[DrBubb]

Early again? Despite the big drops, I am now interested...
... in looking at R.E. investments in Cleveland, Detroit ...
=====================================
... Chicago, and other cities in the Great Lakes region
=======

Despite never having risen much since 2000, like another Midwest City (Detroit),
Cleveland Real Estate values have fallen sharply in the last 7 months, and it looks like
they may wipe out ALL THE GAINS since 2000 before long.

FALLS SINCE JUNE 2007 - various Cities:

mo.: +CSXR. / +S20R / Miami , SanFran. -NYC-, Boston, Chicago, Denver Detroit, Cleve.
jun. : 217.33 / 199.43 / 264.89, 209.48, 209.34, 171.29, 165.94, 138.09, 110.70, 118.33
dec : 200.73 / 185.01 / 231.71, 189.23, 202.32, 164.59, 160.03, 130.98, 103.30, 112.07
J.08: 196.06 / 180.65 / 225.40, 183.81, 200.49, 162.59, 156.47, 128.98, 100.17, 108.49
Chg.: - 9.8%/ - 9.4%/ - 14.9%, - 12.3%, -4 .2%, - 5.1%, - 5.7%, - 6.6%, - 9.5%, - 8.3%

The biggest monthly falls were in January, so it looks like 2008 may be the worst year yet.

CLEVELAND has been added to the Cities tracked on the Schiller index thread:
http://www.greenener...?showtopic=2362

[DrBubb]

The Great Lakes - Another advantage shared with Detroit and Chicago.
It is not only the world's largest fresh water resource (I believe), but it is also liked to the global
markets by water through the St.Lawrence seaway- a huge advantage for exports traveling by sea.

Foreclosed properties held by banks - plenty around the Great Lakes

- note: That red spot below the D in "Detroit" is Cleveland.

Big Picture, the city can be rebuilt around its rail links, its downtown, its universities, and its renewed
ability to compete in a global market as the US dollar falls - That's my thesis, but is it correct?

[sossij]

DrBubb, on Apr 3 2008, 09:28 AM, said:

Early again? Despite the big drops, I am now interested...
... in looking at R.E. investments in Cleveland, Detroit ...
=====================================
... Chicago, and other cities in the Great Lakes region
=======

Despite never having risen much since 2000, like another Midwest City (Detroit),
Cleveland Real Estate values have fallen sharply in the last 7 months, and it looks like
they may wipe out ALL THE GAINS since 2000 before long.

FALLS SINCE JUNE 2007 - various Cities:

mo.: +CSXR. / +S20R / Miami , SanFran. -NYC-, Boston, Chicago, Denver Detroit, Cleve.
jun. : 217.33 / 199.43 / 264.89, 209.48, 209.34, 171.29, 165.94, 138.09, 110.70, 118.33
dec : 200.73 / 185.01 / 231.71, 189.23, 202.32, 164.59, 160.03, 130.98, 103.30, 112.07
J.08: 196.06 / 180.65 / 225.40, 183.81, 200.49, 162.59, 156.47, 128.98, 100.17, 108.49
Chg.: - 9.8%/ - 9.4%/ - 14.9%, - 12.3%, -4 .2%, - 5.1%, - 5.7%, - 6.6%, - 9.5%, - 8.3%

The biggest monthly falls were in January, so it looks like 2008 may be the worst year yet.

CLEVELAND has been added to the Cities tracked on the Schiller index thread:
http://www.greenener...?showtopic=2362

You could buy shares in repo companies too and really make a killing

[Godfather]

DrBubb, on Apr 3 2008, 09:28 AM, said:

Early again? Despite the big drops, I am now interested...
... in looking at R.E. investments in Cleveland, Detroit ...
=====================================
... Chicago, and other cities in the Great Lakes region
=======

Despite never having risen much since 2000, like another Midwest City (Detroit),
Cleveland Real Estate values have fallen sharply in the last 7 months, and it looks like
they may wipe out ALL THE GAINS since 2000 before long.

FALLS SINCE JUNE 2007 - various Cities:

mo.: +CSXR. / +S20R / Miami , SanFran. -NYC-, Boston, Chicago, Denver Detroit, Cleve.
jun. : 217.33 / 199.43 / 264.89, 209.48, 209.34, 171.29, 165.94, 138.09, 110.70, 118.33
dec : 200.73 / 185.01 / 231.71, 189.23, 202.32, 164.59, 160.03, 130.98, 103.30, 112.07
J.08: 196.06 / 180.65 / 225.40, 183.81, 200.49, 162.59, 156.47, 128.98, 100.17, 108.49
Chg.: - 9.8%/ - 9.4%/ - 14.9%, - 12.3%, -4 .2%, - 5.1%, - 5.7%, - 6.6%, - 9.5%, - 8.3%

The biggest monthly falls were in January, so it looks like 2008 may be the worst year yet.

