[abharrisson]

I heard the piece, and actually I think the HPC chap balanced it wrong... it would have sounded a lot more reasonable if he were to have said over the next four years we expect inflation of around 4% and house price drops at the same time. During the period we expect a 20% drop in actual prices with a total inflation adjusted fall of 40%...... That would have been a reasonable way to put the point accross even though I personally do not think it will be that steep. (Note... I can't believe he meant a 40% drop in in actual prices over four years with inflation adjustment this would make 60%... the last one was only 13% in actual price falls with the rest being inflation adjustment).

Secondly I do think there is credence to the point that falls will be much higher in some pockets... eg new build city centre flat environment, those areas with large penetrations of those who are financially struggling (by the by this dovetails quite neatly with BTL penetration). In other words the fall won't be something we can judge nationally as different areas will have different characteristics even beyond the county level eg Suffolk will be dragged down by Ipswich.... Essex will be dragged down by colchester, chelmsford, southend etc).

So in summary I do think he could have made the point he wanted to just as clearly by perhaps firstly breaking down the inflation effect from the actual price drop and secondly making the point about regional differences.

My own view for what its worth is that there will be a blood bath in the new build flat sector and in those areas where people are more stretched financially..... and that this will create a gloomy national picture... however we will not necessarilly see dramatic falls everywhere, and some house types in some areas may not have much of a correction at all. I would say as I have before that there are plenty out there who want to buy, who can afford it and who I see every day, but financing is getting in the way.... if we can find a way to reduce the margin between the BOE rate and LIBOR back to a more healthy 50 basis points (traditionally about 30 basis points) then I think the financing situation will ease considerably.

[bobthe~]

abharrisson, on Apr 15 2008, 08:41 AM, said:

I heard the piece, and actually I think the HPC chap balanced it wrong... it would have sounded a lot more reasonable if he were to have said over the next four years we expect inflation of around 4% and house price drops at the same time. During the period we expect a 20% drop in actual prices with a total inflation adjusted fall of 40%...... That would have been a reasonable way to put the point accross even though I personally do not think it will be that steep. (Note... I can't believe he meant a 40% drop in in actual prices over four years with inflation adjustment this would make 60%... the last one was only 13% in actual price falls with the rest being inflation adjustment).

Secondly I do think there is credence to the point that falls will be much higher in some pockets... eg new build city centre flat environment, those areas with large penetrations of those who are financially struggling (by the by this dovetails quite neatly with BTL penetration). In other words the fall won't be something we can judge nationally as different areas will have different characteristics even beyond the county level eg Suffolk will be dragged down by Ipswich.... Essex will be dragged down by colchester, chelmsford, southend etc).

So in summary I do think he could have made the point he wanted to just as clearly by perhaps firstly breaking down the inflation effect from the actual price drop and secondly making the point about regional differences.

My own view for what its worth is that there will be a blood bath in the new build flat sector and in those areas where people are more stretched financially..... and that this will create a gloomy national picture... however we will not necessarilly see dramatic falls everywhere, and some house types in some areas may not have much of a correction at all. I would say as I have before that there are plenty out there who want to buy, who can afford it and who I see every day, but financing is getting in the way.... if we can find a way to reduce the margin between the BOE rate and LIBOR back to a more healthy 50 basis points (traditionally about 30 basis points) then I think the financing situation will ease considerably.

We only saw 13% last time nationally because it was pretty much all in the south east of england. This time it is national.
Flats to fall nationally by more than the 44% that mine lost in Great Crash 1, which I think we need to rename "Minor Blip 1".

If there is a blood bath in the new build sector, how will current flat owners get onto the next rung of the ladder?

[babesagainstmachines]

Brilliant.

Need to start attacking that "interest rate" meme. Point out the fallacy of cutting rates in an inflationary environment. What do the average household spend on mortgage interest? If it's less than 50% of net income, cutting rates does not help, it hurts.

