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" It's Different This Time"


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#31 nervous northerner

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Posted 02 March 2005 - 02:22 PM

More singles

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Yet in another thread you state that on the basis of 2 incomes affordability is no problem.

Your points are poorly thought out and contradictory at best.

#32 nervous northerner

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Posted 02 March 2005 - 02:32 PM

B2L are stubborn long - termists

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I find the mantra 'i'm in it for the long term' utterly fascinating. The BTL herd appear to have no concept of trading and rotating investments to achieve better returns and appear to employ no trading or stop-loss strategy to what are effectively leveraged investments. I hear that 1/5 of all BTL are now subsidising their 'investments' on a monthly basis.

If a company in which I own shares came knocking at my door for money every month, I would have no hesitation in 'releasing the hounds'.

#33 munimula

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Posted 02 March 2005 - 02:36 PM

I think there is a strong economic argument for house prices going nowhere in the next 20 years - see my signature. Long term investment my @rse!
'The property market's twilight period is coming to an end. The past few months have been like the first two hours on the deck of the RMS Titanic after it struck the iceberg. To start with, no one could believe it was sinking. The ship was still well above water and even as the first lifeboats were lowered into the sea, many passengers were reluctant to leave.' Edmund Conway, Telegraph 03/05/2008

#34 innocent

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Posted 02 March 2005 - 02:40 PM

I think there is a strong economic argument for house prices going nowhere in the next 20 years - see my signature. Long term investment my @rse!

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This is really going to screw the ppl who opted out of a pension for bricks & mortar.

#35 zorn

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Posted 02 March 2005 - 02:50 PM

I think there is a strong economic argument for house prices going nowhere in the next 20 years - see my signature. Long term investment my @rse!

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Your signature implies that house prices will more than double over the next 20 years. That zero growth you mention is zero growth after inflation. 2% inflation per year for 20 years adds 121% to house prices over that period -- not quite "going nowhere". Although not a good return on investment, either.

#36 Timmy Manson

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Posted 02 March 2005 - 02:58 PM

Your signature implies that house prices will more than double over the next 20 years. That zero growth you mention is zero growth after inflation. 2% inflation per year for 20 years adds 121% to house prices over that period -- not quite "going nowhere". Although not a good return on investment, either.

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Your argument is just about justifiable for someone who bought there house entirely for cash, but for the vast majority of buyers they will be paying interest rates well above the rate of inflation on the mortgage, so even if hp grow at 0 versus inflation the home owner has still handed over tens of thousands to the bank in interest.

On a £150k initial mortage about £80k worth at current rates. That's quite a loss!!!
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#37 munimula

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Posted 02 March 2005 - 03:11 PM

Your signature implies that house prices will more than double over the next 20 years. That zero growth you mention is zero growth after inflation. 2% inflation per year for 20 years adds 121% to house prices over that period -- not quite "going nowhere". Although not a good return on investment, either.

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If it's only gone up with inflation then it hasn't actually gone up in value in relation to all other costs so I'd say that's 'going nowhere', as an investment it won't have made you anything over inflation.
'The property market's twilight period is coming to an end. The past few months have been like the first two hours on the deck of the RMS Titanic after it struck the iceberg. To start with, no one could believe it was sinking. The ship was still well above water and even as the first lifeboats were lowered into the sea, many passengers were reluctant to leave.' Edmund Conway, Telegraph 03/05/2008

#38 nervous northerner

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Posted 02 March 2005 - 03:39 PM

Your signature implies that house prices will more than double over the next 20 years. That zero growth you mention is zero growth after inflation. 2% inflation per year for 20 years adds 121% to house prices over that period -- not quite "going nowhere". Although not a good return on investment, either.

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I'm going straight to the shops to buy up all their bread which i'll then freeze for 20 years. Then I'll defrost it and sell it for at least double what I paid. Foolproof investment and of course there's no chance of a bread price crash.

Money illusion is one hell of a concept, dont you think?

#39 dogbox

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Posted 02 March 2005 - 03:44 PM

Ahhh,

My point is that while long term fixed rates are available to todays FTBer, they are at significantly higher rates than many other mortgage products

Most are going for short term discounted rates with nasty tie ins to SVRs.

What happens to them when IRs rise?
Or taxes rise?
Or the price of goods goes up faster than the inflationary measure (and their wages)?

Can you answer that dogbox, can you? :P  :P  :P  :P


5 year fixed rate Nationwide - 4.95%
5 year fixed rate Northern Rock 5.19% (or 10 yrs +)

As for discounted rates no one I know plumps for one with a tie - in after the discount ends, they simply remo.

Your problem is u see the world as a place of danger and risk where everything has a downside. Doesnt look like you will setting up your own business, errr ... ever.
And God said unto Luke 'come forth and thee shall have eternal life', but Luke came fifth and won a toaster.

'My children are Christian' is like saying 'my children are Conservatives' - at least have the common decency to let the little blighters make up thier own minds




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