Had the carpet cleaners in today in the final preperations for STR. final DIY this weekend and then estate agents in next week to get it on the Market before HIPS. All going well and based on my joining semi that was put on at £180k in Oct 06 and sold within a month and was completed in Jan 07 for £176k I will have £100k+ equity to invest after I pay all the selling fees from the equity.

I had various amounts around £1k to £9k in premium bonds in the last 18 months for a wedding fund and we won at least £700 off them (auto reinvested each time) which I thought was quite good, now i'm down to £10 im getting zilch the last few months (wedding was 1/3/07).

So I was thinking of putting £30k of my equity into premium bonds as when I check every month I would say 75% of the big prizes £5k to £1m are won by holders with £10k to £30k holdings.

I know on the NS&I website it says each bond has a 24000 to 1 chance of winning a prize so I tried to work that out in excel. My understanding is that every £1 bond is drawn for every prize. But if it wins on more than one prize it is allocated to the highest only? So it a £1 bond is drawn and wins £50, £500 and £10k you will get the £10k prize only.

So I looked at the total estimated amount of prize draws listed for Julys draw, 1,474,310 (1.47 million approx). So assuming you had a £30000 holding you would have 30000 x 1474310 chances of winning a prize? This is 44,229,300,000 chances? Am I correct that this is 44 billion, 229 million, 300 thousand chances?

So, If you divide that 44 billion + by the Goverment 24000 to 1 odds, you have 1,842,887 (1.84 million) realistic chances of winning at least £50 each month?

This seems a good punt to me. I should think that you are virtually gaurenteed £50 a month winnings on £30k holding which is only 2% p/a nett i know but it must be worth it for the gamble as only a few medium wins will get you near the best taxable savings of about 4.7% net p/a (on basix rate tax)

Can someone please explain if my figures are roughly right as I am guessing about the odds. If I am wrong can they give the real odds on a £30k holding? Also, are there any £30k PB holders here who can confirm you have a high chance of winning at £50+ prize every month?

Thanks

Mark

**Edited by markyh, 03 May 2007 - 11:58 AM.**