[andrew_uk]

Hi All,
It's time to start thinking about the next press release. Input and constructive critism is appreciated, negativity not so much. The last press release was the 18th of Jan 2005 so the Febuary release will aim for around the 18th of Feb.

Below is a list of possible subjects feedback on these and as important the tone would be appreciated. At present the tone is serious but it has been suggested a more radical/humourous style would create more impact. Also they should be shorter, punchier and more collectively created.

The remainder of the week until the 12th will be taken for peoples views. After this a draft release will be prepared over the weekend and posted to invite comments ready for it's release. It will mention that HPC expects a 30% drop in prices.


- POSSIBLE THEMES -

Land registry figures:
Follow up to the previous press release mentioning that sales are not bouncing. Sales last quarter down massively (100k-150k down 22%, upto 100K down around 40% on average vrs last year)

Back peddler of the year:
Another poster who would prefer his name was not mentioned posted a humourous article about the back peddler of the year. I've included it below as I personally thought it worked very well.

The BTL craze:
The fact that BTL is now seen as the way to easy riches by many. A famous share analyst stated that he got out of shares before the dot com boom after his taxi driver gave him a share tip. Recently my sister (not financially savy - I had to help her remortgage) stated she would like to buy another property and rent out hers.

Hanging over the precepice:
Concentrate on the fact no ones dropping prices in case others don't do the same whilst BTLers/FTBers won't pay the prices. Annecdotal evidence that people won't drop till they see others doing the same.

Consumer Confidence dropping:
Mention recent Job losses, falling retail sales and the feeling that perhaps it's time to reduce debt not splash out. So forget that new house for a while. Personally seeing a lot of this locally.


ARTICLE ABOUT "Back Peddler of the year" - As Suggested by a poster last month
John Wrigglesworth, of property website Hometrack, is the winner of the inaugural Housepricecrash.co.uk 'back pedaller of the year' contest.

The modest Mr Wrigglesworth - who grudgingly describes himself as being 'universally acknowledged as the UK's leading housing market expert' - won the award amid some steep competition from other industry commentators.

Mr Wrigglesworth won the award after, in (Month/Year), proclaiming: 'There's more chance of finding Elvis on the moon than there is of a house price crash. This was followed just months later by: "This month’s house price fall confirms, beyond doubt, that the housing boom is well and truly over...With the excess supply of unsold properties increasing, further house price falls are inevitable."

Unlucky to lose out in second place was Martin Ellis, of the Halifax. In April 2004 he insisted: "We don't see anything that would cause prices to fall. It would take a very sharp rise in interest rates, a turnaround in the economy or a big rise in unemployment to cause that and we don't see that as a realistic scenario." However, by September, in a road-to-Damscus-style conversion, was commenting: "This looks like the start of a genuine downturn...We are not really surprised. It was only a matter of when it would come, rather than if."

Other close contenders included:

(list them here).

A spokesman for HPC said: "As people locked out of the housing market by today's obscene prices, Mr Wrigglesworth has long been our favourite commentator.

"We all have dark moments when we question our belief in the inevitability of a house-price crash, but we can always turn to Mr Wrigglesworth for hope. If he represents the best the vested interest groups can produce as a cheerleader for the house-price boom, we feel the crash is written in stone."

Mr Wrigglesworth has yet to formally accept his award. Friends say he has not been seen since scientists examining pictures from the Huygens probe's journey to Saturn's moon Titan released grainy images appearing to show a heavy-set man in a white suit plugging in a guitar.

Cheers,
Andrew

[VacantPossession]

HI Andrew,

I certainly think a more radical approach would do no harm. Though I see the reason behind issuing press releases which talk in the same language as the conventional property pundits, I think something harder hitting might produce results.

For instance, driving home the fact that profit for one person selling at an advantagous price to him is always in effect a loss and liability which is paid for by the first time buyer.

Continuing this theme, a note stating the obvious but little heeded fact that ever spiralling house prices will in the end be bad news for everyone, despite the illusion that up until a critical point is reach, it appears that everyone is winning. ie. the market cannot inflate for ever.

