[OLDFTB]

British home buyers have disappeared from Bansko, a leading Bulgarian ski resort and until recently a “hot-spot” for people seeking moderately priced holiday properties.

Since the global credit crunch took hold, purchases by UK investors of Bulgarian properties priced between €45,000 ($65,000, £33,500) and €90,000 have fallen sharply, according to Sofia-based estate agents.

Hugh Fraser, of Sofia-based LS Property, said: “Our research suggests that only about 30 apartments were sold in Bansko last month and the buyers were Russians and Greeks.” This compares with sales two years ago of more than 500 properties a month to UK and Irish buyers.

Such a steep decline suggests Bulgaria’s holiday home boom, which has focused on Bansko and Sunny Beach, the leading resort on the Black Sea coast, may be over.

Property developers have been offering discounts of 8-12 per cent in buildings nearing completion in Bansko. Meanwhile, prices for new apartments in Sunny Beach have fallen by 7-8 per cent.

“Attitudes have changed. With house prices stagnating, it is much harder for UK customers to release equity to buy a second home,” said Rossen Dimov, managing director of Rockarch Estates, a London-based agency selling Bulgarian properties.

Mihail Chobanov, chief executive of Bulgarian Properties, one of the country’s biggest estate agencies, believes that about 50 per cent of UK investors who took a punt on the Bulgarian market four years ago are now trying to sell their properties. “Speculative buyers want to cash out and move on,” he said.

While tightening credit conditions have given the market a decisive downward push, Bulgaria’s appeal for UK investors was already starting to fade.

Rapid development at Bansko and Sunny Beach resulted in an over-supply of lower-priced apartments, putting a severe strain on local infrastructure. An estimated 85 per cent of UK investors bought properties off-plan without having visited Bulgaria.

On arrival in the country many were disappointed by mediocre construction quality and local developers’ lack of concern for the environment.

Rental incomes on the Black Sea coast have been lower than expected, according to investors. “Estate agents talked about a six-month season and yearly returns of 6-8 per cent. The reality is more like three months and under 3 per cent,” said David, a Dubai-based IT worker who bought at Sunny Beach two years ago. He declined to give his full name.

Two years ago 90 per cent of Rockarch’s customers were UK investors, including a sizeable number of expatriates living in the Gulf states. Mr Dimov said the client mix changed last summer, with cash-rich Russians replacing buyers from the UK. “In the past six months 60 per cent of sales were to Russians, 10 per cent to Greeks and Poles and only 30 per cent to the British,” Mr Dimov said.

Julia Titova, of Best Real Estate, a Moscow-based estate agent, said that Bulgaria had overtaken Montenegro and Spain as the most popular foreign country for Russians wanting to buy a holiday home. “Bulgaria is seen as an excellent place for family holidays,” Ms Titova said. “It is nearer than the Mediterranean and it is more affordable than the Russian Black Sea resorts.”

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008


Well, surprise, surprise!


http://www.ft.com/cm...?nclick_check=1

[OLDFTB]

Shows how savvy the Russians and other East Europeans are. Let the stupid westerners pile in and pay for the over priced crap then wait until it all turns nasty, move in and buy it up at much cheaper prices.

(Shows you how dim i am because i am first to reply to my own thread!)

[OLDFTB]

Can i just say that i won't interrupt this thread anymore for £1.

[Little Professor]

Interrupt? You started it!

[deadly_doc]

do you know how long the winter / snow season is in bulgaria? and if things are going like the way as suggested in the article, how much do you think the apartments in bansko can be worth by 2009?

[OLDFTB]

deadly_doc, on Feb 9 2008, 08:08 PM, said:

do you know how long the winter / snow season is in bulgaria? and if things are going like the way as suggested in the article, how much do you think the apartments in bansko can be worth by 2009?

do you know how long the winter / snow season is in bulgaria? - No, and i didn't write the article. I can look it up via Google if it will make you happy?

how much do you think the apartments in bansko can be worth by 2009? - IMHO up to 50% less then some "investors" paid for them. What do you think?

[phead]

OLDFTB, on Feb 9 2008, 09:39 PM, said:

how much do you think the apartments in bansko can be worth by 2009? - IMHO up to 50% less then some "investors" paid for them. What do you think?

You must be wrong, cos the TV says so!

Channel Five Live 2-3pm (Now)

"Gary McCausland guides an overseas investor looking to buy profitable property in up-and-coming bulgaria"

"....will increase in value by 30% within a year" "...they are selling like hotcakes"

[alabala]

Strong Fundamentals for Skyocketing rise Beautiful
http://www.indexmund...population.html
http://www.indexmund..._structure.html
http://www.indexmund...death_rate.html
http://www.indexmund....aspx?c=bu&v=27
http://www.indexmund....aspx?c=bu&v=24

http://danskeresearc...MBriefer_UK.pdf

Quote

• The economy continues to grow strongly but it is driven more by consumer spending than investment. The economy shows signs of overheating.
• Food prices pushed inflation into double-digits since August last year. The ballooning current account deficit is a key risk.

