[Not Long Now]

Check out the link, relating to Aussie house prices. This is listed on the homepage on the news string, but some of the comments could be plucked a The Sunday Times house price article.

http://www.news.com.au/comments/0,23600,23...5013951,00.html

There are over 180 comments on the story, and they are all worth a read. Specifically:-

Quote

i hope your landlord triples your rent to cover their losses tpole. without people willing and able to wear the losses associated with houses in the short term you and your ilk would be living in the cardboard boxes you deserve.

From a disgruntled BTL landlord no doubt.

Quote

As a first home buyer I'm more than happy for housing prices to drop. Prices in Canberra are over-inflated, $450,000 is the median property price. For a 450sqm block of land and a 3 bedroom house. A big thank-you to the US of A banks for sub-prime loans, Aussie banks and investors for their greed and the silliness of home buyers who take out loans they can't afford, if you go to a bank and they reject you for a home loan theres a reason for it. Do the maths, take some responsibility for your own finances and if you can't afford a house for a while save... my wife and I are and plan to for the next couple of years.

A FTB rubbing their hands together at what is to come.

Quote

It is simply fundamentals. House prices compared to average income was WAY out of kilter. Combine this with a housing market place where bank managers are paid commissions to get you to take out a mortgage and so much pressure to keep up with the Joneses. Will Australia take this opportunity to live more frugally and divert our savings and time to more community matters? I doubt it somehow - we have become so selfish.

Some common sense.

HPC is a worldwide problem and the same arguments are wheeled out on both sides, so it seems.

edit:spelling

This post has been edited by Notlongnow: 14 May 2008 - 06:29 PM

[ruisort7]

However:

Commonwealth Bank of Australia see signs of an easing in the global credit crunch that has caused corporate collapses, cut into bank profits and added to the pain of homeowners.

The outlook from the nation's biggest mortgage lender follows recent indications from Australia's other big banks that the worst of the global squeeze may be over.

CBA said credit margins payable for long term debt issues remained volatile during the March quarter of this year.

"However, funding conditions have shown some recent improvements, with liquidity gradually returning to markets which were previously closed,'' the bank said in its third quarter trading update today.

Two weeks ago, as Westpac delivered its interim results chief financial officer Paul Coffey it was likely the worst of the liquidity crisis had passed.

[Pedro for the Fed]

I posted a link the otehr day to the sydney herald-or some noospaper-and it was talking about parts of sydney where prices were down 50% is that real or just hyperbole?

[TalkingSense]

The global nature of house price falls really puts the kybosh on two of the main VI reasons to belive.

1. That it has anything to do with economic "fundamentals"

2. That it has anything to do with the UK being a special case due to being a crowded island.

Bunkum - and proved to be so

[Far Out Bear]

These people just haven't done their research. Anyone 'in' property knows that if it's been on the market for two years and hasn't sold, then it is simply a case of taking it off again, spunking away a god damned fortune on DIY, bit of landscaping, new garden walls, posh driveway complete new car outside. Then you just add what you spent onto the price, relist it and it'll FLY.

If you simply shut your eyes and ignore the silence of the bidders, then you can dream any price you want to, regardless of credit conditions.

This post has been edited by Far Out Bear: 15 May 2008 - 07:11 AM

[mattyboy1973]

the reaper, on May 15 2008, 07:55 AM, said:

I posted a link the otehr day to the sydney herald-or some noospaper-and it was talking about parts of sydney where prices were down 50% is that real or just hyperbole?

There are some individual distressed sales of properties (mostly in the less desirable Western suburbs) that have sold for half what they were bought for a few years ago, but 50% falls in asking prices from the peak (2003?) are a way off yet - not that we won't see them.
The worm is turning in the smarter ('immune' ) areas as of the last qtr (eg Mosman, one of the s*****iest Sysney 'burbs down 15% in the march quarter alone according to the state government statistics).

Things definitely aren't shifting where I am (inner west) and haven't been all year, but there's plenty of denial down here as well - and a long way for prices to fall.

edit: didn't notice the censoring - the word was sw.a.n.k.iest but you might have thought I mean't sh.i.t.t.iest

This post has been edited by mattyboy1973: 15 May 2008 - 09:04 AM

[steve99]

mattyboy1973, on May 15 2008, 08:16 AM, said:

There are some individual distressed sales of properties (mostly in the less desirable Western suburbs) that have sold for half what they were bought for a few years ago, but 50% falls in asking prices from the peak (2003?) are a way off yet - not that we won't see them.
The worm is turning in the smarter ('immune' ) areas as of the last qtr (eg Mosman, one of the s*****iest Sysney 'burbs down 15% in the march quarter alone according to the state government statistics).