Thirdly, humour is a difficult approach to succeed with, and can backfire.

Finally I think it would be a worthwhile thing to actually casitgate the press for being willing to print any old rubbish which vested interests give them, most importantly that it continues to print statistics about prices which are based not on final selling figures.

I wish you luck and take this opportunity to thank you so much for all you do.

VacantPossession

[WSG]

point out latest Oct-Dec land reg figures are from a neutral authority whereas Natwide/Halifax figs et al are published by organisations with a vested interest.

[Killer Bunny]

andrew_uk, on Feb 8 2005, 01:05 AM, said:

Land registry figures:
massively
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not a word journos want to see

andrew_uk, on Feb 8 2005, 01:05 AM, said:

Back peddler of the year:
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No libelous statements

andrew_uk, on Feb 8 2005, 01:05 AM, said:

The BTL craze:
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Stick to the facts - the journo will have to get this approved by their editor

andrew_uk, on Feb 8 2005, 01:05 AM, said:

Hanging over the precepice:
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Put as 'What can you do in a falling market'?

A journo wants facts perhaps followed by opinion. They will write the piece not the sender of the release. And any opinion must be allied to a fact - such as, in the last crash...
HTH

[europbaron]

andrew_uk, on Feb 8 2005, 02:05 AM, said:

It will mention that HPC expects a 30% drop in prices.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

over what time period?

andrew_uk, on Feb 8 2005, 02:05 AM, said:

Land registry figures:
Follow up to the previous press release mentioning that sales are not bouncing. Sales last quarter down massively (100k-150k down 22%, upto 100K down around 40% on average vrs last year)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'd re-word the "bouncing" as it may be taken to infer that we are saying the Spring bounce hasn't occured. The LR data doesn't represent the Spring bounce period. It may be worth associating the drop in <100K buyers (probably FTB and BTL) starting to have a knock on effect further up the chain 100k-150k.

andrew_uk, on Feb 8 2005, 02:05 AM, said:

Back peddler of the year:
Another poster who would prefer his name was not mentioned posted a humourous article about the back peddler of the year. I've included it below as I personally thought it worked very well.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think this would work well if put in a serious manner. Something along the lines of:

Sentiment is clearly turning in the market. Here's what people were saying in June 04
Quotes from June 04
Optimism was still prevalent in Sept 04
Quotes from Sep 04
And here are the "experts" most recent opinions
Recent Quotes

The quotes themselves will make a mockery of Wrigglesworth & Co. I don't think there is any need to take the mickey further by presenting an award.


I don't see any benefit from mentioning the BTL craze or the hanging over the precipice. In the case of the latter I definitely wouldn't say "no-ones dropping prices" - it's almost admitting there are no signs of a price crash. I think more benefit would come from reflecting that the drops in volumes of sales, mortgage approvals and slight price drops (quoting LR and building society figures) are strong indicators that market sentiment has changed, with it now becoming a buyers' market. I would also suggest counteracting the bounce headlines we are sure to get, by arguing that volumes can be expected to rise in Q1, but the true test of the health of the market is whether the rise in volumes compensates for the lack of sales over Q3/Q4. A 20% increase in sales over Q4 could be seen (and reported) as signs of a recovering market and would make great headlines for the bulls. However, it would still be a drop of 11% over Q3 2004. If there is not a significant increase in transactions then the market is truly in trouble.

[andrew_uk]

Thanks for the feedback.
I believe Countrywide (the largest estate agent) will be posting there financial figures this week. They might also be referenced.
The big problem is that we do not generate figures that could be referenced so it becomes a case of interpreting other released figures and adding a different view point on them.

Andrew

[Bubble Pricker]

One theme I had in mind for the next press release was that the Halifax/Natiionwide figures are misleading, because they actually fell in both December and January and yet both lenders reported these falls as a "rise" after seasonal adjustment.