Real GDP is more like just above 3%.
http://danskeanalyse...Weeklyweek7.pdf

Quote

Growth has been very strong in the last couple of years in most of the Central and Eastern European countries. However, it looks like growth will slowdown in 2008 and in some countries the slowdown is likely to be quite sharp.
There are four sources of the slowdown in CEE growth. First, inflation spike significantly during espe-cially the second half of 2007 all over the region. This clearly contributes eroding consumers purchasing power and reduce consumption growth. Second, credit conditions have worsened in most countries in region both hitting consumers and investors. Third, property prices have turned south and are now declin-ing in a number of countries in the region. And finally the signs of a slowdown in old Europe are now clear and this is likely weigh on CEE exports during 2008.
All in all, the negative shocks to CEE are quite large and expected slowdown during 2008 is likely to be sharp. Unfortunately, it is the countries with the larger imbalances that have been hit the hardest by these shocks and in these countries the slowdown clearly is already underway. This is for example very visible in the three Baltic countries where retail sales have plummeted in the later part of 2007.
What we are now are seeing in the Baltic economies is likely to be repeated in most other CEE economies in the coming month, even though the slowdown is likely to be less dramatic. Some countries even risk negative GDP growth in the coming quarters. Negative growth is most likely to unfold in the countries where the negative shocks have been the largest and where imbalances are large hence countries like the Baltic states, Bulgaria, Romania and Kazakhstan.

I wonder what's happened to FT
http://www.ft.com/cm...00779fd2ac.html

Quote

Bulgaria booms despite credit crisis
By Theodor Troev and Kerin Hope
Published: November 9 2007

Home owners in many parts of the world have reason to worry about the implications of the international credit crunch. In Bulgaria they do not. Bulgaria’s residential property market is showing unexpected resilience to the impact of the crisis thanks to investment by east Europeans and increasing numbers of local buyers.

Interest from foreign investors remains high as they are aware that Bulgaria still has the lowest property prices in the European Union, says Michail Chobanov, chief executive of Sofia-based Bulgarian Properties.

http://www.sofiaecho..._24392/catid_67

Quote

The average household income for June 2007 was 614.09 leva, the National Statistical Institute (NSI) said.
This is an increase of 21 per cent compared to the same month of 2006, NSI said as quoted by investor.bg
Expenditure for June increased by 23 per cent on annual base, reaching 590.31 leva.
The average income per capita is 243.11 leva and the average expenditure, 233.69 leva.

http://www.reuters.c...r...25?rpc=401&
DNEVNIK - Banking credits jumped 64 percent at end-2007, the highest rise in the last five years, central bank data showed. Credits reached 37 billion levs, or 67 percent of GDP.

This post has been edited by alabala: 11 February 2008 - 12:19 PM

[alabala]

http://www.directfro...gs_porkies.html
http://www.directfro.../nightmare.html

[markinspain]

alabala, on Feb 11 2008, 01:15 PM, said:

http://www.directfro...gs_porkies.html
http://www.directfro.../nightmare.html

Great find Alabala! Obviously, these sort of scams can go on anywhere in the world. I never understood the attraction of ´The East´ myself being ex-communist et al and not understanding western standards. At least in Spain, the sun shines for most of the year. It's even possible to go ski-ing in the morning and swimming in the Med in the afternoon.

[OLDFTB]

Thanks for the links Alabala. (You been a busy lad ain't ya!)

[A Fool & His Borrowed Money]

deadly_doc, on Feb 9 2008, 08:08 PM, said:

do you know how long the winter / snow season is in bulgaria? and if things are going like the way as suggested in the article, how much do you think the apartments in bansko can be worth by 2009?

[alabala]

http://enhr2006-ljub...01_Tsenkova.pdf
2006

Quote

The housing surplus is in the range of
12-14 percent in most countries with Albania (7%) and Montenegro (24%) being the two extreme
situations. In addition to housing surplus, most of the countries have high vacancy rates--as high
as 24 percent in Bulgaria and between 10-14 percent in most of the other countries—which
demonstrates inefficient use of the housing stock.
The distribution of the housing stock by tenure category is characterized by a reduced share of
public housing stock and a predominance of owner occupied housing. In most of the countries
across the region, owner occupation exceeds 90 percent, which is well above the 60 percent
average in the EU.
Despite the economic and social hardships, most households in South East
Europe have mortgage free housing. In some buoyant markets this translates into substantial
wealth 10-12 times the average annual household income.
Notwithstanding preferences for
homeownership, most households in South East Europe overwhelmingly do not have the income
and savings to purchase a home. Low wages and employment uncertainty coupled with escalating
housing costs and mortgage rates have reduced effective housing demand.

