[Vespasian]

With the TDGTTS report due out over the weekend, the question on everyones lips is how many reductions this week? 600? 700? 800? 900? 1000+?

Well in an effort to amuse myself this evening I have started the TDGTTS sweepstake!

Simply put forward the number of reductions you think will appear this weekend. Don't be shy!

The closest winning entry will be entered into the rolling hall of fame, and receive a fantasy property bonus each week as shown below

Quote

Offers Around
£ 40,000
Potential Development site at side (subject to planning permission)
We are delighted to offer this investment opportunity with a superb corner site with the potential for a (DOG KENNEL) dwelling subject to necessary approvals. A preliminary plan has been created(ON THE BACK OF A BEER MAT) detailing the proposed dwelling. The property is located off the Clandeboye Road close to all transport links, amenities and Bangor Town Centre.

http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...amp;p=PNC208901

[Vespasian]

864 reductions

[Traktion]

haha, great idea! I'm feeling like it'll be a naughty, nine hundred and nineteen - 919!

btw that re-worded ad cracked me up! haha!

This post has been edited by Traktion: 07 March 2008 - 09:49 PM

[Sogy]

734 reductions!

[subby]

799

[Vespasian]

doccyboy, on Mar 8 2008, 04:20 PM, said:

Its up 803 reductions

http://www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com/Prope...NI/08.03.08.htm

SUBBY WINS!

Congratulations on your property win too. What do you plan to build on the site, a wendy house????

[S S]

Noticed the 2nd house from the bottom 48 Bally Rd Ballymena was reduced last week but has been put back up in price. wounder why

[Belfast Boy]

doccyboy, on Mar 8 2008, 08:42 PM, said:

Don't you read the Belfast Tele? The market's turned - evrything is hunky dory

Congrats Subby.

I wonder will the market level off? Then I look at the history of other housing bubbles for the answer.

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee......!!!!!!

[p.p.]

doccyboy, on Mar 8 2008, 08:42 PM, said:

Don't you read the Belfast Tele? The market's turned - evrything is hunky dory

I haven't read today's tele - is there a link doocyboy?

I was looking at a graph compaing 'all UK' HP data vs. NI on Bosco's HP falls poll and there is (or rather was) some correlation between 'all UK' HP avg. data and NI HP avg. data. (see here)

As you can see both data sets rise at a similar rate and you can see how NI misses the boom and bust of the late 80's / early 90's.

Anyway, another way of looking at comparing these two sets of data is to calculate the difference (£) for each quarter and plot this difference (NI minus all UK) against time (see below)




Again you can see the effect of NI 'missing' the early boom and bust, and you can also see the difference of the last three years. Interestingly the last 'optimum' time to buy here when compared to 'all of the UK' was 2004.

data = natwide quarterly nominal avg. HPs post 73

[Belfast Boy]

prophet-profit, on Mar 8 2008, 09:14 PM, said:

Again you can see the effect of NI 'missing' the early boom and bust, and you can also see the difference of the last three years. Interestingly the last 'optimum' time to buy here when compared to 'all of the UK' was 2004.

data = natwide quarterly nominal avg. HPs post 73

WoW!

Can I just say say... thanks PP.

So what do you think the return to trend/normal is going to look like?

What will that 'return to trend' mean for house prices in Northern Ireland?

Can you factor in the likely recession in the USA, Republic of Ireland and UK?

[p.p.]

Belfast Boy, on Mar 8 2008, 09:25 PM, said:

WoW!

Can I just say say... thanks PP.

So what do you think the return to trend/normal is going to look like?

What will that 'return to trend' mean for house prices in Northern Ireland?

Can you factor in the likely recession in the USA, Republic of Ireland and UK?

Hi BB

My thoughts on the 'return to trend' are dependent on two different answers;

The first 'answer' would see the initial correction of the rapid 'spike', the second answer would focus on the underlying performance of the UK housing market in general.

For me, the second answer is far more harder to quantify (or at least try and quantify) as this is dependent on far more variables. I hear what your saying about the likely recession and the fact that the UK and Ireland have current account defecits 'down' there with the US does not help. Sometimes, I try and play 'devils advocate' to see where the answer may lie and look at the 'positive' aspects of NI future economy etc. But rather than go into that now (I am quite 'bullish' on Belfast in the long term!), I have to acknowledge the seemingly oncoming recession and the USA's in-ability (thus-far) to deal with it. Fragile times indeed .

Sorry, if the answers are a bit vague, but I think I know what's going to happen to NI HPs in the short term, it's the long term that I cannot get to grips with because of the unprecedented times we find ourselves in.

[Belfast Boy]

prophet-profit, on Mar 8 2008, 09:40 PM, said:

Hi BB

My thoughts on the 'return to trend' are dependent on two different answers;

The first 'answer' would see the initial correction of the rapid 'spike', the second answer would focus on the underlying performance of the UK housing market in general.

For me, the second answer is far more harder to quantify (or at least try and quantify) as this is dependent on far more variables. I hear what your saying about the likely recession and the fact that the UK and Ireland have current account defecits 'down' there with the US does not help. Sometimes, I try and play 'devils advocate' to see where the answer may lie and look at the 'positive' aspects of NI future economy etc. But rather than go into that now (I am quite 'bullish' on Belfast in the long term!), I have to acknowledge the seemingly oncoming recession and the USA's in-ability (thus-far) to deal with it. Fragile times indeed .

Sorry, if the answers are a bit vague, but I think I know what's going to happen to NI HPs in the short term, it's the long term that I cannot get to grips with because of the unprecedented times we find ourselves in.

Good answer!

I know my questions are impossible to answer.

Uncharted territory?

I know I may seem extreme on this website.

However, you are one of the posters I have always respected here.

Sorry if my previous arguments with other people have annoyed you.

I have been told that I am very dogmatic in my opinions!

Sorry.

[p.p.]

Belfast Boy, on Mar 8 2008, 09:51 PM, said:

Good answer!

I know my questions are impossible to answer.

Uncharted territory?

I know I may seem extreme on this website.

However, you are one of the posters I have always respected here.

Sorry if my previous arguments with other people have annoyed you.

I have been told that I am very dogmatic in my opinions!

Sorry.

ce la vie

Looking back on 'things' here a few weeks ago, I was a bit annoyed with what happened about you-know-who , he did bring balance in a way which made me question things from a different angle. But, in retrospect, I do acknowledge that he could be a bit headstrong with his opinion

After my business with Vicmac, I was (or am) trying to diffuse the 'personal' side of arguments on here, but I am not a mod and I need to get some perspective from time to time as well!!

I personally don't think you are 'extreme', as any NI bear here knows about house price bubbles more than most. TBH, I agree with a lot of what you say, but I do wonder whether the affordability ratios of the last 30 years are being replaced by 'newer' ones as a result of prolonged low interest rates. But having said (or written) that, I read a quote today that was quite fitting; House Prices are determined by what the banks are willing to lend - credit crunch anyone!!

I have said it before and will say it again, the quality of posters on the NI Forum is unsurpassed on any other area of hpc (% posts per poster). just my humble opinion of course

[Belfast Boy]

prophet-profit, on Mar 8 2008, 10:13 PM, said:

House Prices are determined by what the banks are willing to lend - credit crunch anyone!!

Uncharted territory?

[p.p.]

Belfast Boy, on Mar 8 2008, 10:22 PM, said:

Uncharted territory?

Indeed

and for the first time in my life I bought some gold this week. I need to start going on some other forums!! maybe the singing pig will sort me out