I also would propose to try a professional distribution service this time. They charge around £200. If we can raise this amount, we should give it a try. I hereby pledge £10.

[jpjh]

andrew_uk, on Feb 8 2005, 10:01 PM, said:

Thanks for the feedback.
I believe Countrywide (the largest estate agent) will be posting there financial figures this week. They might also be referenced.
The big problem is that we do not generate figures that could be referenced so it becomes a case of interpreting other released figures and adding a different view point on them.

Andrew
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

We have done a couple of analysis on the Seasonal Adjustments which may be worth referring to as a guide to where the seasonal adjustments should be in the future. Or even pointing out the movement of these figures each month.

[europbaron]

jpjh, on Feb 9 2005, 12:25 AM, said:

We have done a couple of analysis on the Seasonal Adjustments which may be worth referring to as a guide to where the seasonal adjustments should be in the future. Or even pointing out the movement of these figures each month.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yep, the price drops that have been seasonally adjusted are minimal and the adjustments reasonably consistent with past years' figures, although there may be small signs of massaging figures. The big statistic at the moment is the lack of sales.

When people are forced to sell is when price drops will hit, if they do. Then we will see if seasonal adjustment is being applied fairly.

[beerhunter]

I think the key issue is

- volume of sales.. and a copy of the graph that appeared a month or two ago showing volume of sales... showing how the volume dropped last time.. and how they have this time... lets try and get a graph in (pictures, thousand words etc)

A comment about the others

- Back peddler of the year is fun.. but don't think will capture the public imagination tho.

- The BTL craze.. I wouldn't mention it directly.. anyone with sense is out now.. I'd perhaps use the dot.com as a example... probably tied in with bandwagon, jumping on etc

- Hanging over the precepice. Not much "sensationism" in a stand off... for buyers or sellers.

- Consumer Confidence dropping - this would be my second choice in topic.. add in debt stats, et al.

As another topic, perhaps for a future issue;

I've wondered if we could do a diary of an FTB.. certainly would connect with other FTB'ers... looking in windows, wondering which multiple you can afford, whether to buy when prices fall, the feeling of needing to buy because of maybe being priced out etc

My vote this month is for

Main topic:
volume of sales.. with a copy of the graph that appeared a month or two ago. Compare with last time.. to be honest IMHO its that graph that matters.. words are secondary

Secondary:
Consumer Confidence dropping, increasing debts, for those that MEW'ed falling house prices. If someone could come up with a good technical reasoning (in simple language) of why interest rates haven't peaked (my gut feeling is they haven't.. but can't explain it).. that would be a killer.

[I Told You So]

Big emphasis on land reg Q4 sales volumes and price falls, but also point out figures relate to completions that were probably agreed in Q3 therefore the figures for Q1 2005 are likely to be even worse.

Point out that if everythings so rsoy out there why are estate agents laying off staff - I know for a fact that Foxtons and Hamptons have beeen laying people off.

BoE mortgage approvals obviously show there huge falls but point out the Dec figure of 83K was low but it was seasonally adjusted and was actually 63K or 65K(cant rememeber)

Supply and demand etc etc no spring bounce even more supply.

[Bruno Powroznik]

How about we all make a small contribution to put in a full-page advert in a quality newspaper to highlight the issue concerning high house prices?

[ianupton]

Bruno Powroznik, on Feb 10 2005, 10:16 AM, said:

How about we all make a small contribution to put in a full-page advert in a quality newspaper to highlight the issue concerning high house prices?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

this is a good idea. im sure theres more than enough deigners here to make decent ad copy. and you could plug the website. dont know how many users are here but id drop £10 too.

just get a local newspaper cutting of an average house (showing price) aligned next to a newspaper cutting of an average job (showing pay)

headline could read.

[IMAGE] = [IMAGE]
New Labour New Danger
www.hpc.co.uk


id take 1/2 page tabliods and use loads of whitespace. also i think if you dont attack the party in power impact will be less. also you may inspire the tories joining in house bashing as its an election year.