Chinese Economic Growth Continues To Slow

[Sancho Panza]

Business Insider 16/4/14

' China's Q1 GDP beat expectations rising 7.4% year-over-year. Economists polled by Bloomberg were looking for Q1 GDP to rise 7.3%. But this was down from 7.7% the previous quarter, showing that China's economy continues to slow.

Quarter-over-quarter however GDP was up 1.4% or 5.7% annualized. This was also slower than revised 1.7% growth in Q4 2013 and 7% annualized.

Meanwhile, year-to-date Chinese retail sales were up 12%, beating expectations for an 11.9% rise. For March, retail sales were up 12.2%.

Industrial production was up 8.8% in March, below expectations for a 9% rise.

Year-to-date fixed asset investment was up 17.6%, missing expectations for an 18% rise.

This of course come on the back of slower credit growth, disappointing trade data, and producer prices that were down for the 25th straight quarter.

"Data released today displayed some moderate improvement in March, but the improvement is not big enough to deliver an around 7.5% growth target for the whole year," Bank of America's Ting Lu said in a note to clients.

"So we expect Beijing to implement its mini-stimulus—some small-scale growth supportive measures focusing on fiscal spending in social housing, urban infrastructure and central & western region infrastructure. Despite the falling M1 and M2 yoy growth, we believe the PBoC won't cut RRR in the near term on low interbank rates."

In a previous note, Ting had attributed slower growth to Beijing's crackdown on pollution and corruption, and the "lagged impact of rising CNY and rates in 2H13 and government's efforts in controlling local government debt and some shadow banking practice."

Investors are again beginning to worry about a Chinese hard landing, which is four straight quarter of below 5% growth.

China has set a growth target of 7.5% and economists think the government has a floor of 7%. China's Labor Ministry says 7.5% growth generates 10 million jobs and that growth below 7% could cause high unemployment.'

China New Credit Declines as Money-Supply Growth Decelerates

'China’s broadest measure of new credit fell 19 percent from a year earlier and money supply grew at the slowest pace on record, underscoring risks of a deeper slowdown as the government tries to curb financial dangers. Aggregate financing was 2.07 trillion yuan ($333 billion) in March, the People’s Bank of China said in Beijing today, down from 2.55 trillion yuan a year ago. M2, China’s broadest gauge of money supply, rose 12.1 percent from a year earlier, compared with the 13 percent median estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg News survey and 13.3 percent in February.

Policy makers are trying to rein in a credit binge and prevent defaults from spurring broader financial turmoil, while meeting a target for economic expansion of about 7.5 percent this year. The State Council earlier this month outlined what some analysts have dubbed a “mini-stimulus” package of railway spending and tax relief, with first-quarter growth projected to be the slowest since 2009 in a report due tomorrow.

“Deleveraging will for sure help China’s long-term growth, but the pressing issue for now is to handle the deceleration in economic growth,” said Li Wei, a Shanghai-based economist at Standard Chartered Plc. “That’s why monetary policy has to be more flexible.” Authorities may lower banks’ reserve requirements in May to send a clearer signal that they will ensure expansion, he said.'

Edited April 16, 2014 by Sancho Panza