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I know the site says these reductions are for the last 7 days but the numbers do seem to be behaving like a cumulative figure.
Of course the market could be in freefall...
The Haart Price Reductions Thread
Monitoring falls in real time
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#32
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Posted 28 January 2005 - 11:14 PM
Margret Thatcher, on Jan 28 2005, 05:28 PM, said:
I know the site says these reductions are for the last 7 days but the numbers do seem to be behaving like a cumulative figure.
Of course the market could be in freefall...
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Of course the market could be in freefall...
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
No, the numbers appear to be correct. There was a dip in the number last week. Ergo not cumulative.
#33
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Posted 29 January 2005 - 05:39 PM
Slow day - 1063
Give it a few weeks and we'll have a nice little graph to plot
Give it a few weeks and we'll have a nice little graph to plot
#34
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Posted 29 January 2005 - 07:38 PM
1070
Anyone good at mathematics to chart this or is it too soon? Seems like a spike graph to me.
Anyone good at mathematics to chart this or is it too soon? Seems like a spike graph to me.
CRIMBOCASTS for y/e 2013
1. The Euro will have another bad year and may hit parity with the US$ before the end of the year.
2. The Pound will not move much against the dollar (range 1.47-1.60) but is likely to regain a lot of ground verses the Euro which may not survive. US $ will be a safe bet, especially ST bonds and large caps.
3. Stocks should finish moderately higher than 2012 barring a war with Korea and Iran.
4. Gold will not be flying to the moon (again) and will bitterly disappoint (again) any who got in during the run up in 2011.
5. House prices: Flattish to up single digits overall..
6. Not much in the way of inflation again this year--those who forecast hyperinflation will be proven wrong (again--as in 2011 and 2012)
7. Could see a snap GE after the May elections which will be the worst result EVER for Dave. UKIP continue to make headway and will be number 3 before year end.
1. The Euro will have another bad year and may hit parity with the US$ before the end of the year.
2. The Pound will not move much against the dollar (range 1.47-1.60) but is likely to regain a lot of ground verses the Euro which may not survive. US $ will be a safe bet, especially ST bonds and large caps.
3. Stocks should finish moderately higher than 2012 barring a war with Korea and Iran.
4. Gold will not be flying to the moon (again) and will bitterly disappoint (again) any who got in during the run up in 2011.
5. House prices: Flattish to up single digits overall..
6. Not much in the way of inflation again this year--those who forecast hyperinflation will be proven wrong (again--as in 2011 and 2012)
7. Could see a snap GE after the May elections which will be the worst result EVER for Dave. UKIP continue to make headway and will be number 3 before year end.
#35
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Posted 29 January 2005 - 10:32 PM
Realistbear, on Jan 29 2005, 08:38 PM, said:
1070
Anyone good at mathematics to chart this or is it too soon? Seems like a spike graph to me.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Anyone good at mathematics to chart this or is it too soon? Seems like a spike graph to me.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Will a degree in physics do?
Looking pretty linear so far having done a quick plot, but we need a lot more data I think. Give it another week at least
#36
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Posted 29 January 2005 - 11:22 PM
Yandros, on Jan 29 2005, 11:32 PM, said:
Will a degree in physics do?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Darn thought I had a monopoly on that degree.
We're almost as rare as reasonably priced properties.
John
Think of a number between 1 and 10. Add 16. Divide by 2. Square it. Add a zero to the end. Take off the first digit. Add an arbitrary amount. Lo and behold you have next months seasonal adjustment figure for the halifax.
Take that number and fudge it a little bit. Now you have the nationwide seasonal adjustment.
Think of a number between 1 and 10. Add 16. Divide by 2. Square it. Add a zero to the end. Take off the first digit. Add an arbitrary amount. Lo and behold you have next months seasonal adjustment figure for the halifax.
Take that number and fudge it a little bit. Now you have the nationwide seasonal adjustment.
#37
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Posted 30 January 2005 - 02:18 AM
1064
Does this mean 6 sold? Or have they twigged HPC.co.uk and are now manipulating the numbers cover up the alarming rise is listings for sale?
Anyone buying into this market really deserves to lose money.
Does this mean 6 sold? Or have they twigged HPC.co.uk and are now manipulating the numbers cover up the alarming rise is listings for sale?
Anyone buying into this market really deserves to lose money.
CRIMBOCASTS for y/e 2013
1. The Euro will have another bad year and may hit parity with the US$ before the end of the year.
2. The Pound will not move much against the dollar (range 1.47-1.60) but is likely to regain a lot of ground verses the Euro which may not survive. US $ will be a safe bet, especially ST bonds and large caps.
