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A PROPERTY market 'rollercoaster' will see house prices in some areas plummet by £21,000 over the next three years, experts warned yesterday.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/hou...page_id=57&ct=5
The more articles we see like this the greater the falls going to be.
Three Years Of House-price Woe
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#1
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Posted 04 January 2005 - 09:53 AM
To know the road ahead, ask those coming back.
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#2
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Posted 04 January 2005 - 10:13 AM
Dicky, on Jan 4 2005, 09:53 AM, said:
The more articles we see like this the greater the falls going to be.
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Met an old friend on New Year's day. She is a highly qualified academic involved in setting up research fellowships etc. She asked if the housing market had turned. Groan !!!
Can we set up a hit team and whack these buggers with oiled canes.
RIP, RIG AND PANIC.
#3
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Posted 04 January 2005 - 10:44 AM
These predicted falls aren't much, I'm hoping for a lot more.
#4
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Posted 04 January 2005 - 12:42 PM
simon99, on Jan 4 2005, 11:44 AM, said:
These predicted falls aren't much, I'm hoping for a lot more.
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Simon99,
Although I would like to see greater falls, I don't think we will.
Do remember all that inflation is going up so the falls in real terms is not just 6% but nearer 10%. 2 years of that a 160K house will become 150K in the first year and 141K after the second. And your wages should of increased at the same pace of inflation.
So if you earn 25K now, you should be on 26K next year, and 27.04K the year after. Note: with inflation at 4%.
Does anybody follow.
I would be over the moon with a 6% decrease in house prices!
#5
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Posted 04 January 2005 - 12:50 PM
Did this article actually make the paper copy of the Daily Mail, or is it just an on-line article?
#6
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Posted 04 January 2005 - 12:50 PM
Nick,
That is true, as long as it happens.
Bottom line is though that more jobs are shifting to temporary/short term contract/part time, many jobs are simply uncompetitive in a world market and will either be offshored or removed fromt he system and taxes are rising and will continue to rise. The real rate of inflation in necessary goods is far higher than the DVD player and plastic junk distorted CPI and energy prices and service cost rises are rampant.
Even that 4% rise may not be enough to keep parity let alone make headway on the last decade's HPI.
That is true, as long as it happens.
Bottom line is though that more jobs are shifting to temporary/short term contract/part time, many jobs are simply uncompetitive in a world market and will either be offshored or removed fromt he system and taxes are rising and will continue to rise. The real rate of inflation in necessary goods is far higher than the DVD player and plastic junk distorted CPI and energy prices and service cost rises are rampant.
Even that 4% rise may not be enough to keep parity let alone make headway on the last decade's HPI.
"Asians make things and sell them to Americans, who borrow money from their suppliers (on the inflated value of their houses) in order to continue living beyond their means. Asians take their profits and either relend them to Americans...or use them to buy more productive capacity, in America and elsewhere.
For those who wonder where this trend will lead, we offer a guess: The average American will be left with a shoeshine kit and instructions on how to say 'please' and 'thank you' in Chinese...."
Bill Bonner.
Socialists want socialism for everyone else, but capitalism for themselves, while capitalists want capitalism for everyone else, but socialism for themselves.
Link
For those who wonder where this trend will lead, we offer a guess: The average American will be left with a shoeshine kit and instructions on how to say 'please' and 'thank you' in Chinese...."
Bill Bonner.
Socialists want socialism for everyone else, but capitalism for themselves, while capitalists want capitalism for everyone else, but socialism for themselves.
Link
#7
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Posted 04 January 2005 - 12:53 PM
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inflation is going up
At a negligible rate.
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So if you earn 25K now, you should be on 26K next year, and 27.04K the year after. Note: with inflation at 4%.
Yeah, right. How many people on here are seeing 4% wage inflation.
Al Greenspan, who facilitated the birth of world-wide HPI with irrationally exuberant interest rates
mortgage
mortgage
#8
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Posted 04 January 2005 - 01:01 PM
I should be getting a 3% increase in jan. *great*
I have bought a newish (5 years) house in November 2006. I talked the vendor down 30% off peak 2004 price am am paying less than the 2002 price. I feel prices will continue to drop down to the 2001 price but saving for 5 years hopefully means i wont be stung. The price i am paying isn't much above the price the vendor paid for the place when it was new in 2000. However some idiot is trying to flog an identical house on my road for 55k above the price i paid, one month later!?!?! The housing market is frothy, no-one ever knows what the value of a house is, the value is what someone is willing to pay, make sure you pay alot less than the asking price.
