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Premium Bond Odds On A 30k Holding?


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#46 Layman

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Posted 03 May 2007 - 09:11 PM

The last time I checked, the odds of winning any prize was around 26,000:1 ... so having more than 26,000 bonds gives you the 1:1 odds of getting a cheque or bond cert through the post each month.

I've got roughly 29k's worth... I see it as a relatively good tax-free return with the (admittedly small!) chance of winning big-time.

I generally win 50 each month ... this month I won 1 x 100 and 2 x 50 - my best month so far.

I wouldn't recommend putting 100% of your savings in it ...but I've got a good coverage of cash ISAs, stocks and shares ISAs, US stocks, savings accounts - and the PBs just make life a bit more interesting.

When you haven't got a house to waste your time doing DIY on, you need *something* to while away the hours. :P

#47 evictee

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Posted 03 May 2007 - 11:53 PM

What are the chances of winning sweet f**k all with 7,000 of Premium Bonds over the last 6 months?

17%

#48 salamander

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Posted 04 May 2007 - 01:17 AM

A bit more detail on odds of winning/not winning (if I can remember properly how to do the maths...)

Each bond has a 1 in 24000 chance of winning according to NS&I

A single bond therefore has a 23999 in 24000 chance of NOT winning, a probability of 0.999958333

If you hold 30000 bonds, the probability of NONE of them winning is 30000 of these 0.999958333s multiplied together, which comes to 0.286497336 or 29%

Therefore, in any month, the probability of this NOT being true (i.e. of winning at least one prize) comes out at around 71%.. I think :blink:

Edited by narrowescape, 04 May 2007 - 01:45 AM.

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#49 Guest_X-QUORK_*

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Posted 04 May 2007 - 09:15 AM

I'd like to feel happier for some of the regular winners, but as I've won zip all since investing six months ago I'm finding it hard to feel the love.

I'll be cashing them in shortly, a bad investment for this punter. :(

#50 BuyingBear

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Posted 06 May 2007 - 12:53 AM

Well, so are the premium bonds a waste of time if becoming a millionaire is your objective.

The point of my post was to suggest that there might be cheaper ways of recreating the same risk/reward offered by premium bonds.

Perhaps if I get some time I'll get my calculator out see if I can prove it.

I don't think you could, remember that PB's are re-entered into each draw and you can always draw down your principle, the lottery is all or bust.
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#51 Mart

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Posted 06 May 2007 - 07:56 AM

I bought 6,000 worth in Jan 2006 and not won anything lol, so have effectively lost about 250 in no interest

#52 0q0

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Posted 06 May 2007 - 10:45 AM

I bought 6,000 worth in Jan 2006 and not won anything lol, so have effectively lost about 250 in no interest


Sorry to read that. I empathise, had 2 consecutive months with sweet f a when I held bonds for 6 months or so about 5 or 6 years back with the max holding. In the end, it's the old luck thing. If it's in it's in. I know many people who play the lottery, 5 or 6 lines a week, seldom even win the tenner. I know a woman whose family are millionaires, she gets 4 numbers fairly regularly (like once every 1 or 2 months, something like that) on just one line a week. I only have her word for that but I doubt she's lying.

Edited by The Last Bear, 06 May 2007 - 10:45 AM.


#53 0q0

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Posted 03 July 2007 - 07:52 AM

I had p/ bonds years ago, did not win as much as I could've got in savings interest (I had the max in) and some months no win at all, I recall two consecutive months out of 7 or 8 with no win.

I don't particularly like these, but of course some people do win. My own 'luck' when I had them was as consistent as ever - lousy wins and below average 'luck'. Would I have won big if I'd kept them all this time, well somehow erm I doubt it...

Anyway a relative has bought the max recently and is excited about them despite not winning a bean this month and only 100 last month on the max of 30K in. I'll be charting her progress here if anyone wants to know. So far:-

Month 1 100
Month 2 no win

Watch this space.

#54 Ologhai Jones

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Posted 03 July 2007 - 03:28 PM

Anyway a relative has bought the max recently and is excited about them despite not winning a bean this month and only 100 last month on the max of 30K in. I'll be charting her progress here if anyone wants to know. So far:-

Month 1 100
Month 2 no win

Watch this space.