[DoctorJ]

Blimey FP! you really gave it some this morning. All sheeple listeners are going to be cacking it after listening to that - or perhaps was that the plan FP

[Killer Bunny]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/mainframe.s...l_breakfast_tue

Go forward to just after 8am i.e. just over 2 hours

[bemused40]

I thought Jonathan Davies made a complete **** of himself.

"When will the media wake up to the fact that the country is facing the biggest housing market crash ever"????

The media has been talking about little else for months - that's why this bloke is rarely off our screens these days, though what his credentials are for being regarded as an "expert" are (other than this site which, lets not forget, has been getting it wrong for nearly 5 years!) I'm not sure.

Even if he gets his "30-40%" correction, we'll only be back to roughly where we were when he started his ranting.

[Killer Bunny]

bemused40, on Apr 15 2008, 10:01 AM, said:

Even if he gets his "30-40%" correction, we'll only be back to roughly where we were when he started his ranting.

Except that I only started to make public comments c 2 years ago.

[Tinman]

I had to laugh. FP you went a little bit Darlek there.

" There WILL be a crash - EXTERMINATE!! EXTERMINATE!!"

Judging by the " we are all doomed" texts afterwards though, the message got through.

[Dominic]

How is it that the BBC on 5 live allow idiots like that Jonathan commenting on a house price crash quoting a 40% crash it is totally irresponsible and Journalists banging the drum every day is completely against the well being of millions of home owners.

I view this uncontrolled irresponsible reporting dangerous to Britain’s economy and much more serious than insider trading the Government should step in to stop uninformed unqualified reporting to what is people’s largest investment. As a property expert I am sick to the back teeth listening to the twaddle the BBC churn out every day.

There is only one reason why people are starting to panic and that stems from uninformed Journalists banging the drum every day. In the last recession pockets all over the country were affected and many pockets not. As like topics on Europe on other subjects no balance. If you take London the prime areas of Knightsbridge, Belgravia, Marylebone, Soho and Covent Garden were unaffected in the last recession.

BBC have like so many companies Journalists that have not got a clue and entertain a hypothetical line that has no bearing in the current prime London market with 5% interest rates and low unemployment, people should not believe all they hear from uninformed Journalists. In the last month I have seen five closed bid situations with prices ranging from 1M-4M

Agitated

[shindigger]

Dominic, on Apr 15 2008, 10:25 AM, said:

How is it that the BBC on 5 live allow idiots like that Jonathan commenting on a house price crash quoting a 40% crash it is totally irresponsible and Journalists banging the drum every day is completely against the well being of millions of home owners.

I view this uncontrolled irresponsible reporting dangerous to Britain’s economy and much more serious than insider trading the Government should step in to stop uninformed unqualified reporting to what is people’s largest investment. As a property expert I am sick to the back teeth listening to the twaddle the BBC churn out every day.

There is only one reason why people are starting to panic and that stems from uninformed Journalists banging the drum every day. In the last recession pockets all over the country were affected and many pockets not. As like topics on Europe on other subjects no balance. If you take London the prime areas of Knightsbridge, Belgravia, Marylebone, Soho and Covent Garden were unaffected in the last recession.

BBC have like so many companies Journalists that have not got a clue and entertain a hypothetical line that has no bearing in the current prime London market with 5% interest rates and low unemployment, people should not believe all they hear from uninformed Journalists. In the last month I have seen five closed bid situations with prices ranging from 1M-4M

Agitated

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHA.
You clueless tosser.

[Crossbow]

Dominic, on Apr 15 2008, 10:25 AM, said:

How is it that the BBC on 5 live allow idiots like that Jonathan commenting on a house price crash quoting a 40% crash it is totally irresponsible and Journalists banging the drum every day is completely against the well being of millions of home owners.

I view this uncontrolled irresponsible reporting dangerous to Britain’s economy and much more serious than insider trading the Government should step in to stop uninformed unqualified reporting to what is people’s largest investment. As a property expert I am sick to the back teeth listening to the twaddle the BBC churn out every day.

