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When Did You Predict A Crash/slowdown


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#1 Tonyb69

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Posted 08 March 2005 - 02:36 PM

As some of you will know I divorced about 5 years ago and surrendered my old house to my ex.

Financially I was not in a position to buy until about 2 years ago.

Now, to be honest, I could have bought but as everyone in my office keeps telling me, at the time all I kept going on about was that houses were over priced and due for a correction. Now of course it seems the correction has arrived and all they say now is, "you've been going on about it for so long it was bound to happen some time".

Yes, I could have bought 2 years ago, but I still feel that a small correction at the end of 2002 would have prevented us from being on the edge of something potentially very nasty today (homeowners and renters alike will suffer).

Before anyone says anthing about being bitter or missing the boat, I have no regrets. It will be a shame to have to wait a couple more years to buy but I've no intention of dying in the near future so whats the rush.

#2 Timmy Manson

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Posted 08 March 2005 - 02:41 PM

2002, I was predicting a 'crash' of 20%, Golman Sachs were predicting 20%, I went through the figures and concluded they were spot on, I still think they were.

Given that HP have risen by about 30% since I'm expecting something much worse, more like a 50-70% crash.

If you think that sounds crazy I think 4 bed terraced houses on Caversham heights being put on at asking prices of £450,000 is insane. They are fairly valued at about £220k, where I am confident they will be by 2008.
I firmly believe that tomorrow holds the possibility for new technologies, astounding discoveries, and a reprieve from my obligations.

#3 schadenfreude

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Posted 08 March 2005 - 02:49 PM

I sold in July 2003 and was completely paranoid about our purchasers pulling out due to the 'impending crash'. Fortunately it all went through. I have no regrets about calling the game to early. One friend sold an identical house in the same estate 5 months later for 4k more than we got. This was the last house to sell on the estate (Nethouseprice checked) despite a number being on the market for a very long time at similar prices.

#4 yes

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Posted 08 March 2005 - 02:52 PM

I have been predicting a HPC since 2000. My wife has begun to think I am the biggest fool on earth with all our friends who bought in 2000 sitting on paper equity worth £250,000. This is going to be my year!

#5 undeservingrich

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Posted 08 March 2005 - 02:57 PM

I thought the market would turn in

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002 I sold an investment property
2003 I sold another
2004
2005 This time I feel sure but I've been wrong before

#6 Kam

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Posted 08 March 2005 - 02:58 PM

I was screaming Crash imminent around summer 2003


Everyone I knew was saying it will never happen blah blah house will always go up


Some friends bought houses (at peak) there starting to suffer with IR and one couple have the loss of one income due to Baby


most are now saying
"your only saying it because it been on the TV" (they must have put there fingers in their ears when I told them in 2003/2004)

or

"you've been say it for years it was bound to happen" (ah yes, didn't you keep saying I should get on the ladder it will go up forever)

most people have no controll over their lives, they think everyone else is doing it (spend everything/mortgage to the hilt) so I can too.

I guarantee most people will blame the government for letting the crash and credit getting out of controll happen

I'll get blamed too, it's like one of those pyramid schemes or chain letters. Who ever breaks the chain will have a curse upon them. I sorry for not be so gullible


Kam
"The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight-of-hand that was ever invented. Banking was conceived in iniquity and born in sin. .........But if you want to continue to be slaves of the bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let the bankers continue to create money and control credit."
Sir Josiah Stamp. (1880-1941) Director at the Bank of England in the 1920's, the second richest man in Britain.


#7 DTMark

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Posted 08 March 2005 - 03:34 PM

I believed the crash was "imminent" from early 2003. Seems I was about 14 months out, though buying in say March 2003 as a FTB would still have been a mistake unless you sold in summer 2004, pretty unlikely.

I still recall the mentality then and from some people still now that there is no crash, there won't be a crash, it will go on forever, house prices never fall, etc. - that's even more extraordinary.

#8 Marina

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Posted 08 March 2005 - 03:38 PM

I put my house on the market in Autumn 2003 because I could see what was coming. Everyone I know politely listened to my rants about 'this can't carry on - it will end in tears' but carried on MEWing and moving up. 'I can't see that happening' was a common response. Still is with some people.

#9 Once in a lifetime

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Posted 08 March 2005 - 04:20 PM

Working in the print industry I saw a recession coming just before 2000
Print, like the Car industry seem to be affected before other industries
they are the first budget cut in any company’s expenditure.
I wasn’t wrong I was made redundant the following year after the
company struggled with hardly any work all year!

In 2002 I sold a property and rented to break a long and complicated chain
I wasn’t trying to gain on the property market by waiting for a crash!
6 months into my rental agreement I found a property to buy.
Close to exchanging contracts, gave notice to the landlord and then was made
redundant again !!

