Tonyb69 Posted March 8, 2005 Share Posted March 8, 2005 As some of you will know I divorced about 5 years ago and surrendered my old house to my ex. Financially I was not in a position to buy until about 2 years ago. Now, to be honest, I could have bought but as everyone in my office keeps telling me, at the time all I kept going on about was that houses were over priced and due for a correction. Now of course it seems the correction has arrived and all they say now is, "you've been going on about it for so long it was bound to happen some time". Yes, I could have bought 2 years ago, but I still feel that a small correction at the end of 2002 would have prevented us from being on the edge of something potentially very nasty today (homeowners and renters alike will suffer). Before anyone says anthing about being bitter or missing the boat, I have no regrets. It will be a shame to have to wait a couple more years to buy but I've no intention of dying in the near future so whats the rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Manson Posted March 8, 2005 Share Posted March 8, 2005 2002, I was predicting a 'crash' of 20%, Golman Sachs were predicting 20%, I went through the figures and concluded they were spot on, I still think they were. Given that HP have risen by about 30% since I'm expecting something much worse, more like a 50-70% crash. If you think that sounds crazy I think 4 bed terraced houses on Caversham heights being put on at asking prices of £450,000 is insane. They are fairly valued at about £220k, where I am confident they will be by 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schadenfreude Posted March 8, 2005 Share Posted March 8, 2005 I sold in July 2003 and was completely paranoid about our purchasers pulling out due to the 'impending crash'. Fortunately it all went through. I have no regrets about calling the game to early. One friend sold an identical house in the same estate 5 months later for 4k more than we got. This was the last house to sell on the estate (Nethouseprice checked) despite a number being on the market for a very long time at similar prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yes Posted March 8, 2005 Share Posted March 8, 2005 I have been predicting a HPC since 2000. My wife has begun to think I am the biggest fool on earth with all our friends who bought in 2000 sitting on paper equity worth £250,000. This is going to be my year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undeservingrich Posted March 8, 2005 Share Posted March 8, 2005 I thought the market would turn in 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 I sold an investment property 2003 I sold another 2004 2005 This time I feel sure but I've been wrong before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kam Posted March 8, 2005 Share Posted March 8, 2005 I was screaming Crash imminent around summer 2003 Everyone I knew was saying it will never happen blah blah house will always go up Some friends bought houses (at peak) there starting to suffer with IR and one couple have the loss of one income due to Baby most are now saying "your only saying it because it been on the TV" (they must have put there fingers in their ears when I told them in 2003/2004) or "you've been say it for years it was bound to happen" (ah yes, didn't you keep saying I should get on the ladder it will go up forever) most people have no controll over their lives, they think everyone else is doing it (spend everything/mortgage to the hilt) so I can too. I guarantee most people will blame the government for letting the crash and credit getting out of controll happen I'll get blamed too, it's like one of those pyramid schemes or chain letters. Who ever breaks the chain will have a curse upon them. I sorry for not be so gullible Kam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTMark Posted March 8, 2005 Share Posted March 8, 2005 I believed the crash was "imminent" from early 2003. Seems I was about 14 months out, though buying in say March 2003 as a FTB would still have been a mistake unless you sold in summer 2004, pretty unlikely. I still recall the mentality then and from some people still now that there is no crash, there won't be a crash, it will go on forever, house prices never fall, etc. - that's even more extraordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina Posted March 8, 2005 Share Posted March 8, 2005 I put my house on the market in Autumn 2003 because I could see what was coming. Everyone I know politely listened to my rants about 'this can't carry on - it will end in tears' but carried on MEWing and moving up. 'I can't see that happening' was a common response. Still is with some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Once in a lifetime Posted March 8, 2005 Share Posted March 8, 2005 Working in the print industry I saw a recession coming just before 2000 Print, like the Car industry seem to be affected before other industries they are the first budget cut in any company’s expenditure. I wasn’t wrong I was made redundant the following year after the company struggled with hardly any work all year! In 2002 I sold a property and rented to break a long and complicated chain I wasn’t trying to gain on the property market by waiting for a crash! 6 months into my rental agreement I found a property to buy. Close to exchanging contracts, gave notice to the landlord and then was made redundant again !! In the period after, prices just went ballistic, so I gave up and have been waiting ever since misinformation in the media got my hopes up several times only to be disappointed I said to my wife once it becomes ‘official’ (widely reported) we’ll get two bottles of champagne one of now the other to be opened in our new home. I’ve waited and put my life on hold for too long now. You tend to gauge that by watching other people move on. A lot of posts and links in the forum point to the obvious, but still no official consensus Now the signs are so strong (EA’s going to the wall, Banks lending 3.5x only) If it doesn’t happen this year it never will! Responsible lending at long last, estate agents getting to know what it feels like to be priced out! (of a job) About bloody time. I’m off to buy two bottles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayAreaBear Posted March 8, 2005 Share Posted March 8, 2005 Sold in Spring 2003. 