Jump to content


Photo

Edinbugh Latest


  • Please log in to reply
3298 replies to this topic

#1066 fflump

fflump

    HPC Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 630 posts

Posted 07 February 2009 - 10:18 PM

imo the catalyst for big falls in quality property will be sky high interest rates. thats the problem for us edinburgh and aberdeen now. great in england massive drops now put in 80% asking price etc then get a 10 year mortgage at 5.5pc etc. cake and eating it.
but because our markets are so far behind itl be well into the sky high interest rates before our property drops significantly that instead of paying the sellor a rediculous price we will the paying the bank a rediculous price in interest repayments...

was half tempted to move to somewhere where there has been an accepted widespread crash of property just to do this...


Keep the faith. Edinburgh will feel much more pain when the financial sector job cuts kick in. Sky high interest rates will, if they happen, mean only that prices become even more depressed. Save cash. If don't have to borrow much then high interest rates are your friend as they have a greater effect on other buyers than you.

I am looking to buy with a mortgage of around 40% LTV. High interest rates and rubbish mortgage deals suit me just fine as they will further depress the market and put off the average buyer.

#1067 Guest_An Bearin Bui_*

Guest_An Bearin Bui_*
  • Guests

Posted 08 February 2009 - 02:00 PM

Keep the faith. Edinburgh will feel much more pain when the financial sector job cuts kick in. Sky high interest rates will, if they happen, mean only that prices become even more depressed. Save cash. If don't have to borrow much then high interest rates are your friend as they have a greater effect on other buyers than you.

I am looking to buy with a mortgage of around 40% LTV. High interest rates and rubbish mortgage deals suit me just fine as they will further depress the market and put off the average buyer.

It is definitely a case of watching and waiting. Not much is being covered in the media in Edinburgh but if you talk to people on the ground, there is plenty of evidence of constrained circumstances and cutbacks. Anyone I know in the legal profession is currently in shock at how bad things have got for them. Most went into law for the guaranteed job security but are now seeing a different world. I was talking to a guy recently who's a partner in commercial law with a well-known firm and he said he's seeing colleagues laid off for the first time and knows friends who've been laid off and have no idea what to do as they never experienced redundancy before. This is something that will hit Edinburgh badly as even for those that don't lose their jobs, bonuses will be smaller or non-existent and that will have a massive impact on house prices. At the peak of the boom, lawyers etc were being offered mortgages for 5/6 times their income including bonuses as they were seen as a sure bet by lenders.

Ironically, from all the people I talk to, I'm hearing of lawyers, accountants, small start-up tech businesses, marketing staff etc having a hard time but absolutely NO sign yet of (B)*****ers losing their jobs. The rest of us are taking the hit for them. :angry:

#1068 ccc

ccc

    I make myself sick

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21,321 posts
  • Location:Edinburgh, JockLand
  • About Me:German Girl avatar - http://www.nerve.com/files/archive/theremoteisland/2009/02/german-girl-10.jpg

Posted 08 February 2009 - 07:47 PM

It is definitely a case of watching and waiting. Not much is being covered in the media in Edinburgh but if you talk to people on the ground, there is plenty of evidence of constrained circumstances and cutbacks. Anyone I know in the legal profession is currently in shock at how bad things have got for them. Most went into law for the guaranteed job security but are now seeing a different world. I was talking to a guy recently who's a partner in commercial law with a well-known firm and he said he's seeing colleagues laid off for the first time and knows friends who've been laid off and have no idea what to do as they never experienced redundancy before. This is something that will hit Edinburgh badly as even for those that don't lose their jobs, bonuses will be smaller or non-existent and that will have a massive impact on house prices. At the peak of the boom, lawyers etc were being offered mortgages for 5/6 times their income including bonuses as they were seen as a sure bet by lenders.

Ironically, from all the people I talk to, I'm hearing of lawyers, accountants, small start-up tech businesses, marketing staff etc having a hard time but absolutely NO sign yet of (B)*****ers losing their jobs. The rest of us are taking the hit for them. :angry:


Give me till April :lol:
"****** you - you carwash ****"

March 2007 - Suzy Essman.

