Are Things Turning Bullish?

[volvos60]

I am getting this horrible feeling that the media are turning more bullish following the bearish articles towards the end of last year. Just look at the media postings pasted on this site - not many bearish stories of late.

Is the general public / media sentiment turning again, so soon after things were looking like they were lining up for a HPC?

Also, I only know personally 2 people trying to sell in my area (Barnet/Finchley/Southgate). One has a 4 bed detached modern house who is trying to sell for £450K - only 1 viewing in 2 months. However, my neighbour put his 3 bed semi on 2 weeks ago for £309K. He had 11 viewings in the first week & accepted an offer of £305K. Obviously he has not exchanged contracts & a lot can happen in between, including Guzundering, but it seems to me the market may have life in it yet.

I do happen to feel my neighbour put his house on at maybe £10K below 'market price', but maybe he felt it better to price low, get a close enough offer & accept, rather that aim high & not have any interest.

Is my gut feel that things are not so bearish & sentiment is turning bullish shared by anyone else here?

[geometric]

I am getting this horrible feeling that the media are turning more bullish following the bearish articles towards the end of last year. Just look at the media postings pasted on this site - not many bearish stories of late.

Is the general public / media sentiment turning again, so soon after things were looking like they were lining up for a HPC?

Also, I only know personally 2 people trying to sell in my area (Barnet/Finchley/Southgate). One has a 4 bed detached modern house who is trying to sell for £450K - only 1 viewing in 2 months. However, my neighbour put his 3 bed semi on 2 weeks ago for £309K. He had 11 viewings in the first week & accepted an offer of £305K. Obviously he has not exchanged contracts & a lot can happen in between, including Guzundering, but it seems to me the market may have life in it yet.

I do happen to feel my neighbour put his house on at maybe £10K below 'market price', but maybe he felt it better to price low, get a close enough offer & accept, rather that aim high & not have any interest.

Is my gut feel that things are not so bearish & sentiment is turning bullish shared by anyone else here?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am in central Scotland and stock is definitely moving here, it pains me to say..

[Bluelady]

I am getting this horrible feeling that the media are turning more bullish following the bearish articles towards the end of last year. Just look at the media postings pasted on this site - not many bearish stories of late.

Is the general public / media sentiment turning again, so soon after things were looking like they were lining up for a HPC?

Also, I only know personally 2 people trying to sell in my area (Barnet/Finchley/Southgate). One has a 4 bed detached modern house who is trying to sell for £450K - only 1 viewing in 2 months. However, my neighbour put his 3 bed semi on 2 weeks ago for £309K. He had 11 viewings in the first week & accepted an offer of £305K. Obviously he has not exchanged contracts & a lot can happen in between, including Guzundering, but it seems to me the market may have life in it yet.

I do happen to feel my neighbour put his house on at maybe £10K below 'market price', but maybe he felt it better to price low, get a close enough offer & accept, rather that aim high & not have any interest.

Is my gut feel that things are not so bearish & sentiment is turning bullish shared by anyone else here?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're right, a lot can happen between accepting an offer and exchange but I imagine he should worry more about his buyer not being able to sell their property or get the higher mortgage they need than about gazundering, that tends to be a ftb trick. If you're part of a chain, with a link below you, it's not a risk you'd be prepared to take.

[FernandoMorientes]

I am getting this horrible feeling that the media are turning more bullish following the bearish articles towards the end of last year. Just look at the media postings pasted on this site - not many bearish stories of late.

Is the general public / media sentiment turning again, so soon after things were looking like they were lining up for a HPC?

Also, I only know personally 2 people trying to sell in my area (Barnet/Finchley/Southgate). One has a 4 bed detached modern house who is trying to sell for £450K - only 1 viewing in 2 months. However, my neighbour put his 3 bed semi on 2 weeks ago for £309K. He had 11 viewings in the first week & accepted an offer of £305K. Obviously he has not exchanged contracts & a lot can happen in between, including Guzundering, but it seems to me the market may have life in it yet.

I do happen to feel my neighbour put his house on at maybe £10K below 'market price', but maybe he felt it better to price low, get a close enough offer & accept, rather that aim high & not have any interest.

Is my gut feel that things are not so bearish & sentiment is turning bullish shared by anyone else here?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not really they have always had a bulish stance just look at the amount of b*llox on your TV every other night (ie location location location) etc etc....

You should remember the media was bullish, as were many ********-ysts on tech stocks prior and during the big tech crash of 2000 I know I am in the industry, it took them 6 months to catch on!

I really wouldn,t worry what the media say they talk sh*te at the best of times go with your own thoughts "feel the force Luke" whatever they may be.

[dogbox]

Is my gut feel that things are not so bearish & sentiment is turning bullish shared by anyone else here?