Free to collect, like ebay but you dont pay, you just have to collect
QUOTE (sledgehead)If you make a living from something, you are a professional something: it is your profession. You could bake dog turds and flog them as ornaments. If that's how you make your living, you ARE a professional dog-turd baker. Period
QUOTE (Rolling Stone 13th July 2000)The first thing you need to know about Goldman Sachs is that it's everywhere. The world's most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.
QUOTE (Soon Not a Chain Retailer @ Aug 30 2009, 01:03 AM) Society should provide trampolines not safety nets.
QUOTE (GordonBrown Jan 27 2008 (warning about the coming inflation?))if you don't get the skills you wont get a job
if you get the skills you will earn ALOT of money
Free to collect, like ebay but you dont pay, you just have to collect
QUOTE (sledgehead)If you make a living from something, you are a professional something: it is your profession. You could bake dog turds and flog them as ornaments. If that's how you make your living, you ARE a professional dog-turd baker. Period
QUOTE (Rolling Stone 13th July 2000)The first thing you need to know about Goldman Sachs is that it's everywhere. The world's most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.
QUOTE (Soon Not a Chain Retailer @ Aug 30 2009, 01:03 AM) Society should provide trampolines not safety nets.
QUOTE (GordonBrown Jan 27 2008 (warning about the coming inflation?))if you don't get the skills you wont get a job
if you get the skills you will earn ALOT of money
#9
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Posted 04 January 2005 - 01:06 PM
This is actually a VERY BEARISH report. OK, so the falls they predict are a bit lower than most of us HPC bears are predicting/hoping for, but note how long they project it will take for HPs to get back to their peak- 2010 for London, for instance. There will be some nice buying opportunities out there before the market turns bullish again. Patience is the key. 
#10 Guest_Charlie The Tramp_*
Posted 04 January 2005 - 01:29 PM
And a lot more of this to come.
The massive debt will be a key factor in house price falls.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/credit-and-lo...5&in_page_id=62
The massive debt will be a key factor in house price falls.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/credit-and-lo...5&in_page_id=62
#11
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Posted 04 January 2005 - 02:25 PM
zzg113, on Jan 4 2005, 01:53 PM, said:
At a negligible rate.
Yeah, right. How many people on here are seeing 4% wage inflation.
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Yeah, right. How many people on here are seeing 4% wage inflation.
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I got 16% last July and my wife got 12% from Jan 1 this year. We have never got less than double the inflation rate, and neither have the friends of mine who are professionals. TO be frank if I was offered 3% I would laugh and hand in my notice as it is basically a pay cut in real terms!
#12 Guest_Charlie The Tramp_*
Posted 04 January 2005 - 02:42 PM
Gtr London FTB, on Jan 4 2005, 02:25 PM, said:
I got 16% last July and my wife got 12% from Jan 1 this year. We have never got less than double the inflation rate, and neither have the friends of mine who are professionals. TO be frank if I was offered 3% I would laugh and hand in my notice as it is basically a pay cut in real terms!
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Your very lucky, better keep it quite the Magician may be watching.
#13
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Posted 04 January 2005 - 02:48 PM
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I got 16% last July and my wife got 12% from Jan 1 this year. We have never got less than double the inflation rate, and neither have the friends of mine who are professionals.
What line of work are you/your friends in GLFTB?
Al Greenspan, who facilitated the birth of world-wide HPI with irrationally exuberant interest rates
mortgage
mortgage
#14
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Posted 04 January 2005 - 02:58 PM
zzg113, on Jan 4 2005, 03:48 PM, said:
What line of work are you/your friends in GLFTB?
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I'm in IT. My friends are in IT, Law & Accounting. We are all on performance based pay increases and unless you are under performing it is normal to get well above inflation increases.
#15
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Posted 04 January 2005 - 03:00 PM
Charlie The Tramp, on Jan 4 2005, 03:42 PM, said:
Nothing to do with luck, we just work hard that's all.