#1069 Silverity

Silverity

    HPC Poster

  • New Members
  • PipPip
  • 76 posts

Posted 08 February 2009 - 11:35 PM

Very quiet over here in Corstorphine but then again it's winter.

I have tracked the bungalows around here for a year now on my spreadsheet and it has basically ground to a halt - same list of properties for months now. There is a nice bungalow nearby which has sat on OO340K for 5 months now. That would have gone in 2 weeks 18 months ago! They are clearly not budging and are prepared it seems to sit it out. 340K was the typical OO price back at the peak.

Things should begin to pick up in Q2 but nothing like Q2 of 2007!
Silverity

The Silver Analyst

For all things silver ....

#1070 geneer

geneer

    HPC Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,141 posts

Posted 09 February 2009 - 12:59 PM

They are clearly not budging and are prepared it seems to sit it out.


They had better get comfy then. Its going to be a loooooooooooooooong wait. :lol:

#1071 HAIR BEAR CRUNCH

HAIR BEAR CRUNCH

    HPC Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 344 posts
  • Location:LONDON

Posted 09 February 2009 - 01:04 PM

Hitsy theres a few, get Propertybee installed!!

Have to say though was just looking at my firs post in this thread which was about houses in meadowspot in morningside, and blow me down the one i posted about was sold at its fixed price in May 2008:

115 Meadowspot,
Edinburgh,
Midlothian,
EH10 5UY 569,995

So amazingly up to May last year people were still paying near peak prices. It just astounds me that edinburgh types didnt see this coming at all. Maybe its because there has never been a decent crash before??

Do you think they are getting the massage yet that Edinburgh might be subject to the same economic forces as the rest of the world??!!

Edinburgh forget it , its gonna get slammed bigtime. Morningside is gonna decline 35 per cent minimum.

#1072 Scunnered

Scunnered

    HPC Guru

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,820 posts
  • Location:Edinburgh

Posted 10 February 2009 - 12:37 PM

Another development looks as if it's getting wedged in the pipeline. This time it's Caltongate.

Evening News: Caltongate on the brink of collapse.

SERIOUS doubts were growing today over the future of the Caltongate development as the company behind the massive project faces a battle for survival.New accounts posted by the London-based developer Mountgrange showed that it recorded a 24.3 million loss in the year to the end of March 2008.

It is also weighed down by heavy debts and is trying to secure bank support to allow it to survive.

Its auditor has admitted that there is a "material uncertainty that casts doubts about the company's ability to continue as a going concern".
[etc etc]


A man, a map, a canal. Anacapamanama!

#1073 dances with sheeple

dances with sheeple

    I live on HPC!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11,532 posts

Posted 11 February 2009 - 10:51 AM

Another development looks as if it's getting wedged in the pipeline. This time it's Caltongate.

Evening News: Caltongate on the brink of collapse.


The froth is getting cleared nicely, I wonder how long till we hit the bottom of the cup?

#1074 geneer

geneer

    HPC Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,141 posts

Posted 11 February 2009 - 01:32 PM

So heres Jans figures, kindly provided by ESPC.

http://www.housepric...howtopic=103454

Attached File  Jan09.pdf   198.88KB   8 downloads

Discuss.

Showing a 1.2% YOY fall (Compared to -4% YOY in Dec, and -12% in nov).
YOY seems essentially meaningless right now, as its clear they sawtoothed wildly this time last year.
But MOM has seen an increase in average house price.

But as Q3 report showed, the averages hide a multitude of sins.
We're still seeing a massive impact from the 0.5M townhouses.
It does seem a bit disengeneous of ESPC not to make a point of this in the monthly reports.

#1075 Scunnered

Scunnered

    HPC Guru

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,820 posts
  • Location:Edinburgh

Posted 13 February 2009 - 12:58 PM

Have we seen the Evening News?