According to the NS&I website, the chance of an individual bond winning each month is 24,000 to 1. Therefore, on average, with a maximum investment of 30,000 bonds, one would expect five wins every four months. The most common win would be 50.

For the sake of example, if someone won 50 four times and 100 once in those four months, that would equate to:

250 / 30,000 = 8.333% over four months, or 2.5% AER.

The remaining 1.3% (out of the 3.8% interest that NS&I say PBs attract) is necessary to pay all those larger prize winners... :)

#55 0q0

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Posted 03 July 2007 - 05:49 PM

According to the NS&I website, the chance of an individual bond winning each month is 24,000 to 1. Therefore, on average, with a maximum investment of 30,000 bonds, one would expect five wins every four months. The most common win would be 50.

For the sake of example, if someone won 50 four times and 100 once in those four months, that would equate to:

250 / 30,000 = 8.333% over four months, or 2.5% AER.

The remaining 1.3% (out of the 3.8% interest that NS&I say PBs attract) is necessary to pay all those larger prize winners... :)


Thanks OJ, I think NS say 15 wins over 12 months is the average, but I've heard of plenty of people who suggest they had less than that on the 30K max holding. And, of course, there's the same anecdotal testimonies from the lucky few who do better than the average. I tend to think if your luck's in it's in, if it ain't it ain't, probability and law of averages aside. I'll be posting results here if anyone's interested. I'll also add that my uncle had PBs from donkey's years ago, couple of hundred worth, I think he only won once in 20 or 30 years and it wasn't anything spectacular. However, to those that win or who 'feel lucky' all this is to be disregarded of course!

#56 Ologhai Jones

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Posted 04 July 2007 - 08:19 AM

250 / 30,000 = 8.333% over four months, or 2.5% AER.


Oops! That should've been 0.8333% of course, not 8.333%! The 2.5% AER was correct, though! ;)

#57 buylowsellhigh!

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Posted 12 July 2007 - 01:02 PM

What are the chances of winning sweet f**k all with 7,000 of Premium Bonds over the last 6 months? That's where I am.

I don't think I'll bother investing in them ever again.


Yep, I can concur here. I've got about 9k now saved over a year and a half and it's been a complete waste of time thus far. No winnings whatsoever. BUT! I am the kind of stubborn fool who will stay until I've won at least 1 prize. Meanwhile I do calculations to see what I could have made with the money in a fund/bank account and pull my hair out. Such is the nature of investment, I suppose.

#58 King Of Fools

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Posted 12 July 2007 - 02:32 PM

Yep, I can concur here. I've got about 9k now saved over a year and a half and it's been a complete waste of time thus far. No winnings whatsoever. BUT! I am the kind of stubborn fool who will stay until I've won at least 1 prize. Meanwhile I do calculations to see what I could have made with the money in a fund/bank account and pull my hair out. Such is the nature of investment, I suppose.

At least, unlike investing in houses, you cannot lose any of your original investment! ;)

Edited by King Of Fools, 12 July 2007 - 02:33 PM.

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#59 Guest_Charlie The Tramp_*

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Posted 12 July 2007 - 04:32 PM

Yep, I can concur here. I've got about 9k now saved over a year and a half and it's been a complete waste of time thus far. No winnings whatsoever. BUT! I am the kind of stubborn fool who will stay until I've won at least 1 prize. Meanwhile I do calculations to see what I could have made with the money in a fund/bank account and pull my hair out. Such is the nature of investment, I suppose.


Cash them in add 1K and re-invest in a 10k block. Insist with NSI that you want a 10k block. ;)

#60 dnd

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Posted 12 July 2007 - 07:17 PM

At least, unlike investing in houses, you cannot lose any of your original investment! ;)


with current money supply/inflation it's losing around 10%+ of it's value every year...
'democracy' is an ever reducing set of limited 'freedoms' under, effectively, single central bank control
Money as debt video http://video.google....474362583451279
Arron Russo/Rockefeller interview http://video.google....773139549147763




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