Sign In »
Register Now!
Help
This topic is locked
Posted 05 June 2008 - 10:31 PM
Just a little poll to check out buying sentiment. Contrarian is good.
When Do You Reckon Will Be A Good Time To Buy
Obviously not now!
Rate Topic:
1 Votes
Back to top
MultiQuote
#2
- HPC Regular
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 394
- Joined: 28-July 06
Posted 05 June 2008 - 11:51 PM
I think 18 months time but voted for 2 years
I think the market will move quicker than in the 1990's because of the size of the disconnect between prices and earnings this time round, the size of BTL market, the effect of information about prices etc on the internet and finally the rapid departure of all the sub prime lenders and specilist lenders. The repossession numbers will be lower in part due to BMV buyer stepping in but possession proceeding will be higher than in the 1990s.
I think the market will move quicker than in the 1990's because of the size of the disconnect between prices and earnings this time round, the size of BTL market, the effect of information about prices etc on the internet and finally the rapid departure of all the sub prime lenders and specilist lenders. The repossession numbers will be lower in part due to BMV buyer stepping in but possession proceeding will be higher than in the 1990s.
#3
- HPC Veteran
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 1,296
- Joined: 23-March 08
Posted 05 June 2008 - 11:58 PM
The Ginger Winger, on Jun 6 2008, 12:51 AM, said:
I think 18 months time but voted for 2 years
Voted having thought 18 months, then saw this comment. I think Xmas '09 will be very quiet on the market and you'll have a good chance of haggling more off than you think before the "spring bounce".
#4
- HPC Regular
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 374
- Joined: 27-April 08
Posted 06 June 2008 - 12:01 AM
I put 2012 because daly I think this is going to drag on and on. Its going to be painful but I think prices will continue to drop for 4 years. I'm just looking at the graph on the front of the HPC site and mentally extrapolating how long the crash lasted last time. Its like a giant game of chicken. Sad thing is this is my life im wasting. I just wish the boom haddened happended and that i could focus on having a life. Those evil BTL's have alot to awnser for.
Anyone read Hitch hikers guide to the galaxy? It starts off with them trying to knock down aurther Dents House, and so Ford Prefect ?? Reasons with him to go to the pub on the grounds that he's going to lie in front of the bulldover, so his house is safe, and so on those grounds he might as well assume hes doing that etc etc and go to the pub. Not sure of the parralell, but why cant home owners understand that house prices are going to crash by 80% and by holding out they are hurting other people, like in a hostage situation, and so they had better sell now for 20% true value and alleviate the suffering of people like me, ELSE PAY THE TRUE COST OF OUR RATH!!! etc etc etc.
Man, I want a spare room so I can build a masterbatorium for jerking off in with pictures of girls all over the walls and soothing jerking off music and plasma screens showning el neato porn feeds etc etc, and web cams and a hot line to the Escort Agency.
Anyone read Hitch hikers guide to the galaxy? It starts off with them trying to knock down aurther Dents House, and so Ford Prefect ?? Reasons with him to go to the pub on the grounds that he's going to lie in front of the bulldover, so his house is safe, and so on those grounds he might as well assume hes doing that etc etc and go to the pub. Not sure of the parralell, but why cant home owners understand that house prices are going to crash by 80% and by holding out they are hurting other people, like in a hostage situation, and so they had better sell now for 20% true value and alleviate the suffering of people like me, ELSE PAY THE TRUE COST OF OUR RATH!!! etc etc etc.
Man, I want a spare room so I can build a masterbatorium for jerking off in with pictures of girls all over the walls and soothing jerking off music and plasma screens showning el neato porn feeds etc etc, and web cams and a hot line to the Escort Agency.
Solve Me:
Currently Renting
Savings £53k
Current strategy: Waiting 2 years and watching my life fade, counting grey hairs (boo hoo, I used to be young), trying to meet cute american girl so I can move to Iowa and get a 4 bed house on 1 acre of land on my credit card ($15k). Trying to proove categorically that god hates me.
Hates: Landlords and other death camp associates.
Currently Renting
Savings £53k
Current strategy: Waiting 2 years and watching my life fade, counting grey hairs (boo hoo, I used to be young), trying to meet cute american girl so I can move to Iowa and get a 4 bed house on 1 acre of land on my credit card ($15k). Trying to proove categorically that god hates me.
Hates: Landlords and other death camp associates.
#5
- HPC Regular
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 430
- Joined: 17-June 07
Posted 06 June 2008 - 12:01 AM
You guys are staring into the tea leaves which is fine to a point. But IMHO if you need somewhere to live then the right time to buy a house is now while sellers are spooked & before inflation dents your cash savings.
#6
- HPC Veteran
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 2,707
- Joined: 18-September 06
Posted 06 June 2008 - 12:03 AM
The decline will last five years min.
#7
- HPC Veteran
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 1,296
- Joined: 23-March 08
Posted 06 June 2008 - 12:05 AM
levoleurdefruits, on Jun 6 2008, 01:01 AM, said:
You guys are staring into the tea leaves which is fine to a point. But IMHO if you need somewhere to live then the right time to buy a house is now while sellers are spooked & before inflation dents your cash savings.
I must admit, that is one of my biggest worries. Having no real assets could be a big mistake if inflation takes off.
#8
- Member in Poor Standing
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 8,360
- Joined: 21-April 07
Posted 06 June 2008 - 12:14 AM
I said three years, not because I think things will be on the up by then, but because renting will mean the possibility of being evicted and having to abandon food crops 
"If the economic relationships between nations are not, by one means or another, brought fairly close to balance, then there is no set of financial arrangements that can rescue the world from the impoverishing results of chaos" -- Geoffrey Crowther
#9
- HPC Senior Veteran
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 3,176
- Joined: 10-January 07
Posted 06 June 2008 - 12:32 AM
I have gone for 2 years but thats a guess.