Housing market slump sweeps capital

It's so good I'll have to quote it in full.

Published Date: 13 February 2009
By MICHAEL BLACKLEY
THE full extent of falling house prices across Edinburgh can be revealed today in a new map of the city showing the worst hit areas.


New authoritative data shows that there are huge disparities in the fall in prices seen in different postal districts of the city. Among the worst hit areas was EH14 – which includes Currie, Juniper Green and Corstorphine, where the price of property has plunged by nearly a quarter since the downturn started to bite in the second half of 2007.

Within postcode sub-regions, of those that had a large enough sample size to allow for a fair comparison, EH14 1 – Craiglockhart – saw the biggest fall in prices, with homes selling for 82,500 less, on average, than 15 months ago.

Yet the prestigious EH3 postcode area, which includes the West End and Stockbridge, has so far escaped the credit crunch relatively unscathed, with average prices declining by only two per cent, or 8500, since the peak of the city's property boom.

Property agents say that areas with huge family homes have seen extremely sluggish sales as, if an average expected decline is around ten per cent, sellers are not willing to accept six-figure sum reduction in prices.

Parts of the city with large proportions of new-build, such as EH6 – which includes large parts of Leith – have also seen prices hit hard.

Simon Rettie, managing director of Edinburgh-based Rettie & Co, which compiled the data from an analysis of Land Registry sources, said: "The number of big homes sold has declined most. For a 1.5 million house, if it goes down ten per cent then that is 150,000. There is no hiding from the fact that is a very big drop.

"Some areas are doing better. There is still a lot of demand for areas like EH3, where there are a lot of good central flats at the 200,000-500,000 mark.

They are still in demand in places like Stockbridge, Comely Bank and parts of the New Town.

"Location is everything and those central areas will be the last to go down and the first to rise."

He said many areas with a lot of new build properties had suffered worst, particularly when they are on development sites that have not been completed.

"A lot of new-build has been severely affected and there are probably more marked reductions than other types (of property).

"There is a problem if a house being sold is on a new-build development that isn't completed. If a developer is selling at one price and you are at another then you have a problem."


Although some districts – such as Cramond (EH4 6) and Inverleith (EH3 7) – saw an even bigger decline in selling prices than Craiglockhart, the number of sales fell below 20 in the final months of last year – so low that they would not allow an accurate and fair comparison. Equally, EH2 sales fell by 76 per cent in the last 15 months but there were only four sales in the last three months of 2008.

Separate data compiled by Rettie also reveals that, of those properties advertised for sale in January, three per cent of sellers reduced the price while their home was on the market.

Such a move is seen as a sign that sellers have had difficulty gathering genuine interest in a property and instead reduced their expectation.

Of those that reduced prices, the biggest decrease was in the EH2 area, where the average originally listed price of 272,500 was taken down to an average dropped price of 252,473 – a 7.6 per cent decline.

Willie Hunter, a director of Edinburgh Solicitors' Property Centre and partner-in-charge at Hunters Residential, said the price changes are partially influenced by sellers modifying expectations.

He said: "People are reducing prices and continuing to be very realistic with prices.

If a property is priced well and sensibly you will still generate competition and be able to set a closing date."

The ESPC saw the number of new properties coming on to the market decline by 75 per cent last month and there are now around 3800 homes available for sale in Edinburgh and the Lothians, 1000 below this time last year.

Mr Hunter said: "If we are going to be witnessing redundancies being made there is inevitably going to be an increase in forced sales, or people cutting losses and getting out, but the vast majority we are putting on at the moment – around 80 per cent – are still those who want to buy another property.

"There are also more saying they want to downsize, tighten their belts and look at something smaller, and they can do that knowing that, although they might not get as much as they would have once got for their property, they won't have to pay as much for a new property."

Leslie Deans, a member of the ELPG group of property solicitors and senior partner at Leslie Deans & Co, said almost all deals were now being negotiated rather than going to closing dates.

