history repeats Posted November 22, 2004 Share Posted November 22, 2004 Wow, I love this website. I'm a first time buyer and cant/wont pay a kings ransom for a shoebox. What is fascinating about this website and all your posts is that it represents a microcosm of what is happening in current society, a polarization between the haves and the have-nots, the bulls and the bears. We have the Haves, in the red corner represented by estate agents and other vested interests and the in the blue corner we have have-nots represented by Mr. and Mrs. first time buyer and all the Jonny come lately's who have felt let down by this country and its obsession with making money out of housing. You only have to look at the tv every night, Location, location, location, changing rooms, How to make a million in property, there are loads of them. Well sod this. Round one. Ding Ding. I often quote the great tulip bubble story to my friends. For anyone that doesn’t know its when in the 1800's or sometime in the past in the Netherlands where the price of tulips got talked up to sky high prices before panic set in and everyone lost out. My father and others willing to listen go yes yes sonny all very good and patronize me with the experience in these matters but these people tend to be people with a vested interest in high house prices, such as my friend, Jon. He is currently eyeing up a 911 Carerra on the money he thinks he will make if he sells his house. They walk around with $ sign blinkers in front of there eyes… Money, yes bring it over here sonny yes ill have more of that… The only thing I ever remembered from school about economics was the capitalism was punctuated by series of boom and bust cycles. I quoted this to my friends during the tech bubble, I said don't bother buying last minute shares but they were to busy chomping at the bit like piranhas in a feeding frenzy. Oh how I chuckled quietly to myself when it all went tits up.. When will they learn? Then along comes the current housing crisis and I found myself in a bit of a pickle. Some friends about 4 years ago were saying Mike why are you renting when you can get your own home, I couldn't really afford it at the time as I had only just finished university. My friends went and bought their houses and fast forward a couple of years and I am feeling pretty left out and alienated that I didn't buy when I had the chance, how am I ever going to afford my own place? I kept asking myself. One thing has kept me going however and that is the seed of doubt in my mind that these prices could not continue forever. How can money come from thin air, it doesn't grow on trees, how can one thing one minute be worth 100k and then without doing anything its worth 200k. If someone makes 100k then someone surely someone must loose 100k. I'm no accountant, I cant even remember my times table but that seems a pretty good theory to me. I've have been spouting this bile to my friends for the last four years, they would rebuke me and cast me aside as someone who was just bitter and twisted that he failed to jump on the ladder when he had the chance but I have only just realized that I am not alone, I am with friends, I am a bear. Michael Bailey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boom'n'Bust Posted November 22, 2004 Share Posted November 22, 2004 welcome to HPC doggadogdog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patientFTB Posted November 22, 2004 Share Posted November 22, 2004 Welcome aboard Michael I suspect there are many bears on this site who wished they bought 4 years ago (even if they had to stretch themselves to do it) and then sold it recently - myself included. Retrospection is a wonderful thing... Have you noticed the brilliant bear articles in the news today? Chickens will be coming home to roost soon enough. Matt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted November 22, 2004 Share Posted November 22, 2004 The only thing I ever remembered from school about economics was the capitalism was punctuated by series of boom and bust cycles. I am glad you remembered that very important fact of Capitalism. Sadly 75% of the population don`t. Although their parents told them that money does not grow on trees, the good fairy told them different. Do stay with us, exciting events are taking place next year. This site will be the greatest economic education you can receive, and the posters are brilliant. BTW Charlie enjoys a nice sweet sherry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Who Knows Posted November 22, 2004 Share Posted November 22, 2004 Welcome - like you I have very little grounding in economics - my philosophy has always been save like mad during booms and use the cash in the recession that will inevitable follow. Sadly many do the exact opposite and it could all get very ugly in the months ahead ...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zzg113 Posted November 22, 2004 Share Posted November 22, 2004 http://www.dirtgardener.com/TipSheets/Bulbs/Tulipamiana.html A little background on Tulipomania. Now what does it remind me of.......? Fortunes were doubled in the blink of an eye. Poor men became rich, and rich men became filthy rich -- without doing a day's work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest muttley Posted November 22, 2004 Share Posted November 22, 2004 http://www.dirtgardener.com/TipSheets/Bulbs/Tulipamiana.htmlA little background on Tulipomania. Now what does it remind me of.......? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Here's a graph (and a few others) to go with that,zzg. Incidentally,I like the name of the website I found this on,www.prudentbear.com !!! We are not alone ! http://www.prudentbear.com/Bear%20Case%20L...mous_Manias.swf ://http://www.prudentbear.com/Bear%20C...Manias.swf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topher Bear Posted November 22, 2004 Share Posted November 22, 2004 Good 'ole prudentbear, used to be one of my regular websites during the dotcom boom/bust :-) another good one was www.fallstreet.com, but its gone pay only now. I was looking in the EA window this afternoon (yeah, see I do get out occasionally!) and looking at the prices for normal run of the mill bungalows and detached 3 & 4 bed houses. doing some quick mental calculations for normality (including typical salary round here for someone expecting to be able to afford such a house, a healthy deposit and a standard lending multiple, about 2.5x with a 30 - 40% deposit, as places like Halifax used to quote as being typical) and I reckon that they really are something like 60 - 70% overvalued!! I'm being reassured that we really are gonna see some hefty hefty falls, unless the money can come from somewhere else, ie big jump in inflation or wages! welcome michael, sound like a good honest bear who knows his house prices Topher Bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJG18 Posted November 22, 2004 Share Posted November 22, 2004 Welcome to the forum. Yes, Tulipmania is very interesting, and it's amazing that even after several hundred years people haven't learnt their lesson. At the height of the tulip bubble, a single tulip bulb was selling for what would be the equivilent of nearly £60,000 in todays money, and yet vested interests of the time were arguing that it was anew paradigm, that it was sustainable, and then when the rises slowed, began spouting what we now recognise as "soft-landing" theories. I've even heard modern day economists (very Bullish ones) saying that Tulip-mania was NOT a bubble, that it was sustainable and that it was only killed off by unpredicted negative external factors (in this case a sudden drop in foreign export demand of bulbs from Germany due to changing political/economic circumstances in the country). And unfortunately that is the sad truth. People never learn, even the so called experts. In 18 months time when we have sufferred the largest property price crash ever recorded in history, people like John Wrigglesworth will be standing amogst the carnage telling people that there was no bubblem prices were sustainable, if only the evil Mervyn King had not intervened in June 2004 with interest rate rises... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bull''s Advocate Posted November 22, 2004 Share Posted November 22, 2004 Do stay with us, exciting events are taking place next year. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Just a sec Charlie - I thought you agreed that a lot of people will be disappointed next year when things don't change as quickly as they hope. Now you're saying there will be exciting events! A few reports of minor falls, from a number of previously doubtful sources (according to the bears), seem to have induced some kind of general euphoria here on this forum in the last few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted November 22, 2004 Share Posted November 22, 2004 Just a sec Charlie - I thought you agreed that a lot of people will be disappointed next year when things don't change as quickly as they hope. Now you're saying there will be exciting events!<{POST_SNAPBACK}> In our economy and the global economy most certainly with many shocks. I have not said in any of my posts that exciting things are going to happen in the HM. I still believe we are in uncharted territory with the HM, and some will be disappointed that prices don`t fall as fast as they would like. I was not aware that I have been jumping up and down with joy the past few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
history repeats Posted December 5, 2008 Author Share Posted December 5, 2008 Made my first post 4 years ago. Back in those days you would be considered a nutcase for supporting house price crash. Oh how times have changed. Amazingly via the wonders of technology, house price crash keeps all old posts, I didn't think my mad ramblings would be still be here but they appear to be stored for all eternity. Do any other old school posters fancy bumping there first posts? One thing never changes, History Repeats and repeats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ken_ichikawa Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 Made my first post 4 years ago. Back in those days you would be considered a nutcase for supporting house price crash. Oh how times have changed. Amazingly via the wonders of technology, house price crash keeps all old posts, I didn't think my mad ramblings would be still be here but they appear to be stored for all eternity. Do any other old school posters fancy bumping there first posts? One thing never changes, History Repeats and repeats. Unfortunately "He who controls the present, controls the past. He who controls the past, controls the future" Anf Labour are re-writting history as we speak , al la the Blears the UK economy was in tatters when we came to power... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonpo Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 Made my first post 4 years ago. Back in those days you would be considered a nutcase for supporting house price crash. Do any other old school posters fancy bumping there first posts? One thing never changes, History Repeats and repeats. These days when everything is going down apart from Japanese Yen I sometimes think back to when the gears worked in reverse.... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...eaded&start= them were the days .... borrow in yen and invest it in the markets eh what fun the carry trade was back then... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elizabeth Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 Interesting post. Wecome. My problem is that knowing about the bust I never trusted to boom. Surely I would have liked it if I had bought in 2004 - but then I wouldn't have ate, used electricity or gas, washed... and as I grew smellier from not being able to afford the basic utilities, I would have been sacked and lost my home to an early repossession. Actually for the past couple of years before July people were asking my why I didn't buy. At first I told them I couldn't afford the negative equity - but then it got far too tense with the cold shoulders and frozen hatred glaring from their eyes. So I started telling them I couldn't afford to full stop. They then told me I was stupid and that there was always share ownership. Wow. Missed that boat. Tears pouring down my cheeks now... Had to quit recently due to bullying so really was very lucky I was listening to HPC not the morons at work with the vested interest in housing - not stuck and unable to move, not forced to keep a job that was torture becasue there was the morgage on a big lump of negative equity that nobody else wanted. Can just walk away with my life and my health to recover. However, next time I see the whole thing going a bit mad I am going to jump on the band wagon because next time I will understand that it is a boom and focus on the short term gains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 Made my first post 4 years ago. Back in those days you would be considered a nutcase for supporting house price crash. Oh how times have changed. Amazingly via the wonders of technology, house price crash keeps all old posts, I didn't think my mad ramblings would be still be here but they appear to be stored for all eternity. Do any other old school posters fancy bumping there first posts? One thing never changes, History Repeats and repeats. So did your friend sell their place and buy the 911? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i wanna house Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 I am with friends, I am a bear.Michael Bailey you certainly are .. I am a beer with a whisky chaser Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macfarlan Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 Welcome - like you I have very little grounding in economics - my philosophy has always been save like mad during booms and use the cash in the recession that will inevitable follow. Sadly many do the exact opposite and it could all get very ugly in the months ahead ...... Hmmm... I was brought up in a single parent house, we didn't have much money, ithe philosophy of being careful with money is embedded in my shyche, phsyce, phsyche/schycphe. It's second nature to me. Thank goodness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
history repeats Posted December 5, 2008 Author Share Posted December 5, 2008 So did your friend sell their place and buy the 911? ok history update,, I have been renting the past 4 years waiting for the crash. My friends all thing I am mad, my best friend didn't buy his 911 however he sold his 1st house and made approx 100 grand from the sale. He then went onto buy a detached house in nice quiet village in the midlands for 260k. At the moment he is sh1tting it becuase he has a big mortgage. Should of waited it out like me. You can take a horse to water but you can't make it drink or so im told. History repeats !!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry Jekyll Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 Wow, I love this website. I'm a first time buyer and cant/wont pay a kings ransom for a shoebox. What is fascinating about this website and all your posts is that it represents a microcosm of what is happening in current society, a polarization between the haves and the have-nots, the bulls and the bears. We have the Haves, in the red corner represented by estate agents and other vested interests and the in the blue corner we have have-nots represented by Mr. and Mrs. first time buyer and all the Jonny come lately's who have felt let down by this country and its obsession with making money out of housing. You only have to look at the tv every night, Location, location, location, changing rooms, How to make a million in property, there are loads of them. Well sod this. Round one. Ding Ding. I often quote the great tulip bubble story to my friends. For anyone that doesn’t know its when in the 1800's or sometime in the past in the Netherlands where the price of tulips got talked up to sky high prices before panic set in and everyone lost out. My father and others willing to listen go yes yes sonny all very good and patronize me with the experience in these matters but these people tend to be people with a vested interest in high house prices, such as my friend, Jon. He is currently eyeing up a 911 Carerra on the money he thinks he will make if he sells his house. They walk around with $ sign blinkers in front of there eyes… Money, yes bring it over here sonny yes ill have more of that… The only