http://www.ucalgary....amp/hmarket.pdf

Quote

Besides the low level of housing market activity, there has been an even lower
level of mortgage finance in most reforming socialist economies.

http://www.unece.org...apter%20III.pdf
(Study publ. date: 1994)

Quote

It must be Underlined that Bulgaria's current Dwelling stock can largely meet future demand. The quality and quantity of future housing are crucially dependent on the way in which present stock is preserved.
The available statistical data indicate that existing dwelling stock is new, of reasonably high standard and has acceptable amenities.

have a look at the trend since 1994.


http://www.nsi.bg/Po...opulation_e.htm

Quote

The natural increase rate (difference between births and deaths per 1 000 persons of the average annual population) is minus 5.1 in 2006

http://www.huliq.com...-institute-says

Quote

Bulgaria's population has dropped by 1 million to 7.7 million since the end of communist rule in 1989, a nearly catastrophic decrease in such a small country.
The Balkan state, which joined the European Union in January, has the lowest population growth rate in the 27-nation bloc, according to figures released by the National Statistics Institute on Friday.
If the trend of emigration and a high mortality rate continues, Bulgaria could lose a third of its population in a few decades' time, experts said. According to an analysis by the Washington D.C.-based Population Reference Bureau, published earlier this year, Bulgaria's population will decline by 34 percent from 2005 to 2050, falling to 5 million people.
Despite a steady economic growth of more than 5 percent in the last years, living standards in Bulgaria remain low. The average monthly salary is the equivalent of EUR180 (US$240), and 9 percent of the work force is unemployed, prompting many to seek jobs in other European Union countries.
The country's natural growth rate - the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths per 1,000 annually - stood at minus 5.1 per 1,000 in 2006, the lowest in Europe.
Bulgaria's birth rate decreased from 12.1 per 1,000 in 1990 to 9.6 in the same year - comparable to the rate in Greece, Hungary and Italy. But the mortality rate stood far above the European average at 14.7 per 1,000 in 2006, compared to 8.4 in France and 6.6 in Ireland.
Some 113,438 deaths were recorded in 2006, compared to only 73,978 births.
The current life expectancy is approximately 69 years for men and 76 for women, while the average age of the population stood at 41.4 years. - Pravda.ru

http://www.ired.com/...lgaria-2004.htm

Quote

Two very powerful rumors fire up the market. First, Bulgarians are made to believe that by 2007, the presumed date of official entry into European Union, real estate prices should match those in Central Europe, e.g. Hungary, Czech Republic or Poland. Following this rumor, which has no real foundation whatsoever, prices in Sofia should double or even go higher in the next two, two and a half years. Even if such rumor has no economic foundation, the very fact that buyers believe in it means they see the current price levels still as good deal. Second, private banks believe, also without any reason, that 2007 will open the internal market for new competitors from EU. They will offer mortgage loans at 3-4% instead of contemporary 8-9%. For them it's "now or never" to fish for homebuyers.

These two rumors nourish each other. The higher prices go, the lower mortgage rates fall. The lower the rates are, the more potential buyers go to market. The higher the demand, the higher prices go. The higher the prices, the more people believe in these two rumors. The result is almost doubling of the prices in Sofia and Varna since last September. People prefer paying $500/sq.m now even with higher mortgage rate than wait until 2007 and pay $1,500/sq.m as rumors make them believe. Some banks have announced they won't condition the loans upon the household financial situation proof. Meaning people with ability to pay several monthly payments will get credits that ultimately will turn to be bad. Whether these credits are "good" or not good enough will show up within 1-2 years. Perhaps the general plan is to sell the house or apartments before the buyer becomes insolvent benefiting from the higher price. The last buyer will get the hot potato, which will occur when the market in mid-term starts correcting. We can expect this to happen within 3-4 years, maybe even earlier. What we have just described here isn't an illegal financial scheme, but its results will look like the NYSE crash after February-March 2000. But for the next year, perhaps two, the market will keep current direction, although it isn't sure whether it could keep the present pace of development.

