.e. have a substantial deposit ~50%)

I expect the decline to be substantial and drawn out... I expect prices to fall in nominal terms for three years - though the lion's share will from now-on. Thereafter I expect prices to be flat or fall very slightly for a further 6 or 7 years.

This means that for those who do not have substantial deposits, it will be best to wait for significantly longer.

[sbn]

mrcutegurlzz, on Jun 6 2008, 01:01 AM, said:

so I can build a masterbatorium for jerking off in

I believe the correct terms are W4nkatorium or Masturbarium. Jizznasium is an acceptable regional variant Materbatorium just makes you sound stupid like.

"You'll find the toiletlobby just through the hall - if you reach the cookchen you've gone too far"

Please let's not get lazy with our wonderful language - It makes me SOOOO ANGRY

Lots of people will be visiting this site now the HPC is underway - and we risk looking like a bunch of idiots who cant spell proper.

This post has been edited by sbn: 06 June 2008 - 05:54 PM

[MiCasaSuCasa]

It's going to have to be when the last of the highly indebted come off their teaser-rate interest only mortgage deals - 3 years + from the peak...around winter 2010 (or spring 2011 when they get repossessed!)

This post has been edited by MiCasaSuCasa: 06 June 2008 - 06:10 PM

[mrcutegurlzz]

sbn, on Jun 6 2008, 06:48 PM, said:

I believe the correct terms are W4nkatorium or Masturbarium. Jizznasium is an acceptable regional variant Materbatorium just makes you sound stupid like.

"You'll find the toiletlobby just through the hall - if you reach the cookchen you've gone too far"

Please let's not get lazy with our wonderful language - It makes me SOOOO ANGRY

Lots of people will be visiting this site now the HPC is underway - and we risk looking like a bunch of idiots who cant spell proper.

ok, but i dont think i can afford one anyway.

i think instead i'll build a small observatory.

[Wantbell]

I think the time to buy is when you can afford to pay for a mortgage for a house that meets your needs and leaves you enough money to pay for all the bills and a little bit of quality in life.

Currently I bring home the only income with a partner and 2 kids to support - so for me the best time to buy will be never!

[godless]

2 to 3 years

[hedgefunded]

Hara, on Jun 6 2008, 01:05 AM, said:

I must admit, that is one of my biggest worries. Having no real assets could be a big mistake if inflation takes off.

Doesn't matter though does it?
As long as your funds are losing value at a lesser rate than the property you are going to buy then you'll be quids in.

[Not Long Now]

I think its a bit too simplistic to put a timescale on it for most people.

I'm gonna wait until I see a decent property in a decent area at a price I deem acceptable.

Might be 9 month, might be 18.

I'll need to factor into that job security, (which at the moment - isn't very secure!).