In the period after, prices just went ballistic, so I gave up and have been waiting ever since

misinformation in the media got my hopes up several times only to be disappointed
I said to my wife once it becomes ‘official’ (widely reported) we’ll get two bottles
of champagne one of now the other to be opened in our new home.

I’ve waited and put my life on hold for too long now. You tend to gauge that by
watching other people move on.

A lot of posts and links in the forum point to the obvious, but still no official consensus
Now the signs are so strong (EA’s going to the wall, Banks lending 3.5x only)
If it doesn’t happen this year it never will!

Responsible lending at long last, estate agents getting to know what it feels like to be priced out!
(of a job)

About bloody time. I’m off to buy two bottles :)

#10 BayAreaBear

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Posted 08 March 2005 - 05:20 PM

Sold in Spring 2003. 18 months before the top. I see from nethouse prices that my sale was the last transaction on my old street. I think that illustrates the difficulty in selling a house "at the top" because the transaction volume fails first. Proceeds 100% positioned in inflation hedges.

No regrets. Another few months and I'll be singing in the car (thats a dangerous sign).

BAB

#11 88Crash

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Posted 08 March 2005 - 05:41 PM

I thought the market would turn in

1998
1999
2000
2001 
2002 I sold an investment property
2003 I sold another
2004
2005 This time I feel sure but I've been wrong before

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


I predicted slowdown in 2001 and if Binnie hadn't knocked down the trade centre, I think it may have happened

In 2001 prices were already high in the UK, but not massively and given the UK attitude on property, I think 2001 prices could have been maintained without a HPC

2001 houseprices were not cheap for FTB's, but not impossible

Then post 9/11 artificially low IR's - massive global liquidity/global HPI - we know the rest

In 2001 I didn't predict 9/11 (most people didn't)

PS Spare a thought for poor old Binnie, he used to have luxury houses and the run of Afganistan and Sudan, now he has had to downsize to a cave!

#12 JBFTB

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Posted 08 March 2005 - 05:43 PM

I only started looking at houses in earnest last year. Straight off I smelled a rat. At first I thought I was imagining it, but I began to see a large gap between what people who had bought years back had got, and what people in 2004 were getting for their money.

It was about that point I began to wonder what was going on. I continued looking, not sure quite what to do, then began to suspect more and more that something very wrong was on the financial horizon. I reasoned that if people were getting into such debt, they'd have to pay it off sooner or later, and that would cause them to reign in their spending. Either that or they would be like me, saving and saving and saving. This in turn would cause retail sales, house sales, car sales etc. to start slowing as people tightened their belts.

Finally, I read a Money Week article all about the bubble and got a whole load more facts and figures that confirmed my suspicions. I'm not sure when it will happen, because I think it's very hard to judge. In particular I don't think people take into account how much momentum there is in these things. But I think things are heading down, and I think by the end of the summer things will definitely be heading downwards fast.
mortgage
You can't make the impossible possible by hallucinating new numbers - Dilbert

#13 Dee Monic

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Posted 08 March 2005 - 05:47 PM

once it becomes ‘official’ (widely reported) we’ll get two bottles  of champagne one of now the other to be opened in our new home.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



Heh, heh. We've been doing something similar, except we celebrated exchange of contracts and will do all the anniversaries of completion of our sale until we buy again. For buying I expect we will do exchange of contracts and completion. I may nick your idea and suggest we do the next IR rise too. Cheers!

We have decided to tone down what we say in public now, definitely heads below the parapet time. The herd will be looking for people to blame.

#14 crash 2005

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Posted 08 March 2005 - 05:52 PM

I was actively reading this site during late spring 2004,

sold house to rent in august 2004

in my opinion the number of buyers able to afford had already dropped off by then,

no regrets, the house had increased in value by 48% in 18 months.

#15 Marina

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Posted 08 March 2005 - 11:33 PM

This is very regional and also depends on market segment. In Berkshire I know from Land Registry data prices that the 4 bed detached end of the market topped out in Spring/Summer 2003. That was the last time you saw properties selling in a week - at or above the asking price.

The FTB market continued climbing - or should I say the BTL market, until Spring/Summer 2004.

Since we have had lots of stagnation and properties selling anything from 5k to 100k below original asking prices (depending which end of the market) - sometimes (at the top end) after a year on the market.

Now we have masses on the market. And blocks of flats with For Sale and To Let boards everywhere. There is a forest of EA boards in every street. And Estate Agents going broke.

Gentlemen, the crash is upon us. It will be a rocky ride involving a very unpleasant recession.

I have a feeling this is going to make 1929 look like a mild correction.




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