CLEVELAND has been added to the Cities tracked on the Schiller index thread:
http://www.greenener...?showtopic=2362

I have been considering this myself. Could be some good opportunities in Cleveland but lots of homework would have to be done first. Best time to buy something could still be a couple of years away yet.

[DrBubb]

Godfather, on Apr 3 2008, 09:35 AM, said:

I have been considering this myself. Could be some good opportunities in Cleveland but lots of homework would have to be done first. Best time to buy something could still be a couple of years away yet.

Now is the time to start "the homework", since if you wait for the bottom,
you will wind up grabbing the first "bargains" you see, and may not have zeroed in on the
most strategic areas.

I started thinking seriously about Hong Kong many months before I bought my first property.
Now I own nine. So starting now may be wise even if the bottom comes next winter, like I expect

(Want to know more about opportunties in Cleveland? I have collected some info : here )

This post has been edited by DrBubb: 03 April 2008 - 08:52 AM

[The Masked Tulip]

The rust-belt? Hmm, you really need to do some research into those cities, the demographics, the income figures, numerous social issues, the whole thing.

I personally would never even consider going near the place yet alone investing in it.

[gfromls]

Are you talking about the very bottom end of the market?



There are properties in these areas that are selling for $1 to $100, some say these properties are worthless. Personally I think they are worth significantly less than zero, what you’ve got to take into account is that there is no demand to live there what so ever, most of these areas are just too dangerous. The houses get vandalised, burnt out or taken over by junkies.

These areas may recover, but how long will it take, 10 or 20 years?. In the meantime you’ll be responsible for paying local taxes, rates ect. I remember areas like this in the UK, in the mid 90’s. the police viewed vandalised houses as a risk to public safety and would force owners to keep the property secure (to stop little kids getting in and hurting themselves). I’d check that out with the US authorities, it could cost you thousands.

Also, the cost to renovate these houses (which you may have to do more than once, due to repeat theft and vandalism) would far exceed the potential re-sale value.

It’s not just a case of buying something cheap and waiting for it to go up in value IMHO.

This post has been edited by gfromls: 03 April 2008 - 09:38 AM

[mbga9pgf]

The Masked Tulip, on Apr 3 2008, 09:56 AM, said:

The rust-belt? Hmm, you really need to do some research into those cities, the demographics, the income figures, numerous social issues, the whole thing.

I personally would never even consider going near the place yet alone investing in it.

Bubb, off to the states for 2 months in May, Oklahoma, I will be looking for bargains whilst over there. Whats the crack over owning a property abroad where you are non-resident? What happens if, for example, squatters move in and you are told to move them on, but are living abroad?

[Noodle]

DrBubb, on Apr 3 2008, 09:32 AM, said:

The Great Lakes - Another advantage shared with Detroit and Chicago.
It is not only the world's largest fresh water resource (I believe), but it is also liked to the global
markets by water through the St.Lawrence seaway- a huge advantage for exports traveling by sea.

Foreclosed properties held by banks - plenty around the Great Lakes

- note: That red spot below the D in "Detroit" is Cleveland.

Big Picture, the city can be rebuilt around its rail links, its downtown, its universities, and its renewed
ability to compete in a global market as the US dollar falls - That's my thesis, but is it correct?

Probably best off with Northern California or Oregan.

At least it's nice up there.

[Sledgehead]

Thanks doc for sharing your thoughts. I'll be checking GEI & elsewhwere to keep my eye on this one.

[Durch]

DrBubb, on Apr 3 2008, 09:32 AM, said:

but it is also li[n]ked to the global markets by water through the St.Lawrence seaway- a huge advantage for exports traveling by sea.

If the world continues to warm, the Arctic ice will disappear, and then the northern coasts of Canada/US and Russia will be in a rim surrounding a new open seaway. Think what happend to the Pacific Rim and the states surrounding the Baltic Sea (and the Atlantic before that, and the Med before that). Trade explosion.

I remember reading a big article on a massive future polar shipping boom in 'The Business' a few years ago.

Fun to think about, but a lot of 'ifs' there.

This post has been edited by Durch: 03 April 2008 - 11:07 AM

[Bardon]

I had quite a few props in US the majority in Rochester and Buffalo on the lakes. They were foreclosures and it was pretty tough going all the way. Had a bad run with locals and ended up with an ex cop who turned out to be crooked as well. The locals did well but of all the overseas investors and out of towners I knew off they found it pretty tough.

Absolutely stunning properties built when the Eyre Canal was starting up. Great cities, very big, lots of infrastructure largely underused. If I was going to do it again which is unlikely I would reccomend working the high end of the market in these cities as the low end is pretty tough even for seasoned investors. Investing in US as foreigneir can be tricky at time with repsect to financing, structures, taxtion etc but possible of course. With the US $ being weak could also be a good punt ie if the house price doesn't go up but the dollar strengthens you are in front.

