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Mortgage Approvals Are they the best sign yet? Rate Topic: -----

#1 User is offline   munimula 

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Posted 07 January 2005 - 04:05 PM

The following graph is taken from this weeks MoneyWeek, the source is the BofE.

I think this is the best evidence at the moment that we are on the edge of a cliff and about to fall off it. Mortgage approvals have fallen much quicker than they did initially in the last HPC and look at what the house prices did then.

Attached File  graph.gif (118.36K)
Number of downloads: 3435
'The property market's twilight period is coming to an end. The past few months have been like the first two hours on the deck of the RMS Titanic after it struck the iceberg. To start with, no one could believe it was sinking. The ship was still well above water and even as the first lifeboats were lowered into the sea, many passengers were reluctant to leave.' Edmund Conway, Telegraph 03/05/2008

#2 User is offline   Gtr London FTB 

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Posted 07 January 2005 - 04:10 PM

very interesting indeed. I'll be interested to see the next figures to ascertain if this trend will continue or if it is an aberration.

#3 User is offline   Mr Tickle 

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Posted 07 January 2005 - 04:13 PM

I think this is the best data to rely on, its from a non VI source.
It also makes me wonder if the volumes we were talking about yesterday are actually correct, the charts have a similar (ok diving) look to them.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...?showtopic=4263

#4 User is offline   beerhunter 

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Posted 07 January 2005 - 08:35 PM

Look at mortgage approvals!!

Look at the start of the graph, 1986-1989ish

Now look at 2002-2004

Looks scarily very similar to me! :D :D :lol:

#5 User is offline   Jake 

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Post icon  Posted 07 January 2005 - 09:18 PM

Yes, munimula. I believe this is like watching sentiment changing.

This graph will put the skids under any bull theory.

We are about to go over the cliff. At long last!

The rest is just academic.

The bears felt this vibe 6-8 months ago. Now the facts are filtering in.

Another 6 months and the public will be feasting on the headlines...

...like a dog chained to its vomit.

Blair better get a move on with the election...

#6 User is offline   Marina 

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Posted 07 January 2005 - 11:05 PM

This is from the Guardian.

Mortgage lending at lowest for 10 years

Ashley Seager
Wednesday January 5, 2005
The Guardian

Mortgage lending fell to its lowest level in almost a decade in November and is dropping faster than during the housing market crash of the early 90s, official figures showed yesterday, pointing to further house price falls this year.
The Bank of England reported that only 77,000 new mortgages were approved in November, down from 85,000 in October and the lowest since September 1995. That represented a 43% drop from November 2003's figure of 134,000 - worse than any fall seen in the early-90s.

The 77,000 figure was only slightly above the monthly average of 73,000 new loans made during the worst year of the early-90s slump.

"The number of mortgage approvals continues to head south at an alarming rate," said Simon Rubinsohn, an economist at Gerrard Ltd.

"Typically, mortgage approvals have been a fairly reliable lead indicator of house price inflation," he said. "Property prices are likely to continue to soften in the first quarter of the year."

He says soften, but he means FALL. Reading that has made me feel a lot more optimistic.

#7 User is offline   slapkirsty 

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Posted 07 January 2005 - 11:14 PM

The crash is ON.

But most sellers still won't drop. The good times are too fresh in their memories.

Some of them have been sitting there for 6 months already.

Don't drop, then, Sit and Rot.

#8 User is offline   delite1 

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Posted 07 January 2005 - 11:30 PM

If you look carefully at the blue line see how it falls sharply in around 1988/9 and watch the red line follow it around 6-8 months after. I attribute this fall to a loss of confidence and affordibilty due to steeply rising interest rates. There was no way back for some time.
Now Look at the blue line at our present time, this has been described as a worse drop .I can attribute this to the loss of the BTL investor as they have pulled out due to the fact that even the biggest money lender is forecasting the market to decline over the next 12 months. The question remains now will the red line follow and if so how far behind. If it does follow I think it may happen a lot quicker due to the speed at which information is exchanged nowadays.

As an example of inormation exchange look at Halifax's 1.1 increase published today. If this was published in 1988 in a newspaper we would have accepted it without question for weeks and months, instead today we are able to see within minutes of its publication that if Northen Ireland was not included the figure would have been around 4.5% down!

So considering the red line has virtually tracked the blue line will the red line follow again?

#9 User is offline   Pudniw 

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Posted 08 January 2005 - 08:19 AM

IMO, at this stage it's all about volumes because you'll not get any sense out of the monthly HPI stats. As it's been pointed out, the price trend lags slightly behind the volume trend (if I remember right), but look how dramatic its been compared to the last slump!

#10 User is offline   delite1 

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Posted 08 January 2005 - 10:12 AM

Pudniw,

Absolutely agree. Statistics can be manipulated and twisted to say anything. A friend of mine owns a music management company .She personally concentrates on A and R within her own company.The way that they value an act is not by fudged record sales or biased radio play but by the number of tickets an act would sell for a live gig. This they say is the acid test because it actually involves they public and requires them to make an effort and actively spend time and money supporting the act.
Going back to these lendings figures it shows a sure sign of the public voting with their feet.
The public are no longer prepared to support the market or participate in the ridiculous ponzi scheme.

#11 User is offline   Bullish Bear 

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Posted 08 January 2005 - 10:13 AM

munimula, on Jan 7 2005, 04:05 PM, said:

The following graph is taken from this weeks MoneyWeek, the source is the BofE.

I think this is the best evidence at the moment that we are on the edge of a cliff and about to fall off it. Mortgage approvals have fallen much quicker than they did initially in the last HPC and look at what the house prices did then.

Attachment attachment
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Wow! Excellent graph! This really does show house house prices lag approvals and it looks like house prices are going to be heading south soon!!!

I have been a naughty girl and emailed the graph over to a number of estate agents in my area!!

#12 User is offline   quantinghome 

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Posted 08 January 2005 - 10:28 AM

delite1, on Jan 7 2005, 11:30 PM, said:

If you look carefully at the blue line see how it falls sharply in around 1988/9 and watch the red line follow it around 6-8 months after.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


I'm assuming the red line is year-on-year growth. If so, it's not telling us the growth in a particular month. To do that it needs to be backdated around 6 months. (e.g. Halfax says Decemeber's y-o-y is 15% - that doesn't tell us what happened in december, but what was happening in early summer). After doing that you get a direct correspondence with the monthly approvals data.

#13 User is offline   delite1 

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Posted 08 January 2005 - 10:32 AM

Nothing wrong in that BB. Like yourself I'm in and around NW and North London (Finchley and Hendon, Golders Green) and we know the agents are holding their heads in their hands.If you had sent any of these local agents that chart you'd be doing them a favour. You'd simply be giving them the "heads up" and perhaps they could get their careers sorted out.

#14 User is offline   Jake 

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Posted 08 January 2005 - 10:46 AM

This is a top thread. Hats off to munimula for that graph.

I think it should be at the top of the HPC page. The more you gaze at it the more you can see the writing on the wall for the market.

I challenge any Bull to bring up their new paradigm la la land ideology and fend off this sort of ocular proof that the only way is down, down, down.

#15 User is offline   Bullish Bear 

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Posted 08 January 2005 - 11:10 AM

Mortgage Lending - Seasonally Adjusted - Figures from BOE
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Originally posted by 3rdChimpanzee on TMF

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