He said: "Every area has suffered. Nowhere has been exempt, from the wee starter flat in Westburn, Sighthill or Craigmillar at 100,000 to the top of the market in the best streets of the Grange, Morningside, Barnton or Cramond. Nothing has escaped."

He added that some of the figures – such as those in Craiglockhart, Greenbank, Leith and east Craigentinny, may have been impacted by few sought-after "good quality Edinburgh bungalows" becoming available.

"There is always a lot of demand for them but there's not been many of them available, he said.

"It will be interesting to see now, as the market picks up, if there is a resurgence of these types of properties."


Ahhhh!

Edited by Scunnered, 13 February 2009 - 01:34 PM.

A man, a map, a canal. Anacapamanama!

#1076 ccc

ccc

    I make myself sick

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21,321 posts
  • Location:Edinburgh, JockLand
  • About Me:German Girl avatar - http://www.nerve.com/files/archive/theremoteisland/2009/02/german-girl-10.jpg

Posted 13 February 2009 - 01:38 PM

Have we seen the Evening News?

Housing market slump sweeps capital

It's so good I'll have to quote it in full.



Ahhhh!


My word!! I will add a comment later. Don't want to disappoint people !! I am getting some fairly serious abuse on there !!

Talk about a case of not shooting the messenger.... :rolleyes:
"****** you - you carwash ****"

March 2007 - Suzy Essman.

#1077 Scunnered

Scunnered

    HPC Guru

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,820 posts
  • Location:Edinburgh

Posted 13 February 2009 - 01:52 PM

I am getting some fairly serious abuse on there !!

Talk about a case of not shooting the messenger.... :rolleyes:

Yep. It's all your fault.
A man, a map, a canal. Anacapamanama!

#1078 ccc

ccc

    I make myself sick

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21,321 posts
  • Location:Edinburgh, JockLand
  • About Me:German Girl avatar - http://www.nerve.com/files/archive/theremoteisland/2009/02/german-girl-10.jpg

Posted 13 February 2009 - 03:21 PM

Yep. It's all your fault.


:lol:

Yes and according to #36 Foo my advice/comments are illegal !! I can also be held liable to losses from my 'advice' !!

These people really should think before typing. If that were the case then every single comment section, every newspaper, every TV show and every chat forum in the UK would have to be shut down.

As Ghandi said:

First they ignore you, then they mock you, then they fight you, then you win.

I think we are nearing the 'win' stage very soon. The majority are waking up to this scam - after a long wait.

Not sure exactly why I am taking a kicking for it !! I would have thought chumps like Scott Brown from Warners, Leslie Dean and various other members of the ESPC are a little more culpable than little old me. :lol:
"****** you - you carwash ****"

March 2007 - Suzy Essman.

#1079 Scunnered

Scunnered

    HPC Guru

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,820 posts
  • Location:Edinburgh

Posted 13 February 2009 - 03:41 PM

So I actually went and shelled out 43p for a copy of the Evening News. Here's a photo of the map they referred to:

Attached File  map.jpg   191.41KB   30 downloads

and here's a detailed table of figures for various subregions of Edinburgh postcodes (apparently from Land Registry data via Rettie's)

Attached File  table1.jpg   256.97KB   25 downloadsAttached File  table2.jpg   261.05KB   20 downloadsAttached File  table3.jpg   257.88KB   13 downloadse3.jpg]
The table's very informative.

Actually, the map's quite exciting as well. It appears that prices in EH2 fell by 76% between Q3 2007 and Q4 2008 (OK, it's due to a small sample, but I still like it).

Edited by Scunnered, 13 February 2009 - 03:46 PM.

A man, a map, a canal. Anacapamanama!

#1080 roblpm

roblpm

    HPC Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 698 posts
  • Location:edinburgh

Posted 13 February 2009 - 04:07 PM

Have to say this is all zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Prices are going down!

The transaction volume is so low that % up or down seem completely irrelevant!

Thats it!




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users