Texas, Nashville and some other southern states markets have been very steady achieving good yield and growth and still are as far as I can see as they havent had a boom.

My cousin who lives in NYC has just bought two waterside in FLA for about 50% of last year prices and he thinks that has got to be a good buy, time will tell no doubt. He cant understand why I wont buy any of them as he thought that I had rocks for brains buying in Rochester.

[The Three Little Pigs]

Bardon, on Apr 3 2008, 12:30 PM, said:

I had quite a few props in US the majority in Rochester and Buffalo on the lakes. They were foreclosures and it was pretty tough going all the way. Had a bad run with locals and ended up with an ex cop who turned out to be crooked as well. The locals did well but of all the overseas investors and out of towners I knew off they found it pretty tough.

Absolutely stunning properties built when the Eyre Canal was starting up. Great cities, very big, lots of infrastructure largely underused. If I was going to do it again which is unlikely I would reccomend working the high end of the market in these cities as the low end is pretty tough even for seasoned investors. Investing in US as foreigneir can be tricky at time with repsect to financing, structures, taxtion etc but possible of course. With the US $ being weak could also be a good punt ie if the house price doesn't go up but the dollar strengthens you are in front.

Texas, Nashville and some other southern states markets have been very steady achieving good yield and growth and still are as far as I can see as they havent had a boom.

My cousin who lives in NYC has just bought two waterside in FLA for about 50% of last year prices and he thinks that has got to be a good buy, time will tell no doubt. He cant understand why I wont buy any of them as he thought that I had rocks for brains buying in Rochester.

Bardon

Any knowledge of Canandaigua and towns round the Finger Lakes? Desk research suggests it could be attractive.

[Bardon]

The Three Little Pigs, on Apr 3 2008, 09:42 PM, said:

Bardon

Any knowledge of Canandaigua and towns round the Finger Lakes? Desk research suggests it could be attractive.

Finger Lakes has a good name and I have heard good stories with respect to investing success mostly larger type devlopments and by locals. I have never been there either and i wouldn't bet my house on it though. My relatives who live in NYC have went there on holiday there is wine making and things like that. My understanding is that those areas are a completely different ball game to the cities. Just as inner city is a completely different ball game to suburbs within the city metro areas.

Population is going to increase in the longer term in the US well after it has started to decline in Europe I think this is significant. I also think that there are a lot of vacant properties in the smoke stack cities and they are depressed areas so there is a significant time period from whne populqtion growth actually starts to take up supply. I hvent done the research recently but Bufflo nd Rochester population was declining when I last looked and I think it still is. I also think that it will change one day and start to increase dont know when though. The country once again is different.

This is a good resource for investment research for US Metro areas it didn't have finger lakes but it has Canandaigua shows median price growth last year of 5% and steady mostly white population as opposed to say Rochester which is -5% which demonstrates that the regional towns are different and probably better from a social and econcomic point of view.

Quote

DEcent place to raise a family but a little pricey: New York is one of the highest taxed states in the country. The political feel is very Democratic and not at all good for business. Most of the large businesses are...

http://www.bestplace...a-New_York.aspx


City Overview
As of 2007, Canandaigua's population is 11,317 people. Since 2000, it has had a population growth of 0.47 percent.

The median home cost in Canandaigua is $226,500. Home appreciation the last year has been 5.35 percent.

Compared to the rest of the country, Canandaigua's cost of living is 6.58% Lower than the U.S. average.

Canandaigua public schools spend $7,931 per student. The average school expenditure in the U.S. is $6,058. There are about 14 students per teacher in Canandaigua.

The unemployment rate in Canandaigua is 3.70 percent(U.S. avg. is 4.60%). Recent job growth is Negative. Canandaigua jobs have Decreased by 0.91 percent.

Canandaigua General SperlingViews


People
The 2007 Canandaigua, NY, population is 11,317. There are 2,461 people per square mile (population density).

Family in Canandaigua, NY
The median age is 40.1. The US median is 37.6. 50.21% of people in Canandaigua, NY, are married. 13.08% are divorced.

The average household size is 2.22 people. 17.89% of people are married, with children. 8.99% have children, but are single.

Race in Canandaigua, NY
94.21% of people are white, 2.07% are black, 1.00% are asian, 0.29% are native american, and 1.56% claim 'Other'.

1.41% of the people in Canandaigua, NY, claim hispanic ethnicity (meaning 98.59% are non-hispanic).

Economy
The unemployment rate in Canandaigua, NY, is 3.70%, with job growth of -0.91%. Future job growth over the next ten years is predicted to be 11.95%.

Canandaigua, NY Taxes

Canandaigua, NY,sales tax rate is 7.25%. Income tax is 7.13%.

[The Three Little Pigs]

BArdon

Very many thanks for that.

Planning to take an exploratory trip later this year. I'll report back.