Certainly is me old mucca. Its a shame more bears didnt have the right 'gut feeling' in December when I urged them to 'mop up bargains' only to be ridiculed for my lack of 'evidence' (read school boy HPC graphs and economic theories).

HPC Bears berated my 'gut feel / feed - back from the streets' approach. Hey, ZZ, remember I told you to get your head out of your books and reports.

'Cant see the woods for the trees' springs to mind.

[Casual Observer]

Certainly is me old mucca. Its a shame more bears didnt have the right 'gut feeling' in December when I urged them to 'mop up bargains' only to be ridiculed for my lack of 'evidence' (read school boy HPC graphs and economic theories).

HPC Bears berated my 'gut feel / feed - back from the streets' approach. Hey, ZZ, remember I told you to get your head out of your books and reports.

'Cant see the woods for the trees' springs to mind.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Dogbox, have you sold your flat yet?

Dogbox, why are you selling it if prices are still rising?

[dogbox]

Dogbox, have you sold your flat yet?

Dogbox, why are you selling it if prices are still rising?

I havent said prices are rising. I stated in December that that was the time to secure a low sentiment bargain, but that the apparent price falls would be reversed by Spring 05 as positive sentiment wells - up.

Ive never felt a 'crash' was on the cards.

Im selling as I wish to diversify into commercial property as I have a 'gut feel' (sorry nothing scientific) that commercial will easily out - strip residential capital gains in the next 3 years.

[dogbox]

Dogbox, have you sold your flat yet?

Not sold yet but its only been on just over a week. There are viewings booked in for this week. Im asking what I think is a very high cheeky price. I only paid £88000 10 months ago and am now asking £104000. Probably wont get that.

[volvos60]

The thing is I have, for the past couple of years, felt that prices are unsustainable & that all the logic I apply to the situation says that prices must crash. I also find that many people here share that view.

The problem is, especially with a board of generally like minded posters, is that sometimes you need to stand back, make an independant observation of the things you see around you, rather that what you want to see & hear, & take stock.

At the moment I am undecided as to what actually is happening as sentiment is a real driver as the past 10 years have shown. Eventually economic reality must win - or will it? I am genuinly not trying to be provocative - just that I am starting to have doubts

[Casual Observer]

I havent said prices are rising. I stated in December that that was the time to secure a low sentiment bargain, but that the apparent price falls would be reversed by Spring 05 as positive sentiment wells - up.

Ive never felt a 'crash' was on the cards.

Im selling as I wish to diversify into commercial property as I have a 'gut feel' (sorry nothing scientific) that commercial will easily out - strip residential capital gains in the next 3 years.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If prices aren't going to rise why would it have been a good time to buy? Surely it's better to keep saving if prices aren't going to increase? What's your advice to potential buyers now, bearing in mind you're selling?

[Guest wrongmove]

The problem is, especially with a board of generally like minded posters, is that sometimes you need to stand back, make an independant observation of the things you see around you, rather that what you want to see & hear, & take stock.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

V60 - try browsing a few bull boards to get a more varied view, or reading the bull posts here.

Eventually economic reality must win - or will it?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Someone once said that "Markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent", but luckily, by not buying you are not losing hard cash on a daily basis. If you feel that prices will eventually drop, you can afford to be patient.

[jpjh]

You really only have to wait a couple of months now.

Both halifax and nationwide figures are down (they once again seasonally adjusted them up. They don't have that luxury anymore as seasonal figures say the prices should go up so they have to adjust down)

Land reg figures are down

Mortgage approvals ooh went up a tiny bit..but still massively down even after the seasonal adjustments.

It's all there. Yes of course some sales will go through. Of course there will be buyers still. But ask yourself this....11 viewings in a week and he still had to accept an offer below asking price!!!!!!!!! In the past rising market the buyers would be trying to outbid one another. Now 10 people think that property is worth less than £305k, plus it hasn't gone through. My neighbours have had a buyer for 2 months and still haven't exchanged.

It matters not what the press says as they have failed to pick up on so many basics..either they are too stupid or getting paid not to report it (which is fairly evident from the number of pages of property on sale in all newspapers).

Wait until the spring bounce becomes a spring squelch and then see what new recovery the bulls suggest will "save" the market.

[dogbox]

If prices aren't going to rise why would it have been a good time to buy? Surely it's better to keep saving if prices aren't going to increase? What's your advice to potential buyers now, bearing in mind you're selling?

-------------

December was good to buy as no one was buying. You may still get the odd 'deperato' bargain (eg - a vendor whos commited to new one but just lost thier own buyer).

So, the falls of the last few months are being reversed, thats why it isnt a bad time to buy.

Also you need to forget past economic expeirience because the majority of people are now taking interest only loans so affordability is some 30% higher than under a capital repayment regime.