3. Stocks should finish moderately higher than 2012 barring a war with Korea and Iran.
4. Gold will not be flying to the moon (again) and will bitterly disappoint (again) any who got in during the run up in 2011.
5. House prices: Flattish to up single digits overall..
6. Not much in the way of inflation again this year--those who forecast hyperinflation will be proven wrong (again--as in 2011 and 2012)
7. Could see a snap GE after the May elections which will be the worst result EVER for Dave. UKIP continue to make headway and will be number 3 before year end.
1. The Euro will have another bad year and may hit parity with the US$ before the end of the year.
2. The Pound will not move much against the dollar (range 1.47-1.60) but is likely to regain a lot of ground verses the Euro which may not survive. US $ will be a safe bet, especially ST bonds and large caps.
3. Stocks should finish moderately higher than 2012 barring a war with Korea and Iran.
4. Gold will not be flying to the moon (again) and will bitterly disappoint (again) any who got in during the run up in 2011.
5. House prices: Flattish to up single digits overall..
6. Not much in the way of inflation again this year--those who forecast hyperinflation will be proven wrong (again--as in 2011 and 2012)
7. Could see a snap GE after the May elections which will be the worst result EVER for Dave. UKIP continue to make headway and will be number 3 before year end.
#38
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Posted 30 January 2005 - 02:44 AM
Realistbear, on Jan 30 2005, 02:18 AM, said:
1064
Does this mean 6 sold? Or have they twigged HPC.co.uk and are now manipulating the numbers cover up the alarming rise is listings for sale?
Anyone buying into this market really deserves to lose money.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Does this mean 6 sold? Or have they twigged HPC.co.uk and are now manipulating the numbers cover up the alarming rise is listings for sale?
Anyone buying into this market really deserves to lose money.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
"Does this mean 6 sold?"
No, remember it's only those properties who's asking price was reduced in the last 7 days. Obviously, 6 of the 1070 are more than 7 days old now. Sure it'll be back up soon.
#39 Guest_consa_*
Posted 30 January 2005 - 08:36 AM
Mr Tickle, on Jan 26 2005, 11:07 AM, said:
Think Consa has been monitoring these figs, interesting indeed, If I remember correctly they were in the 400's at the beginning of Jan!
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Thanks Mr Tickle
Sorry i was in spain for a few days so probably missed quite a lot on here
Beginning of jan was 416 reductions up to 813 on the 26th jan
There was a thread discussing them somewhere and concluded that they would increase in number, but only to a level at which they will probably stabilise due to number of properties on their books, people reducing maybe 2 times in 1 week etc.
so its quite difficult to accurately monitor the true picture from this info.
all I can conclude from it is that there is a lot of reductions and that is a good indication of the HPC at early stages, which is good enough for me.
#40
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Posted 30 January 2005 - 09:27 AM
I was looking at the ratio of reductions to instructions
Hence currently there are 9865 properties on the books and 1064 reductions which gives a ratio of 9.3%
At the start of this thread the ratio was 10.76%, ie: there are proportionally less reductions on the books.
Presumably the number of reductions will go down proportionally as new instructions reflect more sensible pricing (ie: factoring in a 5-10% reduction in asking prices)
On the other hand, if these new instructions also don't sell, maybe in 6 months there will be additional reductions.
I'm not sure that its easy to make conclusions from these figures without access to more measurements than are available from the Haart website. Perhaps all that we can say is that it continues to provide succour and honey for the bears.
My friends who thought I was mad a year ago are now beginning to think I did the right thing by my STR.
Hence currently there are 9865 properties on the books and 1064 reductions which gives a ratio of 9.3%
At the start of this thread the ratio was 10.76%, ie: there are proportionally less reductions on the books.
Presumably the number of reductions will go down proportionally as new instructions reflect more sensible pricing (ie: factoring in a 5-10% reduction in asking prices)
On the other hand, if these new instructions also don't sell, maybe in 6 months there will be additional reductions.
I'm not sure that its easy to make conclusions from these figures without access to more measurements than are available from the Haart website. Perhaps all that we can say is that it continues to provide succour and honey for the bears.
My friends who thought I was mad a year ago are now beginning to think I did the right thing by my STR.
#41
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Posted 31 January 2005 - 01:32 PM
Check the top post for updates.
Observationally, it seems to me that prices have still drifted downwards in January, but that properties have begun selling again. The traditional rush of new year buyers is probably more like a trickle this right now, but it is enough to throw the starving EAs a lifeline for another month or two. But prices are still being cut, there's no doubt about it. The EAs realise that they need to cut prices to get the market moving, and slowly but surely some vendors that have steadfastly held asking prices at last summer's levels are beginning to crumble. If it's overpriced, it just won't sell, but if it's a good property at an attractive price, there are still buyers out there. Something for both bulls and bears.