Things definitely aren't shifting where I am (inner west) and haven't been all year, but there's plenty of denial down here as well - and a long way for prices to fall.

Was considering moving to Sydney, close into the city if possible, however was there at xmas for a few days (after not being there for many years) and what put me off was on the trip back to the airport was that every single house/buisness we passed seemed to have bars on the windows. What is your impression of the levels of crime and which bits may be better than others. (apart from the bared gated and security guarded mansions around the harbour)

[isg]

steve99, on May 15 2008, 06:56 PM, said:

Was considering moving to Sydney, close into the city if possible, however was there at xmas for a few days (after not being there for many years) and what put me off was on the trip back to the airport was that every single house/buisness we passed seemed to have bars on the windows. What is your impression of the levels of crime and which bits may be better than others. (apart from the bared gated and security guarded mansions around the harbour)

I live in Cremorne/Mosman and I can't say I've seen many places with bars over the window and crime around here seems to be very low down south and out west I think it's different. Regarding the areas that are good to live in I would suggest Neutral Bay, Cremorne,Mosman Manly or Fairlight but I would wait for a while until prices start really falling in these areas we have negative gearing holding up prices but the news keeps getting worse so it can't be long. In fact the news is reporting that one of the big homebuilders has gone under (beechwood I think).

[mattyboy1973]

isg, on May 15 2008, 09:18 AM, said:

I live in Cremorne/Mosman and I can't say I've seen many places with bars over the window and crime around here seems to be very low down south and out west I think it's different. Regarding the areas that are good to live in I would suggest Neutral Bay, Cremorne,Mosman Manly or Fairlight but I would wait for a while until prices start really falling in these areas we have negative gearing holding up prices but the news keeps getting worse so it can't be long. In fact the news is reporting that one of the big homebuilders has gone under (beechwood I think).

I agree - I live in the inner west which is also nice - in fact anywhere east of about Strathfield is pretty good. Crime wise to me there is no comparison with London where I grew up in the SE and lived in the East End most recently. You do hear a bit in the news but I take the fact that they still bother as a sign of low crime in Sydney - I can't see the national news in the UK reporting London muggings and 'bashings' - you have the buy the south London press for that. The place certainly feels a lot safer than the UK (low hoody factor) and although I have seen a few fisticuffs in the pubs they usually end after a couple of pi$$ed haymakers, not having an ashtray smashed in your face and getting your head stamped on 20 times.

As for the comment above about the credit crunch loosening down here - the Aussie banks are still raising their mortgage rates faster than the RBA is raising base rates its now nigh on 10% for an SVA mortgage. Not sure what multiples are still on offer - they were silly not so long ago.

[DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

"Awww, mate, this is just a livilling off, we've still got a commodity boom going. She'll be right."

[Bardon]

The OT newsarticle has been posted on here three times now its getting a good viewing. I think many miss the point that the Reserve bank has been aggresively raising rates to cool growth down and this is what we are seeing this is one of the results and the market continues to follow its cycle. Some misguided have paid to much for a house and been caught out with rising rates and getting a whooping....listings are well up sales down not a good time to be selling no doubt, many own there houses outright, many have small mortgages and not all investors are reckless. The big losses so far have been on the stock market this is where the crunch and margin loan calls have resulted in major losses.

I cant see where all the job losses are coming from the new budget is allocating $30b for major infrastruture projects(thats big potatoes in oz) Leighton share price jumped on this, exports looking very robust, energy exports increasing, massive new gas supply markets opening up in the east, skilled resource shortage. I honestly cant see this major recession that is being predicted but what do I know.

In Brisbane there are still affordable suburbs for FTB'rs no they cant afford inner city anymore but outer suburbs are fine and I cant see anything wrong with buying there.

Carole Park, $207,500 Inala, $252,250 Archerfield $281,250, Dinmore $204,000 Lamb Island, $213,000 Russell Island $217,500

[DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

Bardon, on May 15 2008, 10:54 AM, said:

The OT newsarticle has been posted on here three times now its getting a good viewing. I think many miss the point that the Reserve bank has been aggresively raising rates to cool growth down and this is what we are seeing this is one of the results and the market continues to follow its cycle. Some misguided have paid to much for a house and been caught out with rising rates and getting a whooping....listings are well up sales down not a good time to be selling no doubt, many own there houses outright, many have small mortgages and not all investors are reckless. The big losses so far have been on the stock market this is where the crunch and margin loan calls have resulted in major losses.