There is only one reason why people are starting to panic and that stems from uninformed Journalists banging the drum every day. In the last recession pockets all over the country were affected and many pockets not. As like topics on Europe on other subjects no balance. If you take London the prime areas of Knightsbridge, Belgravia, Marylebone, Soho and Covent Garden were unaffected in the last recession.

BBC have like so many companies Journalists that have not got a clue and entertain a hypothetical line that has no bearing in the current prime London market with 5% interest rates and low unemployment, people should not believe all they hear from uninformed Journalists. In the last month I have seen five closed bid situations with prices ranging from 1M-4M

Agitated

This HAS to be a wind-up

[sambino]

Does the guy work for Foxtons!!

[Tinman]

No no - everyone listen to him, he's a property "expert"

[the primitive]

Dominic, on Apr 15 2008, 10:25 AM, said:

How is it that the BBC on 5 live allow idiots like that Jonathan commenting on a house price crash quoting a 40% crash it is totally irresponsible and Journalists banging the drum every day is completely against the well being of millions of home owners.

I view this uncontrolled irresponsible reporting dangerous to Britain’s economy and much more serious than insider trading the Government should step in to stop uninformed unqualified reporting to what is people’s largest investment. As a property expert I am sick to the back teeth listening to the twaddle the BBC churn out every day.

There is only one reason why people are starting to panic and that stems from uninformed Journalists banging the drum every day. In the last recession pockets all over the country were affected and many pockets not. As like topics on Europe on other subjects no balance. If you take London the prime areas of Knightsbridge, Belgravia, Marylebone, Soho and Covent Garden were unaffected in the last recession.

BBC have like so many companies Journalists that have not got a clue and entertain a hypothetical line that has no bearing in the current prime London market with 5% interest rates and low unemployment, people should not believe all they hear from uninformed Journalists. In the last month I have seen five closed bid situations with prices ranging from 1M-4M

Agitated

There there put some more hair gel on and have a cup of tea, a nice sit down and a game of minesweeper as the tumble weed blows through your office....

[Methinkshe]

Dominic, on Apr 15 2008, 10:25 AM, said:

How is it that the BBC on 5 live allow idiots like that Jonathan commenting on a house price crash quoting a 40% crash it is totally irresponsible and Journalists banging the drum every day is completely against the well being of millions of home owners.

The same way it allows idiots like that Kirsty Allsop on to Five Live to deny there is a house price crash.

Quote

I view this uncontrolled irresponsible reporting dangerous to Britain’s economy and much more serious than insider trading the Government should step in to stop uninformed unqualified reporting to what is people’s largest investment. As a property expert I am sick to the back teeth listening to the twaddle the BBC churn out every day.

So what do you propose? Media censorship? I suggest you go and live in Zimbabwe and see how much you enjoy government CONTROLLED reporting if you don't like British "uncontrolled" reporting.

Quote

There is only one reason why people are starting to panic and that stems from uninformed Journalists banging the drum every day.

Are you deaf or deliberately provocative? Jonathan Davies was introduced as a CHARTERED financial planner. Do you understand what "chartered" means? I fear that it is you are uninformed, not Jonathan Davies.

Quote

In the last recession pockets all over the country were affected and many pockets not. As like topics on Europe on other subjects no balance. If you take London the prime areas of Knightsbridge, Belgravia, Marylebone, Soho and Covent Garden were unaffected in the last recession.

Who told you that prime areas of London were unaffected during the last house price crash? I suggest you check your information. The WHOLE country experienced house price falls and some areas more so than others. There were no areas that were unaffected.

Quote

BBC have like so many companies Journalists that have not got a clue and entertain a hypothetical line that has no bearing in the current prime London market with 5% interest rates and low unemployment, people should not believe all they hear from uninformed Journalists. In the last month I have seen five closed bid situations with prices ranging from 1M-4M

It is you who are clueless - so clueless that you cannot even see what is happening right under your nose.

Quote

Agitated

You are going to be even more agitated in three years time when house prices have fallen by 30 - 40%.