"They bought their tickets. They knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash!"
Airplane, 1980
Airplane, 1980
#10
- HPC Veteran
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 2,409
- Joined: 03-May 07
Posted 06 June 2008 - 12:42 AM
Hara, on Jun 6 2008, 12:58 AM, said:
Voted having thought 18 months, then saw this comment. I think Xmas '09 will be very quiet on the market and you'll have a good chance of haggling more off than you think before the "spring bounce".
I think you can forget the idea of any kind of bounce before 2011.
[
#11
- HPC Veteran
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 2,409
- Joined: 03-May 07
Posted 06 June 2008 - 12:49 AM
levoleurdefruits, on Jun 6 2008, 01:01 AM, said:
You guys are staring into the tea leaves which is fine to a point. But IMHO if you need somewhere to live then the right time to buy a house is now while sellers are spooked & before inflation dents your cash savings.
Sellers may be spooked but they are not slashing prices accordingly. If you need somwhere to live, rent. If you are worried about inflation either look for a good investment (which involves a bit of work) or go out and blow your savings while they are still worth something
.
[
#12
- STR :-)
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 9,989
- Joined: 26-March 07
Posted 06 June 2008 - 05:14 AM
Based on the last GC I thought 6 years but the BTL-effect has made me think it will be quicker.
I went for 4 but, like the vulture fund poll, there's a lot of bias inherent in the banding!
I went for 4 but, like the vulture fund poll, there's a lot of bias inherent in the banding!
Honorary truck driver.
#13
- HPC Veteran
-
- Group: New Members
- Posts: 1,277
- Joined: 13-December 06
Posted 06 June 2008 - 05:41 AM
3-5 years. After the initial downward lurch (15-20% this year), this will be a long, slow and painful correction. In the end I fully expect to see a 50-70% HPC.
Monty
Monty
<!--coloro:#FF0000--><span style="color:#FF0000"><!--/coloro--><b>"Credit Default Swaps.........like buying insurance on the Titanic from someone on the Titanic". - Nassim Taleb, October 27 2008.</b><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc-->
<b>".........we are currently in a state of wealth destruction. So if you can preserve your wealth in those conditions, you're doing very well." - George Soros, May 13 2008</b>
<!--coloro:#000080--><span style="color:#000080"><!--/coloro--><b>"You're born, you take shit...... You get out in the world, you take more shit........ You climb a little higher, you take less shit....... Till one day you're up in the rarefied atmosphere and you've forgotten what shit even looks like.............Welcome to the layer cake, son" - Eddie Temple, October 2004. </b><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc-->
<b>".........we are currently in a state of wealth destruction. So if you can preserve your wealth in those conditions, you're doing very well." - George Soros, May 13 2008</b>
<!--coloro:#000080--><span style="color:#000080"><!--/coloro--><b>"You're born, you take shit...... You get out in the world, you take more shit........ You climb a little higher, you take less shit....... Till one day you're up in the rarefied atmosphere and you've forgotten what shit even looks like.............Welcome to the layer cake, son" - Eddie Temple, October 2004. </b><!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc-->
#14
- STR :-)
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 9,989
- Joined: 26-March 07
Posted 06 June 2008 - 06:10 AM
mrcutegurlzz, on Jun 6 2008, 01:01 AM, said:
Man, I want a spare room so I can build a masterbatorium for jerking off in with pictures of girls all over the walls and soothing jerking off music and plasma screens showning el neato porn feeds etc etc, and web cams and a hot line to the Escort Agency.
More tea vicar?
Honorary truck driver.
#15
- HPC Regular
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 603
- Joined: 30-May 08
Posted 06 June 2008 - 06:34 AM
About 1996, I reckon.
Missed that one, so I'll review in 2 years and see if it looks like there's much more drop left.
Missed that one, so I'll review in 2 years and see if it looks like there's much more drop left.
Buy Rooibos Tea
Tick Tock's deep colour and full taste make a delicious cup of tea. Gentle, soothing and naturally caffeine free, Tick Tock can be enjoyed by the whole family at any time.
Tick Tock is naturally rich in antioxidants which may support your immune system against free radicals, and contains natural alpha hydroxyl acids, long valued for promoting fresh glowing skin.
Unbroken Tradition from the Founders of Rooibos Tea
The Tick Tock family have been growers and makers of rooibos tea ever since Grandfather Benjamin Ginsberg created it in 1903. A tea pioneer, he was the first to use traditional tea techniques to cure the wild rooibos plant found only in South Africa's magnificent Cedarberg mountains.
Over 100 years later, we continue to make Tick Tock to his original specifications.
Tick Tock's deep colour and full taste make a delicious cup of tea. Gentle, soothing and naturally caffeine free, Tick Tock can be enjoyed by the whole family at any time.
Tick Tock is naturally rich in antioxidants which may support your immune system against free radicals, and contains natural alpha hydroxyl acids, long valued for promoting fresh glowing skin.
Unbroken Tradition from the Founders of Rooibos Tea
The Tick Tock family have been growers and makers of rooibos tea ever since Grandfather Benjamin Ginsberg created it in 1903. A tea pioneer, he was the first to use traditional tea techniques to cure the wild rooibos plant found only in South Africa's magnificent Cedarberg mountains.
Over 100 years later, we continue to make Tick Tock to his original specifications.