18 months before the top. I see from nethouse prices that my sale was the last transaction on my old street. I think that illustrates the difficulty in selling a house "at the top" because the transaction volume fails first. Proceeds 100% positioned in inflation hedges. No regrets. Another few months and I'll be singing in the car (thats a dangerous sign). BAB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Crash Posted March 8, 2005 Share Posted March 8, 2005 I thought the market would turn in1998 1999 2000 2001Â 2002 I sold an investment property 2003 I sold another 2004 2005 This time I feel sure but I've been wrong before <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I predicted slowdown in 2001 and if Binnie hadn't knocked down the trade centre, I think it may have happened In 2001 prices were already high in the UK, but not massively and given the UK attitude on property, I think 2001 prices could have been maintained without a HPC 2001 houseprices were not cheap for FTB's, but not impossible Then post 9/11 artificially low IR's - massive global liquidity/global HPI - we know the rest In 2001 I didn't predict 9/11 (most people didn't) PS Spare a thought for poor old Binnie, he used to have luxury houses and the run of Afganistan and Sudan, now he has had to downsize to a cave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBFTB Posted March 8, 2005 Share Posted March 8, 2005 I only started looking at houses in earnest last year. Straight off I smelled a rat. At first I thought I was imagining it, but I began to see a large gap between what people who had bought years back had got, and what people in 2004 were getting for their money. It was about that point I began to wonder what was going on. I continued looking, not sure quite what to do, then began to suspect more and more that something very wrong was on the financial horizon. I reasoned that if people were getting into such debt, they'd have to pay it off sooner or later, and that would cause them to reign in their spending. Either that or they would be like me, saving and saving and saving. This in turn would cause retail sales, house sales, car sales etc. to start slowing as people tightened their belts. Finally, I read a Money Week article all about the bubble and got a whole load more facts and figures that confirmed my suspicions. I'm not sure when it will happen, because I think it's very hard to judge. In particular I don't think people take into account how much momentum there is in these things. But I think things are heading down, and I think by the end of the summer things will definitely be heading downwards fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dee Monic Posted March 8, 2005 Share Posted March 8, 2005 once it becomes ‘official’ (widely reported) we’ll get two bottles of champagne one of now the other to be opened in our new home.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> Heh, heh. We've been doing something similar, except we celebrated exchange of contracts and will do all the anniversaries of completion of our sale until we buy again. For buying I expect we will do exchange of contracts and completion. I may nick your idea and suggest we do the next IR rise too. Cheers! We have decided to tone down what we say in public now, definitely heads below the parapet time. The herd will be looking for people to blame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crash 2005 Posted March 8, 2005 Share Posted March 8, 2005 I was actively reading this site during late spring 2004, sold house to rent in august 2004 in my opinion the number of buyers able to afford had already dropped off by then, no regrets, the house had increased in value by 48% in 18 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina Posted March 8, 2005 Share Posted March 8, 2005 This is very regional and also depends on market segment. In Berkshire I know from Land Registry data prices that the 4 bed detached end of the market topped out in Spring/Summer 2003. That was the last time you saw properties selling in a week - at or above the asking price. The FTB market continued climbing - or should I say the BTL market, until Spring/Summer 2004. Since we have had lots of stagnation and properties selling anything from 5k to 100k below original asking prices (depending which end of the market) - sometimes (at the top end) after a year on the market. Now we have masses on the market. And blocks of flats with For Sale and To Let boards everywhere. There is a forest of EA boards in every street. And Estate Agents going broke. Gentlemen, the crash is upon us. It will be a rocky ride involving a very unpleasant recession. I have a feeling this is going to make 1929 look like a mild correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uro_who Posted March 8, 2005 Share Posted March 8, 2005 I sold in May 2003. Simply failed to find another property to buy. I felt a crash was coming but heh it's only money and I've got another 29 years to go in this work business (at least!) Things slowed down like mad late summer of 2003 and I thought I was seriously clever. Had agents calling me about properties I'd put in offers way under the asking price. I over cooked the cheekiness and lost one I quite liked. Asking prices surged a further 50% or so since then although hardly any in the bracket I'm looking at have sold. As for now, I know a crash is coming. But so is our next child in a week or so. I've therefore got several reasons to continue the STR kick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest muttley Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 Sold in Dec 2003,having been gazzumped.The house had been on the market for 12 months so we assumed we got a good price.I now believe we sold before the peak. We were actively viewing until April 2004 when I became convinced that prices had become unrealistic. Even now I am not convinced about the crash theory being inevitible.I feel fairly sure they won't be taking off again and I am happy to rent as long as it takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