thing I ever remembered from school about economics was the capitalism was punctuated by series of boom and bust cycles. I quoted this to my friends during the tech bubble, I said don't bother buying last minute shares but they were to busy chomping at the bit like piranhas in a feeding frenzy. Oh how I chuckled quietly to myself when it all went tits up.. When will they learn? Then along comes the current housing crisis and I found myself in a bit of a pickle. Some friends about 4 years ago were saying Mike why are you renting when you can get your own home, I couldn't really afford it at the time as I had only just finished university. My friends went and bought their houses and fast forward a couple of years and I am feeling pretty left out and alienated that I didn't buy when I had the chance, how am I ever going to afford my own place? I kept asking myself. One thing has kept me going however and that is the seed of doubt in my mind that these prices could not continue forever. How can money come from thin air, it doesn't grow on trees, how can one thing one minute be worth 100k and then without doing anything its worth 200k. If someone makes 100k then someone surely someone must loose 100k. I'm no accountant, I cant even remember my times table but that seems a pretty good theory to me. I've have been spouting this bile to my friends for the last four years, they would rebuke me and cast me aside as someone who was just bitter and twisted that he failed to jump on the ladder when he had the chance but I have only just realized that I am not alone, I am with friends, I am a bear. Michael Bailey Welcome naive bear person, enjoy your time here. The rich get richer, that's all you need to know. Impoverished wanna be FTBs lurk here. As the UK economy slides to oblivion your dream of home ownership shrinks to nothing. String Gordon Brown from a lamp post but your dream home is still just that. You is f~cked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macfarlan Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 Welcome naive bear person, enjoy your time here. The rich get richer, that's all you need to know. Impoverished wanna be FTBs lurk here. As the UK economy slides to oblivion your dream of home ownership shrinks to nothing. String Gordon Brown from a lamp post but your dream home is still just that. You is f~cked. We is all f*ucked. Some more than others. Recent home buyers are especially, but all are all the same. Except maybe the really wealthy. I just realised tonight, that I as I almost but didn't buya house 18 months ago, I'm not as f*ucked as I would havebeen if I did. Even though I've been forcibly bent over, at least I didn't pull my pants down to allow for easy access first. I've still got my pants. That might become my motto. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Downtraded Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 Welcome naive bear person, enjoy your time here. The rich get richer, that's all you need to know. Impoverished wanna be FTBs lurk here. As the UK economy slides to oblivion your dream of home ownership shrinks to nothing. String Gordon Brown from a lamp post but your dream home is still just that. You is f~cked. So true. There are 3 rules to living well in this country. They are as follows: - You must at least earn in 3 months, what the average person earns in one year (after tax). - Each year, you must save what the average person earns in one year. - You must start doing this by the time you are 25, and continue to do so for 25 years. This is what I tell my kids. Better to be told early than find out the hard way - when its too late. Don't you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zebbedee Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 just bitter and twisted that he failed to jump on the ladder when he had the chance I can't remember who it was but someone on the site said, to paraphrase, "sometimes it's good fortune to miss the boat, think of the Titanic" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 (edited) Made my first post 4 years ago. Back in those days you would be considered a nutcase for supporting house price crash. Oh how times have changed. Amazingly via the wonders of technology, house price crash keeps all old posts, I didn't think my mad ramblings would be still be here but they appear to be stored for all eternity. Do any other old school posters fancy bumping there first posts? ...../ My very first post: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...amp;#entry31594 My 6th ever post: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...amp;#entry32095 My impassioned pleas to FTBs not to be drawn into the World's Biggest EVER Pyramid Scam - i.e. "housing market" - way back in Summer of 2005..... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...=12762&st=0 PS: What I find quite interesting is that I definetly knew of many people who - even back then in 2004/5 - were finding it very, very difficult to actually SELL their properties.......... The idea that all was rosy until August 2007 is a myth imho....... Edited December 6, 2008 by eric pebble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Lorne Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 I can't remember who it was but someone on the site said, to paraphrase, "sometimes it's good fortune to miss the boat, think of the Titanic" ...true ...because he had a cold Waylon Jennings missed the plane that took down Buddy Holly.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.