I cant see where all the job losses are coming from the new budget is allocating $30b for major infrastruture projects(thats big potatoes in oz) Leighton share price jumped on this, exports looking very robust, energy exports increasing, massive new gas supply markets opening up in the east, skilled resource shortage. I honestly cant see this major recession that is being predicted but what do I know.

In Brisbane there are still affordable suburbs for FTB'rs no they cant afford inner city anymore but outer suburbs are fine and I cant see anything wrong with buying there.

Carole Park, $207,500 Inala, $252,250 Archerfield $281,250, Dinmore $204,000 Lamb Island, $213,000 Russell Island $217,500

What's the average wage in urban and suburban Aus then?

[Bardon]

DissipatedYouthIsValuable, on May 15 2008, 07:49 PM, said:

"Awww, mate, this is just a livilling off, we've still got a commodity boom going. She'll be right."

--Jackpot!

--Double jackpot!

--Triple jackpot!

--The price action in the Aussie share market is starting to look like a pinball game. BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Woodside... some of Australia's biggest resource stocks made 52-week highs yesterday. Both BHP and Rio gave investment presentations in London yesterday, highlighting their various degrees of exposure to China's urbanisation.

--"In the face of global uncertainty and embedded inflation, Australia's resources market will become a haven for a tidal wave of funds from China, India, and developed economies," reports Patrick Durkin in today's Financial Review.

-- He was actually paraphrasing former Goldman Sachs Vice President Kenneth Courtis. Courtis told Australian investors at a conference, "China wants everything you've got, everything. And we still can't fathom the demand that China is going to generate in the years to come... Imagine another 250 million people urbanising China over the next 20 years. What do you think that does to copper prices, iron ore prices, even given the levels they are at today?"

--Let's assume that question is rhetorical. Curtis answers it anyway, "Over the next two, three, four years, Australia could become really hot. You could see your stock market move a little bit like the Japanese market did in the 1980s or like the tech market did in the 1990s."

--Well that's no good. That means the ASX is a bubble in the making. And we know how all bubbles end. Splat!

--This theme of perpetual prosperity from China-driven demand is beginning to sound like a drum beat. We've been tapping our toes too, adding to the rhythm. But it's worth remembering that markets always move in cycles, from scarcity to abundance, from caution to excess, from fear to greed and back again.

--The current cycle-or super cycle if you prefer-is still a cycle. But just how long might it last and how high might it take Aussie stocks? Well, judging by the chart above, the All Ords does not yet have that vertical look, where the slope is at a virtual right angle to the x-axis. But you get the feeling we're approaching liftoff, don't you?

--If Aussie resource stocks become a global inflation haven, the next four or five years may be the best four or five years you'll ever see to make money in resource stocks. "We are in for a generation of growth led by China and India which is unstoppable, unbridled, and unrivalled. In 2020, we will look back with wonder, shock, and awe at the growth we have seen," said Oxiana's Owen Hegarty.

--Hey, we like Oxiana as much as the next resource newsletter. But this kind of enthusiasm makes us a little nervous. When everyone starts to read from the same investment prayer book, that's when you usually get some act of God that no one saw coming. That is, there's no such thing as a sure thing in investment markets. You never know what may be lurking around the corner. It could be an earth quake, a war, or a revolution.

--Still, you'd have to be a real Danny Downer to rain on this resource parade. About the only disappointing player on the whole resource bench is the one that should be the star: gold. Its recent 18% correction has a lot of new gold investors concerned about its relative underperformance.

[Panda]

DissipatedYouthIsValuable, on May 15 2008, 10:57 AM, said:

What's the average wage in urban and suburban Aus then?

The disconnect in Oz is greater than the US and the UK, average wage around $55k, average HP $500K, FOOKIN LUDICROUS!!!!

Cannot wait to see it all crash, there is no way Oz will escape this one, 40% down from peak, no problems, very little wage inflation so real falls.

[Bardon]

DissipatedYouthIsValuable, on May 15 2008, 07:57 PM, said:

What's the average wage in urban and suburban Aus then?

Cant be bothered looking it up.