letitcomedown Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 Mid 2001 I realized it was becoming unrealistic when our neighbours much, much larger house went for 240k and our place was valued at 125 when we remortgaged. Sold Spring 2003 for same figure as our neighbours had - the estate agents valuation was 40k over our own guestimate, I really thought we had cut it fine but there was a rebounce after the Iraq war. Most people I put forward the idea of a HPC thought the idea was ridiculous, a couple I saved from very bad purchases. I printed off copies of the Economist housing survey Spring 2003 for them. Found this site summer 2004. Those houses like mine still are up for 230k now, so there has already been a small decline, still none are selling. I knew the people who had grown up in these houses 20 years ago, they were teachers, bank clerks, car mechanics. Not city traders or company directors. When they're back to 120-130k I will bite again, that is my guideline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreekBear Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 Nov 2001, I was going to get a mortgage, I then saw some stats with the income to HP ratio and decided something was fishy. So I pulled out and kept doing my home ever more so. I figured the crash to materialize starting 2003-4, but looks like it'll be 2004-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 in 98/99 i realised i should to buy otherwise i would missout, asked dad to help me buy a house as unfortunatly i was still at university/doing my placement year. A nice 3 bedroom house cost about 60/70k at the time, seemed like a bargain to me. University Placement Salatry of 12k, dada didnt/couldnt afford to help me out. Didnt consider BTL as i was still at university in 2001 just left university and realised things were getting VERY silly, newspaper articles about prices going up by thousands a mounth etc etc, said to my gf at the time we needed to buy otherwise we would missout, she was still at university and i was on 17k. Didnt buy because i wasnt earing enough on my salary to buy a house (didnt think to lie about my income). Octoberish 2003, i was adiment that prices were too high, toyed with idea of a crash Jan 2004, got a pay rise to 27k, realised this was the first opertunity i had ever had in my life to buy a house on my own!!!!! prices seemed to be droping/slowing, my girlfriend at the time (who worked for MBNA) said experts were expecting the market to level off by summer 2004. Didnt buy, realised we were heading for a crash, and was currently wealthier renting. Talked to estate agents in Jan saying i believed intrest rates would go up, they all said you could never predict these things and i shouldnt worry. Found this site later in 2004 in google searching for 'house price crash' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 STR'd in late 2002 as the talk was all about moving in on Iraq. Since then houe went up about 5-10% - I am not in the slightest bothered by that as we made 100% on the original 1994 purchase. Just remember in London - and most of the SE, prices are net unchanged (or lower) than Jan 2003: OVER 2 YEARS AGO! National averages are meaningless as Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are showing 30-50% +ve last year - all down to stupid BTLers and clever EAs and developers. Business is business even though 10s of 000s will lose their shirt - a similar title to a proposition I put forward at a formal debate last year in my local community. The fact I was resoundly outvoted simply confirmed even more strongly my belief. The voters were mainly retirees who are the principal recipients of the boom. Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyb69 Posted March 9, 2005 Author Share Posted March 9, 2005 Thanks for the replies. Yr 2000 through to Q1 2003 seems to be the time most of you decided the market had become overpriced and needed correction. Have you ever wondered why when so many poeple around you are still in denial, your veiw on the market was/is so different? Is it because we are individual and can think outside the box (David Brent ), we don't have a herd mentality, or that we work in enviroments where our financial knowledge has taught us how to spot an overpriced asset? Does it also mean that we will be the first to spot the bottom of the market and buy just before the masses rush in again at the start of the next bubble, or will our bearish instincts cause us to miss the boat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 Does it also mean that we will be the first to spot the bottom of the market and buy just before the masses rush in again at the start of the next bubble, or will our bearish instincts cause us to miss the boat? I believe many of us may jump in too early, personally knew when prices were low and i needed to buy, just couldnt at the time... I dont think masses will rush in at the bottom, if you look at the last crash it takes along time for this market to turn. If lots of people are rushing in things have started to boom already and you have missed the bottom of the trough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichM Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 1) When I realised that even if we did buy, we'd never be able to move 'up the ladder' 2) MEW was contributing about 7% of GDP or consumer spending (it's now at 8%) When this gets going it will get very messy indeed, so decided to steer well clear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yonmon Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 Spring 2004, when it became evident that the UK had reached the top of a very big bubble. Joined HPC a few months later. The clincher was seeing the bubble fan out to places like Swansea and Middlesborough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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