Lastly, it seems the great unwashed are no longer interested in saving via stock - market / pensions. Imagine a fund manager returns 10% capital growth in a year. Not bad, until u consider the 5% bid - offer spread and 1 - 2% fund management charges. You end up with 4% which is taxed, and the stock market is percieved as hugely volatile and speculative. Most folk dont understand it. See, many folk will just prefer property. They can see it, touch it maybe even use it for kids on day and hopefully along the way get some capital growth.

Welcome to the new market era.

[nickd]

The frustrating thing is that though we can be fairly certain prices will return to trend, we can also be certain it will not happen any time soon. With low inflation it is likely to take a very long time indeed, and there will be a soft landing, unfortunately for those of us who'd like a house next year..........

I believe prices won't go much higher than enough to return a not-obviously-bad investment. In other words, while most BTLs are getting what they percieve to be a reasonable return , even if when you do the maths its not great, they won't sell. Not that many new people will buy. Sales will be down, agents will go bust, but, prices will remain stagnant.

There will be no panic selling unless investors stop breaking even. This would only happen if higher inflation led to higher interest rates. The truly gigantic pool of labour that is available in China, eastern europe, developing countries etc, will prevent high inflation.

I think we're screwed either way.

Either we borrow huge sums now and are shafted for 25 yrs, or we wait and wait and wait.

It is not a lot of fun.

[Casual Observer]

December was good to buy as no one was buying. You may still get the odd 'deperato' bargain (eg - a vendor whos commited to new one but just lost thier own buyer).

So, the falls of the last few months are being reversed, thats why it isnt a bad time to buy.

Also you need to forget past economic expeirience because the majority of people are now taking interest only loans so affordability is some 30% higher than under a capital repayment regime.

Lastly, it seems the great unwashed are no longer interested in saving via stock - market / pensions. Imagine a fund manager returns 10% capital growth in a year. Not bad, until u consider the 5% bid - offer spread and 1 - 2% fund management charges. You end up with 4% which is taxed, and the stock market is percieved as hugely volatile and speculative. Most folk dont understand it. See, many folk will just prefer property. They can see it, touch it maybe even use it for kids on day and hopefully along the way get some capital growth.

Welcome to the new market era.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, you're so convincing that now I REALLY can't understand why you're trying to sell your flat. Keep it and fund your new venture separately (I'm sure you can borrow against it, based on your argument of a new market era)

[jpjh]

So, the falls of the last few months are being reversed, thats why it isnt a bad time to buy.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I must have been out of the universe for a while. Exactly where is this reversal showing up???

Or is this just more gut feeling.

[CrashIsUnderWay]

Is it just me, or is anyone else getting sick of dogbollox's "Should have bought in December" crap?

Whatever the h*ll universe he occupies, it certainly isnt this one.

To any 'Newbie' posters who appear to start off bearish, then end their posts 'But now I'm not so sure, and in fact i think I'll buy" heres some free advice.

Go for it. Will take you at least 3 months to complete, and in that time you'll have already lost another 8%. You can always pull out at the last moment. Suckers.

[London-loser]

Also you need to forget past economic expeirience because the majority of people are now taking interest only loans so affordability is some 30% higher than under a capital repayment regime.

[Casual Observer]

Is it just me, or is anyone else getting sick of dogbollox's "Should have bought in December" crap?

Whatever the h*ll universe he occupies, it certainly isnt this one.

To any 'Newbie' posters who appear to start off bearish, then end their posts 'But now I'm not so sure, and in fact i think I'll buy" heres some free advice.

Go for it. Will take you at least 3 months to complete, and in that time you'll have already lost another 8%. You can always pull out at the last moment. Suckers.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And don't forget ----- Dogbox is selling his flat at the moment!

[zzg113]

I have to point out the irrationality of taking ONE house going UNDER OFFER (not SOLD) and immediately using this as evidence to extrapolate out to the WHOLE (UK) property market.

With low inflation it is likely to take a very long time indeed

Uh, nick, a low inflation environment will HASTEN the crash, as people begin to realise that inflation will no longer pay the huge mortgages they have taken out and the true burden of the debt they have taken on becomes apparent.

There will be no panic selling unless investors stop breaking even

So what? There will always be forced sales (the 4 D's-death, divorce, debt, disease) and it is the marginal seller who sets the new market price.

Either we borrow huge sums now and are shafted for 25 yrs, or we wait and wait and wait.

Or move somewhere where property is cheaper?

[DonnieDarker]

"Go for it. Will take you at least 3 months to complete, and in that time you'll have already lost another 8%. You can always pull out at the last moment. Suckers."

Or a different take.

Drive a hard bargain and if in the 3 months the market does indeed go backwards then pull out if you're really sceptical. You've lost nothing that way except maybe £500 in solicitors and surveyors' fees.