http://www.novinite....ws.php?id=90141

Quote

Lending Growth in Bulgaria Hits 20% in Jan m/m
7 February 2008, Thursday
Domestic credits growth has hit a new record in January as compared to the previous month, local credit consultants said.
Data of Credit Center shows that the average size of the credits drawn out in January 2008 were worth EUR 46,800, marking a 20% increase over December 2007.
Mortgage credits drawn out in euros continue to form the biggest chunk of the loans, accounting for 78% of the total in January.
Mortgage credits with maturity of up to ten years are becoming less popular and account for just 10.63% of all loans in January, Credit Center said.
At the top end of the ranking are mortgage loans with maturity of 20 to 25 years and an average monthly instalment of BGN 700-800. These account for 31.9% of the total loans in January.
Half of Bulgarian mortgage loans borrowers are aged between 25 and 35, making this group of the population the most active users of the banking service.
Experts partly attribute the growth in lending to the rise in households' incomes, more than 40% of which grew from BGN 750 to BGN 1 500 on average in the first month of the year.

and then BG - The National Statistics Institute (NSI) :

http://www.seenews.c...;sFileUserName=

Quote

03/12/07 HOUSEHOLDS INCOME Average per household 09/2007 - 655.02 Levs

http://propertywiseb...d_1460/catid_12

Quote

Bulgaria has one of the world's highest rates of property ownership and tops the chart in Europe, an ERA Bulgaria study shows.
A total of 94 per cent of Bulgarians owned property in 2006, marking an increase of 3 per cent over the previous year, according to the study of international real estate broker network ERA that compared data from seventeen European countries.
Another 60 per cent of Bulgarians own more than one property.
Cyprus and Spain follow Bulgaria in ERA ranking with 85 per cent and 84 per cent of property ownership respectively. At the bottom of the table comes Switzerland with 37.2 per cent.
Europe's average rate of property ownership stands at 68.9 per cent
Teodora Dimitrova, head of the Bulgarian branch of ERA, commented that the high rate of property ownership is a powerful engine for the market, because it boosts the potential for selling and buying real estate.

http://www.betterhom...KET_REPORT.html

Quote

HOMEOWNERSHIP
Bulgarians have one of the highest homeownership rates in the world (94%). This explains why, in the long-run, domestic demand will continue to be the major driver of overall residential property demand.

These people are simply, out of their mind…
Population of Republic of Bulgaria is shrinking, People are emigrating, dying, young family have no intention of bringing up more than one child, if they ever decide to engage in parenthood.
You guys can calculate what should be the average home price in Bulgaria; Fundamentals …
We have Supply and Demand, that drives every bit of the economy and as we can see demand and supply in the property market is quite an impressive driver for the economy as a whole.
The only real cause that would push people to buy new property is that old Communist style buildings will eventually have to be replaced.
There is a slight problem here - affordability.
So again Fundamentals are playing major role, demand and supply is restraint by availability of Money, or credit, and we also have to consider the condition of the properties.
I guess, these old type buildings have to be replaced by new dwellings in about 15 -20 years, but in ex-communist GDR experiences proved that these soviet concrete tower blocks, although ugly as a hell are quite well made and the technology used to produce these panels would last for years, also in most cases they are build to endure earthquakes.
The quality of new developments is below any requirements, control is low, and corruption is widespread.
Other publications also point how the market developed during the transition period and why household would prefer not to take extra risks of extra debt, Bulgarians simply are nation of savers.

Demand for Tourist investments is driven by returns, and it is clear now that the only place where you want to be in Bulgaria is the Commercial Property Sector where we have real shortage of quality office buildings and shopping centres.
Commercial buildings are scarce and the need for modern space have increased dramatically, but again we may experience overbuilding as with tourist developments and other type of properties.
We should definitely avoid being Left Holding the Bag, I don't want to continue with analyses where the market is driven by greed, and laundering money is normal practice…this is just my opinion and examination and I am not an expert.

This post has been edited by alabala: 12 February 2008 - 01:25 AM

[dogbox]

OLDFTB, on Feb 8 2008, 11:44 PM, said:

Rental incomes on the Black Sea coast have been lower than expected, according to investors. “Estate agents talked about a six-month season and yearly returns of 6-8 per cent. The reality is more like three months and under 3 per cent,” said David, a Dubai-based IT worker who bought at Sunny Beach two years ago. He declined to give his full name.

This low rental yield is the main reason I avoided Bulgaria.

WHERE ARE THE RUSSIANS GETTING ALL THIER MONEY?

I'm hearing they are also buying in Morocco in quite large numbers, indeed the developer Im buying from has added Russian language sections to thier sales blurb and web site.

[alabala]

dogbox, on Feb 12 2008, 10:33 AM, said:

This low rental yield is the main reason I avoided Bulgaria.

WHERE ARE THE RUSSIANS GETTING ALL THIER MONEY?

I'm hearing they are also buying in Morocco in quite large numbers, indeed the developer Im buying from has added Russian language sections to thier sales blurb and web site.

In Russia , with more than 90.000 milionaires, money laundering is normal everyday practice...
http://www.deloitte....ring_021506.pdf
http://www.spiegel.d...ional/world/...,499854,00.html