Observationally, it seems to me that prices have still drifted downwards in January, but that properties have begun selling again. The traditional rush of new year buyers is probably more like a trickle this right now, but it is enough to throw the starving EAs a lifeline for another month or two. But prices are still being cut, there's no doubt about it. The EAs realise that they need to cut prices to get the market moving, and slowly but surely some vendors that have steadfastly held asking prices at last summer's levels are beginning to crumble. If it's overpriced, it just won't sell, but if it's a good property at an attractive price, there are still buyers out there. Something for both bulls and bears.
"When you combine ignorance and borrowed money, the consequences can get interesting." - Warren Buffett
"If you let inflation expectations drift too far away from the target, you can end up in quite serious difficulty with a costly process to bring them back again." - Mervyn King, 2005
"If you let inflation expectations drift too far away from the target, you can end up in quite serious difficulty with a costly process to bring them back again." - Mervyn King, 2005
#42
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Posted 31 January 2005 - 05:57 PM
1089 out of 9866
Going up again after a quiet Sunday
Going up again after a quiet Sunday
#43
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Posted 31 January 2005 - 09:57 PM
Back of an envelope calculations:
--------------------------------------
10% of properties on Haarts' books are having price cuts advertised each week.
Taken from a random sample of 30 reduced properties, the average price reduction is approximately 3.9%.
So, at this constant rate of price cutting:
Every 10 weeks, asking prices across all properties will have fallen by 3.9%.
Extrapolate that over a year, and we will get an approximate fall of 20% in 2005.
----------------
Must stress: at current rate of price cutting.
Maybe my HPC Procrasinator estimate of -25% in 2005 won't be so far off the mark after all!
--------------------------------------
10% of properties on Haarts' books are having price cuts advertised each week.
Taken from a random sample of 30 reduced properties, the average price reduction is approximately 3.9%.
So, at this constant rate of price cutting:
Every 10 weeks, asking prices across all properties will have fallen by 3.9%.
Extrapolate that over a year, and we will get an approximate fall of 20% in 2005.
----------------
Must stress: at current rate of price cutting.
Maybe my HPC Procrasinator estimate of -25% in 2005 won't be so far off the mark after all!
"When you combine ignorance and borrowed money, the consequences can get interesting." - Warren Buffett
"If you let inflation expectations drift too far away from the target, you can end up in quite serious difficulty with a costly process to bring them back again." - Mervyn King, 2005
"If you let inflation expectations drift too far away from the target, you can end up in quite serious difficulty with a costly process to bring them back again." - Mervyn King, 2005
#44
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Posted 31 January 2005 - 10:02 PM
1099,
Funny how the "news" today was that there are more buyers around this week--I wonder if they mean't sellers and just made a mistake?
Funny how the "news" today was that there are more buyers around this week--I wonder if they mean't sellers and just made a mistake?
CRIMBOCASTS for y/e 2013
1. The Euro will have another bad year and may hit parity with the US$ before the end of the year.
2. The Pound will not move much against the dollar (range 1.47-1.60) but is likely to regain a lot of ground verses the Euro which may not survive. US $ will be a safe bet, especially ST bonds and large caps.
3. Stocks should finish moderately higher than 2012 barring a war with Korea and Iran.
4. Gold will not be flying to the moon (again) and will bitterly disappoint (again) any who got in during the run up in 2011.
5. House prices: Flattish to up single digits overall..
6. Not much in the way of inflation again this year--those who forecast hyperinflation will be proven wrong (again--as in 2011 and 2012)
7. Could see a snap GE after the May elections which will be the worst result EVER for Dave. UKIP continue to make headway and will be number 3 before year end.
1. The Euro will have another bad year and may hit parity with the US$ before the end of the year.
2. The Pound will not move much against the dollar (range 1.47-1.60) but is likely to regain a lot of ground verses the Euro which may not survive. US $ will be a safe bet, especially ST bonds and large caps.
3. Stocks should finish moderately higher than 2012 barring a war with Korea and Iran.
4. Gold will not be flying to the moon (again) and will bitterly disappoint (again) any who got in during the run up in 2011.
5. House prices: Flattish to up single digits overall..
6. Not much in the way of inflation again this year--those who forecast hyperinflation will be proven wrong (again--as in 2011 and 2012)
7. Could see a snap GE after the May elections which will be the worst result EVER for Dave. UKIP continue to make headway and will be number 3 before year end.
#45
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Posted 01 February 2005 - 01:45 PM
Now broken 1100.
Come on TTRTR KOTC and other bulls, how do you explain this thread?
Maybe its a bug in Haart's web site ?
Come on TTRTR KOTC and other bulls, how do you explain this thread?
Maybe its a bug in Haart's web site ?