[Guest pioneer31]

I have to point out the irrationality of taking ONE house going UNDER OFFER (not SOLD) and immediately using this as evidence to extrapolate out to the WHOLE (UK) property market.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

correct. A lot of these post are ridiculous. People saying 'I told you there wouldn't be a crash'. Jumping the gun a bit aren't we?

Spring ain't even here yet.

[Marina]

The thing is I have, for the past couple of years, felt that prices are unsustainable & that all the logic I apply to the situation says that prices must crash. I also find that many people here share that view.

The problem is, especially with a board of generally like minded posters, is that sometimes you need to stand back, make an independant observation of the things you see around you, rather that what you want to see & hear, & take stock.

At the moment I am undecided as to what actually is happening as sentiment is a real driver as the past 10 years have shown. Eventually economic reality must win - or will it? I am genuinly not trying to be provocative - just that I am starting to have doubts

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It is difficult to get a balanced view - especially when you do see property still selling. Property will always sell - or at least appear to. I can only tell you what is happening in my end of East Berkshire (between Slough and Maidenhead).

Anything in the plus 300k usually takes a long time to sell. I watch the market continuously and I could show you properties here that have been on the market for over a year.

I could also show you properties in the 400k plus range that have reduced in asking price by up to 75k over the last year - and still not sold.

There are thousands of properties on the market - especially since Christmas. Lots of new For Sale signs.

Up to half the properties in any one week in my local property paper say 'No onward chain'. Once this used to mean an executor's sale - now it means a BTL landlord getting out.

Some of the blocks of flats near me have dozens (quite literally) of For Sale and To Let boards outside them.

In the last 3 months of 2004, half as many properties were sold (Land Registry figures) in Norwich as in the last 3 months of 2003. No EA bull here - just simple Land Registry facts.

One of the new blocks of flats near me has now been finished just over a year - it is still half empty and prices have reduced from 250k to 195k.

Another new block of flats near me (finished 3 months ago) still only has 2 cars in the car park each day and they belong to the EAs selling the flats.

Mortgage approvals are at a 10 year low.

Estate Agents near me are always empty, even on Saturdays, and admit, when pressed, that the market is dead.

Sellers are now accepting offers from Buyers who are not in a position to proceed in desperation i.e. to kid themselves they have sold.

There are, round here, (I have this from several EAs in the area) 'no first time buyers in the market'.

There are masses of properties to rent on the rental market - with the result that actual rents have dropped a couple of hundred pounds a month. The BTL figures do not add up round here and many (presumably) recent BTLs are trying to sell.

[fdk]

Is the general public / media sentiment turning again, so soon after things were looking like they were lining up for a HPC?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I went for a nose around a new development in Bromley on Saturday to find out what was on offer, and more importantly to find out what has sold and for how much, just to get a feel for how bad things really were. I had absolutely no intention of buying anything.

It seems out the 21 brand new, 2-bed 2-bath flats, duplexes and loft style flats built, 16 have already been sold since June last year and the remainder are expected to sold by end of April. Most would have sold off plan as they are still fitting out some of them at the moment.

I viewed one of the unsold duplexes, asking price £285,000 for about 900 sq feet and came face to face with the madness that is HPI in the UK. Tiny, poky bedrooms below ground level ( ), average sized living space on the upper floor, and to be honest not much else.

The 'loft style' flats were going for £345K (1,000 sq feet) !!!

The marketing brochure was very glossy and was basically selling a lifestyle, rather than a place to live. At the same time I was viewing, a girl of about 30 turned up to look at the flat she had already reserved, one of the cheaper ones.

I asked the salesman about part exchange and was told that there was no incentive on the developer's part to offer this as the flats were selling so well by themselves. He also mentioned that they would not accept offers from people who were in an incomplete chain and still trying to find a buyer, and also menioned that all the other sold properties were taken by first time buyers.

How much of his sales talk was fact and how much was fiction, I couldn't be sure. He seemed rather indifferent to me to be honest, wasn't really making much effort to convince me to buy. He did perk up when I mentioned that I had no mortgage on my existing place though.

But I was genuinely shocked when he said now many has already sold. If he was lying, why go so OTT, why not just say half sold or something. Maybe the general public just aren't as aware of the potential for future HP falls as we'd like to think.

[right_freds_dead]

Not sold yet but its only been on just over a week. There are viewings booked in for this week. Im asking what I think is a very high cheeky price. I only paid £88000 10 months ago and am now asking £104000. Probably wont get that.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i think you might receive an even cheekier offer back of about £60k

not a scrap of a chance at £104k. not here. not now.

any minute now you are going to look crazy for ever buying it for £88

they've had you dogbox. what have you done ?

that 88k flat is was probably £44k in 2001.

same as it wil be in 2006